Predictions Anyone?

(Ladies and Gentlemen, Start your crystal balls! – promoted by Voyageur)



As I look at RedGreen’s diary comparing 2008 to now here in the world of Pols, I can’t help but think that two years ago we were all about making predictions about the election.  Of course, two years ago making predictions was fun because, at the end of the day, we knew Dems would win and all would be right with the world.  Now, not so much.

But, come on, Polsters.  Time to man (and woman) up.  Is Betsy (not to be confused with Edward) Markey a one-termer?  Is John Salazar unexpectedly going to find himself out of a job?

And, for the love of Christ, don’t just let the beej, h-man, and libby dominate with there shillery…

There are real races here, who wins?

I fully admit I think tomorrow is going to be a bad night for Dems.  My faith in polls is probably a bit stronger than most of yours for a variety of reasons.  The bottom line is I just don’t think the numbers are there for Dems.  

And with that, I lay myself before the court of Pols.  Here are my (sad) predictions:

Senate:  Ken Buck is going to be an awful Senator…worse that Dullard…but the next US Senator from the state of Colorado he is.  Buck by 3.

CO 3rd:  Like Pols says, Salazar did get caught napping, but he should pull this thing out.  Repubs just didn’t pay enough attention while Salazar wasn’t.  Salazar by 4 at the end of the day.

CO 4th: I like Betsy, I really do, but she won in ’08 by 12% against a ridiculously unpopular incumbent.  Gardner’s not perfect, but he’s miles ahead of Musty and good enough for the 4th in the eyes of Repubs.  Gardner by 6 in a bit of a surprise.

Gov: If Hick doesn’t win, I pledge to stop following politics entirely…seriously…

AG:  Suthers in a walk

SoS: Buescher

Treasurer: Stapleton…ugh…

Other races:

WV Sen: The only reason Manchin is still ahead in the polls against anyone with an ‘R’ attached to his name is because his numbers started in the stratosphere.  That should be enough to win, but not by much.  Manchin by 2.

PA Sen: Toomey by 6

NV Sen: Say hello to Senator Crazy McGoo.  Angle by 4.

AK Sen: Does anyone have the slightest idea about what’s going on here?!  I think this race gets caught up in the courts Coleman/Franken style…that’s all I’ve got.

IL Sen: The numbers lean towards Kirk, but like with Salazar’s seat, I just cant see it happening.  Giannoulmnopqrsias in a squeaker.

WA Sen: Today’s PPP poll should scare the crap out of Dems.  This race easily has the two best know candidates to their electorate in the country, and people have reject Dino the RINO twice.  Third time’s a charm…for losing.  Murray by 4.

Obviously there are tons of interesting races out there, but here’s the bottom line.

Senate 52-48 Dems

House 52 seat net swing to repubs

I hope I’m wrong…

113 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. VoyageurVoyageur says:

    but Bennet has much better GOTV.

    Bennet by two.

    Hick by an embarassing margin.

    Kennedy, Buescher, Suthers keep their jobs.

    Salazar, Perlmutter win.

    Markey loses as third party defectors finally get behind gardner.

    • caroman says:

      We might be surprised by the Dem turnout tomorrow.  But, I ain’t betting any money on this one.  

      Abe Lincoln may have faith in the American people — I have my doubts.  We may be witnessing a generational fail if we turn the country over to teabaggers.

      Let’s be positive for now.  I had another excellent canvassing day.

    • caroman says:

      Michael Bennet ran an excellent campaign.  Consider:

      1) He didn’t make a gaffe in 20 months of campaigning; and,

      2) He must have lived the most boring life because they didn’t come up with anything on this guy.  I’m sure they were trying.

      I’m proud to have been a tiny part of this campaign.

      • bjwilson83 says:

        “didn’t make a gaffe in 20 months of campaigning”

        He does nothing but make gaffes! My gosh, did you hear him on Boyles this morning? We came up with plenty on him:

        http://www.youtube.com/bennetvsbennet

        Of course, there was other stuff which couldn’t be proven, but I am not permitted to discuss that here.

        • No2Dems says:

          The only person who has made more than marble mouth is Biden the dumbest man to serve in the senate and be Vice President.

