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March 30, 2010 06:20 PM UTC

What to expect from Fundraising this Quarter

  • 18 Comments
  • by: SheepskinStrutt

(We’ll promote any diary that uses “pecuniary paucity” in a sentence. – promoted by Colorado Pols)

With campaign filings due to start trickling in this week, I’ve compiled a brief synopsis of my take on the different Senate campaigns and what is needed to impress both their respective parties and Colorado voters.

 

Michael Bennet

Frankly, Bennet has blown everyone, even some backers in his own party, away so far with his fundraising ability, and this quarter should be no different. Buoyed by a visit from the President, and with the onus of healthcare repartee seemingly lifted off the freshman’s shoulders as far as proving himself in the Senate, expect somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million. I would consider anything less a minor disappointment.  Of course, it’s far too early to apotheosize him, but he’s been far stronger than I expected.

Andrew Romanoff

I think most of us are in agreement that this is where the rubber meets the road for AR. He’s shown the grassroots are behind him (as he predicted ad nauseum), he’s proven himself to be a superior debater, and his campaign inarguably has more than a modicum of momentum heading into the spring. Half a million dollars seems like the baseline for what would allow him to continue treading  the financial waters, with any more being a positive sign that the fundraising gap could close. However, Bennet’s war chest grows bigger by the hour…

Jane Norton

As the only Republican who has shown any ability whatsoever to fundraise, Norton doesn’t have the pressure of Buck or Romanoff, but she indubitably has more pressure than Bennet. In my estimates, her campaign has put up a pair of good numbers so far, slightly besting her Q3 totals to end with just a sliver over 1 million raised. With the prospect of a possibly longer primary than anticipated, she will have to demonstrate strength this quarter, with 650k seeming like a solid growth in the affirmative from last quarter.

Ken Buck

The time has come, to be slightly vulgar, to either shit or get off the pot. With an embarrassingly low 40k in Q4, Buck has to put himself within reach of Norton this time around, especially after a somewhat strong showing at caucuses, but needs to be translated into actual, what’s the term, dammit…oh! Money! if he wants to stay in this race. Oh, and ad spots/finances from PACs can give you a bit of a boon in a primary, and he has certainly been kept in the running partially from such groups, but watch for that to fall if his funds in actual CO start to drop. I predict his financial nadir is not far off. Anything under 350k would, if you’ll forgive me for being hackneyed, put the nail in the coffin.

Tom Wiens

Pride, they say, is the sin from which all others arise, and given Tom’s shady background, that certainly appears to be the case here. Wiens seems wholeheartedly intent on playing spoiler for Mr. Buck, and pecuniary paucity seems to be no problem for him. He’ll dump in some more money to supplement the 700k of his own funds he’s already “invested” in the campaign, and increasing his campaign subsidy only splits the anti-Norton vote. I’d be incredibly surprised if his actual fundraising breaks six digits.

Like it or not, you still need money to run for an office of this magnitude. The trend doesn’t seem to be ebbing anytime soon, and it’s a harsh reality for some. We should know a lot in the coming days about the viability of Romanoff and Buck going forward as they see their candidacies in the balance from financial straits.

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18 thoughts on “What to expect from Fundraising this Quarter”

  1. His numbers at caucus should have given his fundraising efforts a huge boost. I think your $350K prediction is too kind. He’s running for the Senate here, not a House seat. I think he needs at least a 1/2 million to prove to be viable.  

  2. I thought today’s email was actually really good. Not a bash of Bennet, but a positive reason for voting Romanoff. I think it is a shame he didn’t do that all along. He would have had more support from those on the fence — the negative stuff was not “Hope and Change”.

    How these things all translate into cash is beyond me. Does negative campaigning raise money? We’ll see.

    2. …I’ve stopped reading the Romanoff missives:

      “Money in politics is bad.  Michael Bennet has money and is in politics, therefore he is bad.  Vote for me”

      Weak stuff

      1. He has been playing to his base, his fundrasing team should be looked at and replaced in my opinion.  I’ve said it both quarters and I would be floored if I am not saying it this one as well.

        This email is better but it is more or less saying we can all play nice and I should be a senator.  I wish his message / campaign would have run like this besides attacking PACS, Lobbyists and anyone who supports Bennet.

        He has not been able to inspire the netroots, progressive groups or the unions to fully get behind him.  He is getting semi support across the board and that is a massive failure of his campaign.

        I assume he will raise another $350 – $450K which will keep his campaign on life support. The only thing good is Bennet’s ad was AWFUL but bad TV is > No tv and people waving signs.

        There is no reason he will be able to raise more than that, just winning caucus is not a boost when he was planning on winning Caucus. He also invested a massive amount of time into winning caucus and not calling for dollars.

        1. or wasted?

          I mean there is the :”do both” or “do everything” theory of campaigns.   But c’mon- don’t you think all those endorsements and caucus turnout is worth $1.2mm?

          1. If he hits 1.2 million I would be floored. What endorsements, the unions who cannot give him pac money or the local dems who are not fundraising for him?

  3. Bennet will post another solid, eyebrow raising number, and the Romanoff supporters will claim that proves he cannot be trusted or that he won’t win.

    Romanoff will raise something less – and some will say it’s not enough and he is not viable. Team Romanoff will instead point out that money is unimportant or bad or attack the strawman that “the most money doesn’t always win”.

    I’ve already predicted Romanoff at $1.2mm

    http://www.coloradopols.com/di…

    Buck is interesting. Great caucus showing – but can he budget for staff and media?

    Maes, like Buck, except no logical base from which to draw.  And I don’t believe large numbers will really see him as viable.

  4. Cory Gardner.  Cory needs a strong quarter and has been spending a lot of time in DC raising money.  

    Scott Tipton.  Scott is in a competitive seat in what many think is a GOP year. His fundraising has been weak so far.  If he has a strong quarter the RNCC will take notice and might put this race on their target list.

    Ryan Frazier.  Ryan’s last quarter was very strong. If he matches it this quarter CD 7 might attract some national attention.  

    Colorado could end up with three hotly contested Congressional races.  

    1. I know there’s an anti-incumbent mood nationwide, and Ryan Frazier seems like a good enough guy for a Republican, but do you have anything but wishful thinking to suggest that Perlmutter is in any kind of jeopardy?

      1. When the RNCC looks at a race the first thing they look at is fundraising.  If Frazier has $500,000 + in the bank the RNCC will give serious consideration to targeting CD 7.  

        Of course they may do what the RNCC did in 1996 with Joe Rogers.  1n 1996 the RNCC targeted what is now the DeGette seat and poured in a lot of money.  Than in early September they realized Rogers was a loser and dropped him from their list.  

  5. That any of the campaigns had a high burn rate.

    Norton spent a hefty chunk of change on TV for the caucuses. Her showing at the caucuses wasn’t fantastic but big donors will still regard her as the rational choice.

    Wiens petitioning on and using his own cash must make jane a little nervous.

    My prediction: whatever Romanoff raises, Bennet will raise at least 4 times as much. I happen to agree with PM, a “grassroots” campaign can’t raise money with an overtly negative message. I’m not sure what Romanoff expected when he announced as a $3 mil underdog! No amount of nasty youtube videos or emails to a stagnant list is going to be able to counter Bennet’s presence on the airwaves. It also leaves me wondering “how is AR going to get his message out there”. He better hope for a good quarter.

    1. If there’s a big surprise in this quarter’s fundraising, I bet it’s that Wiens raises some serious money from outside his immediate family.  

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