CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
50%↑
15%
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
June 20, 2010 05:59 PM UTC
17 Comments
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I’d say this shows trouble for Norton & Romanoff. Proof positive that name id and a lot of money aren’t enough for Norton to overcome all of the 527 money and the anti-establishment energy behind Buck. For Romanoff, it makes it pretty clear that either he hasn’t reached enough voters to combat Bennet multi-million dollar t.v. campaign or people just ain’t buying what he’s selling.
I wouldn’t get too cocky if I were Buck – Norton is going to make it a slug fest but I think the trend is clearly with Buck. For Romanoff, unless he suddenly finds millions to be on t.v. in a big way or Bennet gets caught with the proverbial “dead girl or live boy,” looks like that primary is Bennet’s. He hasn’t done anything that makes me excited to get behind him but hasn’t done anything that makes me dislike him either. A few votes I’d prefer to see different but all in all he’s good enough and way better than Buck or Norton.
I do question the gaps both Buck & Bennet are up by. The poll was a robo so just like Rasmussen, it has it’s flaws. Can’t reach anybody who doesn’t have or answer a home phone, “likely voter” is whoever answers the phone and pushes a button and they don’t offer an undecided option so name id counts for a lot. Flaws considered, I personally think both are closer to 10 point races but that’s a huge spread with voting starting in a month.
I do think Norton is toast – what else can she do? She’s already got way more money and the backing of the powers that be. While she can say or do anything, she can’t change who she is.
Romanoff I think does have a slight chance. First off, low turnout favors him and you never know how many will vote. Second, he has not reached a lot of voters. If he does manage to do so, that will help him. But both are long shots.
Norton needs to learn to follow Rule #1: When you’re in a hole, stop digging! She puts up that crazy new website and video talking about jihad and terrorism and then has her spokesman mouth off complaining about BP being forced to pay for damages. Hey Ms. Norton: The entire country is irate about BP and wants them to pay up and people are way more sick of insiders like you and their own need for a job than they are about you ginning up anti-Islam sentiment which is so 2008. Bennet seems to get Rule #2: When you’re ahead, don’t do anything that can jeopardize that. He’s not saying anything too controversial and for that matter isn’t saying much at all. Lay low, let the victory come while Romanoff scrambles to try to find something people will listen to or the media will report on other than a job offer that wasn’t
… and it depends on (a) having the money to put up an ad blitz the last weeks, and (b) the ads being very strong, memorable enough that they’ll circulate and get press despite a limited run.
Pet peeve…
Robo polls have a great record, especially in testing horse-race relatively far out from a primary.
Show me any sort of legitimate analysis showing they are flawed. Everything I’ve seen recently says they are typically on point.
Time to stop questioning this method. Honestly, it’s all people should be using for horse-race. If you want more details, use a live interviewer. But if your questions are straightforward, then opt for the more honest responses you get from IVR and go robo.
I guess I should add a clarifying point to this…
Robo polls do NOT include Rasmussen. Rasmussen isn’t a real independent polling company. They are republican, and in Colorado at least, they’ve been pretty typically wrong.
Their methodology, as far as I’ve seen, is heavily flawed and contains serious systematic house biases in favor of Republicans.
Also a pet peeve. Maybe I’ll up a more detailed thing on this at some point, we’ll see.
It’ll be a British-style sprint to the election, so the action will be fast and furious.
Will the Tea Party push the GOP candidates too far into the nihilistic fringe?
Will they support GOP “establishment” candidates (i.e. McInnis) in the general?
For Bennet, should he win in August, will Romanoff supporters rally behind him, or decide it’s better a Republican wins to prove either their guy wins, or everyone loses?
Bennet is joined at the hip with Obama, so I’d say Obama better get it in gear with some noisy, inspired leadership (even if it’s mostly jawboning the likes of BP, squeezing Iran and reminding everyone that he’s bringing home the troops from Iraq).
I just got an email from Josh Penry stating that the Denver Post is bogus.
He does raise a fair point that we will have mail-in ballots and that does increase turnout. The wild card in that (for Bennet too) is a lot of mail-in voters sit down with their ballot and google the candidates. That’s when they will make their decision and that search will determine what resources will influence that decision.
Somehow I don’t think Jane will fair well on those Google searches – too many inconsistencies.
the “I don’t know much, but isn’t she Gale Norton” demographic.
the diary title.
I thought it as just me.
If the poll is accurate, then at present Buck beats Bennet in the general. I figured I’d go for the shock effect 🙂
Well, no, the results between Buck and Bennet were within the margin of error. So if it’s accurate, that means it’s neck and neck.
and until November call the future winner Senator Bucket.
If the primary takes a funny hop, we can then say “O noes, theyz steelin ar buckit!”
and other such interweb acronyms.