          Typical drone only wants to hear what he wants or he is that dumb.  

          • Aaron says:

            Dumbest VP?

            I bet he can spell potato.

            • No2Dems says:

              He is also a plagiarist.  

              • ClubTwitty says:

                What is it about wing nut conservatives that everything TODAY is the most, worst, best ever in US History…

                No perspective, clearly no historical knowledge, and an inherent arrogance all rolled up into a big GOP-ber.

                Can you imagine what a terrible mess we’d be in if McGrumpy and Failin’ got the nod…

                Here’s hoping your ‘star VP’ candidate raises some serious coin and really goes after all them ‘Good Ol’ Boys’ on your side.  2012 should be fun.  Go Sarah Go!

                • No2Dems says:

                  Everything the left does is historic right?

                  This is a Colorado politics site. Go look up all the things the idiot has said or done. There is a reason he won’t be around in 2012.

                  Please educate us and explain what made those two less intelligent than the plagiarist?  

                  • ClubTwitty says:

                    Biden the dumbest man to serve in the senate and be Vice President.

                    So, are you really that stupid?  Or do you just think others are?

                  • ClubTwitty says:

                    I merely wanted you to compare and contrast with the above, since you beleive yourself to be.  I mean, the worse or dumbest EVER is a bold claim–my guess is there are doctoral and masters’ theses filling shelves dissecting and discussing that question–and yet here you boil it down so succinctly, with finality, and no need for explanation or evidence, because you uttered it.  

                    Of course you said Biden was the dumbest VP and senator to have served.

                    It’s your claim, and if you had any integrity you would back it up.  But you apparently don’t.  Which isn’t a surprise, really.  Predictable.  Par for course.  Meeting the low expectations I have for you quite well, actually.  

                    But here–suppose I am wrong in my impression of you–reveal yourself to be the scholar with acumen and integrity you either imagine yourself to be or, perhaps, really are.  And if so, upon doing so please accept my apologies for any doubt I may harbor, based on the tired crap you have posted heretofore.  

                    So, help me out with a few questions, that you should be able to answer off the top of your head, having decided and stated that Biden is the worst:

                    How many VPs have there been?  Top 5?  Bottom 5?

                    How many Sens have there been?  Top 5?  Bottom 5?

                    Perhaps your sockpuppet–I don’t know, another frequent poster from your side also claims to be an astute ‘Student of History.’  He is also prone to broad sweeping statements about the president and Democrats which are simply, demonstrably false.  Then, like you, the subject is awkwardly changed, the argument is jerked somewhere else, and you troll happily along, as if to say:

                    Move along folks–nothing to see: our next wildly outrageous conservative talking point will be along in a minute.

                    As I said–entirely predictable.  If I were a Cheesy Bucknut poseur I could write your ‘arguments’ nearly verbatim.  Nothing original, nothing thought provoking.  

          • cunninjo says:

            if you really wanted to, you just don’t have the time right now, right? Or, you guys just wouldn’t be able to handle it. Or,there just isn’t enough room on here to list them all…

            So I won’t list any…

          • VoyageurVoyageur says:

            Vote for me because I don’t wear high heels.

            I won’t prosecute a rape because the victim just has buyer’s remorse.

            Being gay is a matter of choice, like alcoholism.

             Wait, this just in — all those were Buck gaffes.  

  2. MADCO says:

    CO in the wave year

    Maes

    Buck

    CO 1 Fallon

    CO 2 Baily

    CO 3 Tipton

    CO 4 Gardner

    CO 5 no comment

    CO 6  Flerlage

    CO 7 Frazier

    State  house and senate  go R

    - Speaker  Balmer

    - President of the Senate  King, K.

    All judges are not retianed

    Senate

    Fl, IL, PA, WA, WI, WV,  : R’s

    McConnell

    House swings 75-80 seats R

    Boehner

    In 2011, Obama resigns, Joe Biden is promptly impeached – Boehner becomes president.

    2012 Palin challenges  - selects Joe the Plumber as VP running mate.

  3. ace41 says:

    But I think Hickenlooper wins.

    Buck and Bennet go into a recount.

    Perlmutter pulls it out.  I can’t predict Salazar.

    I actually think Markey surprises everyone and takes it by 2.

