CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 28, 2013 12:07 PM UTC
18 Comments
Correction: Tracy Kraft-Tharp has not served two full terms. She was first elected in 2012 when she defeated incumbent Republican Robert Ramirez in the general election. Instead, she has served 1/2 term.
We thought we had corrected that right after publishing, but it's corrected now. Thanks.
This analysis is logical. There are a couple of other combinations that might work here too (TKT gets SD-19, Zenzinger gets HD-29) but overall this seems about right. Personally I'd love to see Sara Gagliardi kick Libby Szabo's ass in 2014 too, then it's a hat trick.
I understand and basically agree with the critiques of both Kraft-Tharp and Gagliardi being too highly associated with the Democrats to be considered locks in the '15 General. That said, I'm curious why you don't consider Zenzinger's association with Hudak (you know, the lady that looked like she was about to be recalled and then resigned) to be a liability? In my view, it will be just as easy to label her as just another D with the exact same politics. If I'm searching for an archetype I want someone with a stronger business or public health background who can deflect some of these social issues and capture more R's in '15.
As we mentioned, we don't think an association with Hudak is necessarily a negative. Yes, she was the target of a recall, but Hudak was also elected to public office several times without a loss. Most of the people who participated in the Hudak recall attempt are unlikely to support a Democrat anyway.
Decent analysis, but not really complete (and, as pointed out, you're incorrect re: TKTH's length of service — she may just be so effective it feels like she's been around longer).
On TKTH, you neglected to note that Zenzinger is in HD29 and a perfectly cromulent choice for Kraft-Tharp's seat if Tracy gets the vacancy committee nod to move on up to Senate.
With Gagliardi, you didn't point out the easiest counter-argument to that narrative: Gagliardi was elected in a Republican-leaning district that very, very rarely elects Democrats, and was swept out in a Republican wave year that was more about Obama than about Gagliardi. Regrettably, her replacement is only really known for bull semen and nutty-sounding speeches at the RNC. Gagliardi is a hard-working campaigner who will knock doors until her feet fall off, and she plays well as a moderate. (That being said, heavy union support is a liability in TV/direct mail ads, for all the good it does in terms of fundraising.) Also, the possibility of a revenge run in HD27 is another option for her if she doesn't get this… I don't know if she's willing, or if she'd be likely to retry in a primary for the Senate seat in 2016, though. The biggest advantage with Gagliardi is that you get a very, very strong and effective Democrat back in office who isn't in any elected office currently. Only choice that adds a Democrat rather than subtracting one.
Zenzinger wasn't actually Hudak's only campaign manager, but she certainly did enough to know the district and claim a big share of the credit for a difficult, narrow win. She does enjoy bipartisan support on the City Council, and one of Gagliardi's former Republican opponents endorsed her. She's served as Mayor Pro Tem, which is a handy boost from just a city council title, and she gained some kudos for voting against approving a Wal-Mart in Arvada Plaza (the only councilor to do so). However, Republican interests have recently caused some drama on the Lakewood City Council by uncovering possible evidence of secret meetings, destroyed documents, and other miscellaneous corruption, and Grassroots Radio (for all that I hate to suggest they have any influence, the recall types DEFINITELY listen to them) is calling for Arvada to be investigated next. I don't think voters really give a crap about city council issues enough for it to become a major issue, but it could rile up the same vocal minority that drove the recall campaign. I am 100% certain Zenzinger would not herself be found to be involved in any Arvada City Council corruption, but I would not be one bit surprised to find the Mayor caught holding secret meetings that excluded Zenziner, or something like that. (In fact, I've seen documents that catch the Mayor in some pretty damning lies about the Wal-Mart developer relationship already.) If the Arvada council overall gains a reputation for corruption, that could leak into any campaign by an Arvada councilor, even if she is (and she is!) the only member NOT involved in the rule-breaking. However, again, anything short of bodies in the basement will go unnoticed by the vast, vast majority of voters, so it's a minor wrinkle, not a liability.
