Thursday Open Thread

"A wise man fights to win, but he is twice a fool who has no plan for possible defeat."

–Louis L'Amour 

51 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. dwyer says:

    Here is the latest from Sabato’s Crystal Ball on 2014
    Senate races: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/

    • I'd move McConnell/Lundergan-Grimes from 'Likely R' to 'Lean R' given the pretty reliable trend of toss-up polls.

      And I'd move both Landrieu and Kagan to 'Lean D', not so much because I like them or thought that they'd be strong contenders this year, but rather because they've been unexpectedly polling on top in polls I've seen.

  2. Andrew Carnegie says:

    The numbers that I find of interest:

    In 2013 Udall voted with the President's wishes 99% of the time.  Harry Reid only voted with him 90% of the time.

    Gallup Presidential Job approval of Obama 40% today.

    Kind of hard to seperate yourself from the President when you mail it in for him 99 out of 100 times.  Nonetheless:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wiqsCFmUiXc

  3. Andrew Carnegie says:

    So what does former Interior Secretary Ken Salazar have to say about fracking?

    "Salazar also praised hydraulic fracking in his remarks, pointing out that there has not been “a single case where hydraulic fracking has created an environmental problem for anyone.”"

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/former-interior-secretary-ken-salazar-build-keystone-xl/article/2543509

     

  4. BlueCat says:

    The numbers I will find interesting are the votes cast in November which will reelect  both Hick and Udall. Salazar isn't running for anything, last time I checked. Not that any Tea Party wackos would vote for him if he did.

  5. BlueCat says:

    Backing up what I was saying yesterday:

    President Obama's health care reform law isn't going to kill 2.5 million jobs, Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf told the House Budget Committee on Wednesday.

    One day after multiple media outlets misinterpreted a CBO report on Obamacare, Elmendorf clarified the CBO's position during the hearing. The federal agency, Elmendorf said, had found Obamacare “spurs employment and would reduce unemployment over the next few years."

    “When you boost demand for labor in this kind of economy, you actually reduce the unemployment rate, because those people who are looking for work can find more work," Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) asked Elmendorf.

    “Yes, that’s right,” Elmendorf responded

     http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/05/cbo-director-obamacare_n_4732746.html

  6. ZappateroZappatero says:

    US Senate Dems still following fear rather than leading.

    Minimum wage is a winning issue that majorities support across the country, even in Arkansas and against the wishes of their Walmart Oligarchs.

  7. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Udall is going to have Obama campaign with him in Colorado.  It will be really well received:

    68. If President Obama campaigns for Mark Udall in his Senate race, would that make you more likely to vote for Udall, less likely to vote for Udall, or wouldn't it make a difference?

                                                                   AGE IN YRS..............
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
     
    More likely          10%     -     25%     5%     9%    10%    15%     8%     9%     8%
    Less likely          40     74      4     45     45     36     40     36     42     45
    No difference        49     26     70     48     45     53     43     55     47     44
    DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      1      1      1      1      2
     
     Quinnipiac poll released today
    • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

      AC, you really ought to provide links when you cite a source. Since you didn't, I will.

      Here is the link to the Quinnipiac poll on Mark Udall, Obama, Clinton, etc. and the url: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2004

      Contrary to what AC said, I don't see 18-29 year olds deserting Udall – quite the opposite:

        With large gender gaps, Colorado voters approve 45 – 41 percent of the job Sen. Mark Udall is doing, but are divided 42 – 42 percent on whether he deserves reelection this year. Women approve 51 – 32 percent and say 48 – 31 percent he deserves reelection. Men disapprove 49 – 40 percent and say 52 – 36 percent he does not deserve reelection.
        Looking at the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Colorado, Sen. Udall gets 45 percent to 42 percent for Republican District Attorney Ken Buck. In other possible matchups:

      • Udall gets 43 percent to 41 percent for State Sen. Randy Baumgardner;
      • Udall edges State Sen. Owen Hill 44 – 39 percent;
      • Udall has 43 percent to State Rep. Amy Stephens with 41 percent;
      • Udall tops businessman Jaime McMillan 45 – 38 percent. <

      So what I get out of that is that Republicans of whatever age and gender will vote for whomever the Republican party puts up against Udall. But Udall's still winning by 2-4 points, no matter who that is. So it will be close, and we shouldn't be complacent, but it is not a dire poll for Udall, either.

