New Big Line Next Week

The 2014 campaign season will be two weeks old next Tuesday, so it’s time for us to get moving.

Make your comments, questions, nominations, etc. for what should be a busy cycle in Colorado; 2012 seemed busy, and we didn’t even have a race for a major statewide seat!

Senate, Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer are all up again in 2014.

 

33 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. davebarnesdavebarnes says:

    Diana DeGette (0-10)

    Jared Polis (1-9)

    Ed Perlmutter (2-8)

  2. DaftPunkDaftPunk says:

    60/40 I’d guess.

    They have to try.  Their egos wont let them fail.  Reality might.

  3. Dan WillisDan Willis says:

    Dems possibly looking at it:

    Mitch Morrissey

    Stan Garnett

    Don Quick

    Republicans possibly looking at it:

    Don’t know them as well. I would think some of the DA’s would be interested.

  4. Politically says:

    He could run against Gessler or Stapleton and be a very formidable opponent. CD-6 could also open up if Coffman runs against Udall as some insiders have speculated.

  5. OrangeFreeOrangeFree says:

    Senate

    Coffman was the presumptive nominee, but he got >50% against an empty shirt. One of the positive sides of the Mikolsi loss was that i took ol’ Mike out of the game for the 2014 senate race against Udall.

    GOP will need to either run Gardner or a woman to even have a shot at Udall, who starts out in front in a race that’s his to lose.

    Governor

    Hickenlooper’s nearly an automatic lock for re-election. GOP will run a token candidate, probably a self funder so state party money can go to trying to take back at least one chamber of the Legislature and keeping hold of the other two state-wide offices.

    Attorney General

    Buck looks like the early favorite to take the GOP nod – which is great because 2010 foibles will be dredged back up, especially if personhood is back on the ballot.

    Garnett, Morrissey and Quick are all plausible candidates, and two will probably emerge to run in a primary. My guess is Garnett and Quick go for it and Mitch plays kingmaker.

    It’s a horse race either way.

    Secretary of State

    Starting with the obvious: Gessler gets re-nominated.

    As for the Dems, here’s a long shot: Scott Martinez. 1) Up-and-comer in the party 2) Drew the re-districting and reapportionment maps so can call in some chits from party mucky-mucks 3) Private and public sector experience + #2 City Attorney in Denver 4) Latino

    Will also be a horse race. Gessler has pissed off a lot of folks and you can certainly hang “vote suppressor” around his neck. But he’s in front right now of whoever gets the Dem nod, and still probably a slight favorite to win.  

    Treasurer

    No idea. Dems don’t really have a deep bench here. Either way, Stapleton has stayed out of the news the past year or so and will continue to do so. Favorite to be re-elected.

    Congress

    Every member of congress is more than likely assured re-election if they want it. Coffman might be in trouble, but incumbency will always remain a big asset unless the Dems run a Romanoff or Carroll

  6. Duke Coxdukeco1 says:

    there is a rumor (and probably just that) running around Mesa County that State Senator Steve King is considering running for Mesa County Sheriff…anyone have the skinny on that gem…?

  7. …I’d give another good run at State Treasurer or Tipton/CD3 (but this time, as a PROUD DEMOCRAT)… but I’m having way too much fun finding my niche in Los Angeles.

    Don’t worry guys – 2014 will be our year! Plenty of good Democrats out there.

    I will say – I wouldn’t mind seeing one of our well-spoken Latinas (Crisanta Duran, Deb Marquez) run for statewide office… and of course, I’m a Morgan Carroll groupie and I think she walks on water… that’s my 2 cents.  

  8. MADCO says:

    Mostly backward looking- but what no Don Maes comeback?

    No Jane-couldda-won-if-only Norton ?

    No Ryan Frazier comeback? (sorta implies he was already …someplace he never was.)

    I would love to see Coffman v. Udall.  More fun than even Buck, and that guy was fun.

    And everyone picking Hick as a lock- you’re forgetting the happy lessons of Ken Salazar, Janet Napolitano, and Kathy Sebelius.  

    As for CD6 being totally in play- look at the local districts that live in CD6.  Not a lot of blue wave winners. Dave Balmer is apparently as safe as safe can be. No way to explain that one. Spencer Swalm?  McNulty? and a dozen others in state and county seats.

  9. AndrewBateman says:

    They already released the first polls for the 2016 New Hampshire primaries. Christie and Clinton are leading.  

  10. cdsmith says:

    Name was Ken Gordon.  The party’s treatment of Gordon, both before and after his very narrow loss to about the strongest Republican candidate you could imagine, was hideous.  High profile Democrats essentially dropped his campaign off the list of priorities because they were afraid he might prioritize fairness TOO much over partisan interests.  Then we had Bernie Beuscher, who was also a strong candidate, but had the misfortune of running in 2010.

  11. Dan WillisDan Willis says:

    But they would be stupid if they didn’t already have someone in the wings.

    Maybe one of the county clerks?

    No one from the legislature come to mind immediately. The few that are well versed in the duties of the SoS are probably considered too partisan to get elected.

    Buescher ran a lack-luster campaign in 2010, would be nervous about going that route again. Ken Gordon did about as well as I would expect him to do in a statewide race in 2006. That one would be a hard sell again too.

    There is also the possibility that it could be an open seat. If the investigations into Gessler get to be too intense he may choose not to run again. Then the question would be who the GOP would run. They have a deeper bench of clerks to choose from.

  12. Jones Smith says:

    2006 was a banner year for Democrats. Cary Kennedy came out of nowhere to win the Treasurer spot – mainly because Ritter’s coattails were huge that year. Ken Gordon is one of the most egotistical and self-indulgent politicians in Colorado. It’s no surprise he screwed up a real race once he had one on his hands.  

