Romney Losing Traction In Other Swing States, Too

18
  by: Colorado Pols Fri September 14, 2012 at 4:55 PM MDT

On the heels of yesterday’s Onsight/Project New America poll in Colorado showing President Barack Obama with a growing edge over challenger Mitt Romney–especially among the key bloc of unaffiliated voters–the Los Angeles Times reports this morning on new polls out in the fellow swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire:

New polls in four battleground states show President Obama holding a lead of 5 to 7 points over Republican nominee Mitt Romney, reinforcing the national surveys that indicate that the incumbent gained ground with his convention last week.

Of the four, Obama’s largest lead comes in the critical state of Ohio, where he leads Romney 50% to 43% among likely voters, according to the latest NBC/Wall St. Journal/Marist University poll.  The survey also polled likely voters in Florida, where Obama led 49% to 43%, and Virginia, where he led 49% to 44%.

In a separate survey by New Hampshire’s WMUR-TV, Obama led Romney 45% to 40% in that state…

The new swing-state polls show two reasons why Obama has maintained that lead: Voters continue to view him more favorably than Romney, and Romney has been unable to persuade swing-state voters that he would be better able to handle the economy.

There’s a worthwhile caution in this story about the timing of these polls, and the possible temporary nature of Obama’s “convention bounce”–with the implicit acknowledgement that Romney never got one. With that said, the persistent and growing favorability gap between Obama and Romney, and ongoing weakness for Romney on the handling even of “core GOP issues” like the economy, is a common thread in all of the polling we’ve seen this week.

Those underlying facts suggest a trajectory, not a “bounce.”


Full story: Romney Losing Traction In Other Swing States, Too

18 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. parsingreality says:
    Fri September 14, 2012 at 5:13 PM MDT

    ….Obama still wins all of them.

  2. Diogenesdemar says:
    Fri September 14, 2012 at 6:03 PM MDT

    Willard, is that while occasionally every politician shoots themselves in the foot, the damage can be minimized a bit if you first remove your foot from your mouth before pulling the trigger.

    The lesson for Republicans — one of these days you’ve got to insist in an entire field of qualified candidates.  Choosing the least of the crazies doesn’t get it.  

  3. dwyer says:
    Fri September 14, 2012 at 6:06 PM MDT

    I think the polls were taken BEFORE the recent problems in the MidEast.  I don’t know if that will make any difference and if so, in whose direction.

    • GalapagoLarryGalapagoLarry says:
      Fri September 14, 2012 at 6:56 PM MDT

      Considering the president already leads Romney by double digits in the “Who do you trust handling foreign policy” department,

      and there doesn’t seem to be a groundswell of support in the country for even more war (especially among women),

      and Romney has so badly and stubbornly bungled his reaction to the current crisis,

      and even Republicans have characterized his campaign’s attacks on the president as craven political opportunism,

      I’d expect a post-crisis bump for the president. (Of course that assumes a sane electorate.)

    • BlueCat says:
      Fri September 14, 2012 at 8:35 PM MDT

      Sept 13 at RCP, latest polls.  Those show Obama’s lead holding so far.  It’s still very recent so I’d give it a few more days to see where the fallout for each candidate gels.

      So far, in general. Obama’s bump has had legs. Romney’s faded almost immediately. The generic congressional has shifted to advantage Dems in a small way but, once again, with some legs, after a very long period of small advantage Rs. While this doesn’t have as much meaning as presidential polls since people often vote for their own incumbent regardless of a general preference for the other side, it’s better than a general R advantage.

      It has been my sad experience to get hopeful for Dems when they have come very, very close and even crossed into a tiny occasional lead in polls close to elections, only to see the R win no matter how small the lead as long as the R’s lead has persisted over time with only occasional small deviations. So the persistence of small leads in the majority of individual polls, averaged polls, nationally and in more than enough swing states, in likely voter polls as well as registered voter polls… it’s  an encouraging sign.    

  4. harrydobyharrydoby says:
    Sat September 15, 2012 at 1:13 AM MDT

    That partisan hack, Ben Bernanke, is trying to pump up the economy and create more jobs, in a complete betrayal of American (er, GOP) values.

    • ArapaGOPArapaGOP says:
      Sat September 15, 2012 at 1:35 AM MDT

      You don’t think pumping the economy with printed dollars right before the election is a coincidence?

      You’d have to be a fool to think it’s not. Of course there are politics in play. It’s not necessarily wrong for things to be political, though the voters will, as Pols said, “render judgment.”

      • Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising says:
        Sat September 15, 2012 at 1:40 AM MDT

        The Fed board members are trying to, you know, DO THEIR JOB rather than playing politics.

        Two of their four mission points are:

        conducting the nation’s monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates

        maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets

        Or is it that you’ve joined Mitch McConnell and other elected GOP leaders in suggesting that the main point of governing should be returning Republicans to power?

      • harrydobyharrydoby says:
        Sat September 15, 2012 at 1:58 AM MDT

        … something to do with Monetary policy having it’s limits. Since the rate of inflation is below the 2% target (even though our esteemed state treasurer was sure 2 years ago that hyperinflation was just around the corner), and the economy is below 2% growth, I’m pretty sure that Bernanke, who has been telegraphing this move for months, is pretty much doing his job.

        Since Wall Street began to wobble in 2007, the Fed has been engaged in an enormous effort to stimulate growth. The central bank has held short-term interest rates near zero since December 2008. To further reduce long-term rates, it has amassed more than $2 trillion in government debt and mortgage-backed securities.

        While the Fed’s actions, which included so-called quantitative easing, helped prevent a second Great Depression, the recovery in the United States and other developed countries was tepid. The Fed repeatedly announced that it had completed its work, only to launch new efforts as the job market remained sluggish.

        .

        .

        By 2011, internal divisions appeared to limit the Fed’s ability to pursue more aggressive measures, and Congress ignored appeals from the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, for fiscal action to support the economy.

        If a few GOP candidates running on Vulture/Voodoo economics lose their jobs so that millions of Americans can get jobs, I think that’s a more than fair trade.

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