  4. Sir RobinSir Robin says:

    a euphemism for “stupid voter” turn out and vote? If so, God help us all.

  5. Ralphie says:

    But yours look fairly reasonable.

  6. Aaron says:

    Senate – Bennet (.1 margin post recount)

    Gov – Hick (by 10 points)

    CO3 – Salazar (by 2 points)

    CO4 – Gardner (by 5 points)

    CO7 – Perlmutter (by 7 points)

    AG – Suthers (by 10, ugh)

    S of S – Bernie B (narrowly)

    Treasurer – Kennedy (very narrowly)

    State house – Narrowly Dem

    State senate – Comfortably Dem

    Numbered ballot measures – All fail (63 comes closest)

    Judges – All retained

    Close senate races:

    Penn, Wisconsin, Nevada – Republican

    Illinois, Washington, WV, Colorado, Cali – Dems

    Alaska – Murkowski

    Senate- 53 Dems

    House – Narrowly Republican (42 Seats Lost)

  7. bjwilson83 says:

    Those of you who are web savvy enough can find them. Let me just say you guys are all way too charitable to Dems (except MADCO, who is smoking crack tonight – MAES?!?)

  8. dwyer says:

    A few thoughts and predictions

    I predict a republican win for both senate and governor.

    The democrats don’t have a good ear for the “street.”

    1) Bennet is park hill colorado and doesn’t hear beyond that reference group.  Most straight men may well support abortion rights and gay rights, but they are a bit uneasy with these topics and to hear them constantly, is simply a turn off.  Bennet has lost the male vote, big time.

    2) Maes allowed Tancredo to slide without any criticism, a point I made weeks ago.

    3) Hickenlooper appealed to the female vote; but men don’t want a “helping hand.”  They want someone who is going to help them get the “bastards.”

    I think that Obama’s problem is different.  Obama is what is known as someone who grew up in the Third Culture. …

    American kids who were raised abroad because their parents were in the military or the diplomatic corps or worked overseas for corporations.  Third Culture kids (and as an army brat, I qualify) miss cues…because they really don’t know typical middle class culture in the US. So they (we) spend inordinate amount of time trying to understand, analysis, or reconcile what we are experiencing as adults what other people learned as kids.

    I think what Obama tried to do was consolidate his democratic party support.  He presumed that the Clintons were his natural rivals.  I think his choice of HIllary for SofS was brilliant. But, I think that he thought that he could replace the clinton party structure with his own….OFA.  Big mistake.  Because Obama needed the very states which Clinton won and those states became the foundation for the tea party.  Obama needed Carvelle in the White House, he needed Howard Dean, he needed people who had an “ear” for the party and for the American people.  The dems lost in Colorado because the party structure sat on its hands.  It was Clinton terrority and Obama did not woo, it tried to steam roll.  Ditto for Arkansas and Pennsylvania.

    The biggest mistake which Obama made was his beer party at the White House.  He alienated police all over the country. He did not “hear” nor understand how middle class was reacting to the situation.

    I called 1-866-558-3927 to get on the no call list for New Directions Colorado after an anti-Hick call from them.  

      • EmeraldKnight76 says:

        Do you know most straight men? Is there polling to support this rather arbitrary point of view?

        So you’re saying that Democratic candidates should be pro-choice and for gay rights but they shouldn’t talk about it? They should be secretly pro-choice and pro-gay rights so as to not make straight men uncomfortable?

        This sounds like something you would expect from a conservative.

        Oh wait. Maybe this explains it…

        So they (we) spend inordinate amount of time trying to understand, analysis, or reconcile what we are experiencing as adults what other people learned as kids.

        Maybe you should work on understanding, analyzing, or reconciling that straight men aren’t nearly as fragile as you think. Maybe you shouldn’t project so much.

        • Papa Smurf says:

          …pulled that out of your ass.  He definitely did NOT say that “Democratic candidates should be pro-choice and for gay rights but [not] talk  about it.”  I’m fairly certain he believes that they SHOULD talk about it, but I would certainly second his opinion that most straight males feel “a little uneasy” about those topics and certainly get turned off by hearing lots about them.  I know many liberals who would say they feel this way (or would be lying if they didn’t).  I can even say the same would be true of me if my life experiences with said subjects hadn’t made them impossible to avoid.

