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September 29, 2014 06:27 AM UTC

Monday Open Thread

  • 69 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

"Propaganda does not deceive people; it merely helps them to deceive themselves."

–Eric Hoffer

Comments

69 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread

  1. What stupidity will Doug Lamborn commit today?

    "No one from leadership has contacted the congressman because there is nothing to contact him about," said Jarred Rego, Lamborn's campaign spokesman. He reiterated that Lamborn was referring to old policies, including "draconian defense budget cuts" due to sequestration and changes to "don't ask, don't tell."

    "We've felt no pressure," Rego said.

    Lamborn told the group Tuesday that "a lot of us are talking to the generals behind the scenes saying, 'Hey, if you disagree with the policy that the White House has given you, let's have a resignation. Let's have a public resignation and state your protest and go out in a blaze of glory.'"
     

    1. "He" doesn't "have" Con Man up 4.5 you worthless, dissembling f-ckstick. His aggregation of polls — PRIMARILY FEATURING THE FRAUDULENT +10 QUINNIPIAC OUTLIER — has Con Man up an inaccurate 4.5

      It is FAR closer than 4.5 and you know it, sh-tbag. You're just too big a fraud, liar and con artist like your scummy candidate to be honest about it. You and he will get yours yet. Keep watching, SFB.

        1. Bingo! Thanks for the perfect back-up, kickshot.

          You see, friends, this is a classic example of how the GOTP and its minions operate — always through lies, distortion and fear. Con Man Cory IS NOT ahead by 4.5. But don't ever expect Skippy and his power-mad, corrupt, mentally ill ilk to be truthful about it.

          DO NOT let these self-serving, dissembling vermin stampede you into believing that "all hope is lost." It is NOT. Far from it.

          Reject the GOTP fear-and-smear attempts, keep your powder dry, your eye on the ball, tune out the lies and noise from the evil ones, and VOTE, VOLUNTEER, and DONATE. Do not delay!

          1. That's right — keep spinning till you unscrew your fat, ugly head completely, troll puke.

            You couldn't tell the truth about anything even with a gun to your head, you lying, corrupt slimebag. You're programmed to lie.

          2. It is NOT "Sam Wang's prognostication," you craven sociopath.

            It is the pollster Quinnipiac's incompetence and/or corruption, which has in turn corrupted Sam's and all other poll aggregators' Gardner results — and you damn well know it, sleazebag..

            I defy you — DARE YOU — to try to prove otherwise, coward.

             

            1. AC is the dissembling f—stick who needs to unscrew his fat, ugly head, and is a craven sociopath!  Looks like Moddy wins the popularity contest for our favorite right-wing troll.

              1. I stick pins in an "AC" doll every day, just for good measure. : )

                I view Moddy/Zippy as a hapless, witless, reality-denying tool of the right, but I don't sense the pure evil and malice aforethought in him/her that I do in Skippy. AChickenhawk is a master con artist, dissembler, liar, and skillful manipulator of the slow-witted and ill-informed — truly rotten to the core. That's why he was chosen and is paid to come here and crap on Pols' threads every day.

                So yeah, Moddy's my favorite RWNJ troll too!

              2. No question. Moderatus, though a complete idiot, is a sincere idiot who actually has a human heart. AC has no redeeming characteristics. If I were to step on him, I would want to scrape him off my shoe.

  2. Germany is prospering while its workers' lives continue to improve with the support of work/life friendly policies.

    Last month, German Labor Minister Andrea Nahles commissioned a study to assess the psychological and economic effects of work-related stress. The findings, slated to be released in 2016, are expected to generate legislation that would ban employers from contacting workers after office hours. Such a law, currently being pushed by the powerful multi-service trade union Vereinte Dienstleistungsgewerkschaft, or ver.di, now seems more likely to reach fruition sinceit gained Nahles' support.

    "There is an undeniable relationship between constant availability and the increase of mental illness," Nahles told the Rheinische Post. "We have commissioned the Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to work out whether it is possible to set load thresholds. We need universal and legally binding criteria."

    Dominik Ehrentraut, a spokesman for the Labor Ministry, told HuffPost a law won't be formally proposed until the findings are released in 2016.

