August 28, 2012 10:12 PM UTC

HD-29 Race No Longer "Worth Watching?" Blame Ramirez.

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• by: Colorado Pols

Although Arapahoe County’s HD-3 campaign between Dan Kagan and Brian Watson tops out the Colorado Statesman’s list of top legislative fights to watch this year, Jefferson County races still account for the lion’s share of the Statesman’s list.

2. Senate District 22

Democratic state Rep. Andy Kerr vs. Republican state Rep. Ken Summers (down from No. 1 last month)

This Jefferson County race pitting two three-term incumbent House members is the best chance Republicans have of taking away a Senate seat and eroding the Democratic majority in the upper chamber, but it’s a solid toss-up between two well-funded veteran campaigners in a quintessential swing district.

10. Senate District 19



Incumbent Democratic state Sen. Evie Hudak vs. Republican challenger Lang Sias (down from No. 8 last month)

Republicans took control of the House last time around in north and northwest suburban neighborhoods a lot like this Senate district and are looking to repeat the feat here, but the electorate will be different than in 2010 and it won’t be as easy to dislodge Hudak as strategists outside the district believe.

11. House District 28



Republican Amy Attwood vs. Democrat Brittany Pettersen (down from No. 4 last month)

After leading by most measures for much of the year, Attwood can feel Pettersen breathing down her neck in this Democratic-leaning district, one that Republicans have to win in order to keep their House majority. Because it’s crucial to GOP control, expect this to be among the hardest-fought by outside groups.

12. House District 23

Incumbent Democratic state Rep. Max Tyler vs. Republican challenger Rick Enstrom (down from No. 11 last month)

In another district, Enstrom could be measuring the drapes for his Capitol office already, but this Lakewood seat leans so heavily Democratic that everything is going to have to break his way to stay competitive, and so far neither candidate has stumbled.

Notably absent from this list is the HD-29 campaign between incumbent Republican Rep. Robert Ramirez and challenger Tracy Kraft-Tharp. That race had previously been featured in each of the paper’s monthly rundowns, but was removed for August because “Republican state Rep. Robert Ramirez continues to lag Democratic challenger Tracy Kraft-Tharp in fundraising by a wide margin” and “outside groups won’t have as much ammunition to hit Kraft-Tharp with as they did when Ramirez was the challenger.”

When the Statesman first premiered this list in February, HD-29 was labeled a “toss-up” and awarded the second spot. Back then, we wrote:

We disagree, however, that the race between Kraft-Tharp and Ramirez is a toss-up. Kraft-Tharp is outraising the sitting representative, after all. Ramirez’s brief exit from the House race only bolsters the perception that Kraft-Tharp is the candidate to beat, and that perception will only lead to increased fundraising. Luning’s right that the dynamics of this race may very well change between now and November – Ramirez will no doubt receive a healthy amount of outside support from those wanting to preserve the razor-thin GOP majority in the House – but we think Kraft-Tharp is currently enjoying a definite edge. Ramirez knows it, too.

Although the dynamics of the race could feasibly shift in the incumbent’s favor over the next two months, we don’t believe that the HD-29 race will ever make it back onto this list — if it even belonged there on the first place.

Ramirez, after all, is doing everything he can to ensure that Kraft-Tharp wins, raising pittance and making rookie mistakes. And, because he appears bent on making a complete and utter fool out of himself on the campaign trail, it’s unlikely Republican-aligned outside groups will do much to defend Ramirez, instead spending money on candidates who appear credible and won’t shoot themselves in the feet.