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November 03, 2010 08:33 AM UTC

Colorado Election Results: Late Night Open Thread

  • 265 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We don’t know how much longer we’ll be able to keep staring at this screen, so use this thread to keep each other updated on results as they come in.

For updated results, we recommend Fox 31’s efficient and effective results page.

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265 thoughts on “Colorado Election Results: Late Night Open Thread”

        1. 1st and Federal, good Steaks and Lots of Alcohol. Oh and the chef is Denver’s Steak Nazi. Know what you want and how you want it at order. NO dilly dallying.  

  4. Is there a tally of the composition of the new legislature somewhere?  I was looking at a righty blog that was saying the Rs were one win away from taking the state house.

      1. All precincts in, John Morse (D) leads by 132 votes out of 25,000+. Provisionals, certification, etc. to come, but most likely will hold up. 48.04% to 47.53%.

    2. Complain all you want about Gessler (its your right), but he is an accomplished election law lawyer.  Stapleton was born on third base, and voters apparently think he hit a triple (just like his cousins W, and Jeb).

      1. At all the wrong things–how to get around the intent of election laws, how to rack up fines and then ignore paying them, how to not represent those he agreed to represent. This is truly bad for the election process in Colorado.

  6. Like I said all along, Perlmutter won handily early in the night and Frazier proved to be a gracious sacrificial lamb. The supposed closeness of the race was all media narrative and no substance.

    I’ll take my kewpie doll now.

  7. Cary Kennedy and Bernie Buescher found their campaigns ignored by their well paid consultants at RBI Inc. and lost as a result.  RBI was interested in the big bucks initiative campaigns and did virtually nothing to help either Cary Kennedy or Bernie Buescher.  They will cry over Bernie and Cary losing all the way to the bank

      1. My thoughts exactly – just about all the rural counties are closed, but the metro counties are at best 2/3 completed according to the NYT graphics. More people voting + greater likelihood of voting for Bennett… makes me think Bennett may pull off a very close win.

  9. It looks like John Salazar will have to start charging people for pulling them out of ditches.

    That turns the Colorado delegation to the House of Representatives into a 4R and 3D split.

  11. CNN just called it for Scott Tipton.

    With Cary Kennedy and Bernie Buescher also going down in shockers,

    I am beginning to have doubts that Bennet will survive.

  12. 12:12 a.m.

    Fox site reporting total votes in the Governor’s race of 1,481,211.

    Total votes cast in the senate race 1,482,712.

    Undervoting in the senate race appears to be negligible to non-existant.

    Buck up by 9332.  (Charley Miller has received 9,440 votes.)

    1. They are reporting 35,000 votes less than they expected and less than 4 years ago.  If those votes are out there and they break 66/29 (like current results, that is a net 12,000 to Bennet, more than enough to make up his deficit.

    2. I think they use cuneiform ballots and have to wait for the clay to dry before counting!

      If you’re right, there is hope for Bennet yet.  Pat Waak said their numbers had bennet up by 1k.  That could be brave talk or it could be true.   I guess the cold light of morning will tell, but I can’t sleep.  I worked Bennet GOTV until 6:30p

      1. Boulder is reporting 86,231 votes counted (and none from polling places).  They had 120,000 votes in 06, and predicted 119,000 this year, presumably based on 06.  The current split is 66/29 Bennet.  If you apply that split to the 34,000 votes that may be out there, you get a net to Bennet of 12,000.  As I type this, he is down 8,000.  It could be the difference.

                  1. Romanoff not only basically begged his supporters to vote for Bennet, he also campaigned all over the state.  If Bennet didn’t turn out the vote, it’s his problem.  Your guy is going to win and somehow you’re still bitter.

                  2. Andrew did all he could to convince his supporters to vote for Bennet and it looks as if it helped to solidify his win. Andrew was a class act after the primary loss. Watching him discuss the race last night, I was impressed with his optimism on Bennet’s behalf.

                    I truly hope Romanoff continues in public service.

  16. I just counted the state house races and counted it as a win for who ever is leading right now.  Using that methodology the state house is 32 r 31 d and I can’t find jack on HD40 or HD 61.  It’s too late to think much harder.

  18. 71% Reporting…

    Buck – 721.2k (47.6%)

    Bennet – 713.1k (47.0%)

    Mesa results pushing Buck up a bit….

    Still waiting for remaining Boulder and Denver.

    1. i.e., waiting until they know the number they need;-)  See Robert Caro’s biographies of LBJ for details.  Seriously, I’m not suggesting fraud.  But Boulder year after year has been late as hell.  I’m hoping against hope that they are again and have about 10 Bennet votes in their final tally.

        2. There’s still nothing listed on the Boulder County Clerk & Recorder’s election website for numbers from polling places. Am I missing the place where these numbers are coming out?

