Here’s the memo for the new Ipsos poll of major Colorado races: the biggest news here is the 9-point lead for GOP nominee Ken Buck over Democrat Michael Bennet–ads hitting Buck directly hadn’t started airing when this poll was taken, but attack ads against Bennet were in full swing. We do expect these numbers to tighten once the air war is joined, and there appear to be some questions about the sampling for this poll, but Democrats would be fools to ignore the trajectory. A long campaign season lies ahead.
In the gubernatorial race, Ipsos has GOP nominee Dan Maes’ numbers stabilizing, but still distantly short of what he needs to win with insurgent Tom Tancredo in the race. Without Tancredo, Maes is tied with Democrat John Hickenlooper according to this poll. Tancredo does seem to be taking heat for his spoiler role while he continues to savage Maes at every opportunity, but nobody expects him to go anywhere. One poll notwithstanding, Tancredo knows he is the more credible conservative candidate over Maes, and still can hope realistically to outperform him in November.
Full story: New Reuters/Ipsos Poll Gives Democrats Plenty to Sweat
My sense is that Buck’s lead will grow until Bennet starts addressing his policy issues and explains how he would do somthing different than what he has been supporting. The Buck is a whack job and I am normal “spending trillions with nothing to show for it” is not going to cut it.
What do you think?
Karl Rove and Dick Cheney…..you and Mr.Buck’s mentors.
Since the poll was finished the cop scandal has rocked HIck, Maes has announced that nobody will give him money, Tanc has announced that he’s raised another $25K since Thursday, Republicans have revolted over Tambor Williams and Tanc has signed on Pat Miller to grab the hearts of Republicans.
Gimme a minute to catch my breathe.
Also, it’s becoming clear that those who are trying to rally the GOP troops for unity are finding it impossible to defend Maes to friends, family and their Priests. Even Tabor Williams can’t defend Maes convincingly.
Maes is burnt toast, and he will sink like a rock once Tanc’s supporters and HIck’s 527s go after him.
Registered voters:
Reg. Dem Rep Ind
Right direction 42 64 24 35
Wrong track 50 26 71 53
Not sure /Ref 8 10 5 12
Perhaps Dem leaders are reflecting their constituencies? 64% Dems think we’re going in the Right Direction seems awfully high.
I always thought that Dem voters thought we were on Wrong Track too, but had different views from GOP on how to fix it. Instead, they may be in a different reality.
Nearly half of Republicans thinking we’re on the “right track” would seem to fly in the face of most polling I’ve seen as well.
half of all registered voters?
I read the numbers above as 24% Republicans- Right Direction and 71% – Wrong Track.
Though 42% of registered voters seems off as well.
doesn’t mean right place. I don’t think it would be odd for most Democrats to think the country is fixing things, albeit slower than hoped.
his base yet.
“Ipsos showed Bennet leading Buck 27%-17% among independents, but capturing just 79% of Democrats. Buck was supported by 86% of Republicans.”
The unity tour apparently didn’t quite work just yet…..
until I read Maes and Hick deadlocked in a two way and realized this is really one messed poll. Or, if correct, armageddon is truly coming. I just can’t take it seriously.
n/t
But I don’t see how it’s off by a lot. I think this may be measuring two things, one that people are very very upset with us Dems. And two, Hick is going to have to sell himself.
This poll seems as out of whack as a Rasmussen poll. At the moment, it’ll only cost a $15 fine to cite it, though.
PS, Go Rockies! What a comeback from 1-10 down to win 12-10!
Bennet is doing just great.
I really liked his we have spent trillions with nothing to show for it line. Makes me think he really knows what he is doing. After all he is the guy voting to spend trillions.
I understand he has even voted for more stimulis money, because that seems to be working just fine.
Don’t beleive the polls Caro, Bennet down by 5, Bennet down by 9, everything is going just fine.
and small economic growth, which since we inherited from your idols:Rove and Cheney,is saying somehing.
David Thi threw softballs and failed to ask how Colorado could pay for any fed cuts with TABOR in place.
What you are seeing is the 50/50 we have her in Colorado on party affiliation. For the most part this is how Colorado is split, what this poll doesn’t show is that in a head to head with Hickenlooper there will be many Republicans that would not vote. I think that in a head to head, we would see an undervote just like we did in the Republican primary which puts Hick in a comfortable spot.