            • Papa Smurf says:

              I call it like I see it.  No bullshit.  He completely mischaracterized what you said.

            • EmeraldKnight76 says:

              I think that says a lot.

              Face it dwyer, you’ve been singing this same song for quite a while. You think Dems should act like Republicans only Republicans are allowed to run on their social issue stances. We should have no position on any social issues that might upset white men. Or at the very least, we shouldn’t run on them or speak them out loud.

              At what point do we draw a clear distinction between our social issue stances and the Republicans? Especially during an election cycle?

              • butterfly says:

                and living in the states from about 18 to 48, spending how many years as a State Senator etc.  Well that must be ‘abroad’ too.

                Doing community work on the south side of Chicago for several years is probably about as eye opening as you can get.  But I guess it isn’t considered Middle Class.

                I think that Hillary has totally gotten over the 2008 election and Bill has pretty much done the same.  He seems to be out there defending the President and working hard.  But some Clinton supporters just can’t let go!  

                Sad really.

                This photo was taken right after the House passed the Health Care bill.  Even though Hillary was unable to get health care passed in the ’90s, she is obviously proud that it passed in 2010.  Other people should let the 2008 election go as well as Hillary has!

                http://www.flickr.com/photos/w

                • dwyer says:

                  I will search for a reference in quieter times for this culture concept.  Hawaii is unique and was a territory up until two years before the President was born. He spent much of his boyhood in Indonesia.  South Side of Chicago is definitely not middle class.  I am seeking to understand the President’s reaction.  It is meant as an explanation not a criticism.  Although one of the things I have noticed about middle class mores is an absolute intolerance for anyone who suggests a different perspective.

                  @butterfly.  I was an Obama supporter from the Phila speech forward.

                  @EK  Absolutely I have been singing this same song for a long time…SEE.  I would like democrats to win.  A winning strategy does not mean giving up principles it means having a winning strategy.

                  • EmeraldKnight76 says:

                    about abortion just to impart your strategy wisdom. Over and over. That seems, to me, more than just a concern about winning.

                    I also fundamentally disagree with your strategy. Dems have had their asses handed to them on the topic of gay rights and abortion for years. Republicans have used these issues as wedges successfully for years. BECAUSE we let them. We never stand firm but instead try to quickly walk back so as to not upset your beloved white men voting bloc.

                    The demographics are changing. Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims), teh gays, and gay friendly voters far out number homophobic scared white men. Those are the voters we need to start focusing on. When we start to use abortion and gay rights as a wedge issue against Republicans, as we began to see this year, it can be very successful.

                    Your “strategy” is reminiscent of a time gone by. And one I would expect to hear from a Republican who hopes to take his country back.

  9. Cyclops says:

    Hick wins with Maes going below 10%

    Bennet in a squeaker

    Salazar

    Buescher

    Suthers

    Kennedy

    Other fun ones…

    NV Sen: Ried by 2 because I can’t underestimate his inside game combined with Angles craziness.

    Alaska: I am seeing a perfect tempest in a tea pot and calling for a McAdams surprise!

    Prediction for 2012:

    The R’s take the house and immediately begin to tare each other to pieces further dividing moderate R’s fom social con’s and the tea party. The Dems sit by to watch the carnage and so nothing gets done for we the people. Along the way, establishment R’s (good ol boys) push Palin aside for a presidential bid instead choosing to run Romney. This causing Palin to run on a third “tea” party ticket with Tom Tancredo handing the white house and congress to the D’s!  

  10. Anyone want to guess the vote percentages for the Green and the Libertarian in the Senate race?

  11. Ignatius O'Reilly says:

    Hick

    Buck

    Tipton

    Gardner

    Perlmutter

    Stapleton

    Gessler

    GOP takes state House. Dems keep state Senate. Same goes for DC.

    I think Pols has been running its line with its heart and not its head all year.

    Result is two years of state and national political gridlock. China celebrates.

