CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 19, 2013 06:24 AM UTC
57 Comments
Today's Obamacare website news:
6 Months before launch the Obama Administration's own consultants warned them it was a mess.
Who knew? Pretty much everyone.
Will it be enough better by the end of this month. I doubt it. The stated goal is 80% of the applicants can complete the process. If it isn't overloaded. First off, a 20% failure rate will not be viewed as success by people.
Second, when they are still worried about overloading, that means they have some fundamental architectural limitations. If a program like this is competently designed (not awesome, merely competent), then spinning up more servers is all you need to handle more people. They must have some brain-dead bottlenecks in the code. And that takes time, and better programmers, to fix.
And what impact does this have. Pretty substantial.
The Obama Administration pretty clearly is incompetent. That's fair. Especially as he's kept the people who showed they're clearly incapable of doing this in charge.
The problem is he's going to take a lot of other Democrats down with him. He's pretty much killed any chance of taking back the house. He may lose us the Senate.
And anytime a Democrat proposes having the government address a problem, their Republican opponent will reply "you mean like the Obamacare website" and that will kill it. The fact that social security & medicare run well will be irrelevant. This will make selling any new government initiatives a very hard sell.
Remember how Dick Wadhams was the best present ever for us Democrats here in Colorado? It looks like Obama is now the best present ever for the Republicans nationwide. Our only hope now is the Republicans threaten the economy again in the spring and the website is working well enough by the end of the month.
No it isn't, Dave. Haven't they done anything right? That generalization is the kind of thing I expect to hear from one of our trolls, not you. This is your area of expertise. You are being as hypercritical as I would be if they were adding a wing onto the White House and didn't ask me to build it. All you have is the medias' story.
I'm going to pile on here, Dave. The President is no more incompetent than you are. You live in different worlds – each measured in different ways. While I have my own short list of things I'm critical of – they have all been political challenges, not practical ones. And trust me, I'm not the least bit happy with the Monsanto issue regarding the USDA Foundation inside the farm bill. I'll likely lose that battle.
I wish the President was less professorial and more Presidential on many occasions, but you, of all people, should understand some of the context of someone who was formed in a Hawaiian culture operates. He's faced five years of mass obstructionism, handed an economy that was in meltdown and a financial industry out of control. The 24/7 news cycle and the bobbing heads that live in this bubble [Washington, DC] only perpetuate the problems.
I think an 80% success rate would be historic. Based on what they know from Massachusetts, about 20% of the population will never use the internet. They use paper and phone calls and visits to centers – for a variety of reasons.
To fix most of these problems we need to get to the root of the cause. In this case it was two-fold. 1) federal procurement. We have to change those rules. But like the oil boys, the corporates who feed off that teat have no interest in change. 2) the defunding of the technology offices. Let's be clear, this failure has come from the private sector – these "contractors" are not government. They are, at least in theory, watched over by the government. The procurement rules allow almost unbridled cost-overruns, which are always paid.
His approval ratings are still 4x that of Congress, and he is in nearly the same range as Bush, Bush and Reagan at this same time [40% +/-]. Clinton is the exception to the rule.
So he's apologized [can you imagine if he issued an EO that stated insurance industies could not drop policiies???] and we'll move on. Unlike Iraq and Katrina – no body is dead. In fact, quite the opposite. The detractors to ACA will overplay their hand – they always do. Six months from now – and I would add, even if yet not 'perfect' – there will be a shift in public opinion. And the bobbing heads, both side of the media, will have moved on to yet another story complete with fake hysteria.
I say incompetent because it is fundamental to the signature legislation of his administration, it was totally under his own control, and they were clueless to the problems. And then add to that, they have left in charge the people who couldn't deliver it which shows no focus on getting better.
How on earth can you say they're competent when they were clearly totally unaware that their most important deliverable of the year flat out didn't work?
I have not quarreled with you on this issue, Dave. I believe the president to be a competent person. I am only taking exception to your projection of incompetency to every aspect of his presidency.
Oh, I don't disagree there. THere are numerous things that the Obama Administration has handled competently. And they clearly have a lot of very smart people there, including the president. I just think they're out of their league on some really important items.
This is like a well run political campaign with a quality candidate that does a lot right, but forgets to reserve TV commercials. So they have the budget but no available slots for the last 3 weeks of the election.
I think one problem right now is that if they fire Sebelius, Republicans will block all potential appointees to replace her. That's not a problem businesses have.
