Charlie Cook gives Democratic CD-6 challenger Joe Miklosi a most favorable heads-up:
CO-06: Mike Coffman (R) – Denver southeast suburbs: Aurora, LittletonToss Up. Democrats scored a huge coup in Colorado redistricting when a state judge picked a map moving GOP-leaning Douglas County out of the 6th CD and uniting the increasingly Democratic suburb of Aurora on Denver’s east side. Under the old lines, immigration-obsessed GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo used to win easily and President Obama got just 46 percent of the vote. But under the new lines, Obama’s share surged to 54 percent, putting a huge target on Coffman’s back. Suburban Denver has steadily trended Democratic, and the Obama campaign will be putting a huge premium on turning out favorable voters here, particularly among recent transplants and Latinos. By the numbers, this is absolutely a district Democrats need to win to get the majority…
Cook Political Report has a high-level view of many hundreds of congressional races around the country. As a result they make mistakes sometimes, like claiming that Miklosi has “only token primary opposition”–Miklosi in fact has none. The last time we discussed Charlie Cook back in 2009, it was to note similar minor but glaring errors he made in otherwise not-inaccurate commentary.
Minor fouls aside (we all make them), Cook is doing Miklosi a big service by publicizing his race with a national and politically influential audience. The most important fact governing this race, that CD-6 is no longer Tom Tancredo’s Republican stronghold, is still not widely understood by outside and even casual local observers. Cook isn’t as interested in Rep. Mike Coffman’s recent train of embarrassments, Cook is all about the math–and how the math has changed.
Miklosi needs the people who read Charlie Cook to know that part of the story.
As you said. Another case where the math wienies in Washington have never been on the ground but think they know a lot. BS. I know lots of politicians who are lying in the ashes of their math.Politics is a horse race. Math plays a big part, but it’s not the whole thing. As I’ve said before, Coffman will win. If this seat is one the Dems need to get a majority, congratulations to Speaker Cantor.
some really juicy scandal turning up. That’s what I think it would take but Coffman really does seem way too bland to oblige.
As you note, Cook isn’t exactly known for accuracy when it comes to facts on the ground in flyover country.
I do think Coffman and redistricting have given Miklosi a chance to improve on the stubborn 2 to 1 loss record for Dems in the old district and any positive buzz Cook provides to encourage more money coming in helps.
If this election shows strong improvement for Dems in decreasing the margin of GOP victory and if the seat becomes an open one for 2014, that would improve Dem chances of attracting a higher name rec candidate with some star power and serious targeted funds to push that candidate. That’s why I think volunteering for Miklosi is a lot more worthwhile than such efforts have been until now. On to 2014! I’ve seen it work just like that in my own HD. Also saw it swept away in 2010 but that’s another kettle of fish.
The stress of hiding from the media has to be substantial. If he does talk again, chances are he will be nervous, and he might be off his game. When he’s off his game, he shows his true colors, and that can only be good for Miklosi.
and in this case that is going to have to be door to door. I think Coffman has more than an edge, he has all the benefits of incumbency and Craig is most likely right
Miklosi has to get out there and hit it. Sessions over and he has to make himself very visible and get people on the ground.
Sure the money situation puts him at a disadvantage, but as someone said here Meg Whitman outspent Jerry Brown 5 to 1 and lost, so it can be done.
Joe has to go out and do a “give ‘em hell Harry” campaign like Truman did in 1948. He ought to be hammering issue points like the Fed report of last week that confirmed the middle class has lost 38% of it’s wealth since 2007.
Remember, “it’s the economy stupid” and polls still blame Bush for the bad economy. Joe should be asking CD6 voters if they want to go back to the same policies that collapsed our economy, gutted the wealth from the middle class, while giving the rich tax breaks.
is a great idea. Take note, Miklosi campaign.
Large national dollars will continue to pour into his already huge warchest.