    If passed, such a law could serve as a model for preserving workers' privacy and curbing the culture of being constantly on-call for work. 

    Somehow, Americans brag about the 50, 60, 70 hour weeks and forget the major gains we made with bold and progressive leadership of 2 presidents named Roosevelt

    While workers' hours and productivity have steadily increased, the vast majority of the profits generated by those increases have gone to the top .01%.

  3. more of what Sam Wang says:

    Recall that the Senate Meta-Margin is defined by how much all Senate races would have to swing together in order to create a perfect tied probability for Senate control between Republicans and Democrats+Independents. Yesterday, the Meta-Margin moved by 1.4% toward Republicans. By the standards of this year’s campaign, that is a huge movement. The change was mostly caused by movement in just two states, Alaska and Colorado. Those were ways for Democrats+Independents to hold 50 votes, and as of today, those routes are currently looking unfavorable. Therefore now the Meta-Margin is R+0.1%. That is a near-perfect tie if polls are exactly calibrated to Election Day behavior (is it? that’s a question for another day).

    Our time window is currently to take the last 3 polls or the last 2 weeks of data, whichever is more, for each state. This measure takes a little while to move, but when it does, that’s meaningful. Statistically, we are now at the most Republican-leaning end of the range that we have seen in the entire graph.The dip in June looks better for Republicans, but keep in mind that on September 3rd, the Meta-Margin jumped by 0.8% when Chad Taylor (D-KS) dropped out of the race. Subtracting that gives a better feeling for where we’re at, not counting Kansas. In short: as a group, Republican Senate candidates outside Kansas are at an all-time high.

    Will this change stick? There is still plenty of time for movement in most of the races listed in the right sidebar (The Power Of Your Vote). Still, we should take the latest change fairly seriously. Alaska was a hidden bonus for Republicans all along, as I analyzed yesterday. But the change in Colorado polls – I’ve been pondering that all week. Something big happened there: a swing from Udall +3.0±0.7% (mean±SEM, 4 polls) to Gardner +4.5±2.2% (4 polls). As a trigger, I nominate the Udall-Gardner debate, which is the kind of event that can move opinion by showing the two candidates side by side.

    As usual, recall that The Power Of Your Vote is a list of states where individual votes are most valuable. Those states are where get-out-the-vote activism and campaign contributions will have the greatest impact.

    → 17 CommentsTags: 2014 Election · Senate

    1. He also said this about Alaska: In other words, in any given year, approximately 10% of Alaska’s population has just arrived or is about to move away. This is reminiscent of Nevada, which has very similar statistics. Nevada is also the site of a spectacularly wrong polling error. In fall of 2010, surveys unanimously showed Republican Sharron Angle favored to unseat Democratic Senator (and Majority Leader) Harry Reid, by a median of four percentage points. Every data-based prognosticator, including me, expected Angle to win. Yet Reid won the election by 5 points, outperforming polls by 9 points. I regard this as the worst miss of Senate polling in the last three election cycles.

      1. I'd just like to add…. as annoying as Piss ant's crowing is, things are definitely not going in the direction  we supporters would like for Udall. I think we can all agree on that and that it's too close for comfort for Udall supporters. I mean we'd rather have him ahead by at least mid single digits in all the reputable polls, right?

        Silver notes that during the five weeks Udall was consistently ahead he had more ads out. During the weeks Gardner's been ahead, Gardner's had more ads out. We'd better hope that the Udall camp is A) keeping its powder dry for a bit in preparation for an end game blitz and B) has something in mind besides endlessly re-running the choice ads. They're wall paper at this point and they do make it look as though Udall's camp thinks that's all they've got. 

        Yes it's important to get pro-choice women out to vote but I hope the Udall campaign is beginning to look at numbers and polls and realize  that this one issue isn't the only important one in this race and they're reaching a point of diminishing returns. Udall needs strong ads on other issues, jobs, economy, and also to counter the Gardner accusations that he's an Obama puppet, ads that point out where he has opposed the administration by taking stands that resonate with the public. Lately all I'm seeing are the choice oriented ads, while the ad about Udall's support in the aftermath of the floods of 2013 while Gardner was busy supporting a government shut down seem to have disappeared. I thought that was a good Colorado issue ad. Standing up for constituents is an issue that resonates. 