Buck can win and this poll is not surprising, people are not happy with the direction the country is going and this is a little unfair because they expected Obama to magically fix the problems. When they realized he was human and could never live up to their expectations they flipped on him and that is what we are seeing here. People are ready to send a message and give the other party a chance to turn it around as they should.
Fivethirtyeight.com is a very reputable group, and they say there’s nearly a 70% chance that Buck will beat Bennet. That can still be turned around, but it’s going to require a tremendous effort.
If Buck’s smart, he’ll keep his mouth shut as much as possible between now and Nov. 2 and play “rope-a-dope.”
this does not surprise me in the least.
Bennet now needs to admit and take responsibility for all of his right leaning votes…
When given a choice between a Republican and a Republican, the voters will pick the one with [R] after their name.
predates Howard Dean by a few generations.
Perhaps after you try to make Bennet lose?
Don’t shoot the messenger. If bennet is headed for a loss we need to speak up and try to get them to change course.
needs to show he is a reality based conservative Democrat. That he is an alternative to Bucks radical ultra conservative republicanism.
His voting record says otherwise. “Rubber stamp” Bennet.
more wrong. The base of the Democratic Party is liberal-center, not center right. Frankly, my impression from on the street discussions. is that Western Democrats are sick and tired of their elected official running on liberal principles, and then running to the center when they get to DC. Too often, Western Dems rely on the distaste of voting for the Republican candidate as a reason for their straying, and depend on the “lesser of two evils” for the loyal folks who put them in office. It isn’t enough. We expect those principles to be guiding the actions of the elected officials in DC. I don’t want my candidates being so concerned about keeping their jobs that they forget who and what got them elected.
This is one of the reasons why I support Senator Bennet. He hasn’t run to the middle; he has stayed true throughout his primary campaign, but more importantly, he has stayed true to his principles in his conduct as a Senator. I believe he is one of the few politicians in recent memory that is on record as saying it is more important to him to stay true to his values as he does his job than it is that he sacrifice those values for the sake of being re-elected. That is a rare statement these days. More importantly, it is rarer still that actions back up those values. Senator Bennet is one of those rare folks.
Rare statement? He and Buck have both stated it. It is rare that the statement is adhered to is probably more accurate.
When a person is elected they are elected to represent all of their constituents and find solutions that all their constituents can live with. Those who assume that their election is a mandate to govern based on extreme positions are vulnerable to acting like Republicans. Sometimes governing means considering other points of view. I don’t think that is necessarily selling out to get reelected.
is too extreme of a term. But I do find it inconsistent for any politician to campaign to get votes based on certain representations to appeal to the base, and then take positions when in office that barely reflect those things upon which one’s election was based. I don’t think being a liberal is necessarily an extremist position. GG. I think that has to be examined on a case by case basis.
But I will stand by a statement I have made earlier that too many politicians are too worried about keeping their jobs to do their job once in office. I also think that being too much of a centrist is like straddling a fence all the time. Sooner or later, you have to get down on one side or the other..the pain is too great..:*).
…on the sig line.
Two polls show Buck with a lead outside the margin of error.
Two polls show Hick peaking at a little over 40%.
This does not bode well for Democrats up and down the ticket.
but it does give me hope that Coloradoans have woken up and are rejecting the Statist policies promoted by the current administration.
But if Congress is not viewed as doing something that will significantly reduce unemployment, I don’t see any way Bennet or Markey can win. And both Perlmutter & Salazar could be in trouble.
And if they can tie the jobs meme to the state level races, we’ll have major problems at this level too.
They’re running on the mosque. Seriously.
People are unhappy, but so far very few politicians seem to have made unemployment an issue, despite your predictions. Many Republicans actually think unemployment is primarily the fault of the lazy.
They’re blaming the poor economy (ie jobs) on deficit spending.
nor pointing out that any fed cuts cannot be replaced by Colorado due to TABOR.
When a Dem runs on creating jobs it is, here is a program that hires people and puts them to work doing x. If you are lucky it will cost y and if very lucky will be paid for by z.
When a Republican runs on creating jobs it is we will need to cut spending and/or lower taxes to lower the costs to business so they can create jobs. The jobs they create will create more taxpayers who can then pay more taxes and make up for any lost revenue incident to the cutting of spending and/or taxes. Because small businesses will be creating the jobs they can’t tell how many jobs will be created, how much it will cost and how quickly the revenue will be returned.