  12. ClubTwitty says:

    Hick by 8, GOP relegated to minor party status

    Bennet barely

    CD3-Salazar, by 2

    CD4-Gardner, 5+

    CD7-Perlmutter, 4

    AG-Suthers, 4

    SoS-Buescher, 3

    Treas-Kennedy, 5

    • NoCo_Indy says:

      Stan Matsunaka was able to win the Senate seat coming from pretty much the same position, centrist Democrat taking on a very conservative incumbent. My only worry is that since this is so late since the 2000 redistricting, Ball’s name recognition in Loveland won’t be high with the new arrivals and also won’t carry over to rural Larimer County and the ton of votes in places like Wellington and Windsor. GOTV will have to be big there for him. What do you think of McCreary/DelGrosso?

      • Republican 36 says:

        he hasn’t run an effective one. Some people predict he will be defeated because McCreary served on the school board, was popular and effective. In brief, McCreary has been elected there before and Mr. DelGrosso hasn’t but it is a very Republican town.

        Sen. Lundberg is in trouble for the opposite reason. His longevity and almost absolute refusal to represent his district has made just about everybody angry at him. That is a big factor in Rich Ball’s successful campaign.  

  13. Papa Smurf says:

    …far more accurate than the fantasy-world “Big Line.”  But I’m prepared to eat my shoe if necessary.

    Governor – CO

    Hick beats Tancredo by 3-5% with Maes earning less than 10% of the vote

    U.S. Senate – CO

    Buck beats Bennet by 2-4%

    U.S. House – CO-3

    Tipton beats Salazar by 3-5%

    U.S. House – CO-4

    Gardner beats Markey by 6-8%

    U.S. House – CO-7

    Frazier beats Perlmutter by 1-3%

    Treasurer – CO

    Stapleton beats Kennedy by 4-6%

    Secretary of State – CO

    Gessler beats Buescher by 3-5%

    Attorney General – CO

    Suthers beats Garnett by 7-9%

    Colorado State House

    Republicans control at +2 to +4

    Colorado State Senate

    Dems could hold by up to +2, Republicans could take over by +1

    U.S. Senate – AK

    Miller AT LEAST +7 over Murkowski, McAdams doesn’t belong in the discussion

    U.S. Senate – CA

    Boxer beats Fiorina by 2-4%

    U.S. Senate – IL

    The hardest race to call, as there are so many still undecided (both are horrible, horrible candidates), but I envision Kirk beats Giannoulias by 2-4%

    U.S. Senate – NV

    Angle beats Reid by 3-5%

    U.S. Senate – PA

    Toomey beats Sestak by 5-7%

    U.S. Senate – WA

    Murray beats Rossi by 0.1-2%

    U.S. Senate – WV

    Manchin beats Raese by 1-3%

    U.S. Senate Balance of Power

    Democrats retain control 50-50 to 52-48 (not including any possible party-switching of Joe Lieberman and/or Ben Nelson)

    U.S. House Balance of Power

    Republicans gain 55-65 seats for approximately a 240-195 split in the favor of the GOP.

      • Papa Smurf says:

        But from what I’ve seen, this meshes with predictions by a few of the more liberal Polsters pretty well.  The most significant difference being that none of you will acknowledge the possibility of Frazier beating Perlmutter.  I think that rather likely.  Certainly not a given, but Ryan is a good candidate (even Democrats must acknowledge that).  If anyone can knock off Fast Eddie, it’s him.

        • caroman says:

          I will defend my predictions to the death!”

          “Give me my predictions or give me death!”

          • Gilpin Guy says:

            is that Republicans will continue to act like spoiled children instead of legitimate partners in rebuilding our nation and will continue to regard anyone who doesn’t have the same perspective as they do as the enemy.

            They are like the alcoholic relatives who make a spectacle of themselves at the family gatherings and are totally oblivious to their drunken behavior.

            They don’t really believe in Democracy or power sharing and working together to solve problems.  It’s always about doing anything including bearing false witness and out and out lying to achieve their political objectives.

            We could be a great nation again but these terrible relatives will continue to tear down our nation with their lies and obstruction.

            This is how we are suppose to live together.

            My prediction is that the Republican assholes will be even bigger ones in the future because they are too immature to acknowledge that they are only a part of this nation and that the other parts are just as important.

        • VoyageurVoyageur says:

          A better R might have taken Perlmutter.  But Frazier is too lazy.