        I'm very concerned about how this campaign is being run. If they think they can win on abortion rights alone and neglect to run ads on anything else from here on out, I think they will be making a huge mistake. I also think Udall should take some debating pointers from Romanoff who knows how to counter the negatives Coffman throws at him by using them as opportunities to pivot to confident, positive, calm, good humored messaging on his own record, stands, and proposals instead of going on defense which is never inspiring of confidence. And as mama points out, there are more debates coming, despite the GOTP meme to the contrary. 

        Piss Ant may not know WTF he's talking about but that doesn't mean Udall isn't in a spot where he needs a hell of an end game to keep his seat. Over the last several weeks more of the same clearly hasn't been getting the job done. It's time to shake things up.

        1. Gardner does in fact for the moment enjoy some limited momentum; unlike Skippy's despicable tribe, no one here attempts to deny reality, or turns on poll aggregators we previously cited, but with whom we now disagree, simply because we don't like the results. (Skippy's sudden reversal to begin sucking up to Sam Wang is particularly laughable and pathetically embarrassing.)

          Your other concerns are quite valid. I too question a number of the decisions being made by both Udall's campaign and supportive PACs, particularly where ad content and ad buys are concerned.

          For example — WHERE THE HELL *ARE* the pro-Udall ads? For almost two weeks now, Con Man, his stooges, and his lie-oozing snake-oil ads have had virtually the entire playing field to themselves! Why the hell did I see TWO Con Man ads during "Madam Secretary" last night, and none for Udall, during a show which is a natural fit for a Udall-sympathetic constituency???

          UDALL CAMPAIGN — WHERE THE HELL ARE YOU, and WHEN can we  expect some new Gardner-exposing/Gardner crushing ads on issues other than/in addition to his shamelessly fraudulent obfuscations on womens' issues?

          I'm mad as hell about it too, BC, and trust that more than a few of the good folks on Udall's staff will read and consider our comments..

        2. I'm reading this and nodding my head, BC. I don't know if Udall's people monitor this blog, but I hope so for his sake. I'm seeing what you're seeing and it's worrisome.

          1. Well this is supposed to be, what, Colorado's most widely read political blog by political types? So maybe. But if I know these know it all political op types, and I've met enough of them at campaign events throughout the past decade, they'll probably just dismiss it. 

            To be fair, green, inexperienced volunteers, long on enthusiasm and idealism and short on street smarts, often don't understand how this stuff works, don't have access to all the detailed data and internals and come up with some very naive lets all get together and put on a show in the barn to save grandpa's farm kind of ideas. The ops are perfectly justified in dismissing them with a benign smile. 

            But they can't just dismiss polls and the fact that their current crop of ads isn't moving them while their own internals show a very tight race too. Not unless they just can't believe this is happening and are convinced it's a temporary blip that will go away by itself. 

            Sometimes they're just too arrogant to admit they might not be right. Sometimes an op genius becomes a loser over night. Think genius Wadhams. Think permanent Republican majority genius Rove exploding in a major denial hissy fit on national TV, election night 2012.  And hope it doesn't happen to us in this race.

            1. Excellent summation. And we all had indeed better hope such does not happen in this race.

              I'm hearing rumblings of a soon-to-hit ad blitz from Udall and supportive PACS, and that Udall has been holding his fire intentionally for the moment, letting Con Man and his minions and oligarchic backers become fat, dumb, happy and complacent, only to lower the boom on them and break up their premature frat-boy victory dance. And again, last I heard, Karl Rove's dirty little group still has no pro-Con Man ads slated for the final two weeks of the campaign.

              Whether or not those rumblings are accurate, and if so, whether or not the coming blitz will contain any new ads featuring a host of issues — not just abortion/contraception — on which the GOTP remains extremely vulnerable, remains to be seen…

              1. I'm betting those rumors are true because that would make sense. If that's the case the ops are playing it smart while we bite our nails. Nothing wrong with that. A big finish is what counts in close ones. I did hopefully mention the keeping the powder dry option.wink Hey, new style smiley faces. Speaking of, Udall might want to take a few smiling lessons from Romanoff too. He looks so boyish and charming in those mountaineering videos but not in his ads.

