Whiplash: New Q-Poll, Beauprez 44%, Hickenlooper 43%

hickskydive

After yesterday's poll from NBC/Marist reassured Colorado Democrats with apparent growing leads in the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, a new poll out from Quinnipiac University today restores a healthy sense of fear:

Despite stronger voter optimism about Colorado's economy than found in many states, the race for governor is tied, with 43 percent for Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper and 44 percent for former U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. 

Voters give Gov. Hickenlooper a split job approval rating, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving, compared to a 52 – 39 percent approval rating in an April 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. 

Hickenlooper does not deserve reelection, voters say 48 – 42 percent, down from a positive 47 – 43 percent support in April. 

The gender gap is wide today as men back Beauprez 48 – 37 percent, while women back Hickenlooper 48- 40 percent. Hickenlooper leads 90 – 4 percent among Democrats, while Beauprez takes Republicans 86 – 7 percent. Independent voters are divided with 41 percent for Beauprez and 40 percent for Hickenlooper. 

In another split, 43 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of the governor, with 42 percent unfavorable, down from 51 – 37 percent favorable in April. Beauprez gets a 31 – 25 percent favorability rating, with 43 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion, compared to 52 percent who didn't know enough about him in April.

Clearly a significant move from Quinnipiac's last poll of the Colorado gubernatorial race, when Gov. John Hickenlooper was beating Bob Beauprez by a comfortable nine-point margin. But what's the reason? Speculation we've heard ranges from consolidation of support for Beauprez among conservatives after the primary to fresh negatives for Hickenlooper from his gaffe-laden comments to county sheriffs about the gun safety bills passed last year.

Looking ahead in this race, though, we see major problems for Beauprez in the very large percentage of voters who don't know enough about him to form an opinion. That vacuum is going to get filled, and there's a vast body of highly damaging material on Beauprez to fill it with–as we've been reporting in this space for months. It's arguable that the only reason Beauprez appears competitive today is that Beauprez's record has not been reported accurately by the press so far–witness the ridiculous story right after the primary in the Denver Post about what a "mainstream moderate" Beauprez is. Once the public learns about Beauprez's civil war rhetoric, his "birther" speculation about President Barack Obama, the "hoax" of climate change, his Tom Tancredo-style immigration views, and much more–it remains our view that Beauprez has nowhere to go in this race but down.

To ensure that outcome, it's time for Democrats to take the gloves off. 

25 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. OrangeFreeOrangeFree says:

    54 – 37 percent say Hick is honest and trust worthy (40 – 26 for BWB). 51 – 41 percent say Hick cares about their needs and problems (41 – 29 percent for BWB), 56 – 38 percent say Hick has strong leadership qualities (43 – 25 percent for BWB), 20 percent say the economy/jobs are the big issue, 64 percent of voters say the state's economy is "excellent" or "good," and 58 percent say the economy has gotten better. 

    A full 43 percent don't know enough about BWB.

    Yet Hick is down 43-44 to BWB and he flipped his "doesn't deserve re-election" percentages since last Q poll. 

    I don't think I've seen a poll like that before. It's troublesome to say the least. 

  2. Andrew Carnegie says:

    The real importance of this poll is you can compare it to an earlier poll by the same entity both using a registered voter model.

    In April Q had Hick +9

    In July Q has Hick -1

    That is what should be troubling for Dems.

    None of the other public polls have multiple polls for making an apples to apples comparison.

  3. nota33 says:

    If you look at all of the polls that have been released so far, Hickenlooper is either winning or tied with Bob Beauprez. My prediction, Beauprez goes down by 10 points or more.

  4. nota33 says:

    The race is not as close as it appears to be. Bob Beauprez back in 2006 was ahead of Ritter in a few polls and lost by 17 points. Hickenlooper and Udall are both doing very good with latino and women voters and even independents.

  5. Diogenesdemar says:

    Gessler 2014 (and beyond) !!!

    If not now, when?

  6. HarleyHarley says:

    Quinnipiac must have hired a bunch of people from Gallup—remember the Gallup polling?

