An insightful story in Sunday’s Durango Herald by reporter Emery Cowan:
La Plata County voters favored the president by a margin of 57 percent to 41 percent four years ago. This year, 53 percent of voters supported Obama and 44 percent of voters supported Mitt Romney…Only one La Plata County precinct supported Obama in 2008 but favored Romney in 2012. Precinct 29 in the northern Animas Valley supported Obama 54 percent to 45 percent in 2008. In 2012, 47 percent of voters supported Obama and 51 percent supported Romney. No precinct that favored John McCain in 2008 went for Obama in 2012.
The county’s Democratic tilt in every other race, from county commissioner to state representative, reverses a rightward drift in 2010 and more closely mirrors how the county voted in 2008.
The county favored Democratic candidate Mike McLachlan for the state House of Representatives by a margin of 54 percent to 46 percent. McLachlan, of Durango, unseated incumbent Rep. J. Paul Brown, of Ignacio.
Sal Pace, candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives who was beaten by incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton, won the county by a margin of 49 percent to 46 percent.
What you have in La Plata County are several factors that should favor Democratic election wins going forward. Arguably the biggest is the growing population and affluence of Durango, one of the state’s most educated cities. The county as a whole is likewise experiencing economic growth–both in liberal-favored industries like tourism, and energy development. But notwithstanding somewhat softer performance for Obama this year than in 2008, the trend toward electing Democrats in La Plata County shows little sign of slowing in the long term.
Among other things, that’s important because Rep. Scott Tipton’s CD-3 seat is, at least on paper, quite competitive. Tipton won more easily than expected this year, and that may make Democrats think twice about competing for his seat in 2014. That said, CD-3′s principal Democratic base is Pueblo, while Republicans more or less own Mesa County. Tipton’s ties to nearby Cortez are of course a strong point in La Plata County, and in a diverse district like this one, it’s important to not lose too badly in the places where you’re destined to lose. That can be as important, in fact, as running up the score in your base regions.
But even with that hole card in play, this is a battleground increasingly favorable to Democrats. Perhaps that will catch up with Tipton, or his successor, as it did J. Paul Brown.
Full story: La Plata County: Blue Bedrock For Retaking CD-3?
It seems like La Plata may be the place to find a Dem candidate since they are creating a bench. However, in terms of overall importance to the district, it’s fairly negligible.
La Plata only comes into play if the Dem candidate is able to win Pueblo County by a heavy margin (e.g. +15), which negates the heavy “R” influence of Mesa County.
The bottom line is that the GOP has a 30K advantage in registered voters. Any Dem candidate is going to have to be a conservative and have a fairly high public ID, which limits the potential candidates.
This is more about trends that will continue to develop, and could change the conventional wisdom. Remember that La Plata County’s population grew by over 16% from 2000-2010, now over 50,000. There are only a few combinations of CD-3 regional blocs that can add up to a win in the district as you say, but La Plata County is becoming one of them.
So that’s two more blue votes!