September 28, 2012 10:15 PM UTC

HD-29 Race Back on Statesman's Watch List

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• by: Colorado Pols

Late last month, the Colorado Statesman pulled the HD-29 race between incumbent Republican Robert Ramirez and challenger Tracy Kraft-Tharp off their monthly list of “Top 12 Legislative Races,” blaming Ramirez’s anemic fundraising and campaign trail mistakes for lessening the competitiveness of what was previously a must-win race for both Republicans and Democrats.

Ramirez’s not insignificant fundraising haul last period, however, gave the Statesman occasion to re-examine the race.

From Ernest Luning:

10. House District 29

Incumbent Republican state Rep. Robert Ramirez vs. Democratic challenger Tracy Kraft-Tharp (returning to the list after dropping off last month)

This toss-up district returns to the list this month after Ramirez – who considered a run against Hudak earlier this year but stepped back to let Sias have at it – posted some strong fundraising numbers and vows he’s in it to win it. Two years ago, this was the contest that handed control of the House to the GOP, and it’s still a top-targeted race by any measure, though few think it will wind up as close as the 197-vote margin that propelled Ramirez into office in a Republican wave election.

Who won the month: Kraft-Tharp sailed past the $100,000 mark in fundraising this month, though Ramirez is starting to catch up after a slow start earlier this summer.

HD 29 race profile:

Geography: Eastern neighborhoods of Westminster and Arvada

Active Democrats: 11,706 (33.2%)

Active Republicans: 11,389 (32.3%)

Active Unaffiliateds: 11,871 (33.6%)

Total active voters: 35,301

Hispanic population: 16.37%

• Bennet won the current district with 50.70% to Buck’s 42.37%; Kennedy won with 52.48% to Stapleton’s 47.52%; Bosley won with 47.38% to Hart’s 45.90%

• Ramirez raised $68,806 and Kraft-Tharp raised $112,196. through the middle of September. On Sept. 17, Ramirez reported $39,027 cash on hand, and Kraft-Tharp had $59,624. Total raised for this race through the middle of September: $170,316; total spent: $76,870.

Although we agree that Ramirez’s stronger-than-usual fundraising boosted his chances this month, re-election is probably still out of reach for the Republican. No matter how stridently Ramirez “vows that he’s in it to win it,” the fact remains that there are fewer five weeks left in this election. While the late-game fundraising injection certainly helped Ramirez’s campaign, it’s too little and too late to really move the needle in his favor. Put simply, Ramirez needed that money as a lifeline to stay relevant in the race at all, but he still lags far behind Kraft-Tharp with little chance of catching up before ballots go out in the next few weeks.

This race is competitive, if only because of the national political climate and the presence of outside groups, but Kraft-Tharp has held an advantage by almost every metric since she started campaigning.

Combine that advantage, as the Statesman does above, with the fact that Ramirez narrowly won in a non-presidential Republican wave year, and it’s clear that Ramirez’s single notable fundraising period won’t drastically shift the dynamics at play.

“Starting to catch up” doesn’t necessarily mean that you can catch up.