          2. It doesn’t make a difference.  It has something to do with the optical reading machines they use; and a commendable desire to be completely accurate in divining voter intention on ballots which were overvoted or incompletely filled in.

      2. Luckily it was a slow day and I caught some “z’s” parked in the truck.  Odds are it would have been the same this time, but I don’t like to take chances.

      1. fyi, have you ever seen the original All the Kings Men, the Broderick Crawford, Mercedes McCambridge, John Ireland version.  It is light years above the Sean Penn version.  Get it from Netflix or a video store if you haven’t.

          “Whole World Willie Stark…”

  21. ….Prop 26 is passing, which will define “fees” as “taxes” – which is a big deal, as California’s TABOR-like Prop 13 has been abused, with fee increases

    Prop 26, for a Fiscal Conservative, was FAR MORE important than Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman

    I’m glad Jerry Brown won – I like his sincerity and I think he’ll do well

    1. I was just working my way through this same thing, and going cross-eyed trying to work with those darn NYT graphics. Next election, someone needs to post the raw data from all of these fancy sites so we can actually work with them.

      Now that someone has done the right math, I can finally get some rest. Thanks for the link!

    1. and Denver is running it’s system on a 16K TRS 80 Radio Shack Computer from 1980.   We tried to upgrade to a Commodore 64, but City Council felt it was more important to give the money to the Broncos.

        Hey, in a state with Doug Bruce and the Broncos, where mediocrity is an impossible dream, we are stuck with our ways;-)

      2. Valuable…in multiple ways. Hah!

        The aforementioned vacation days were wise. I can’t peel my eyes off anything. It’s the same thing every year, but it never earns incorporation into the ‘carve a day off’ column….

        1. But I did have a commodore 64 and a Kaypro cp/m 64.  And an Apple II.  Still have the Kaypro and Apple, just didn’t have the heart to throw them out (and I have a big house with lots of room for my toys.)  It is simply amazing that given the power of today’s computers, that Boulder and Denver seem content to count on their fingers and toes.

           

  31. From Nate Silver:

    I haven’t checked this in detail yet, but it appears as though the worst poll of the political cycle will be the Rasmussen Reports survey of Hawaii, which had the incumbent Daniel Inoyue defeating Cam Cavasso by just 13 points. Mr. Inouye is ahead by 55 points right now. If Mr. Inouye’s margin holds, the 42-point error would be by far the worst general election poll in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls since 1998; the previous record was 29 points.

      1. he cited the Pew data that Ingram did here, that polls without cell phones have a 4-6 pct Republican bias.  Likewise, robocalls like Rassy have a 4 point biast for Rs — that maybe the same thing as the cell phone bias because robocalls, by law, can’t go to cell phones.  But even deducting 5 points from Tanks Rassys, they are way off.  Silver tonight attributes that to zealotry bias…there aren’t many tank voters but they are men of furrowed brows and zealousy fill out surveys, while the rest of us go back to watching the Broncos lose 59-14 to Oakland.

        The only thing close to Rassy in the joke poll league is Magellan — a nother robocall, screw cellphones, outfit.

    1. My count of the House and Senate races show the Dems holding the Senate 18-15 with two races within 100 votes of each other (SD 11 and SD 16).

      In the House, the craziest of possibilities appears to be coming true. My count has it at precisely 32-32 with HD 61 being the balance. A Google search came up with a count that shows Curry coming up about 1000 votes short to both Wilson and Korkowski. But there seems to be no report from Gunnison County.

      However, there might be a large number of valid provisional ballots in HD 29 that would flip that race and make the HD 61 circus moot.

        2. I hope he hangs around.  He’s ardent, and always finds the glass half full.  But unlike beej, he doesn’t just make shit up and he doesn’t lie.  

    2. Maybe they came largely from Mesa? I think they only had 91% reporting up until a few minutes ago. Denver metro is now the only substantial holdout.  

      1. The people in elections did a heroic job getting all the vote center votes tallied (they came in very late) but what’s still out there is paper ballots from the vote center collection boxes.  They still have to be verified and won’t be counted until today.

        Email from Elections was time-stamped 12:46 AM.  They were up at 4:00 getting vote centers opened.  That’s a long day.

          1. or really early, depending how you want to look at it.  Either way, I think it’s time to hit the hay, after one more sweep through the various sites of course.

      2. but Denver and Boulder are not missing that many votes.  Boulder is missing about 35k, and Denver maybe 25k.  That would be 72% for Boulder (so far), and 85% for Denver.  These are educated guesses based on 06, but if they are close, there should be enough to carry Bennet to victory.

