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February 09, 2010 11:20 AM UTC

Winners and Losers from Q4 (2009) Fundraising Period

  • 47 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

The money is in the bank from the Q4 fundraising period (well, unless you’re Scott Gessler, that is, so it’s time again to present our Winners & Losers from the last quarter of 2009.

 

WINNERS

Sen. Michael Bennet (D)

One year ago, many voters in Colorado were still trying to figure out who Bennet was, let alone why he was suddenly a U.S. Senator. But regardless of your opinion on how he has been in his first year in the Senate, Colorado has rarely seen a candidate with the kind of fundraising ability that Bennet possesses. Bennet has raised more than a million dollars in every quarter he has been in the Senate, and his $3,482,581 cash on hand is nearly $3 million dollars more than the next closest competitor, Republican Jane Norton ($595,563).

Bennet’s fundraising advantage over every one of his opponents, on both sides of the aisle, could become significant after the next fundraising quarter ends in March. If Bennet is still this far ahead of everyone else in April, a lot of national observers are going to start looking elsewhere for better pick-up opportunities in November, and the well for Democrat Andrew Romanoff is going to go bone-dry.

Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CD7)

Ever since Perlmutter was first elected in 2006, he has been one of the top fundraisers in Colorado. Perlmutter was the only member of Colorado’s congressional delegation, in either party, to finish 2009 with more than $1 million in cash on hand. That kind of fundraising prowess is why Republicans have always been reluctant to seriously challenge Perlmutter, and as long as it continues, Republican opponents Ryan Frazier and Lang Sias won’t get a lot of attention from the NRCC in Washington.

Jane Norton (R), U.S. Senate

Norton still trails Bennet by almost $3 million, but she’s a Q4 winner because she was the only Republican Senate candidate to show an ability to raise real money. Norton’s $550,605 in Q4 leaves her with $595,563 cash on hand.

Rep. John Salazar (D-CD3)

Rep. Betsy Markey (D-CD4)

Both Salazar and Markey represent districts that are traditionally Republican areas, and both have to raise a lot of money to fend off opponents in 2010. While neither Salazar ($187,160) nor Markey ($227,442) had particularly impressive quarters, they both ended the year with a lot of coin in the bank ($847,099 for Salazar and $869,217 for Markey).

Cory Gardner (R), CD-4

After a lackluster Q3, Gardner did much better in Q4 in raising $197,553 to give him a total cash on hand amount of $383,338. Now, if only Gardner could stop shooting himself in the foot, perhaps Republicans might feel better about his chances and wouldn’t be encouraging Senate candidate Ken Buck to enter the GOP primary.

State Treasurer Cary Kennedy (D)

Kennedy raised $70,734 in Q4, leaving her with $173,674 cash on hand to begin the year. Considering that her leading Republican opponent, Walker Roberts Stapleton raised $65,435 with a nationwide network of donors, Kennedy’s Q4 is all the more impressive.

Ryan Frazier (R), CD-7

Frazier had a strong Q4, raising $218,824 to leave him with $280,355 cash on hand. Those numbers would mean more if Rep. Ed Perlmutter didn’t already have $1 million in the bank, and if Frazier didn’t have a tough primary ahead, but it still qualifies as a good quarter.

LOSERS

Scott Gessler (R), Secretary of State

For years Gessler has been the go-to guy for the Republican Party on all manner of election-related legal issues. But for a man who knows a lot about election law, Gessler is bafflingly ignorant of what it takes to be a successful candidate himself.

After one year as a candidate, Gessler has shown himself to be completely fiscally incompetent, spending an unheard-of 86% of every dollar he raises. He’s done a decent job of fundraising, coaxing $86,799 out of donors, but he now has only $12,231 cash on hand. Incumbent Democrat Bernie Buescher, meanwhile, has raised $92,921 and has $65,043 cash on hand (spending only 30% of his contributions). The early fundraising periods are always ripe for picking low-hanging fruit, so Gessler will now need to figure out a way to increase his contributions significantly while also explaining to donors why he’s managed to piss away nearly 9 out of every 10 dollars he’s raised.

Andrew Romanoff (D), U.S. Senate

Ken Buck, (R), U.S. Senate

We discussed the fundraising problems for Romanoff and Buck at length last week. To recap: neither candidate had a very strong showing in the last quarter, and unless they can each raise at least a million dollars in the next three months, it’s hard to see how they will be able to afford to both keep a viable campaign running and save enough money to have a good ad buy on television.

