August 27, 2012 06:41 PM UTC

HD-3 is Statesman's "Top Race to Watch."

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• by: Colorado Pols

The race between incumbent Dem Dan Kagan and Republican Brian Watson is something of a bellwether race for the legislature this year. Because the House GOP is just one seat away from ceding the speaker’s gavel to Mark Ferrandino, Republicans simply have to win against Kagan in order to compensate for inevitable losses caused by both redistricting and horrible candidates. A Republican win against Kagan also presages victory in other competitive seats across the state: if the moderate Watson is able to beat the incumbent Kagan, Democrats like Max Tyler in Jeffco and Linda Newell in Littleton might also find themselves without an office under the golden dome.

It’s fitting, then, that the Colorado Statesman’s Ernest Luning lists the HD-3 race as August’s top legislative race to watch:

1. House District 3

Incumbent Democratic state Rep. Daniel Kagan vs. Republican challenger Brian Watson (up from No. 2 last month)

Both parties’ legislative campaign operations point to their respective candidates in this south-suburban swing district as their star contenders this year, and with good reason. Watson was the first Republican candidate to make the top-tier of the state GOP’s Trailblazers program, passing benchmarks in fundraising and voter-contact, and Kagan is regularly used as an example of the Democrats’ best fundraiser and organizer. Early returns from this district could portend which way Colorado is heading on election night.

Who won the month: Watson is already mailing into the district and whispers that he could be ready to unleash TV ads against Kagan, though Democrats counter that Kagan has the strongest field operation in the state.

HD 3 race profile:

Geography: Northwestern Arapahoe County, covering Englewood, Cherry Hills Village, Greenwood Village and parts of Littleton

Active Democrats: 11,535 (31.9%)

Active Republicans: 13,016 (36.0%)

Active Unaffiliateds: 11,264 (31.2%)

Total active voters: 36,154

Hispanic population: 15.91%

• Bennet won the current district with 50.25% to Buck’s 44.71%; Kennedy won with 50.94% to Stapleton’s 49.06%; Bosley won with 50.02% to Hart’s 44.80%

• Kagan raised $84,131 and Watson raised $134,895 through the end of July. On Aug. 1, Kagan reported $55,369 cash on hand, and Watson had $62,343. Total raised for this race through July: $213,706; total spent: $100,005.

Because Kagan is known to work the hardest when the pressure is on and because Watson appears to be doing everything right — no small feat for a first-time candidate, no matter how much party support he’s receiving — this race will probably stay at or near the top of the Statesman’s list for the remaining few months before the election.

That is, of course, barring the discovery of the proverbial “dead girl or live boy.“