      1. As the NYT has up right now with “11%.”  Their precinct reporting has been screwy all night.  

        And since it took me about 5 tries to spell precinct right, it’s time to sleep.  

  45. When the People Republic of Boulder finally comes in, I think Bennet will pull it off — shud be 12k bennet votes there.

      But whatever, when this is finally over, let us all gather, march to Boulder, and horse-whip those idiots!  Election after election, they do this to us.

       

  46. it looks like it’s all up to Boulder now, if they come up with 35 k votes, at the same ratio their mail and early votes hit, bennet wins by a couple thousand.

      but win or lose, thanks to all you good bennet folks who worked so hard and so long.

  48. Since it might have been getting lost in the middle of a thread.

    My count of the House and Senate races show the Dems holding the Senate 18-15 with two races within 100 votes of each other (SD 11 and SD 16).

    In the House, the craziest of possibilities appears to be coming true. My count has it at precisely 32-32 with HD 61 being the balance. A Google search came up with a count that shows Curry coming up about 1000 votes short to both Wilson and Korkowski. But there seems to be no report from Gunnison County.

    However, there might be a large number of valid provisional ballots in HD 29 that would flip that race and make the HD 61 circus moot.

  50. Does anyone know how the precinct reporting works? To whom do they report, and when? Do they wait until all ballots are counted at a site and then send the numbers to some central location that then goes out to the media?

          1. For instance, in Boulder Co, they were expecting 119,000 people to vote. So as soon as 119,000 votes are in, they are at 100%, though there still may be more votes to come. Or, the numbers hold steady for a while if turnout is lower than expected, and finally jump to 100% with not much change in the actual counts.

            It seems if turnout is lower than expected (as people were saying about Denver), then we could be very off in doing projections as you  noted 538 did above. Or am I confusing myself?

            1. but IF you’re not an insomniac.

              Yes… but if you’re up at quarter to 3 am on a Wednesday morning, looking at returns and not getting paid.  You. may. be. a. politics. nerd.

              🙂

    4. http://www.denvergov.com/elect…

      If you look at the NYT Colorado page, they still have Denver at the 1am results, rather than 2:30am ones.

      No one seems to have done so yet.. and Boulder updated at 2:10 AM.. and seem to be doing so ROUGHLY hourly.. but didn’t add a lot of votes in the last update.

  55. Please end this election.

    Also, Baby Jesus, please tell Boulder that Buck can’t be leading in their county. I would also pray that the Arapahoe election judge not be a prick and try to reject people from the polls because “Rick” doesn’t match “Richard” on someone’s drivers license.

     

  58. Counties of Chaffee and Hinsdale,

    Hinsdale is tiny..  ~600 votes or so in ’04 and ’08, and split very evenly

    Chaffee is slightly bigger at roughly 9000 votes, but the margins were very small (a few hundred,) and it went red in ’04 and blue in ’08.

      2. and that seems improbable.  So El Paso could be done with, or if it really is 5% that’s 2,300 votes.

        Of course, if Boulder really is 64% done then its could be a lot more votes.. the margin is 32427 per the NYT site, and extropolating those would get to 50677 or a gain of 18k votes.

        So.. taking the precinct percentages with a HUGE grain of salt.

          1. values to the 2:30pm update… I’m not sure if it works proportionally for Denver but it it does, 7% more would be 5521 extra votes.

            It all will come down to the final counting in those two.

            Its AT LEAST going to be a recount now…  unless anyone can figure out differently.

        2. I was trying to figure out if the NYT numbers for votes in add up to the right amounts (~750K each) without including Arapahoe. I just eyeballed it, but I don’t think they do.

          There should be many more votes from Boulder though. This morning there was an article in the local newspaper about how they had huge turnout early this morning when the polls opened.  

  60. Only 56% of the vote in CD-2, compared to 70% in Boulder County for Hickenlooper and 66% for Bennet. I realize that CD-2 and Boulder County aren’t exactly the same, so maybe that explains it, but that seems like a significant gap.

  62. 3:23 AM ET Reports are indicating that neither Michael Bennet nor Ken Buck will be declared the winner in the Colorado Senate race until at least tomorrow. As the candidates head home, Buck is maintaining a slight lead with 73% of precincts reporting. However, as several outlets are reporting, the precincts that haven’t reported yet should leave the Bennet campaign feeling confident.

    As Slate’s Dave Weigel points out in a tweet, 89% of Arapahoe, 52% of Jefferson, 46% of Denver, 37% of Boulder counties have not reported their results, leaving a clear path for Bennet to close the gap with Buck and then some.

    Or you could listen to this guy

    Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight predicts a Buck victory of 3-4 points based on numbers in the remaining counties.