Replace her with someone clearly competent. For example, what if he nominated Bill Gates. He's devoted the last 10 years of his life to health issues, is respected across the board, and is clearly competent to manage a giant enterprise that delivers multiple software projects on time.
Honestly, David . . .
Obama could nominate Jesus [ . . . Benghazi . . . ] Christ himself [ . . . Syria . . . ], and He would not [. . . audit the Federal Reserve . . . ] get past a Senate filibuster these days . . . and, from what I have heard He, had a
greatreportedly competent plan [. . . XL Pipeline . . . ] for providing low-cost health care (. . . but, admittedly, you're probably in a better position than I to know anything about His programming skills). . . maybe Gates isn't interested? Why not offer yourself up? (You know you wanna'!)
Exactly. In this atmosphere getting anyone else approved would be such a long drawn out ordeal, it doesn't matter whether they'd like to or not.
I think Diogenesdemar makes a good point. I wish you could could be of help, and you cannot. This must be very frustrating for many in the tech community. They need someone like Bill Gates on speed dial. Apparently they don't, if they do, no one is saying.
Otherwise, I can offer up some of Churchill's words on never, never give up. I think that is what the administration is trying to do.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwrWUlq7Xk4
DC,
David is an expert on software, etc. I respect his opinion and I understand his frustration. The issue is not the media. The issue is how did this mess happen and how can it get fixed. I don't understand how the President was so unaware of a myrid of problems in his domestic administration. I really don't.
dwyer,
I am a builder.
For the last year and a half, I have built retail stores in malls, It is an unbelievably complex, ever-changing, stess laden, process that has a tendency to burn out superintendents and other participants in the industry. I imagine the pace has some similarities to the daily activity level in the White House.
Here is what I know.
Having built a number of prototypes, I can tell you that when you are creating something new or dramatically upscaling even something familiar, there are issues that come up that are not forseen (even with good plans) and, most importantly…mediocrity is hard to predict. The final result always results in a flurry of activity at the end, with what is known as a "punch list" at the end, fixing things.
Retail products go through endless testing and retesting before they "launch". It is a different dynamic, in my view.
I am not defending the web site problems with the ACA. I am only reacting to Davids' blanket assessment about the entire Obama administration, based on this one issue. Just remember how it would complicate a building project of someone (Congress and Wall Street, for this application) kept hiding your hammer and nails every time they got a chance.
President Obama has continued to work hard for the American people and I continue to have faith in him. I want him focusing on jobs, the environment, the economy, and social justice. If the health care thing takes a little while…no biggie.
…"if" someone…
I would wager Osama Bin Laden, were he not resting at the bottom of the sea, would say Obama is competent.
I appreciate your perspective. But, it is the President's responsibility to know what is going on, to be aware of the progress and whether what has been legislated is possible. He has the authority to implement a law that will impact virtually every person/household/business in the United States. He does not need blind loyalty. He needs honest criticism. There is no excuse, IMHO, for the President not to have leveled with the American public; not to be working all the time with the insurance companies.
Are you contending that it is virtually impossble for the website and AHC to work? The President's problems are not restricted to the AHC and its website.
The President claimed to be ignorant of the problems with NSA and IRS. Not okay. The NSA problem weakened the US with our allies.
No, dwyer. I am very disturbed about the NSA situation. But that is not germaine to my point.
Please address the issue of Davids' statement. If you believe the Obama administration to be incompetent, then you believe so of the man himself. I think it would be better if you and Dave would simply dispense with the nuance and say you think he is an incompetent president.
I don't know to what nuance you are talking about. Do not put words in my mouth. This was my statement:
I don't understand how the President was so unaware of a myrid of problems in his domestic administration. – See more at: http://coloradopols.com/diary/51767/tuesday-open-thread-41#comments
I do not think tht the President of the United States has the option of simply not being aware of what his appointed cabinet officers are doing within their respective agencies. Obama has not demonstrted that he is a competent executive as far as his domestic administration goes. I think that he was far more in control during his first terms. I don't understand what is going on. He has replaced many of his cabinet officers and senior staff from his first term. Maybe that was a big mistake.
I don't doubt for a moment the man's sincerity. Quite the contrary.
I don't know what the answer is….do you?
yes…patience… and trust.
By the way…
Do my comments to you represent blind loyalty… or is it challenging what I consider to be an unfair comment evidence of my status as "toad"?
one more thing…
please reread my comment…did you catch the part about the "punch list"…you know…the part about fixing things?
That all should have been done PRIOR to the launch. You don't get a certificate of occupancy while you are still "fixing" problems with structual safety, do you?
