March 30, 2010 06:20 PM UTC

What to expect from Fundraising this Quarter

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• by: SheepskinStrutt

(We’ll promote any diary that uses “pecuniary paucity” in a sentence. – promoted by Colorado Pols)

With campaign filings due to start trickling in this week, I’ve compiled a brief synopsis of my take on the different Senate campaigns and what is needed to impress both their respective parties and Colorado voters.

 

Michael Bennet

Frankly, Bennet has blown everyone, even some backers in his own party, away so far with his fundraising ability, and this quarter should be no different. Buoyed by a visit from the President, and with the onus of healthcare repartee seemingly lifted off the freshman’s shoulders as far as proving himself in the Senate, expect somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million. I would consider anything less a minor disappointment.  Of course, it’s far too early to apotheosize him, but he’s been far stronger than I expected.

Andrew Romanoff

I think most of us are in agreement that this is where the rubber meets the road for AR. He’s shown the grassroots are behind him (as he predicted ad nauseum), he’s proven himself to be a superior debater, and his campaign inarguably has more than a modicum of momentum heading into the spring. Half a million dollars seems like the baseline for what would allow him to continue treading  the financial waters, with any more being a positive sign that the fundraising gap could close. However, Bennet’s war chest grows bigger by the hour…

Jane Norton

As the only Republican who has shown any ability whatsoever to fundraise, Norton doesn’t have the pressure of Buck or Romanoff, but she indubitably has more pressure than Bennet. In my estimates, her campaign has put up a pair of good numbers so far, slightly besting her Q3 totals to end with just a sliver over 1 million raised. With the prospect of a possibly longer primary than anticipated, she will have to demonstrate strength this quarter, with 650k seeming like a solid growth in the affirmative from last quarter.

Ken Buck

The time has come, to be slightly vulgar, to either shit or get off the pot. With an embarrassingly low 40k in Q4, Buck has to put himself within reach of Norton this time around, especially after a somewhat strong showing at caucuses, but needs to be translated into actual, what’s the term, dammit…oh! Money! if he wants to stay in this race. Oh, and ad spots/finances from PACs can give you a bit of a boon in a primary, and he has certainly been kept in the running partially from such groups, but watch for that to fall if his funds in actual CO start to drop. I predict his financial nadir is not far off. Anything under 350k would, if you’ll forgive me for being hackneyed, put the nail in the coffin.

Tom Wiens

Pride, they say, is the sin from which all others arise, and given Tom’s shady background, that certainly appears to be the case here. Wiens seems wholeheartedly intent on playing spoiler for Mr. Buck, and pecuniary paucity seems to be no problem for him. He’ll dump in some more money to supplement the 700k of his own funds he’s already “invested” in the campaign, and increasing his campaign subsidy only splits the anti-Norton vote. I’d be incredibly surprised if his actual fundraising breaks six digits.

Like it or not, you still need money to run for an office of this magnitude. The trend doesn’t seem to be ebbing anytime soon, and it’s a harsh reality for some. We should know a lot in the coming days about the viability of Romanoff and Buck going forward as they see their candidacies in the balance from financial straits.