CO-04 (Special Election)
See Full Big Line
(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 03, 2010 12:56 AM UTC
43 Comments
http://www.coloradopols.com/di…
I interpret this as 85+% of the votes are in.
Mail-in voting has two peaks — in the first week ballots drop, and in the last few days before Election Day. If we had to throw out a number, we’d say probably 30% of the votes on both sides will come in this week.
PDF – http://www.denvergov.org/Porta…
51K of 206K have returned ballots.
So, this is a 25% voting rate as of today.
Either:
1. Turnout will be really high (relatively speaking)
2. This election is over.
Fascinated by the data.
the eventual turnout.
Vote by mail changes everything.
Overall: higher turnout.
But, your chances of affecting the election decline day-by-day.
I am looking forward to some good analysis of this as I sure don’t intend to perform that analysis.
I still say that John’s appearance for Jane on Saturday is meaningless.
the remaining votes go 3 to 1 for Romanoff.
Why would you want to stop now?
were wrong about his involvement in the DPS swap?
were wrong about his involvement in the DPS swap?
Your post was about the course of the election over the last three days.
It must be really hard to be you, Wade.
drinkin’ the Kool-Aid and all that good stuf.
good GAWD, I can’t wait until Wednesday!
are sitting around reading the NYT on a Friday – lord knows you they won’t find it in the unmentionable #1 Colorado paper. Waiting for an article there to help them make up their minds who to vote for??
No offense, but you need to get out more often, man.
Maybe have a beer with that guy whose company already made its monthly sales quota….
The data is in quesion wih an accounting firm.
Mos people in Colorado don’t read the NY Times
My phone banking has shown that most of the undecided are put off heavily by the Romjue acknowledgement that the anti pac mania has been a ruse.
Outside of El Paso County, the vast majority of the remaining ballots are already in the mail and on their way to the county clerks. There will still be a lot of ballots coming in between now and Tuesday, but almost all of them will have been filled out by Thursday or Friday.
Is that what they were at this many days in advance, or total? If total that would put this likely to be 50% over 2008 which strikes me as high.
But 2010 should be significantly higher, because neither 2006 nor 2008 had a Primary at the top of the ticket.
I keep forgetting that.
“The general rule of thumb is that a higher turnout benefits the candidates with the best name ID — Sen. Michael Bennet on the Democratic side, and Jane Norton (Senate) and Scott McInnis (Governor) on the Republican ticket — because a larger number of voters usually means a larger number of uninformed voters, for whom name ID is really the most important issue.”
Seems to me people wouldn’t bother to vote in a party primary unless they were relatively informed and equally motivated….It’s possible the ease of mail-in voting makes that marginally less so, however.
Also not sure that Bennet has a higher name ID than Romanoff at this point in time. Maybe. Any data out there to support your suppostion?
… regular primary voters. These people tend to be a little more party-aware than non-primary voters. AR has been party involved a lot longer than MB
MB has been working really hard to increase his name ID, and the real question will be how many non-primary voters will vote this time and who have they latched onto. I don’t know and I would expect no one can really know until the votes are all counted.
The majority of primary voters aren’t as tuned in as you think. I know. I’ve been phone banking targeted lists. These are people with a primary voting record and the general picture is not one of particularly high info voters who have given this much thought until very recently.
A sitting Senator who has been mentioned throughout the various media over time has higher name rec. Then the TV ads,the mother of all name rec and negatives, kick in. Most primary voters have never paid much, if any, attention to the state legislature. Don’t confuse the universe of caucus goers with the universe of primary voters.
(Warning: PDF)
http://www.denvergov.org/Porta…
Tick, tick.
I am really interested (being the nerd that I am) to see this chart at the end. It is going to tell us a lot about mail-in elections.
I know it’s true, but lmao.
I’m sure that insulting people is going to work really well to get your candidate elected.
I have been involved in election campaigns for 22 years. Never once have I found it necessary to insult people to get them to vote my way. As a matter of fact, I don’t think that insulting people works for anything other than driving off voters.
Whatever Romanoff is paying you, you should probably try to get Bennet to pay you 2x more instead. That’s how effective you are at driving votes the other way.
I have now gotten through three paragraphs without a personal insult. That’s over the limit for me, so let me tell you that you are an asshole.
Want my vote? Don’t insult me.
Insulting me is not the way to get what you want.
Neither is calling me a putz, but I don’t really care about that.
Because Yiddish insults are the worst of all.
Come on, now, it’s pretty much a given that everyone commenting on this site is considered an “informed voter” and definitely not stupid. I’m just saying it’s funny that Bennet is depending on uninformed voters 🙂 On one hand it could be that informed voters are more likely party activists and therefore more likely to be loyal to Andrew. On the other hand it could be that, in the AGGREGATE, the more the average voter knows about more candidates, the more likely they are to vote Andrew. It’s probably the former.
So loosen up. And I’m not trying to get your vote. At this late stage of the game. On this site. And I’m certainly not paid. (Wish I were!)
The less likely I am to vote for him.
You’re probably best off to rely on uninformed voters. Informed voters know that Andrew’s campaign is a campaign of lies.
All I was saying is the article made me laugh when it said that. Not trying to personally offend anyone.
,
…you want me to vote for Romanoff 🙂
I just don’t understand your thought process.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com…
He’s the best thing we Dems have going for us.
Despite Republicans having several statewide primaries to the Democrats’ one, they don’t have a huge advantage on returns, and it’s narrowing–as it usually does…Republicans tend to a larger early return surge before the return rates even out.
Hopefully that pokes a few hole in the media narrative about the all-powerful tea party causing voter excitement on the right to be sky high while it’s dead on the left.
A campaigner type on Maddow tonight spoke to what I think is closer to reality–the teabaggers are revved up, and nobody else is. The far right of the far right is excited, but the rest of the far right, right, center-right, and the rest of us are similarly low energy, something that is quite common in non-presidential years.
Because we’re fighting hard to return a Congress that does a mediocre job. Hard to get jazzed up over that even though Repubs would be worse.
Anyone out there with a guess of how El Paso will come in? Since they’re not all-mail.
Whazzup with that? I would expect some juicy Rasmussen polls showing the Tanc leading the Hick, Maes way ahead of McInnis, Obama the lowest-rated president in history: you know, the usual totally reliable Rasmussen poll results.
Warning: PDF
http://www.denvergov.org/Porta…
With this being an all mail in ballot primary, how has that affected the election?
Looking at the data, voters turn in ballots at the beginning and near the end of the mail in cycle. How does this affect 1) the candidates/campaigns, 2) the reporting, 3)the GOTV?
Since there have been moves in the last years to move Colorado to an all mail in voting state, I’m curious how this primary and this election will influence those conversations in the future.