Yes…frequently. It is known as a TCO (temporary Certificate of Occupancy). They are quite common.
For structural safety… not usually. How do you relate the two? How does the ACA website equate to the structural safety of a building? You are stretching a bit far.
You are the one that compared building the ACA website to constructing a building!
Citizens have deadlines to meet in order to have continued insurance coverage for themselves and their families. It is still not clear how that is going to happen. For families with pre-existing conditions and/or little children this is one " big f*#king deal."
I have family members who are worried about this whole fiasco and not sure how they are going to be covered.
With the holidays coming up, time is of the essence.
Yes- and if the website is not working for them, they will have to (gasp!) pick up the telephone and speak with a person (the horror!). They can meet their deadline – just not through the website, one of only three ways to get done what needs be done.
It's a big deal. It should work. The optics of it all are messy and bad. But the website is not the ACA.
"For structural safety… not usually."
Well, that is reassuring. Just for the record, you want to give us addresses of those building with the TCO?? :))
Structural issues are resolved by inspection long before the CO is ever considered. Punch lists are for cleaning up bugs and incidental cosmetic and function issues. One cannot get a CO with outstanding life safety issues.
The structural safety of the nation does not hinge on the ACA website. Yes, it is important to many individuals, but it does not warrant the hysteria and criticism you seemed determined to heap upon Barack Obama personally.
One would almost get the impression you don't like the guy.
What? I believe you are overreacting.
The President has some problems…denying them doesn't help anyone…least of all the President…..
See above…8:18 AM…today.
Salaam alaikum…
The vast majority of the ACA has already been implemented. ACA is a set of federal standards that private industry must adhere to, not a "product".
From Dennis Webb over at the other GJ paper. In a story about the slowdown of the O&G activity in the western part of the state:
Notice there is no mention of environmental activism, rules, or the like…It (activity) has always been about the price and supply, nothing more. The O&G business is about investors' money.
If you think otherwise…don't kid yourself.
The reason the nat gas business flourished in Colorado for a time was the billions of dollars GIVEN to them (read :tax breaks, lax rules, waivers, exemptions,…) by the state, the feds, and the counties. They cannot sustain a gas market at these prices, with these local costs, without government largess. That has been waning as investors, and the government bailouts that accompany them, have dried up. Investors are flocking elsewhere.
http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/gas-wells-in-garco-fewer-for-third-year
Yes…plus there was an underhanded effort by an Oil and Gas company to sneek in and do what they wanted before any regulations came to pass…These gas leases are not off the table yet, and there is a rumor of BLM letting the leases out for sale…to same corrupt company…fortunately…this company might have decided to save their money to fight another day, when prices again rise…
…sorry about the paywall…
By Dennis Webb
Monday, November 18, 2013
Natural gas drilling in Garfield County is on track to for its third straight year of decline, and fourth drop in the past five years.
Drilling starts on new wells in the county — still Colorado ’s second-most active for oil and gas development — are on track to be at their lowest level in about a decade. The same goes for permits to drill wells, which as in the case of new well starts could fall this year below levels in 2004.
The slowdown reflects the continuing low price of natural gas and the focus by many companies on more oil-rich prospects in other areas, including northeast Colorado and out-of-state locations such as North Dakota .
As of Thursday, new well starts in Garfield County totaled 370 so far this year, according to the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. For last year as a whole, the county had 497 well starts. The number has been dropping since 910 were drilled in 2010.
Well starts in the county peaked in 2008 at 1,688. They had steadily risen over prior years, totaling 417 in 2003 and 585 in 2004.
Statewide, well starts to date total 1,675, with 1,096 occurring in Weld County alone. Garfield County had led the state in drilling activity from 2005-08 before Weld County retook the lead.
The two still account for most drilling in the state. Lincoln is the third-busiest county so far this year, with 39 well starts, and Rio Blanco is fourth, at 31. But Rio Blanco had 52 well starts for all of last year and 203 in the county’s peak year of 2008.
Mesa County has six well starts so far for the year, up from four last year and a peak in 2008 of 222. Moffat has 22 starts this year and had 26 for 2012.
As of Nov. 7, the oil and gas commission issued 691 drilling permits for Garfield County , 21 percent of the state total of 3,345. It approved 2,048 in Weld County , or 61 percent of the total.
In Garfield County 1,046 permits were approved for all of last year, and the county peaked at 2,888 permits in 2008. Its permit level this year could fall below the 796 approved in 2004, the last time the number was that low.