  13. parsingreality says:

    ….meaning the new Florida 71 Congressional district, the Dem candidate was, or the most part ignored by the state Dem leadershipl  Adam Terbrugge, a very qualified man that lives mayb 600′ from me, was essentially ignored by the state party.

    For instance he found out about meeting of candidates well after the fact.

    I’m not smart enoug to understand all these intricacies in politics, but when a state party shunts a valid candidate, I’m both angry and puzzled.  

  14. VoyageurVoyageur says:

    but in the end came across as too cute.  His swimming with sharks commercial was good but in the final shot, he’s in a business suit and it cuts back to show him in swim fins and bathing trunks.   Just goofy.

      That aside, Ken would have been a fine SOS.  Bernie was a fine SOS.  I hope Bernie will run again.

  15. JeffcoDemoJeffcoDemo says:

    That might force Pubs to tip their hand and show their 50′s era view of woman.

    Or they will realize that’s going to happen anyhow, they just can’t stop themselves as we saw this cycle.

    Like Buckpedal said in the post a few days ago, only a small handful think this is important to women anyhow.  Really Ken??

  16. thiokuutoo says:

    CD6 should be in play now that Coffman will have some record to show his true bias against the majority in Aurora. Someone with strong Colorado House and Senate followings could blast him off the ballot.

  17. Gilpin GuyGilpin Guy says:

    Gessler is beatable in 2014.

    Dem pickup opportunity.  

  18. ClubTwitty says:

    Dems can finish the sweep in 2014.  Gessler especially–other than being a (failure at being a) partisan hack what is his other accomplishment?  Incompetence.  Sounds like a cake walk.  

  19. Duke Coxdukeco1 says:

    going to announce?    :)

  20. Duke Coxdukeco1 says:

    but I was very impressed by him.

  21. thiokuutoo says:

    Garnett would be a fine State AG.  

  22. OrangeFreeOrangeFree says:

    screwed up my less than-greater than’s

  23. thagaycowboy says:

    Senate- I do think Udall is still the favorite. PPP did a poll recently that had him 11 or 12 points in front of all challengers except for Bill Owens who has too much baggage to come out of retirement. Jane Norton could be formidable but I think she is over it. Cory Gardner would give Mark a good race but couldn’t win. I think this will likely involve another GOP sacrificial lamb. The front runners for this are Bob Schaffer and Bob Beauprez.

    Governor- No contest here. It would be kind of amusing if Beauprez ran for Senate and Schaffer ran for Governor. I wonder if they both are tired of losing though.

    Attorney General- Ken Buck is already campaigning but if the Repubs are smart they will pull out all stops to defeat him in the primary. Cynthia Coffman would be an excellent candidate to do just that if they can hold their noses and stomach a moderate woman. That being said if Buck runs, it is the Dems to lose and if she runs the Dems have a 50 percent shot at best. But, I rarely count on the Republicans to listen to reason.

    I think that Stan Garnett is absolutely posturing himself to run. No word yet on Don Quick. I have no idea who would win that primary. I do know that Stan is more popular in Democratic ranks because of his stance on marijuana and generally liberal positions. However, Don is seen as a center-left pragmatist a la Hickenlooper and would have a much easier time winning a statewide race. Also, lets be clear, these two do not need Mitch Morrissey to win the primary. He is certainly not the kingmaker. In fact, he is not very respected in the legal community. If you’re looking for a kingmaker in this race, wait and see what the Governor does.

    SoS- Joe Neguse is running around Boulder Co. saying that he is likely going to run. I haven’t heard anything about Scott Martinez. Originally, Rosemary Rodriguez was thinking about running but I wonder if she could take the pressure. I know Gessler is despised in Dem circles, but this will likely be a Republican leaning year and if they want to take him out they will need to nominate a heavyweight.

    Treasurer- Stapleton wins unless Cary Kennedy tries to stage a comeback. He might even win in that case as well.

    Congress- 1, 2, 4, 5–all safe

    6- Only Romanoff can take out Coffman. But, I wouldn’t underestimate Morgan Carroll.

    3- Tipton is an incredibly weak candidate. Dems lost this district for 3 reasons last time. 1. Sal Pace doesn’t have local roots and connections, if John Salazar had run again he would have done much better. 2. Latino turnout was not maximized in this district. Look at the losses Dems sustained in Grand and Garfield counties and the lackluster numbers from Pueblo and the San Luis Valley. Fixing that would solve the problem. 3. They ran a man who was moderate in self-description only. Running a real moderate could take Tipton down.

    7- This race is safe so long as Ed Perlmutter stays put. If he decides to retire–which I doubt he will until a Senate seat opens up–they need a similar populist middle-class focused Democrat to run in this position otherwise they might lose. Rumor has it Ken Summers might try to stage a comeback here. That is tooo funny.

  24. Dan WillisDan Willis says:

    Some of the more financially minded legislators are facing term limits soon. Ferrandino comes to mind. At least I think he is up in 2014. Some of the other JCB types are in similar positions.

  25. unnamed says:

    That is funny. Ken didn’t seem to have his energy in a State Senate race where it was a 50/50 district against a candidate he was on an equal footing with in terms of pedigree.  Running in a blue-tilted district against an incumbent that has all the advantages of it would not be a better bet in any environment.

  26. The realistThe realist says:

    Garfield counties in reference to CD 3 – Grand is in CD2 not CD3.  I don’t know what the turnout numbers were for Latino voters in CD3, but I can tell you that with the exception of Summit and Routt counties, northwest Colorado is heavily Republican.

  27. Molly Brown says:

    She’s been pretty high-profile in her criticism of Gessler’s voter suppression efforts and has a good reputation.

  28. Colorado PolsColorado Pols says:

    The numbers are too competitive for either party to lock it down.

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