          • cologeek says:

            That Republicans ran a lazy black man in CO-7?

            (Man this racial smearing is easy!)

            • VoyageurVoyageur says:

              His fellopw Rs regard him as a lightweight.  He misses meetings (as Perlmutter’s ads said) and is basically a showhorse, not a workhorse.   I think a better man might have won this year, but never took frazier seriously.  He turned me off when he shilled for the municipal league in an effort to protect the Comcast monopoly against Qwest’s efforts to offer real competition in cable.  

    • TimothyTribbett says:

      It is Repug fantasy land that 7 is that close.

    • bjwilson83 says:

      I think Rossi is slightly up in Washington though. Senate goes 50-50, Lieberman might switch. And I’m not certain Frazier wins, at least not by that much. Oh and Tancredo could win due to momentum. But other than that, very accurate.

  14. brio says:

    Hick by 7

    Buck by 2

    Tipton by 2

    Gardner by 4

    Perlmutter by 3

    Suthers by 7

    Stapleton by 1

    Buescher by 1

    I can’t believe I’m picking Stapleton, but the voter turnout numbers combined with anti-incumbent mood combined with lack of average-voter attention to this race, there it is.

  15. SSG_Dan says:

    Hick by 12, GOP chased into the night like thieves, taking DickWad with them.

    Bennet barely, which means we’ll have 2 months of lawsuits over the recount.

    CD1 – I think they use the mercy rule and call it for DeGette at 7pm. She goes back into hiding in DC.

    CD2 – Polis will carry the district by 10, but showing he’s not a shoo-in for the seat in 2012

    CD3-Salazar, by 4 just cause people still trust him

    CD4-Gardner, by 1 in the other squeaker that keeps lawyers employed for 2 months

    CD7-Perlmutter, by 8 kicking Fraiser’s ass and sending him back to outsourcing jobs to Asia.

    AG-Suthers, 8 proving that it’s ok to let a serial killer go and claim you didn’t know about it.

    SoS-Buescher, by 2

    Treas-Kennedy, 8

    Overall Repubs take the House by one seat, possibly don’t.  Dems hold the Senate 53-47 with Turncoat Joe jumping to the Repubs the next day.

    • Papa Smurf says:

      …but I have to ask a serious question.  Why would “Turncoat” Joe caucus with Republicans if it didn’t get them the majority?  He needs full support by one of the major parties to continue masquerading as an Independent Senator from Connecticut.  Republicans wont fully support him unless they get something in return.  A 52-48 deficit is no better than a 53-47 deficit.  At least until January 3rd, 2013.

  16. raymond1 says:

    Statewide:

    Hick by 5

    Bennet by 0.5

    Suthers by 8

    Gessler by 4

    Stapleton by 2

    House Seate:

    Gardner

    Tipton

    Perlmutter

    Nationally:

    Rs pick up 8 Senate seats

    Rs pick up 55 House seats.

    • Papa Smurf says:

      You’re predicting Bennet wins, which means to get to Rs +8 you would have to predict a Republican wins all but one of AK, CA, IL, NV, PA, WA, and WV.

      • raymond1 says:

        By which I mean:

        – I see 6 extremely likely R wins: ND,IN,AR,PA,WI,NV

        – I see 4 close races, ones I’d see as 50/50 to 60/40 either way –so I’m guessing Rs win 2, with the most likely R win being IL, the less likely being WA & WV, and CO a coin toss (50/50).

        So I wouldn’t be stunned if Rs win 7-9; I’d be surprised but not shocked if 6 or 10.

  17. DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

    Where those that agreed to the interviews win (it held 100% in the primary).

    Hick wins (1½ interviews to Tancredo’s 1).

    Buck wins (2 primary, 1 general interview vs 2 primary interviews with Bennet).

    Kennedy.

    Buescher.

    Suthers – (Work was too busy so I didn’t have time to interview Garnett.)

    Salazar.

    Markey.