Another thing to consider: There's a decent element of the party that wants to see a woman take over whenever (God grant him long life and great health!) Perlmutter finally retires… any of these three, managed carefully, could have enough longevity in office to be there if Perlmutter retires after a few more terms. I personally want to see Perlmutter serve until he's 112 year old and whacking Republicans with his cane, and the very thought of him retiring makes me bite my nails furiously, but it's something we have to face as a possibility. Of the three, Kraft-Tharp is possibly the best bet if she stays put in the House, serves all her allotted terms there, and THEN moves up to Senate — especially if she gets a leadership position in the Senate and is, say, Assistant Majority Leader when Perlmutter retires, she'd be in a great position to jump in. We all know the male names bandied around as Perlmutter's eventual replacement, but I'm one of the not-insignificant number of CD7 voters who like the idea of Degette getting some female company in Colorado's delegation.
All things considered, there are a lot of pluses and a handful of minuses for all three, but quite frankly I think any of the trio can defend the seat next year. The Republican bench is in sorry shape, and there will probably be a primary with a pretty good chance of an RMGO-backed gun nut ideological purist right-winger outraising any reasonable Republican and winning the nomination. Dudley Brown is kind of like a vampire: Once you invite him in, you can't get rid of him, and SD19 has invited him in via the recall, for which RMGO is already openly taking credit.
I know which way I'm leaning, but all three are personal friends and I ain't sayin' nothing against any one of them. I'll make a mark on my ballot when the time comes, and I will celebrate with whomever wins. We're in great shape regardless.
(You also missed the rumor that two Westminster city council members are interested, but I don't think they'll get in, so it's probably not worth the digital "ink.")
A lot can happen before the vacancy committee, and plenty of other people will probably express some level of interest. But barring something surprising, we'd guess the appointment will go to one of these three women.
You make an interesting point about Perlmutter, although if that seat does open up anytime soon, there will be no shortage of interested and capable Democrats who will kick the tires (including several women). Nobody is going to be able to lay claim to that nomination.
I would not expect Perlutter to give it up without another 5-6 terms at any rate
wouldn't hazard a guess at how many more times he'll do a cartwheel at a victory celebration
I think and hope you're right. (All the more reason for TKTH to stay put.) I hope it's more like 10-20 terms!
I would also like to add that Senator Hudak had extensive expertise in Education Policy and chaired the Senate Ed Committee. I believe Councilwoman Zenzinger is the only one qualified to fill that void as far as education policy is concerned. We have major decisions to make as far as the future of Colorado schools and we need a Senator who can make the tough calls.
Just a notion … just to muse.
Zenzinger just got reelected to the Arvada council … like not even 30 days ago.
Now, we all understand that politics is about unfettered ambition and personal advancement, however, to abandon an office to which one was re-elected just a few days ago might seem overly 'eager' and aggrandizing for the average citizen.
You can be sure that the Republicans would make that an issue in 2014, especially if the mood of the electorate is still cynical and skeptical towards politicians and government.
The endorsement game will be interesting to watch. So far I've seen TKTH come out for Gagliardi and Sen. Hodge endorse Zenzinger. Anyone seen any other notable endorsements?
Rachel was RE-Elected with no opposition. She has served Arvada very well the last 4 years. She made no secret that she wanted to run for the Senate seat, she was just planning to wait till Evie finished her full term. The only question that matters here is who will win the general. Sara is a great person, but she was trounced four years ago, despite working her ass off. We can't risk that again. Rachel basically won this race a year ago as Evie's campaign manager, noone knows this fight better. And as mentioned above, we need someone to carry on Evie's legacy. Rachel is a teacher who works in education policy. She understands this complicated world. We want a teacher to replace Evie. Go Rachel.
I am not that familiar with Hudak's district. I believe it is a swing district correct? Does that district have more republicans or democrats?
Not familiar either but do know, as has been pointed out often enough, that Hudak won by a very small margin.
I almost hope the GOP retakes the legislature and governorship so they can undo the gun regulations, which will have zero effect on gun violence and won't prevent another Sandy Hook/Columbine/Aurora theater.
But only almost, because the GOP is nothing short of insane and completely untrustworthy when it comes to governing. Sadly, the Democratic party is well on its way there as well.
If you really think the regulations will have zero effect on crime, unless you think they'll do real and serious harm (hard to see that since they don't do a thing to take away anyone's right to self defense with guns) and you really think the GOP is insane, which would do real and serious harm to everything they touch, I'd recommend sticking with Dems. Just sayin'.