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September 25, 2009 04:26 PM UTC

Uh, About That Poll...

  • 28 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Yesterday we talked briefly about a new poll from the GOP-leaning Tarrance Group, which made representations about the mood of Coloradans regarding key races and state issues. We found the poll most interesting because it indicated a majority of Colorado voters–with a higher percentage in the arch-conservative Colorado Springs area–would support repealing the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR).

But as the Denver Post reports today, there’s something else about this poll you should probably be aware of:

A new group headed by Republican operative Sean Tonner released a poll Thursday that should make gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis happy.

The poll, which showed former U.S. Rep. McInnis with a sizable lead over his opponents for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, also asked questions about education, taxes and other issues (of note, a majority of respondents favored overturning the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, or TABOR amendment). The poll of 500 likely registered voters was conducted Sept. 16-17 and released Thursday.

Tonner’s name surfaced this year when McInnis, who was drumming up support for his run, left a voice message for someone saying, “We’ve got Sean Tonner on board . . . Sean’s doing our 5, our, ah, 527.” [Pols emphasis]

Candidates and their committees are barred by law from collaborating with 527s – another type of political group named for its IRS code – on campaign messages and how money is spent…

Tonner said neither his group, Colorado Policy Institute, nor the poll is about helping McInnis’ campaign…

We would have suggested modifying the plan for “our 527” after Tonner’s name was broadcast to everybody in Colorado in that oh-so regrettable voicemail. Maybe find somebody else to answer the phones at the “Colorado Policy Institute?” Since, people are kind of, you know, on to you? Doesn’t matter if this poll is rock-solid, how do you deal with everybody coming to a full stop at “consider the source?” Heck, why should we talk about this poll at all, when it’s much more fun to revisit Tonner, McInnis and that terribly embarrassing voicemail?

Much like McInnis’ drive-time radio freakout, or snubbing his own party’s biggest annual function, he seems to have no clue how bad this looks–what the long-term credibility consequences are. Hint: hurts worse than the poll helps, guys.

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28 thoughts on “Uh, About That Poll…”

  1. Perhaps we should wait for a more ‘scientific’ poll with similar results. The one thing Republicans know is that an anti-TABOR ballot initiative that fails will only help strengthen it’s existence.

    It is a strong argument when you can say “The People have approved this time and time again”.

    I would not put it past the Republicans to publish a fallacious study in order to get a doomed anti-TABOR initiative on the ballot.

    We can only hope these results are accurate and TABOR can finally be brought down.  

    1. You mean like Andrew Romanoff’s ballot initiative last year? You’re suggesting it was a stealth move to strengthen support for TABOR and cement it forever in the constitution?  

      1. I never said that all failed attempts at getting rid of TABOR are sponsored by republicans. That is ridiculous.

        But, I am saying Romanoff’s attempt in the end gave more political firepower to TABOR supporters. People in general are skeptical of polls. So if you say to them, “Forget what the polls say, the people of Colorado have already proclaimed their support of TABOR”, it carries more weight than a poll that only surveys 500 people.

        Romanoff’s attempt, while noble in my eyes, was a huge gamble and we lost.  

  2. In to a land of coordination.  McInnis gets caught red handed on his plan to use Sean Tonner and his minions — yes, that means you, Monica — to launder Phil Anschutz’s money through a 527:

    Not only does McInnis flip the bird to anyone who questions this as plain and simple coordination, he attends fundraisers hosted by Sean Tonner’s employee, Monica Owens:

    http://www.politicswest.com/43…

    What the hell am I missing here?  These guys are breaking the law, plain and simple.  And they’e using Joe Nacchio’s boss’s money to do it.

        1. Title: Microsoft Word – CPI Poll – September 24 2009.docx

          Author: ToddHager

          Created: 9/23/3009 3:49.55 PM

          Modified: 9/23/3009 3:49.55 PM

          I don’t have a PDF of the McInnis presser.  If someone will post a link, I’ll check the timestamp on that.

          2. Here’s the release (with timestamp) Josh Green e-mailed out yesterday:

            From: “Joshua Green” press@scottmcinnisforgovernor.com

            Date: September 24, 2009 2:29:23 PM MDT

            To: Media List

            Subject: Scott McInnis Press Release

            For Immediate Release:                                                                                Contact:  Sean Duffy

            09-24

            09                                                                                                                                                                                                                        303-918-9049

            Scott McInnis Leads GOP Race By 28 Points in New Scientific Poll

            National Tarrance Group Numbers Show McInnis at 40-12 Over Opponent

            ( DENVER ) – Scott McInnis has a wide lead of 28 points over Josh Penry in a head-to- head scientific poll that also shows only one-third of percent of Coloradans prepared to re-elect Gov. Bill Ritter.  

            The independent poll, conducted by the Virginia-based Tarrance Group and released by the Colorado Policy Institute, showed McInnis with a 40 to 12 lead on Penry among likely Republican primary voters.

            “These numbers track with what other scientific polls have shown:  our campaign is the solid choice among Colorado Republican primary voters,” McInnis said.  “We have the positive message about how to create jobs and repair the economy – and the momentum to continue to carry us forward.”  