Both scenarios create jobs, just differently
This is another instance of the “all numbers are equal” theory of economics, which is extremely widespread in political debate for some reason. Probably due to innumeracy or math-phobia. Does anyone else understand what I’m talking about here, or is this just obvious if you have a math background?
Except that in this case, the multiplier is real.
The rest of this is fun and games, but don’t fuck with math. You don’t get to just make up any value for a multiplier, and you don’t get to call some real and some imaginary. Multipliers can be defined and measured in very specific ways. You may dispute the data in such a measurement, but you can’t just claim there isn’t one there.
I would think you of all people would have some respect for numbers. I know I act pissed off all the time, but math abuse really does make me angry.
Obviously, I understand math better than you.
You dishonor math teachers everywhere by doing that. I know as a Republican you have to lie about everything else in order to try to win elections, but don’t lie about math.
Multipliers are real. Here’s a cite. You might debate how they’re calculated, but you can’t just claim certain numbers don’t exist. That’s dishonest and disgusting for a math teacher.
If you just want to have a math fight, that’s probably better off the site. Email me at Google Mail if you want to challenge me.
that clip is awesome! (Despite coming from Numbers, which is a shabby portrayal of how mathematics is used at best.) Bring it on. Easier just to start a math thread. And by the way I am a math teacher, and no I do not dishonor myself.
considering your screen name.
I think the disconnect of republicans are not talking about jobs is that they use a different theorey to get to the same place. (but you are right, I was not a math major)
Maybe I’m reading different sources, but I see a lot of Republicans talking about the mosque and not a lot talking about jobs. Yes, when asked, many Republicans will say tax cuts create jobs, and that’s their plan. But it doesn’t seem like something they’re really focused on.
People won’t be talking about it in a few weeks; the only reason the media keeps bringing it up is because it’s making people think Obama is a Muslim.
most credible economists have thoroughly debunked the trickle down myth that Reagan started and they continue it to this day. Relying on the noblesse oblige of the rich has hardly served the middle and lower class well. Those policies and their relations (no regulation, no enforcement of the rules that were in place got this country where it is today. Not Bush bashing..just a fact that I realize the Republicans don’t want to deal with. Hell I don’t blame them, really. Would you want to be accountable for creating the second greatest economic crisis in this country’s brief history? Moreover, isn’t it interesting that the current Republicans are repeating the Party of NO policies that their historical counterparts advocated in the response to the Great Depression…
The question is willmthe voters in the middle buy it.
You really want to help the Republicans?
You are doing a good job.Why did you give Buck a pass on Tabor? you want fewer cops, fewer teachers, no infrastructure, abortion banned? I don’t think so.
It’s a state law and the Bennet/Buck race is federal.
Also TABOR does. Not preclude tax increases, it just requires approval from the voters.
and they are not buying that theorey.
reduce taxes even more (because even with those heavenly Bush tax cuts we still seem to find ourselves in a mess),
thereby increasing debt and borrowing
Or
cutting programs and people and therebye increasing unemployment and removing services at a time when our country is the most at need since the 30s.
How again will putting more people on the streets and removing their lifelines get our economy rolling again?
Why does this seem like such a hard choice for people?
are, quite simply, running on fear and the hate, and blaming it creates. As Michael Douglas said, somewhat prophetically, in the movie when he played the President..”…they know how to do two things…make you afraid of it, and tell you who to blame for it”…
Notice there are no solutions proposed. That is what the Republicans do best these days. Unfortunately, there are people that listen to this tripe. I just watched a piece on TV where Glenn Beck, Hero of the radical right, claims to waiting to hear from the “Spirit” and he will initiate the “plan”. I mean, really, folks..if he wasn’t on Fox, he would be a candidate for “help” at this point.
obstructionist plan of the republicans all along.
The crappier they can keep the economy…
the more power they will regain in the house and senate.
“Republican concern for regaining Republican Party Power, far outweighs concern for the plight of our country”.. I been saying that for months.
This is one of the best conspiracy theories I’ve ever heard. You are so paranoid and blinded by your rhetoric that you cannot see how illogical that statement is.
That’s the craziest theory I ever done heard!
and the lock step Republican politicians have been over the last two years?
Please name one Republican who has voted differently from the herd on any issue that has dealt with the revival of our country after years of trickle down misrule.
Ken Buck will be no different. If he is in the minority he will vote party line regardless of the issue. If he is in the majority he will vote party line regardless of the issue. Republicans don’t do independent thinking and they continue to believe that trickle down isn’t synonymous with pissed on by the rich.