Things are worse for Buck than for Romanoff, because the Republican raised a miserable $39,850 in Q4. There aren’t many candidates for Congress who did that poorly.

Tom Lucero (R), CD-4

Lucero ended Q4 with $6,424 cash on hand. Granted, he paid for a small TV ad buy, but numbers this bad should all but end any hope Lucero might have had. Raising just $25,824 is a terrible quarter for any candidate for Congress, let alone someone running in a tough GOP primary.  

NOT A WINNER, BUT NOT A LOSER, EITHER

Tom Wiens (R), U.S. Senate

Wiens “raised” $728,418 in his first quarter as a candidate, but we use the word “raised” very loosely. Roughly 88% of that $728k came from Wiens himself, either in the form of a hefty campaign loan of $540k or direct personal donations of $101,250. All together, Wiens only actually received $87,169 in individual contributions from people not named “Tom Wiens.”

But on the other hand, the money all spends the same, regardless of where it comes from. Entering 2010 with $540,132 cash on hand makes Wiens a real contender to challenge Norton for the Republican nomination…so long as he figures out a way to continue to increase his campaign coffers, one way or the other.

Scott McInnis (R), Governor

McInnis had a good quarter of fundraising, bringing in $479,575 in total contributions. But he also spent a lot of money ($350,510), leaving him with a pretty weak net profit for the quarter. McInnis has a total of $490,464 cash on hand, which is good but not likely to be enough to out-raise Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, who has always been a prolific fundraiser. You would think McInnis could have capitalized more in Q4 after ousting Josh Penry from the GOP field and while he was still able to run against Gov. Bill Ritter, who has since announced he won’t run again in 2010.

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47 thoughts on “Winners and Losers from Q4 (2009) Fundraising Period”

  1. The only thing I would say is that Wiens’ $$ isn’t as good as it sounds.  It’s true, as you say, that “it all spends the same,”  but his name ID is non-existent compared to Norton among primary voters, and whatever he’s spending money on, it isn’t fixing that problem.  He can give himself millions more, but unless he puts out a massive ad-buy, he’s toast.  Norton’s primary to lose.

    Also, you were probably too kind to Romanoff & Buck, but I can see how a political blog would want to keep the fires stoked with potential story lines.  I don’t blame you.  But the fact is, neither of them will come anywhere close to winning their parties’ nominations.

  2. In the Denver Post today.

    During his first year in Congress, Boulder’s Jared Polis showed he could raise money like a House veteran, writing checks for fellow freshmen representatives at a rate that rivals the fundraising clout of even Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

    Read more: http://www.denverpost.com/fron…

    Pretty impressive. I was the first to come down on Polis for the way he’s handled health care but this is great news.  

    1. Thanks for that link. I can’t help but chuckle a little when I read this:

      “It’s an important part of growing a career as a leader here in Washington, D.C., to help establish these ties across the country and build a stronger network to deploy on behalf of Colorado,” he said.

      The Colorado delegation, with three freshmen, is “very junior” in terms of experience in Washington, Polis said. “What we don’t have in years, we need to make up in activity and fundraising and networking.”

      Nice to see that Polis gets it. Since Romanoff hates PACs and out of state money, I’m guessing he would disapprove of accepting a donation and would heartily frown on Polis’s view of how politics in Colorado works.

        2. Change hat Works  scheuled a debate between Romanoff and SenBennet on a day they wrre told up front that Sen Benent coulld not attend.

          Rep.Polis is a very good  congressman in my opinion.

      1. I’ve been in the political world for some time now. In fact we’ve likely met but that’s for another time. So yes, I still stand by my statement because I have been saying it in many circles.  

  3. which, I suppose, is a mercy considering the numbers. Saw three anti-Tancredo letters in today’s Post with no letters of support on his embarrassing performance at the Tea Party convention yet he always got a huge majority of the vote as does any R who runs here. Too bad so many in CD6 just automatically go for R in the House race without a second thought.  

    1. Although come to think of it, I haven’t seen him here much lately. Could it just be possible he’s out raising money and actually talking to voters?

      What did Flerlage raise? Do you know?

      1. Total raised approx:  55,000

        More than Canter, way more than Eng.

        Not enough to be competitive.

        Maybe it’s because 15%+ came from PACs and that’s scaring away the potential individual donors.  Maybe not.