                1. If you're not one already, BC, you missed your calling as a Dem Campaign Op!

                  And yeah, I like the new "smileys," and am definitely diggin' the new spell-check function too! (Thank you, Pols!) Now if only Michael's ongoing prayer for an edit function can also come to pass…

                  1. A pro Udall Medicare ad was on last Friday night  on one of the local Colorado Springs channels.  It was good.  I think more are coming.  

                    I'm recording news from channels 5, 11, and 13(boring) tonight, the early shows.  I was in Denver over the weekend and didn't watch much TV.  

                  2. I wish. I've never been more than an unpaid volunteer except for one campaign in which I managed to be a $10 an hour paid volunteer, the height of my political "career". Entry level political ops are all young. I never got involved until I was , shall we say, no longer quite so young.frown

    1. I think she's right to sick around. Obama won't get anyone like her approved with a possible R Senate or even a real close one. The best he could replace her with is someone more rightie-lite. 

      1. Agreed. I also expect to see the president and the Democratic Senate spit in the eye of the squealing GOTP congressional rabble and nominate/call a confirmation vote on a successor for superb outgoing U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder during the "lame duck" session.

        1. That is what we call a "fork" in chess.

          Your opponent must lose a piece no matter what happens – at least, that's how Congressional Republicans will see it.

          The reality is that they have only good choices – they get to keep the eminently qualified and conscientous crusader Eric Holder, or they get to confirm a new hightly qualified Attorney General, but it will be someone Obama likes! Oh nooes!

          Yes, I am a nerd.

  4. More from Sam Wang that troll boy ac seemed to omit :

    There is some chance that some of these swings were caused by a tightening of likely-voter screens by pollsters. Some commentators have focused on individual pollster biases. But I think that’s wrong. Such biases exist, but when one uses medians, as we do, those biases can only account for about 1 percentage point of change.

    In summary, the last two weeks have seen a swing equivalent to 2 percentage points in across-the-board opinion – and about 1.5 Senate seats. Today, Republicans are finally in the lead in national polls.

    TIME TO PANIC – OR GET THE LEAD OUT?

    As prone as some Democrats are to panic – and this is a real phenomenon among some commenters here at PEC – it’s hardly time for that. For one thing, polling medians in four races are within 3 percentage points or less (AR, IA, GA, LA; see right sidebar). And that is in a range where polling error, even on Election Eve, is possible.

    Let me show you something I’m working on. Here is a table of Democratic outperformance relative to polls, using mostly median-based methods. It comes out as follows.

    Election

    Outperformance (mean±SEM)

    2004 Pres. (nat’l)

    R by 1.4%

    2006 Senate

    D by 2.3±0.7%*

    2008 Pres. (nat’l)

    D by 0.2%

    2008 Pres. (state)

    D by 2.4±0.9%

    2008 Senate

    R by 0.5±1.1%

    2010 Senate

    D by 2.6±1.2%

    2012 Pres. (nat’l)

    D by 2.4%

    2012 Pres. (state)

    D by 2.9%

    2012 Senate

    D by 2.3±0.7%

    Average

    D by 1.5±0.5% (SD 1.6%)

    These are median polling errors in state-level races. They were calculated by comparing Election Eve state polls with actual Election Day outcomes. The Presidential findings come from comparing the final Meta-Margin with the margin of victory in the tipping-point state, i.e. the state that pushed the winner just over the electoral-vote threshold for victory. It’s a fairly impressive string of similar biases. The bottom line is that as a profession, pollsters have a small tendency to underestimate Democratic performance, by an average of 1.5%. Obviously this is off-limits to me for use in a calculation – but it is legitimate for you to think about, when interpeting the Meta-margin.

    The bottom line: It’s not possible to say who would win an election held today – even with the precision snapshot that I show on this website.

    WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE PEC MODEL?