Rio Blanco and Mesa are respectively third (149) and fourth (102) in permits so far this year. For all of last year, 117 were approved for Rio Blanco County and 150 for Mesa County .
According to the organization Community Counts, WPX Energy is operating seven drilling rigs in the area, and Encana, five. Black Diamond and Ursa Operating Co. are running a rig apiece.
Most of the rigs are operating in Garfield County .
Encana recently announced plans to lay off 20 percent of employees companywide and focus primarily on oil development.
However, it so far hasn’t indicated any planned cutbacks in local staffing and activities, which are buoyed in part by a joint operating agreement with steel manufacturer Nucor.
http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/gas-wells-in-garco-fewer-for-third-year
Deep down we all remember this is the result of Ritter's O&G regs. And Obama's socialism.
Third World Kids or TWKs.
Obama is a Third World Kid, as am I. Here is a description from Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_culture_kid
" TCKs are often multilingual and highly accepting of other cultures. Although moving between countries may become an easy thing for some TCKs, after a childhood spent in other cultures, adjusting to their passport country often takes years."
The US is Obama's passport country. I think this explains his difficulty in communicating with people from a wide range of subcultures in the US. More importantly, I think it explains why people, mainly from the South and Mid-West, sense there is something "different" about Obama. It is easy then for radicals to build on that and claim that "he is not one of us, he must be Kenyan, or Muslim, or communist or something else."
I think this is a major problem because Obama must be able to relate to most people in the US. I think as he becomes embattled, he shrinks back and becomes more isolated. I also think he must feel betrayed by some of his cabinet appointees and staff, but doesn't have a "bench."
Really, Dwyer????
Wow?!? . . . talk about over genrealization — that Wiki quote/article contains the same kind of wholey useful life information and insight about an individual's attitudes that one could glean from their daily horoscope . . . (or even any number Boyles-show commercials).
This is so very close in perspective, that I would have to consider it a somewhat more polite and — obstensibly, but not actually — a more-educated-appearing version of the same old birther/dang-furriner'/can't-trust-that-dark-person/God-Bless-America crap that I've been hearing for too damn long . . . my entire life.
Think for a momet about all the persons who fit into categories that are purportedly TCKs according to this article. Would you feel comfortable with someone making those same claims trying to explain, say for instance, John McCain???
Travel, and even residience, outside our little white-bread US bubble is both educational and broadening — at any age. And, that is an extremely good thing!!! I for one pray that I never again see another cloistered, jingoistic, untraveled doofus President (ala GWB) in my entire life — You????
The reason that one person can't or doesn't relate to any other person, or any other group of persons, has far more to do with sheer wilfull ignorance and attitude, than it does with the names of the soil on which they've ever trod.
For shame . . .
@Dog..
WYF? The article is loaded with citations from research done dating back to
reputable anthropologists in the 50s. I don't know why you are so upset. But then as a TCK, I have trouble understanding responses sometimes from my
passport country compatriots:)) Living in a foreign country as a kid for five to seven years is not the same thing as "traveling." Yes, John McCain is in that category. Most military kids are….navy and army brats.
This is what you don't understand. Five to seven years, if not more, spent away from this country means that while you are absorbing another culture, even if it is only a military base, you are not learning about the US culture.
As you grow up, you miss learning how to relate, developmentally, in one's own culture. I first read about this study two or three years ago, it explained a whole lot to me about my own responses. One thing that happens is that for me, at least, I spent a lot of time, even as I got older, trying to integrate my different experiences so I could "fit in." By the time I was 24, I had spent six years living in foreign countries. It does make a difference.
Being a TCK is NOT something to be ashamed off, for god's sake. Although I need to tell you, as an army brat going to a civilivan school off post, we sometimes were treated like "trailor trash." Your comments reminded me, immediately, of those days.
I do think that Obama is just not familiar with large sections of this country. I also think that people in the south and mid-west may have trouble relating to him. It is an observation, DGO, not an indictment, for god's sake.
I guess, what with being a TCK yourself you're probably not well equipped to fully appreciate the concerns of this OKC American . . . I understand completely. I hear there's lots of scientific research that documents your particular inability to grasp my concerns . . . it's not your fault, poor child.
(See how that nonsense works? Stick with the Boyles or, more preferably, the daily horoscopes . . .)
I've lived here my whole life (minus one semester abroad) and there are great swaths of this country I will never be able to relate to. Fuck Alabama!
OKC? Oklahoma City?