  7. Early WormEarly Worm says:

    In theory, this shows that HIckenlooper is (was) vulnerable.  But someone will need to spin pretty hard to explain how the electorate has changed (or changed opinions) from 2006 when Beauprez lost by 17 points. Who exactly voted for Ritter in that election and is going vote for Beauprez this time around.  The overall electorate has gotten bluer in the menatime, not redder. With the right candidate, the republicans might have had a chance. I do not think independents like the consolidated power that the Democrats have.  But BWB is not the answer.

  8. DavieDavie says:

    The Guvs are right — as long as the public via the media only get a soft, gauze-filtered view of Beauprez, then the middle of the road non-politico voters might go with warm and fuzzy "Uncle" Bob, because you know, things are going great and he wouldn't screw things up, right?

    Time to clean the vaseline off the camera lens and show people what BWB is really all about.

  9. Diogenesdemar says:

    Valid, or invalid, I think the further question here is what does Hick do with this polling information.  Does he:

    1) ignore this (invalid) data, and continue on his merry way?

    2) Begin filming skydiving commercials on BWB's horse's back?

    3) Apologize to what's left of his base for being such an unfaithful oil-drilling schmuck?

    4) Apologize to righties for being taken in by those wiley Dems who've commandeered the legislature?

    5) Crack a brew. (He knows he's got this one in the bag.)

  10. dwyer says:

    Apart from the polls, I have a growing concern about what is happening with Hickenlooper.  He seems disconnected,  These are the three issues, IMHO.

    1) The inability to make a decision in the Dunlap case-  It was the governor's responsibiity to act, and he could not.  The indecision was not fair to the families of the victims, everyone who participated in the judical process, nor to Dunlap, who is now in limbo.  Hickenlooper had the option of commuting the sentence to life imprisonment.  He was paralyzed with indecision and evidently put his own emotional comfort ahead of the responsibilities of the state.  If elected to a second term, he may face another such decision in the Holmes case.  If he can not handle the office, he should not run for a second term.

    2) The relationship with the sheriffs and his talk to them.  Nothing he said made any sense.  Again, the governor either supports the gun legislation or he does not.  He either understands the position of the sherrifs or he does not.  

    3) Bloomberg's comment about "no roads in Pubelo and Colorado Springs" goes way beyond a typical Easterners patronizing igornance.  Chris Matthews' comment about Cochise at the Battle of the LIttle Big Horn fits into that category.  Bloomberg was braggin about how he "intervened"  in the gun debate in Colorado.  This  demands an immediate and angry response from Hickenlooper, demanding an apology and correction from Bloomberg.   I have not heard anything.   Local radio hosts have been claiming for more than a year that Bloomberg is "Colorado's Mayor."  Bloomberg stupity and Hickenlooper's silence seems to confirm that.

     

    I think Beauprez would be a disaster for the state.  However, I think he is the next governor, unless Hickenlooper resigns or quits the race.  The alternative:

    I think Joe Garcia would be better than either of them.  And, of course, perhaps Ken Salazar could be persuaded to come to the aid of the party.

     

    • ct says:

      Classic Dwyer.  Hick is doomed unless he resigns now.  Throw in the towel before the game really begins.  

      Other than wingnuts and gunhumpers no one cares about Bloomberg's stupid comment.  

      It might not be a bad thing if Hick (and any poliician as a general matter IMO) felt more vulnerable, but (the single act of)  introing and banjoing with OCMS at Red Rocks last night did more for Hick than Bloomberg dissing Pweeblo and Somalia Springs.  Who do you think Both Ways would introduce?  Pat Boone maybe?  

      • Ralphie says:

        Who knew Hick played the banjo? Does that mean those teeth are fake?

      • dwyer says:

        @ct

        You are right that the Bloomberg comment is a political gift to the "wingnuts and gunhumpers."  Unfortunately, they vote.

        My other two concerns were not political.  I am concerned about what is happening with Hickenlooper.  With Dunlup, he couldn't decide; with the sheriffs, he apparently couldn't remember.  These are important.

         I had said earlier that I think he depended on Helen Thorpe to bounce ideas and comments around and given him advice. She is a journalist, her expertise is words and making them communicate clearly.  I think he needs somone like that, now.  Spouses also are alert if something healthwise is happening with their partner.

        If Hickenlooper has a medical problem, who would pick up on it?

        As for throwing in the towel?  I am the one who is also saying when are the Dems going to fight back.  I think I expressed my concern about the repubs taking over the Senate months ago.  

         

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