Coffman vs. Romanoff Rated Among Nation’s Top Three Races

endangeredcoffman 

Analysis from U.S. News and World Report's Lauren Fox:

The showdown between Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and former speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives Andrew Romanoff is expected to play out in a demographically evolving district that once leaned Republican when Coffman was first elected in 2008, but because of a new wave of Latino constituents moving to the Denver suburb, is swaying in the Democrats' favor. President Barack Obama swept the district by 5 points in the 2012 election.

The rapid evolution of his district has forced Coffman to reevaluate his positions. The congressman entered the House of Representatives and pushed for legislation to nullify a requirement that polling stations provide ballots in more than just English. This year, however, Coffman stepped out and advocated for an immigration overhaul that would provide some kind of legal status for immigrants who entered the country illegally.

The two candidates have deep pockets with Coffman and Romanoff raising $1.6 million and $1.5 million respectively as of September 2013, and there is plenty of outside help.

With so much at stake, the race is expected to be about national issues with Republicans and Democrats both keeping a pulse on the fight. Already, conservative group Americans for Prosperity targeted the district with an ad thanking Coffman for voting against the Affordable Care Act, which has made headlines after the Obamacare website has been plagued with technical malfunctions.

Although this report does note the changing demographics confronting incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Coffman, for whatever reason the story fails to note the much larger impact on Coffman's district from the redistricting process in 2011. Colorado's CD-6 shifted in redistricting from one of the most solidly red districts in America–the stomping ground of former hard-right Rep. Tom Tancredo–into a truly competitive and diverse battleground. In 2012, Coffman faced an underpowered Democratic challenger, yet still barely managed to win re-election.

More than just demographic evolution, although that certainly matters, it is redistricting that has made Coffman one of the most vulnerable members of Congress going into the 2014 elections. Coffman got elected to Congress in 2008 by an electorate that couldn't be more different than what he faces today. There are lots of external reasons why Coffman is vulnerable, from abortion to the recent shutdown he helped bring about.

Factor in his post-2011 constituency, and Coffman is the political equivalent of a dead man walking.

21 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. n3bn3b says:

    What's the moral of this story? Thank goodness for gerrymandering?

    Congrats (slow clap)

    • ModeratusModeratus says:

      This time I agree with you. Democrats should love this story and not correct it at all, because to win by gerrymandering is not honorable. Colorado Pols is too far gone with partisanship to see when they are making a repulsive argument.

      • bullshit!bullshit! says:

        "To win by gerrymandering is not honorable"

        Gerrymandering is the only reason Republicans have a majority in the U.S. House. Look at the last presidential election compared to Congress.

        In Colorado we have competitive districts, and Republicans lose.

        • Hawkeye-X says:

          Gerrymandering is over, and what's more, both Moderatus and n3b will be on the super-minority of morons that will be dumped in favor of more sane people. 

           

          Republican Party now stands for anti-choice, anti-women, anti-Muslim, anti-gay, anti-color, and anti-justaboutanything except old white men that's already becoming a minority.

           

          You still want to join the decaying and crumbling garbage of what's left of your party?

    • Hawkeye-X says:

      The moral of the story, n00b, is that your ass is about to get a beating. A thrashing.

      Your party is over. 1460's called, and they want their shit back.

       

       

  2. ElliotFladenElliotFladen says:

    If he were a dead man walking this wouldn't listed as a competitive race. 

    • BlueCat says:

      First, the idea of  rightie criticizing gerrymandering is really droll since that's the only reason Rs hold the House. More Americans cast votes for Dems in the 2012 congressionals than for R. Texas is the poster child for gerrymandering, as are other R held states in which the districts look like a pattern of bugs spattered on a windshield.

      Second the redistricting deal Dems offered at the time here in Colorado was actually more advantageous to the Rs than the one the courts came up with after the Rs dug in their heels because they couldn't have everything they wanted. Coffman could have had a  safer district than he has now if it weren't for Rs

      As usual, you won't return to your drive by post to engage on either of the points I mentioned though you might drop by to yell "libtard." 

