Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling puts Barack Obama over 50% in Colorado:
That represents a three point improvement for Obama since Labor Day weekend when he had a 49-46 advantage.The key for Obama in Colorado is that he’s neutralizing or even holding a small lead with some of the groups he tends to struggle with. For instance he’s actually slightly ahead, 49-48, with white voters and when you add his typical 65-29 lead with Hispanics to the mix it gives him his overall healthy lead. He’s also leading 51-46 with men to go along with his usual advantage among women, 52-44 in this case. Romney does have a 52-45 lead with seniors but Obama more than offsets that with a 58-38 lead among voters under 45…
Romney did not help himself with his ’47%’ comments earlier this week. 38% of voters said his sentiment made them less likely to vote for him, compared to only 27% who consider them a positive. Romney trails Obama 51-41 with independents [Pols emphasis] and Obama is also benefiting from a more unified party with 91% of Democrats supporting him compared to 86% of Republicans who are behind Romney.
Here’s the full memo.
How bad is it this time.
These numbers are just shocking, last time Dems made the devil of mcCain and Palin. This time there’s no woman on the ticket to vilify.
The GOP is as anti-woman as can be. Yet somehow poor ol’ Sarah Palin was “vilified.” I guess that’s what Katie Couric was doing with that softball interview Palin completely flubbed.
Here’s a clue for the clueless Libby: Republicans can not play the victim card because they have not been dealt it.
have you found the roll calls for all those GOP jobs bills you mentioned yesterday?
for your ilk, this election is all over except for the miscounting . . .
. . . better luck, never.
Rasmussen is biased by 2 pts toward the Republicans because their likely voter model has a higher percentage of Republicans than the other models. The main reason for this is that they use 2010 turnout, which was a more Republican year than 2008.
In addition, Rasmussen uses likely voter models throughout their polling, not just in September like the other pollsters.
So Rasmussen’s consistent bias can be evaluated based on what other things we know:
Will 2012 be more like 2010 or more like 2008?
Has the demographics of the State changed?
How many moderate Republicans have abandoned ship?
And another chart excluding Gallup & Rasmussen:
Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo explains that Gallup and Rasmussen are probably using a 2010 voter turnout model, just as I mentioned earlier.
Partisan Bias can also appear in polls released from the candidates; obviously there is a tendency to release favorable polls over those that are unfavorable.
The purpose of Rasmussen seems to be for building a media narrative about heightened Republican chances. Maybe somebody thinks this is useful, but gaming the polling this way does a disservice to Republican donors who are thereby encouraged to throw money at losing campaigns. The value to Democrats is to encourage us to work harder.
Why? This is the kind of media bias that gives fuel to the right wing nuts. It also is dangerous because it could lull dems into thinking the state is won…..most national polls consider Colorado a toss-up.
They posted the NYT/Quinnipiac poll that had Obama up 1. But I would disagree that “most” polls have CO as a tossup. Three of the past five show Obama growing a pretty solid lead.
9/23 PPP: Obama +6
9/18 Purple Strategies: Obama +3
9/17 NBC/Marist: Obama +5
9/17 Quinnipiac: Obama +1
9/14 YouGov: Obama +5
Rasmussen had Romney up 2 on 9/17, but they appear to be the outlier (shocker.)
Democrats may be getting lulled into an “it’s over” mentality, but you’re wrong about the polling. And if the polling keeps up like this into October, then it really will be over. There’s not really an indication that it will, but Romney is clearly self-destructing right now.
There was also a Denver Post poll last Sunday that had the race tied or else Romney ahead…..I know there is a problem with referring to the Post.
You have to look at the overall polling picture, which, even if you take into account Mark Mehringer’s poll and the SurveyUSA poll (thank you for reminding me, I forgot about that) still shows CO as more leans-Obama than tossup.
If there are 4 polls that show a tied race, and 4 that show Obama up 3-6 points, then the edge has to go towards him.
There are three questions to ask:
1) When were the polls taken. Before or after Libya?
Before or after the 47% stupidity?
2) What trends does the poll show…compared to earlier polls by the same organization?
3) What is the margin of error?
Now, I am not arguing that Romney is going to take Colorado. I am arguing that ColoPols should post ALL polls that include or are based in Colorado?
Also, the situation is still very fluid…all last week, MSNBC was not including Colorado when it highlighted
selected swing states. Now it is.
Here, Dwyer:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…
Detailed information including state-by-state probabilities, projections, and comprehensive polling reporting . . . (check down the right hand side, and you can select a state, and by clicking more you can see most of the current polling data).
As an added bonus, this engaging site is more entertaining than any Broncos game, and less mind rotting than any Peter Boyles broadcast . . .
. . . my pleasure.
whyichangedmyvote.com or something.
When I opened the page manually with autofill, no problem.
When I tried the link again, no problem.
Weird.
Answer them, and you shall find the answer to your questions. Crazy how that works.
While Colorado is considered a toss up state according to poll averaging at various sites, such as RCP and others, because of the small size of his leads in polls here, pretty much all polls, left, right, what have you, have long shown Obama ahead, though some show a lead as small as 1%. Failure of polls to find Romney with any lead, not even 1%, has been both consistent and persistent over time but Dems are hardly in a mood to become complacent over small leads.
I don’t personally know any Dems saying that we can relax because Obama has Colorado in the bag. I do know plenty who are cautiously optimistic, which is reasonable considering the plethora of polls that show a 1% to 5% lead, with no major polls showing a Romney lead.
I would say the number of Dems who don’t realize it’s dangerously close and could still change is tiny. That said, there’s no rational reason to discount the positives here altogether. Chicken Little is just as silly and unhelpful as Pollyanna.
Look, I appreciate the thoughtful replies. But, my original comment was that:
That is all. I was critical of selective posting of polls..that tended to show Obama in the lead.
in Colorado so colpols can’t very well post them. They can’t just make one up to be fair and balanced.
TPM summary of recent CO Presidential polls
Romney’s had exactly two poll leads here since June – the recent Rasmussen poll, and an early August Q-poll. Even SUSA and ARG (both pollsters with an R-leaning sample) have Obama up. TPM has Obama up 2.9% in the overall average. RCP says 2.3%.
If you want every poll released to be FP’d, we’re going to have a lot of poll diaries in the next few weeks.
Was supposed to be a response to dwyer.
This poll showed Colorado trending towards Romney.
The data is now aging because the situation is so fluid.
I do not understand why it is necessary to suppress or obscure information that it not favorable to Obama.
You all must be scared stiff.
I note that the PResident has said that if re-elected, he will make an effort to speak to the American people and keep them more informed. I feel vindicated. At least, someone is listening.
Why didn’t any of our three front page diarists promote the diary by Mark Mehringer that still populates the side bar? Who knows, but you can’t lay this strictly on the dead guvs – others passed it over, too. Hell, you could have at least linked to the diary the couple of times you complained about it.
I guess the other reason is that Peak Campaigns doesn’t turn up in the various poll aggregation sites (RCP or TPM PollTracker), so it’s left out of the averages.
I expressed an opinion. I didn’t ask why they didn’t post it. I said I thought it should be on the front page. I thought that when I first looked at it in the middle of the night, it was on the front page.
No special wiki type shortcuts – just copy the link and use <a href=”link_URL“>some link text</a>
next time
1) Fix The Big line.
2) make links easier.
3) Shut up the asinine critics who just won’t listen.
The one with the ‘y’ first, or the one with the ‘w’ first?
Just kiddin’, dwyer. I personally think your viewpoint is an added benefit to the site; some people don’t like to hear the cynical side of things.