      As far as the 18-29 demographic goes,  it varies by candidate put up against Udall, but overall, young people like him, 
      although if I were his campaign manager, I would be doing some serious outreach to 
      young people, since 37% say they "haven't heard enough about him".
      
       
      <!--
      

      12. Is your opinion of Mark Udall favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

       

                                                                     AGE IN YRS..............
                           Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
       
      Favorable            42%    14%    80%    37%    36%    49%    37%    42%    45%    44%
      Unfavorable          35     59      4     40     46     24     23     29     42     45
      Hvn't hrd enough     21     26     16     21     16     26     37     28     12     10
      REFUSED               1      2      1      2      2      1      3      1      1      1
       
      

       

      • Andrew Carnegie says:

        Yo Mama, Here are the numbers for Udall vs. Buck.  Check out the 18-20 numbers:

                                                                       AGE IN YRS..............
                             Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    18-29  30-49  50-64  65+
         
        Udall                45%    12%    90%    36%    36%    54%    38%    48%    46%    45%
        Buck                 42     80      2     44     50     33     42     35     45     47
        SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      2      1      1      1
        WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      2      2      1      3      2      1      1
        DK/NA                11      6      7     15     10     12     16     13      8      6
         
        • ajb says:

          And how do you think the undecideds will break? 

          • Andrew Carnegie says:

            2-1 or 3-1 against the incumbent.

            • BlueCat says:

              Very unlikely. At this point most of the undecideds aren't undecided as in I'm not sure which one to vote for. They are low info undecided as in I don't pay attention to this stuff and don't know who any of these people are.  

              Much closer to the election when ads have at least made people aware of more names and faces, undecideds will be more likely to represent those who aren't sure they want to vote for the incumbent. Early polling is name rec polling, the kind that had all the TV talking heads proclaiming that the 2008 election was definitely going to be HRC v Giuliani when all those polls really meant was everybody had heard of them.

            • dustpuppydustpuppy says:

              Never going to happen. Incumbents almost *always* get the undecideds – better than crap.

              I think you need to lay down the weed and smoke some meth instead. More appropriate for you.

              • Andrew Carnegie says:

                Sick puppy.  Perhaps some of the elders on the board will share some wisdom with you.  Incumbents almost always get the undecideds?  The exact opposite is true.  

                You may reject reality because it comes from me but the wise elders who share your leftists views will not share this one.

        • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

          I saw that. How do you explain the 10% favorability rating of Udall by that age group?

          I don't doubt that there is a strong young conservative presence in Colorado politics. When I worked in construction, I worked with guys like these.

          They do listen to Boyles and Fox and get their news from pretty narrow sources, tend to be cynical and feel that life is treating them unfairly.

          With union membership on the decline, most don't belong to a union, which might present a more liberal point of view on issues.

  8. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Udall is up overall on Buck 45% to 42%

    Udall is losing Independnnts.

    Udall approval by Independents 40%

    Obama approval 37%

    Udall deserves to be reelected 42%, Independents 37%

    • ZappateroZappatero says:

      Udall consistently yearns for a dying bipartisanship, wouldn't shut up about a Grand Bargain to Cut Social Security, and is mortally afraid of standing up for core Democratic principles, which I'm sure follows the brilliant advice he gets from DSCC Chair Michael Bennet who wouldn't know a "principle" if it punched him in the nose.

      • BlueCat says:

        Oh Zap, if it were up to you we'd have nothing but Rs because no Dem who could get elected outside of a safe district is pure enough for you. This is Colorado and any Dem is still better than any R which is all we'll get by nominating Dems pure enough for you. 

        I do see the value in pressure from the left, though. The "center" has been dragged so far right it definitely needs some hauling back and that's what the Zaps are for, so…. you don't go changin' either. Pressure from the less cautious/more strident has already accomplished some supposedly impossible things, like marriage equality on the verge of going national, but we still have to win enough elections to block R majorities and entry to the WH for a while longer before demographics crush the GOTP  as we know it for good. But that's what the grownups are for. For now. wink

        • Andrew Carnegie says:

          If you want some demographics check out the poll.

          Dems have lost the young vote, thanks to Obamacare.

          Buck beats Udall in 18-29 Demographic 42-38.