1st post election poll Buck +5
Today Buck +9
Seems to me your Bennet begins election run with momementum comment was a little off, unless you want to wait until he is down by double digits before you update the line.
If he’d agree to an interview
But I do think anstrong interviewnwith McInnis might have madenthe difference. Especially with how atnthe end he was defined totally by the plagiarism if you searched the web.
The Karl Rove attack ads have been playing all week.
I still like our chances.
thought of that during the primary campaign before you made it obvious you were very pro AR, and anti-Bennet in many of your posts. Senator Bennet will be giving plenty of interviews. Perhaps a call to Craig Hughes to clear the air would help your cause.
By that logic any republican candidate should avoid me.
I think the Bennet team can read my interviews, includingn2 of Senator Bennet, to see that I’m fair. I did leave several messages but communication requires a return call
Figure out why that is, David? It can’t be hard…And I didn’t say interviews, I said comments here on this blog…get it right.
Because the republicans know I’m a Dem yet see me treat them fairly theynget the concept that I’m fair in the interviews but very partisian in other posts.
As primaries are rare, there isn’t much need on the Dem side to pay attention to that. Although Romanoff did agree to an interview when I was a strong supporter of Bennet, so he figured it out.
Anyways, I think you’re correct that the Bennet team doesn’t get it.
I really think Ken Buck being interviewed by David and being portrayed as thoughtful and independent early on was very helpful to him in the primary and will help him in the general. Ken Buck knows David is not going to vote for him. But he also knows David is fair and honest. By spending time with David many others will vote for him.
David’s interviewing style lets the voter get a feel for the candidate that is not otherwise afforded voters unless they too took hours to be prepared and spend an hour or two with the candidate. It has the feel as if you ordered a beer next to someone and started a conversation. If Bennet does not jump all over the opportunity afforded by David he is a fool.
i think perhaps that you should talk to Craig.
…because every email, every statement, every ad (hello 17th Amendment), every Denver Post whitewash we see reminds us what a disgrace the appointment and primary were. Such as this gem from a Biden email recently:
Sounds familiar. The White House bragging about how much it influenced the election didn’t help either.
There is a lot of anger out there among Democrats and Bennet and the White House are either stunningly ignorant of it or think we will come around by November. My message to them is: don’t count on it.
I no longer give a rip that Obama threw everything in to Bennet winning the primary. It’s general election time.
am sick and tired of the continued whining of the AR folks and the misplaced blaming that evidently is STILL going on about Ritter’s choice of the process, the perception that he bypassed the established old lions of the State party in making his choice. If you had issues with the selection process. you should have raised those with Gov. Ritter. Frankly, I am disappointed that Gov. Ritter didn’t step up to the plate early in the campaign to take the responsibility for his decision; it would have clarified an issue that evidently is still causing hard feelings amongst some of the AR supporters.
If the poster is foolish enough to allow misplaced anger to drive this person to either sit out the election, or to vote for Mr.Buck in some misplaced sense of protest, I will respectfully remind the commenter of what happened with a similar attitude with Ralph Nsder in Florida, and what the cost was for this nation with that vote.
I got over it. You can too.
That’s a fact.
If you can’t see that then perhaps you don’t believe in democracy.
Romanoff tied or ahead. There was a surge of Obama voters at the end that help Michael Bennet win by eight percentage points.
Those who think that Obama supporters forgot how to GOTV in two years will underestitmate the final vote counts.
Let’s see what happens to the polls after Obama speaks to the nation about Iraq. He said that combat operations would end by this time just like he said that 90% of the Gulf oil spill would be contained in two weeks. As much as Republicans don’t want this election to be a referendum on what Obama has done the inevitable truth is that he is finishing the tasks that were so badly botched by the previous administration.
Good policies make for good politics and those who assume that Bennet is gone because he represents the progress made the Obama administration in dealing with the incompetence of the past administration could easily be lured into over confidence. Buck is a shoo in boys. Sit back and enjoy yourselves. You deserve to be giddy at this point. You also believed that Health Care Reform would never pass either.
n/t
campaign folks made the same mistake Mark Udall’s opponent made two years ago–go totally negative the last two weeks before the election was held. That, and the turnout, made the difference for Senator Bennet is a somewhat surprising easy victory in the primary.
I am hoping the Buck folks make the same mistake. Negative campaigns initially gain traction, but IF and WHEN the attacked side counters with good strong rebuttals, the momentum tends to sputter and reverses.