    Perlmutter – (Both did interviews but Frazier’s was when he was running for Senate so it only counts as ½)

    Hey, it’s as good a system as any :)

  18. Sir RobinSir Robin says:

    Colorado:

    Hick by 7

    Bennet contested by a hair

    Suthers by 6

    Gessler by 5

    Stapleton by 2

    House Seats:

    Markey contested by a hair

    Salazar by 4

    Perlmutter by 5

    Nationally:

    Rs pick up 4 Senate seats

    Rs pick up 34 House seats.

    Polls and the media are complicit against the poeples will.  

  19. cunninjo says:

    -Hick wins by 5%, Maes under 10%

    -Bennet by 4

    -Salazar by 4

    -Gardner by 2

    -Perlmutter by 5

    -Polis by 1,000,000%

    Dems keep state house by 1 seat

    Dems keep State Senate by 4

    Gessler wins

    Kennedy wins

    Garnett wins

    Alaska – People forget to the check the write-in box next to Murkowski’s name, McAdams for the win!

    Dems keep US House by 2 seats (That’s right, I said it)

    Dems hold US Senate by 4 seats

  20. GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:

    Sometime Thursday, it’ll be Buck by <.1

    When I was out canvassing Saturday I did everything I could think of, including the old fashioned, Shake on that, pardner, to assure they’d vote as they said they would. I even made one woman pinky-promise me she’d vote!

    But I talked with too many folks who, if their kid gets the sniffles at school, if their car won’t start, if she burns the breakfast bacon, if he gets chewed out at work, if dad calls that mom’s sick, if they quarrel over the cat puking on the carpet — they’ll just forget about voting because other things in their lives are “just more important right now”. If they hadn’t already voted, there are just too many things that can come up on Nov.2 that’ll get them off their well-meaning, medium-informed tracks. I’m pessimistic all up (except for Hick) and down the line.

    Ah, well. There’s always 2012. Fall back, regroup, and let’s go at ‘em again. This time, I’m afraid I just wasn’t the Jedi I had to be.

  21. jeremyisaac says:

    Hick by 2… although when you start looking at the crosstabs in many recent polls Tancredo has a real shot.

    Buck by 4… this isn’t the year a dem below 50% is going to pull out a win when every poll has him behind (and a couple with it dead even)

    Suthers by 10

    Kennedy by 3

    Gessler by 5… the higher Republican turnout will sway this race since it hasn’t received much direct attention and most people will vote party line down ticket if they don’t have a compelling reason to do otherwise.

  22. DaftPunkDaftPunk says:

    Anyone who could claim that opposing Ken Buck’s troglodyte views on reproductive freedom is a form of religious bigotry and then state that Michael Bennet doesn’t care about the views of religious people because he isn’t religious himself is scum.

    • TimothyTribbett says:

      Regardless of the outcome he is a paid troll. He will be gone soon. Win or loose after tomorrow he will not be paid for posting and will loose interest quickly.

      I hope he proves me wrong because as a Democrat on this site sometimes I feel like I am yelling at myself in phone booth (except of course for you BJ). I do like civil political discourse. It makes us all stronger. But he will be gone.    

  23. d'Anconia says:

    Tancredo <1%

    Buck +5

    Tipton

    Gardner

    Frazier

    Suthers

    Buescher

    Kennedy

    R’s take State House +3

    State Senate – split to D advantage

    NM Governor, Martinez (R) +6

    National

    House – R’s pick up 55+

    Senate – hmm, D’s hold with 51-49, “best case” for R’s @ 50-50. Lieberman won’t switch, no realistic motivation regardless of final tally.

    The Tsunami is real, admittedly to the chagrin of the D’s. Ready for the slings and arrows, but we will know “the facts” in less than 24 hours.

  24. cologeek says:

    Buck

    Hick

    Suthers

    Tipton

    Gardner

    Perlmutter

    Stapleton

    Buescher

    Congress:  R’s gain at least 50 in the House, 8 in the Senate.

  25. Politically says:

    First, the State predictions…

    Sen.- Bennet, barely, possibly by recount

    Gov.- Hickenlooper, Maes under 10%.