       

    • BlueCat says:

      Sorry, Elliot. Hit the wrong reply.  The above is for n3b. Here's the second surprise in two days. I agree with you, Elliot. He is no dead man walking but Dems do have an excellent chance, for the first time ever, to take CD6.  And you are correct that , in politics, dead men walking don't require huge expenditures. The right will fund to the hilt to keep this seat. I believe Romanoff will be the Dem candidate and that he will win but in a tough fight, not a walk. 

      Of course if polls start showing a building lead for Romanoff as the election season progresses, funds would slow for Coffman and be redirected to other competitive seats. Miklosi probably could have won had his strength in the competition, which was more a matter of Coffman's new weakening position, become obvious sooner. It was too little too late for him even though lots more was pumped in at the end and he did lose only by a couple of points.   

  3. horseshit GOP front grouphorseshit GOP front group says:

    Not just one flat earther, but two !  And first and second nonetheless !  Bestill my beating heart.

  4. DawnPatrol says:

    Absolutely LOVE the massive understatement embodied in the term, "has forced Coffman to reevaluate his positions."

    Yeah, 'cuz nothing says intergirty and honor and character and holding to one's "reel 'murikin" values like the political life-and-death necessity of having to "reevalute" them all at the point of a metaphorical gun!

    Ol' cowardly, dimwitted, deer-in-the-headlights Birther Mike is in for a Romanoff spanking, and I am going to be LOVING it! At last, to be rid of this corporate tool!

    • BlueCat says:

      I'd check some of that glee. Rs will fight tooth and nail to keep this seat and it will take a great campaign and lots of bucks for Romanoff to win. That said, I'm confident it will be a great camapign and there will be lots of bucks. Evidently no PAC doesn't mean St. Andrew is turning down all outside money.

      • DawnPatrol says:

        Duly noted; nothing's in the bank yet. But forgive us all some early euphoria at the mere possibility of finally dislodging this suddenly "selectively conservative" teabag barnacle, particularly having endured so many depressing years of his ideological soulmate T-Tanc before him!

        • BlueCat says:

          I feel you. Am looking forward to finally having a decent Rep after all these years living in CD6. I was in the old district and am in the new district, being a resident of the Littleton proper, all of which stayed in CD6. But let's not lose sight of the fact that it won't be a cake walk. We all have to volunteer, contribute and push, push, push. 

          • Duke CoxDuke Cox says:

            you might start , my dear, by not calling him Saint Andrew anymore…you know…one of those civility things.? smileykiss

            • BlueCat says:

              Hey it was the first time in along time. wink

              • BlueCat says:

                That would be "a long", two words. And I promise to be less "catty". I do want him to win despite my annoyance with anything that smacks of "holier than thou", especially from a politician. Considering the amount he's amassing he's clearly found a way to collect money that probably wouldn't pass the pure as the driven snow test while technically keeping his promise. And I'm damn glad because he's going to need piles of it. Politics ain't Sunday School.

  5. ClubTwitty says:

    That the American people are rapidly abandoning the Tea Party Nihilists is not called 'gerrymandering.'   And the stench is not just lingering around Rep Coffman, as the Durango Herald reports: 

    A new poll is showing widespread voter displeasure with U.S. Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Cortez, in the wake of the government shutdown.

    TiptonEnlarge photo

    Tipton

    Conducted by Public Policy Polling for MoveOn.org, a liberal advocacy group, the poll, released this week, found that 51 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Tipton is doing, and only 28 percent approve.

     

     

     

    The last time a sitting Congressman in CO's 3rd CD saw his approval rating below 30% we got a new congressman.

  6. Ray SpringfieldRay Springfield says:

    Coffman's ad disgusts me. Please call his ooffice and tell him what a loser he is for costing the USA 24 billion in lost revenue, and crippling businesses in the District of Columbia. Ask him to donate his salary, and his staff's salary to the businesses lost revenue, and refunding tourists who's DC vacations were destroyed by shutting down the government so that Ted Cruz could read Green Eggs and Ham. Tell his staff that you like Green Eggs and Ham, and hate the Tea Party.

  7. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Not all contributions for Coffman show up in his Q3 numbers (this didn't).

    Americans for Prosperity-Colorado is running a TV ad for Coffman, "thanking him" for his opposition to Obamacare. Apparently, they're trying to keep him from wiggling any more. I hope that this bites him in the butt.

     

     

     

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