            The Tarrance Group poll also showed continuing anemic re-election numbers for Gov. Ritter, with 33 percent of likely voters saying that they would support him for a new term, while 56 percent said they would prefer to give a new person a chance at leading the state.

            “Coloradans know that Bill Ritter has chased jobs out of our state in the midst of very tough economic times, while raising taxes and fees on Colorado families and businesses,”  McInnis said.  “This poll, combined with other scientific polls showing me as the only GOP candidate beating Bill Ritter, shows that we are in a very strong position – and getting stronger.”  

            # # #

            Any member of the media who received the e-mail from Josh Green at 2:29 pm yesterday can verify this.  

  3. Let’s go to the transcript to see exactly what Congressman McInnis said about his relationship with CPI’s Director, Monica Owens:

    WANNA VISIT WITH YOU ON THIS TWO-THOUSAND-AND-TEN GOVERNOR’S RACE…

    I’M GONNA RUN FOR GOVERNOR, WE’VE GOT A GREAT TEAM ON-BOARD, WE’RE PICKING UP A LOT OF SUPPORT, I KNOW YOU HEAR THAT, BUT THE FACT IS UHH, FROM CANDIDATES, BUT THE FACT IS WE REALLY HAVE. IT’S GOING VERY WELL.

    WE’VE GOT SEAN TONNER ON BOARD, BARB CARD ON BOARD, SHE’S DOIN’ OUR FINANCE, SEAN’S DOIN’ OUR 5-UH….(COUGH) OR A-527, MIKE HESSE IS, UH, DOIN’ OUR DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONS, WE’VE GOT BARB McTURK ON OUR VOLUNTEER ORGANIZATIONS,

    WE’VE GOT LOTS OF SUPPORT IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY, LOTS OF SUPPORT IN THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY, LOTS OF SUPPORT FROM, UH, THE LEGISLATIVE ARENA, ESPECIALLY FORMER LEGISLATORS, AND SO ON AND SO FORTH,

    ANYWAY, I WANTED TO CALL YOU UP, I’D LIKE TO GET SOME UH INPUT FROM YA, SOME COUNSEL FROM YA, UMMM, WE’VE GOT A LOT OF MOMENTUM GOING OUR WAY, WE KNOW IT’S UH, HISTORICALLY, UHH COLORADO’S ONLY THROWN OUT TWO INCUMBENTS, BUT UH WE’VE BEEN OUT IN THE FIELD, WE’VE DONE EXTENSIVE POLLING, UH THIS GUY’S BEATABLE, I CAN BEAT HIM,

    UH I FEEL VERY GOOD, BUT YOU’RE ONE OF THE PEOPLE, ONE OF WHAT I CALL MY “TOP 50” THAT I REALLY NEEDED TO CALL AND LET YOU KNOW WHAT I’M DOING, AND CERTAINLY WOULD LIKE TO HAVE YOUR SUPPORT, THAT’D BE VERY IMPORTANT, AND UH I’D BE HAPPY TO GO OVER SOME OF THE OTHER PEOPLE SUPPORTING US,

    AND SO ON INCLUDING THE UH, UH THE ALLARDS, THE CAMPBELLS, UH, SEAN TONNER (CONNECTED US?)…, UH, MONICA OWENS IN FACT, UH AND FRANCES OWENS, UH MONICA IS WORKING FOR US, UH THROUGH SEAN TONNER, THAT’S BILL OWENS’ DAUGHTER, AND THEN UH, OF COURSE, FRANCES, HIS UH, WIFE, UHH IS ON-BOARD ON AS WELL, VERY AGGRESSIVELY ON BOARD,

    I MEAN WE’VE GOT A GREAT TEAM PUT TOGETHER, SO IF YOU GET A CHANCE, GIVE ME A CALL, I’D SURE LIKE TO VISIT WITH YA…303-XXX-XXXX. THANKS. BYE-BYE.

    END OF MESSAGE.

    2. If this is 100% accurate, and that’s a big if as it’s posted by TCG.

      First, McInnis says “uh” way too much for a professional politician. Especially for a canned message.

      Second, I’m not sure what he said clearly states there’s coordination. Saying someone is on-board could be construed as saying they support him – even if they do so independently.

      Like most of you I assume that there is coordination (which is illegal) based on the above. But it may not be viewed as clear evidence in a court of law.

      1. David, you can listen to the recording yourself and judge the accuracy of the transcript.

        And saying these consultants are “on board” isn’t the clearest evidence of coordination.

        Saying, “SEAN’S DOIN’ OUR 5-UH….(COUGH) OR A-527,” is.

  4. The campaign clearly sent out the release the day after…You are a complete idiot.

    And the firm they used is respected by both sides of the aisle.  

    I bet that the information on Bennet/Romo is dead on.  So is Tabor.  So is our beloved Gov.

    Get over all of this…it’s all real.

    1. I am convinced you must be a troll for Mike Hutner and the Democrats.

      Nobody in their right mind would think attacking McInnis or Monica Owens in the way you have would actually help Josh.

      You are doing more harm to Mr. Penry’s chances than anyone else on this site, stupid move.

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