        1. Yeah, that would be a sweet amount if he were running for the State House but for a congressional seat? Yikes.

          I think people aren’t contributing for several reasons–I’ll suggest two:

          1. They are waiting to see if this a serious candidate that can run a viable campaign and be a competitive opponent.

          2. Registration numbers in this district overwhelmingly favor Republicans making this a district where Democrats are not going to find a pick up for 2010.  

          1. People don’t know that he exists. Money is a chicken and egg thing.  You need the money to raise your profile and you need the profile to raise the money.  

            If you are in a district considered a no hoper, national money in the quantities required isn’t coming your way.  But Flerlage is doing all he can with what he’s got.  Is having house parties, attending meetings and events and has a small number of volunteers making calls.  That’s another problem.  It’s really hard to get volunteers for an unknown candidate in a lesser race competing with the better known races; Senate and Governor.  

            It has nothing to do with people being scared away by PAC money, such as it is.  See the Bennet numbers.  It’s the usual CD6 problem and won’t be solved until circumstances conspire to allow some Dem to battle through to a close loss (dead girl, live boy or huge financial scandal would be helpful here) and we get targeted next time. There will be no pot of gold at the end of redistricting either.

            1. We couldn’t generate dollars from outside the district and particularly from the DCCC until we finally had a candidate in 2006 that proved this district had a real possibility for turnover. Once Angie proved we could be competitive, it opened the door for Markey in 2008 for funding.

              Glad to hear Flerlage is out doing what he can. This is a tough district and the registration numbers aren’t promising.  

          2. 1. is a chicken & egg thing, like BC says.

            2. Is not as clear as it used to be.

            Total voters 533,000

            Active R 198,000

            Active U 130,000

            Active D 124,000

            Clearly, most of the U’s have voted R, but if it’s only a numbers game, why bother to run at all? Seriously.

            It would be a big upset for a D to win. But I’ve no sense that the recent D candidates even have a plan. With the right kind of campaign plan, I believe a candidate would experience better fundraising and could create at least the perception of viability.

        2. …and I think he’ll be able to turn it on this quarter.

          He’s a military guy – he builds the logistical base before he starts the assault. I know he’s got a big volunteer base, and he’s done all the right things in terms of meeting with the voters.

          We’ll see…

          1. He’s done all the right things, and has key demographic groups on his side.  I don’t know why the CO Dems don’t help him out more — I think it is a crime.  We came out for Markey who is in a comparable district, and now I am not convinced she is a strong Dem. Flerlage thinks like a Dem and wins over Republicans and independents alike.  He is the one that could win CD6 if only others would get behind him in big enough numbers.

            Wish I had cash.

            : (

            1. and a retired Lt. Col with a 22 year career in Marines. Military background really helped Joe Rice win and hold HD38 here in CD6. So did very close loss by Jared Ingwalson in SD26 (mainly overlaps HD38) in the election prior to Joe’s first win.  That got HD38 targeted and ready for Rice to make history.  

              Joe got to talk with and get support from Vets groups and others that normally support Rs. Flerlage has the same great cross-over potential but there is no way to turn a Republican-since-inception CD without lots of bucks. So all who dream of another upset, please pony up.  Somebody some day will be the first to get close, followed by somebody some day winning. It could even be the same person giving it a second try.  

            2. “…He is the one that could win CD6 if only others would get behind him in big enough numbers.”

              If by get behind him you mean donate to and eventually vote for, well yeah, that is how a candidate wins.  

              A year ago  I asked him what he was budgeting for the campaign and he dodged the question neatly telling me it would be an issues and ideas campaign.

              At the time, I estimated he’d need at least 1.5 – 2million for a media campaign that would start this summer.  More would be better.  He doesn’t have it- and I’m skeptical it’s coming.

              1. until it doesn’t.”

                Early in the 2008 election cycle, my sister confidently predicted that Hillary would win the primary, and then lose to McCain in the general. I doubt she even remembers making that prediction now, because we tend to remember what reinforces our assumptions, rather than what has undermined them.

                One thing I’ve learned is that the unexpected, even the phenomenally unexpected, happens with rather surprising frequency.

                More to the point, I think we’re far better off working toward desired ends, even when the odds of success seem poor, than predicting undesired ends because the likelihood accords with our comfortable, even when perfectly rational, assumptions.

                The outcome doesn’t benefit from our predictions, it benefits from our efforts.

                2. had tons of money, as much name rec as God and maintained a fighting chance for a long, long time. I hardly see a comparison to the Flerlage situation there.  

                  1. It was a more-or-less random example of how we habitually predict the future, and place great faith in the likelihood of our predictions, while in reality the future unfolds independently of our predictions.

