September 02, 2010 11:13 PM UTC

Labor Day Religious Tax Fest!!

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• by: Car 31

[title updated to encourage more views 🙂 – Car 31]

Some of you may know more about Larry Sabato who is the Director of U of Virginia’s Center for Politics. His analyses and predictions have been accurate over the years, more accurate than many pundits and polls.

His latest predictions are that the US House flips control to the Republicans. He adds that since WWII, the House flipped control six times, and every time the Senate flipped as well.

There are more interesting points, some quoted after the jump. Relevant to Colorado, Mr. Sabato believes Sen. Bennet will lose and Reps. Markey, Salazar and Perlmutter will retain their seats.

The info for the gubernatorial contest is outdated, but the race is ever changing here, so one can’t blame him.

Here’s a brief overview of the analysis. The full Crystal Ball may be found here:

https://www.centerforpolitics.o…

2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree…conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer…The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction.

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react).

The parallels to previous administrations are interesting. If the House and Senate flip control, one could argue that the country benefits. President Reagan and Clinton had success dealing with an opposition Congress. Presidents Kennedy, Carter, and (arguably) Obama had trouble dealing with a ‘friendly’ Congress.

If anything, the pendulum continues to swing back and forth, showing again that the American system of government works and compromise and bargaining are essential to politics.