 A new poll out of Montana adds substantive public opinion data to the fear that Democrats chances of winning the Intermountain West would be significantly diminished if New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) becomes the party's presidential nominee. As the graphic at right shows, the percentage of people who say they are even willing to consider voting for Clinton is - by far - the lowest of any potential candidate. While this is just one poll from one state, Montana political landscape is fairly typical of much of the rest of the Intermountain West's - and that's why these numbers are so important.
Other details of this poll that are quite interesting:
- Al Gore's numbers are fairly decent, even in a fossil fuel-producing state where his global warming message may make him especially politically radioactive in some regional/demographic pockets. His numbers are, in fact, exactly equal to Newt Gingrich's. That's not saying all that much nationally, but in a strongly conservative state like Montana, it is surprising, and suggests that the far worse numbers for Clinton are less about a general antithesis to the past Clinton administration era, and more a specific antithesis to Hillary Clinton specifically.
- More telling about Gore's numbers are how largely they differ from Clinton's. His positives are 8 points higher and his negatives 8 points lower than Clinton's, which tells me that the antipathy for Clinton is fairly concrete.
- At least from this poll, it's fair to say that the antipathy toward Clinton is not about her East Coast home base, nor her Democratic party affiliation. Rudy Giuliani, the Republican and former New York mayor, polls quite well. So do other Democrats like Bill Richardson, Barack Obama and even Joe Biden. That's not surprising - as Ross Perot's strong showing out here suggested, this region's lack of support for Clinton may have less to do with regional or even partisan affiliation, and more to do with the region's lack of support for mushy anti-populist Clintonism preached by the Clinton/Rubin/Wall Street wing of the Democratic Party.
- This poll does not rule out (though also does not necessarily confirm) the possibility that the opposition to Clinton has something to do with her being a woman.
In his recent speech to the wreckage that is the Montana Republican Party, Colorado Republican chairman Dick Wadhams said this:
"I get a shiver down my spine every time I drive by the Pepsi Center knowing that in 2008 Hillary Clinton...Let's just see if these Western Democrats who proclaim themselves to be so different if they will actually show up in Denver and stand on that podium with Hillary Clinton in downtown Denver the last week of August in 2008."
Wadhams, as mentioned yesterday, is a pure political hack - and a fairly untalented one at that, despite reporters fawning all over him as if he is a direct, dynastic descendant of the Svengali, Rasputin and Rove blood lines. Wadhams, let's recall, is the guy most famous for helping commandeer leading presidential candidates into political oblivion, and having almost driven other Republican Senate candidates into the cliff known as early retirement.
But even a poor excuse for a political guru doesn't can read basic poll numbers and see that Clinton as the Democratic nominee could be a big anchor around Western Democrats' neck. Even someone like Wadhams can regurgitate the GOP polling points that he gets from his cronies in Washington, D.C. - the same ones printed in today's Roll Call newspaper, which reports that "Republican strategists look at the 2008 battleground map and instantly have visions in their heads of Clinton-themed TV ads and attack-mail pieces targeting vulnerable Congressional Democrats."
Whether the opposition to Clinton in this region is fair or unfair or motivated by ugly inclinations like chauvanism or not is up for debate. However, it's clear the fear of Clinton dragging the entire Democratic ticket down in this region is grounded in substance. How Democrats in the region should deal with that? Well, that could be a topic for an entire book - or at least another post in the future. |
