June 23, 2014 12:23 PM UTC

Can "Honey Badger" Sneak In a Win?

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• by: Colorado Pols

The two most likely scenarios in tomorrow's Republican gubernatorial primary elections, based on all polling of the race, is either a win by former Congressman Bob Beauprez or his colleague Tom Tancredo. But there is a third possible outcome that we do want to note for the record, as the Denver Post's Joey Bunch reported last week:

[Scott Gessler] embraces the nickname "Honey Badger" — even calling his campaign Team Honey Badger — which came from the Internet meme about "the most fearless animal in the animal kingdom."

"He has less baggage than Tancredo, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have any," University of Denver political scientist Peter Hanson said of Gessler's primary opponent, who is known for controversy.

To his credit, Gessler has a well-organized, disciplined campaign, Hanson said. [Pols emphasis]

One thing we know from elections past is that polling is notoriously problematic in a low-turnout primary election, because a disciplined get-out-the-vote field campaign can turn polling results on their head on Election Night. And that possibility remains for tomorrow night: even though Beauprez and Tancredo are hogging the spotlight for earned media in this race, Gessler's by all accounts quality campaign, staffed by smart up-and-coming intelligentsia Republicans, just might be getting the ballots in from their well-targeted voters.

This possibilty prevents us from completely writing off any of the three viable contenders in this nominally four-man, widely regarded as a two-man race. Mike Kopp has no ability to pull off a steal himself, having never raised the minimum needed to undertake a field campaign. We don't even think his Rocky Mountain Gun Owners endorsement can help him at this point, with Kopp basically in vanity mode after winning the state assembly.

If there's an upset brewing in this race, Gessler will be it.