                    Certainly, differences in probability matter, though even highly improbable events occur all the time. (Take winning the lottery, for example. Any one individual’s chances are extremely remote, and yet people keep on winning it). My point wasn’t about relative probability, but rather about the relative values of prediction and action.

                    As someone who wants to see John win, I will keep repeating that prediction is one thing, and working toward desired ends, even improbable ones, is another. Creating an echo chamber about the improbability of a particular candidate winning, and adversely affecting that probability by doing so, is, in my opinion, counter-productive if that candidate’s victory is your desired end. The world doesn’t benefit from predictions about elections that will occur and have results of one kind or another. It does benefit from actions which affect the outcomes in desired ways.

                    1. And have already contributed and volunteered in various ways and will continue to do so.

                      There are plenty of good reasons to vote for a first class candidate like John Flerlage who really would be a Rep. we could all be proud of.  For me, though, every Dem candidate so unselfish as to be willing to run here, sacrificing so much, working so hard, with so little promise of reward to carry the banner for CD6 Dems deserves all the support we have to give. We owe them big time.

                      I hope Dems all over the state will be generous to the Flerlage campaign, http://www.FlerlageforCongress.com

      1. I know that Perlmutter is the favorite, but does anyone else think this could be a major upset waiting to happen? I have heard of some polling that puts Frazier neck and neck with Perlmutter.

        All the elements are there:

        – An incumbent in the same party as a President who is half-way through his first term, at a time when poeple’s contempt for Congress is at an all time high.  

        – A challenger who has the ability to appeal to a broader group of people than the usual R’s.

        – And a district with a voter registration advantage for the challenger.

        Any takers?

        1. I checked out his “issues” site, and he sounds exactly like any other brainless Republian candidate. His position on health care is, “My focus is on making healthcare more affordable and accessible to all Americans.”

          For free! And a pony!

          1. Keep dreaming, Frazier has no chance whatsoever.

            Furthermore, to your point sxp151 it is interesting to see Republican candidates attempt to appear like they care about health care but have no concrete ideas on how to bring down costs while also extending coverage to the uninsured.

            The Obama health care session with the R’s should be entertaining to say the least.

        2. Without a strong base in Jefferson County, where the majority of the voters live. For a Republican candidate to beat Perlmutter, they probably have to come from the western side of the district. Frazier doesn’t have a big enough base in Aurora, which is only partially in CD-7.

        3. But it should help Frazier raise name recognition and good will within his own party since he stepped out of the other race and hopped over the the CD race as the sacrificial lamb. I think he has a very real future in the party; he just needs to aim a little lower for his first outing.

          And you know how things work around here, Aggie–if you are going to claim some good poll numbers, you need to post them with a link, even if they are coming from inside Frazier’s camp. False claims don’t get you nothing but disrespect around here.  

          1. RG, thanks for the voter reg update, I must say that I am little surprised.

            MOR,I agree with you.  I think that this is saying in the D column.  If I could post those poll numbers I would.  Right now its just hearsay.

            My comment was mostly based on the fact that Perlmutter was outraised this quarter. But why? (not a rhetorical question)  

            1. Frazier stepped out of the Senate race in early October and into CD6, helping to clear the field for Norton. I think Republicans gave heavily as a sort of thank you to Frazier for stepping up for his party. And I have to wonder if some of those contributions in the 4th quarter were originally for his Senate race and he rolled them over into his CD6 race.

              And let’s get real here, Aggie–to say he outraised Perlmutter is a bit of an overstatement. We are talking about $2000 not $10 grand or $20 grand. Two thousand–one large primary donor contribution is what that boils down to.  

              1. I think that is totally plausible.  

                I know the amount is slight, but it was surprising that it was even close.  I never meant that he blew him out of the water, just that it was a real surprise. That can’t continue if Perlmutter wants to glide to another easy win.  

              2. Frazier was rewarded for stepping aside, and Buck, most pointedly, was penalized for standing his ground against Norton.

                And Aggie’s right, it was a feat outraising Perlmutter, but that’s all it was.

  5. Wiens raising <100K from other sources isn’t coing to cut it UNLESS he can keep bankrolling himself — but does anyone know (a) if this past quarter’s several hundred thousand is ALL he can afford to bankroll, or (b) if he has millions more he can self-finance?  If (a), he’s done; if (b), then unless Norton picks up the pace, couldn’t Wiens pick up Buck’s conservative support if Buck drops out or just goes nowhere?

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