    3. Arapahoe is done, Denver has 7% left to report. Jefferson is complete.

      Only Boulder left.. although the 7% in Denver is already enough to push Michael into the lead, and Boulder would then be the Coup de grace.

  63. Don “The disabled are a burden. Public schools are communist” Beezley is besting Dianne Primavera in HD33.

    Beezley will expertly advance the vainglorious tradition of Dave “AIDS babies are a lesson to loose women” Schultheis.

    Seriously, Broomfield electorate, I’m looking at you. WTH?  

      1. Beezley’s a loon.

        “I used to own small restauarants [sic] shortly after ADA was passed. When building out a new one, the existing bathrooms were off in dimensions by a few inches. Rather than risking a lawsuit under the newly energized ADA, I spent $5,000 to redo the bathrooms (on a small budget with no money).  Prior to that, it had been a pleasure to help a disabled person out with a tray, a door or whatever. After that, I could only think, “you better use my d*** bathroom!” when someone rolled in. ADA took other human beings from being someone with a challenge whom it might be a joy to help, and turned them into a burden. An enemy.”

        Link.

        1. I was with OFA in 08, and we registered enough new Dems to turn the county slightly red to slightly blue (and got indies to vote blue in 08 also.)

          Unfortunately, down ballot candidates, are often not a high information voting situation.

          We did our best… The Don Beezley’s of this cycle are absolutely the result of Dem’s not being triumphant enough about their accomplishments… and pushing back on health care, stimulus and talking about the financial reform etc.

          1. I’d be interested in hearing your take about the down ticket communications failure once we’ve all had a chance to get some sleep and perspective.

            I’m just sick over decent Dems like Primavera, Rice and Gagliardi losing their seats while worthless benchwarmers get another free ride in the statehouse.  

  69. I can’t see Buck winning with 25% of Boulder coming in and 90% of Arapahoe..

    Currently at:

    Michael Bennet [D] 760,592 47%

    Ken Buck [R] 755,770 47%

    Recount will probably be expected.

  70. 760,592 to 755,770   per Fox and NY Times.

    At .6% the margin is outside the automatic recount, but Buck could request one within 24 days, should the margin stay at this level.

    Boulder is still counting, and can put the state out of reach.

    1. It has been a pain in the butt night trying to put results together, not only Colorado and Aurora but nationwide.  Colorado has its count, oops try this number, counting. At least that drove MSNBC screwy for a while.

  71. It puts Bennet at 771,939 and Buck at 766,371 – a difference of 5.5k which should equate to 0.3% if I’m calculating right (is it within 0.5% of all votes cast?).  I think we’ll get a manual recount unless something really amazing happens out of the People’s Republic.

  72. Someone needs to tell the comrades in the peoples’ republic how to run an election.  It is almost 12 hours since the polls have closed.  About 1/3 of the precincts in Boulder have still not reported votes cast at the polling place.  The numbers that are reported are as small as 1, and as large as 170.  My 10 year old could count 170 ballots in an hour, with both hands tied behind her back.  

    At least, it appears at this point, the late vote will only increase Bennet’s lead.

      1. voter suppression.  What’s Boulder’s excuse?

        (Just kidding, there is no excuse for what Doty did in Arapahoe.  Better a vote is counted late, a la boulder, than not at all.  I seem to remember Boulder is fanatical about using paper ballots and has been incredibly slow, like a week, in past elections.  for them, this is an improvement.    

  73.  – it may or may not be, see Arapahoe Country above –

    Buck has another 8,500 or so votes to come in from BC, and Bennet has another 20,000 votes still to come in.

    That’s an ~11,500 add’l. swing for Bennet.

    (Assuming the BC precincts yet to report mirror those already reported of course….)

    Realizing that Chaffee and tiny Hinsdale have yet to report and will both be Buck counties, Bennet has won – and perhaps by more than MOTR’s recount margin.  

    2. With total percentage of vote.  Boulder still has approximately 30% of its precincts left to report their ballots, but the uncounted ballots are only about 8 – 10,000 votes total, less than 7 percent of the total.  The confusion is that all of the precincts have reported their mail in and early ballots, which are the majority of the vote.  If current trends hold, Boulder will add another 5-6,000 for Bennet, and 2-3,000 for Buck, when they finally get around to counting.

      1. Let me correct my numbers.  Another 18,000 votes to be counted in Boulder, 15% of the total.  If trends hold, that will be 12,000 for Bennet, and 5 or 6 to Buck.

  74. Does anyone have an explanation for the strange results in the SoS race?

    50% Gressler, 43% Beuscher, and the SEVEN percent for the AC candidate? How does that make sense?

    1. I guessed the other way, too.

      Can you cry foul on the SoS race if your party was in charge?  Because if we can swing that, we should totally do it.  Might be a tad ironic.

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