    SOS- Buescher

    AG- Suthers

    Treas- Kennedy

    CO 1- DeGette

    CO 2- Polis

    CO 3- Tipton

    CO 4- Gardner

    CO 5- Lamborn

    CO 6- Perlmutter

    CO 7- Coffman

    I have no clue about the State Legislature, haven’t been watching it…

    U.S. Senate

    AR Sen.- Boozman

    AK Sen.- Miller

    CA Sen.- Boxer

    FL Sen.- Rubio

    IL Sen.- Kirk

    KY Sen.- Paul

    NV Sen.- Angle

    OH Sen.- Portman

    PA Sen.- Toomey

    WA Sen.- Murray

    WI Sen.- Johnson

    WV Sen.- Manchin

    Recounts possible in CO, IL, NV, WA

    Governors

    CA Gov.- Brown

    CT Gov.- Malloy

    FL Gov.- Sink

    IL Gov.- Brady

    MN Gov.- Dayton

    OR Gov.- Kitzhaber

    OH Gov.- Kasich

    RI Gov.- Chafee

    SC Gov.- Haley

    Recount all but certain in FL  

    “Vote early, vote often” is a quote variously attributed to three different Chicagoans: Al Capone, the famous gangster; Richard J. Daley, mayor from 1955 to 1976; and William Hale Thompson, mayor from 1915-1923 and 1931-1935. All three were notorious for their corruption and their manipulation of the democratic process…

  26. JLD says:

    Gov – election night says Tanc <0.5% recount goes to Hick – Maes at 6% holding just enough votes to keep Tanc out in the end – largely because voters like my buddy that rents out my basement voted all R’s not knowing to vote Tanc.

    Sen – Buck by 4

    CD1 – Fallon does better than anyone in decades but that just means he loses by 10

    CD2 – Bailey makes it more competitive than thought possible – meaning he loses by 9

    CD3 – Tipton by 2

    CD4 – Gardner by 9

    CD5 – Lamborn by 12

    CD6 – Coffman by 13

    CD7 – My call for the closest race but goes similar to Gov – Perlmutter comes back during the recount to win by less than 250 votes

    AG – Suthers in a yawner

    SoS – Wave carries Gessler (undeservingly due to poor campaign) to a 2 point win

    Treas – Stapleton by 1 – would be more except Kennedy has been a good treasurer but gets caught in the wave because of party line voting by Uaf’s that are rejecting Dems all over the ballot.

    State House – R’s gain control

    State Sen – R’s gain control

    US House – 62 seats go R

    US Senate – 9 seat swing – no Lieberman switch

    • cologeek says:

      He won by 23% in a race where Hal Bidlack ran with a lot of support and press.  I haven’t even heard the name of the Dems sacrifice down here this year.

      You must be really undercounting the R’s.  Totally invalidates everything you say. :)

  27. Progressive Promoter says:

    Sen.- Bennet by 1

    Gov.- Hickenlooper by 9…Maes gets less than 10%

    SOS- Gessler (this kills me) by 3

    AG- Suthers by 10

    Treas- Kennedy (could be projecting here) by 1

    CO 3- Salazar by 1

    CO 4- Gardner by 5

    CO 6- Perlmutter by 4

    Number ballot initiatives- All fail

    Will be jumpy until the results are in…

  28. jW says:

    Hick by 9, Maes > 10

    Buck by 2

    Suthers by 8

    Stapleton by 1

    Gessler by 4

    Salazar by 4

    Markey by 1 (recount necessary)

    Perlmutter by 2

  29. DaftPunkDaftPunk says:

    An interesting study, based on real numbers and statistics suggests that analysts are MSU about total seat losses not based on idividual polling in each race.

    Using current and historical seat rankings by the Cook and Rothenberg Political Reports as of September 28, I project that the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives, albeit with a considerably smaller margin than that enjoyed in the current Congress.

    Let’s hope!

    I still can’t stand the sick feeling in my stomach over the prospects of Senator Buck.

  30. ScoopJackson says:

    Hickenlooper/Garcia over Tancredo/Williams by 6

    Buck over Bennet by 2.5

    Stapleton over Kennedy by 3

    Gessler over Buescher by 4

    Suthers over Garnett by 7

    DeGette in a walk

    Polis over Bailey by 8

    Salazar over Tipton by 2

    Gardner over Markey by 4

    Lamborn in a walk

    Coffman in a walk

    Perlmutter over Frazier by 2

    Colorado House 34R 31D

    Colorado Senate 18D 17R

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