March 15, 2010 06:49 PM UTC

PPP: Norton Leading GOP Senate Race with 34%

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• by: roguestaffer

(As we’ve said before, folks, hypothetical general election matchups don’t mean squat until we get through a primary. It doesn’t matter how Bennet or Romanoff would do against Norton, Wiens or Buck, because only two of these candidates can make it to November. – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Full summary from PPP:

In the Republican Senate race Jane Norton leads with 34% to 17% for Ken Buck, 7% for Tom Wiens, and 10% combined for the rest of the field. There are more Republican primary voters who dislike Norton than there are Democrats who dislike either Bennet or Romanoff. Her favorability stands at 41/26. She leads Buck 39-7 with moderates, but by a much narrower 34-21 with conservatives. Given the quarter of GOP primary voters who dislike Norton and the tepid support for her from some voters on the right is Colorado a state where a Tea Party sort of candidate could become a third major candidate this fall and prove to be a spoiler? That would be interesting.

It’s too early to completely write off Buck or Wiens because neither is particularly well known right now. 62% of primary voters have no opinion about Buck and 67% are ambivalent toward Wiens. If they have the resources to become better known their support will improve but 17 points is still a lot to make up. (emphasis added)

Good point about resource management – if that is the question, then Buck is at a disadvantage, though 27 points is an even taller hill to climb. This likely explains the early independent expenditures against Norton.

The full memo is here (PDF).