You are, of course, proving my point. One of the things I've realized is that a TCK grows up in different environments and encounters all kind of things that he/she may not immediately understand. The TCK respons is not to ridicule that which you don't understand, but to try and figure out what is going on. Your response, of course, is to ridicule and dismiss. It used to be very prevalent on this site…lately things had gotten a bit more sane.
Now, this helps me to understand Obama. I remember saying…in regard to the "beer summit" that Obama had a "tin ear." He didn't realize that wasn't going to go over in MA. That wasn't it, the President just did not understand police reaction or the whole involved dynamic between town and gown in Cambridge and black and white in MA, even tho he was a Harvard law grad. I also still think that making OFA a non-partisan organization was dumb…but it may well be that Obama is responding to the mores or values that he learned growing up where partisan conflict is to be avoided,
So Dog, you don't have to understand. I found this interesting. It is germaine to my life and I think the President's. But not yours.
Carry on.
OKC = OCK from a dyslexic/typographically challenged hand
My final word of advice (today) . . . when my sarcasm becomes proof of any one of your points, you may want to considering checking that point.
(. . . Now, what is the name/acronymn for that condition when someone feels that disagreement equals ridicule??? . . . )
um…just guessing here…paranoid?
Correction: It is not Third World Kid – It is Third Culture Kid…TCK. Military brats are in this category – a history I claim.
If you're having Freudian slips and calling our President "Third World," then you are listening to entirely too much right-wing hate radio. I suggest you get a different hobby.
There is no end to the advice I receive on this blog. I expect to be billed….
I am writing a short recollection of the Kennedy era for grandchildren and I use the term "Third World," alot. My mistake.
I do listen to right-wing hate radio because there is not a whole lot else on am…..and I can not stand the british overnight stuff on NPR. However, I do not recall that they refer to the President as Third World…quite the contrary….I don't even think they know the term, let alone the geographic area. They say marxist, muslim, keyan tho….I don't.
Local dweeb makes it onto the pages of one of the very few real newspapers left in America . . .
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/19/opinion/nocera-frackings-achilles-heel.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
It's not Rosen, or even the Boyles show, but what the hey . . . ????
I said this on Nov. 9th…
http://coloradopols.com/diary/51505/hickenloopers-chance-to-recover-some-shine#sthash.BPnSKHec.dpuf
Mr. Nocera and I agree that it will be air quality, not water issues, that will hobble fracking, if anything does. Fugitive emissions have always been the most intrusive part of life in the gas patch. The new AQCC rules are critically important and Gov. Frackenlooper needs to take this opportunity to do do the right thing. But…I'm betting he won't.
Even agriculture better start paying attention.
Some more craziness in Weld County. 51st State supporters are trying to take over the County Council.
http://widestreets.net/2013/11/more-secession-hare-and-abernathy-troll-the-county-council/
This is fun to watch.
More fun with the 14% black white supremacist:
Good read by the smartest man I have ever met.
http://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/161901
It sounds like Epstein would like to negate much of constitutional history since before the Civil War. He may have trouble understanding the world as it is. If you think he is the smartest man you have met, you need to get out more.
This does explain why you think that the republicans are not at all responsible for any bad stuff that happens because they won't do what they are legally required to do, help run the government. Perhaps you prefer a state of anarchy.
Here is another opinion regarding Mr. Epstein. It also speaks to not living in the real world. You may not agree with it, but some valid points are made. I did laugh out loud at the comment about a certain media personality who is no longer on a certain popular right wing entertainment cable channel. Quite unexpected.
Libertarianism, in my very humble opinion, is another utopian fantasy. Although, it may not be coherent enough for that.
http://lawreview.uchicago.edu/sites/lawreview.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/80_1/16%20Tushnet%20BKR.pdf
It's polirical analysis. And relatively simplistic at that.
Where is the econmic analysis? Coase and Calabresi, intellectual giants, prove lawyers who are intellectually honest can apply economics to the law and can even do the math if they have to.
Even Mankiw gets a lot of stuff flat backwards (wrong) but at least he does not claim expertise in areas where he is a simpleton becuase he can string together a sentence about it.
I have no inherent grudge against the righties at Hoover or Cato nor elsewhere. They are just about as prone as the lefties elsewhere to beam away from what they know and try to apply their real knowledge to areas and by methods they merely lack the awareness and ability to accomplish. No one seriously expects a trout to climb a tree. Doesn't mean it is not an outstanding trout.
Really good article – http://priceonomics.com/what-its-like-to-fail/
Liked it!
Great story…inspirational…
thanks, David.