          • BlueCat says:

            First I'm talking about big picture demographics, not the demographics of one poll for one Senate race.Also, there is no breakdown for Hispanic voters, the demo that will experience the most significant increase in numbers nationwide going forward, or for African Americans. But most important, Udall isn't behind head to head in any potential race, a point you would no doubt be emphasizing if the same were true for any R. Finally head to heads are always distorted when measuring one single candidate against each candidate in a crowded field. Finally, see you in November at Udall's victory party?

            You needn't bother to reply. It will only be to repeat your indie voters talking point and ignore the head to head results again. 

          • Diogenesdemar says:

            Ya' know — there was another guy here once who had a HUGE Buck crush . . . actually, the only person I've ever known who loved him a little KenB about as much as you seem to, AC . . . 

            . . . Hey folks, could it possibly be that our little prodigal, BJWilson, has finally returned from his wanderings????!!!?????

          • DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

            I've got three daughters and I can tell you that their vote, and those of their friends, will be 100% democratic as long as the GOP is anti Women's health and anti gay marriage.

  9. mamajama55mamajama55 says:

    Put this on your radar, although it may go nowhere:

    Colorado Republicans are calling for a moratorium on implementation of election law HB1303 (voter access and modernized elections act), while a bipartisan commision investigates it. On board:

    Senator Grantham, Scott Gessler (currently Sec State, running for Governor), Victor Head (running for Pueblo County Clerk), Wayne Williams (running for Sec State)., Marilyn Marks, running for Wicked Witch of the Western Elections.

    Hmmmm. This wouldn't have anything to do with increasing Republican chances of getting elected in Colorado, would it?

    Mike Littwin had an excellent column on it in the Independent. So far, the proposed bipartisan commission is a no go, and there is no actual bill out there calling for a moratorium. It's just the newest voter suppression tactic in Colorado.

     

  10. Andrew Carnegie says:

    Dem money sitting out 2014, aka Clinton revenge is best served cold.

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/key-democratic-group-will-sit-out-midterms

    • Can't read well. I suppose with GOP donations actually down, you've got to find something.

      The PAC you point to is and has been a presidential race PAC. I've actually seen some interesting things leaking out of the 2014 Dem strategy that give me some hope for the team. They might cause you to misread more headlines, though.

    • dustpuppydustpuppy says:

      And two of your usual billionaires are dead in the past year.

      Rove's PAC netted only 6 million last year.

      What else is new.

    • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

      Again, AC, your concern is touching, but progressive, liberal, and Democratic funds, PACS, think tanks, research and polling outfits, direct funding pass-throughs, and non-profit orgs of all 5## numbers are multiplying and effectively networking all over the country.

      I'm not going to give you names, though…you can do your own research wink

      We have learned a few things since 2004.

  11. DaftPunkDaftPunk says:

    Preying on the unfaithful in Sabine Parish?

    Did you hear about the Buddhist teacher at a north Louisiana public school who berated one of her sixth-graders for his faith in Jesus Christ? Can you believe she had the audacity to tell him Christianity is "stupid"? Did you know her school has a picture of the Buddha on its wall?

    And what about the school superintendent's response when the child's parents complained? She simply advised the parents to transfer their child to a school with more Christians.

    Perhaps you're shaking your head, muttering in angry disbelief about shocking misconduct by a public employee who tried coercing a student to abandon his faith. You should be angry, but would you be any less disturbed if the religions in this story were reversed?

    Actually, the case in question concerns a middle school teacher in rural Sabine Parish (south of Shreveport) accused of sharing her Christian beliefs in class and who last fall allegedly harassed a student of Thai descent over his Buddhist faith. The case is now the subject of a federal lawsuit brought by the student's parents against the teacher, the Sabine Parish School Board, its superintendent and the principal ofNegreet High School, a kindergarten-through-12th-grade institution…

    …Thirty-five miles south of Negreet High School is Leesville High School, from which I graduated in 1977. As senior class president, I was often asked to lead students in Christian prayer over the intercom before classes. I now know that this violated the Constitution. I'm sure I'd never heard of the establishment clause, but it wouldn't have mattered. Just like the good folks at Negreet High School, I was full of fervor for Jesus and had a passion for saving souls.

    I doubt my supplications did much good, beyond signaling that Leesville High had established Christianity as its official religion. That's what Negreet High has apparently done, too. Beyond the constitutional violations that may be involved here, this type of proselytizing is one of the most ineffective and counterproductive approaches imaginable.

    Had these school officials set out to alienate a young person from Christianity for life they could not have devised a more elegant and effective strategy

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