    Since late last week, the Meta-Margin has been better than R+0.2% for the Republicans. Recall that I said our predictive model assumed that the likeliest range for the Meta-Margin was between R+0.2% and D+2.5%. That assumption is currently being violated. To state the obvious, some recalculation is necessary. That’s the bad news, from a modeling standpoint.

    The good news is that we’re in the home stretch of the campaign, a time when current polling snapshot is increasingly predictive of Election Eve polls. Inevitably, the PEC calculation will move toward that. We will base our calculations on a weighted average of past conditions, plus an increasing amount of weight to current conditions. The question on my mind is what to use for past conditions. We’ve been using June-to-now, but it might be more accurate to dial that down to September-to-now. I welcome nerdy comments on this topic.

    WHAT SHOULD ACTIVISTS DO?

    First, Democrats should get off the ledge – and Republicans should hold back on the Champagne (or Gatorade dump). Considering the margins of error in polling, things could still go either way: further gains for Republicans, or a reversion to where the race has been for months, a smal Democratic lead.

    One thing that activists should not do is waste efforts in places that are not critical. To pick an example, Kentucky is basically lost to Democrats. It would be pointless to expend effort there. That’s why outside-group ad buys for Alison Grimes have dried up. On the other hand, the most effective places to do get-out-the-vote and to spend money are the top states listed in The Power Of Your Vote in the right sidebar: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, and Louisiana. Maybe Georgia and North Carolina, though that requires more watching.

    1. Perfect.

      See folks? Even when Sam's aggregation appears to support the GOTP line, it's usually far more complicated than that — though Skippy and his cabal will never admit to that willingly, or at all. And notice how yet again Skippy has chosen to STFU and slither away in the face of this latest fact-based beat down?

      Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

      Again, do not panic, but instead dig deeper, work harder, and make a conscious effort to help bury the evil. I intend to take a multi-week sabbatical soon to work exclusively on intensive GOTV projects for the CO Dems. If you can afford to do so, please consider doing something similar yourselves. We can and will beat these amoral bastards, as long as we don't lose heart, or faith.

          1. I worry a bit about more delicate sensibilities than my own, Duke, but you're right — that's the word!

            Personally, I think that simple two-word salute should become our only response to you-know-who's posts, until and unless he learns to behave like a civilized, moral, ethical human being. Barring that, IMO, he deserves no further consideration.

            1. I agree with Duke.  While I do not condone course language, if you feel it is warranted, use the real words.  It is more authentic.  I cringe at the word "frigging" or "fricking".  Many people use them, but that is just wimpy.  There are far more interesting words, however, we should all try to use those more often.  But, that is just my humble opinion.  

              smiley

          2. Some of us try to keep it PG rated, so that school students like those in Jeffco still have access to the site.  School IT people   periodically go through any sites accessed through the school wifi, and filter out those with inappropriate-for-kids content.

            I've been known to let fly the occasional f bomb, when warranted.

            Like anything else, if overdone, cursing loses its power. And I agree with Ms. Jane – there are much more interesting words around.

  5. A couple of updates from the circus which is the Jefferson County BOE:

    1. Golden High School and Jefferson High School canceled  classes because of high numbers of teachers calling in sick.

    2. The BOE has added the draft proposal for the curriculum review committee to the agenda for the October 2 board meeting.  Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!

    Let's just hope they establish the committee and make recommendations to gut APUSH, sex ed., science education (evolution, global warming), and any other craziness they can think of.  Once they expose themselves, they may get recalled.

  6. Election Protection Squad poll watchers recruited for this November

    GOP state Senate candidate Laura Waters…er…Woods…um..Whatever. GOP state Senate candidate Laura Whatever is partnering with Kris Cook, host of the always bizarre Grassroots Radio Colorado, and Jen Raiffie, general right-wing nutbag and friend of Jeffco School Board Member Julie Williams, are trying to get together a Election Protection Squad for this upcoming election. Thanks ladies! Your nutbag friends will make us all feel safer!

    1. ZOMG — it's the White Pantherettes! Voter intimidation! Voter intimidation! I demand a federal investigation!

      They try to come near me or mine, they're gonna get a snootful of pepper spray.

      1. These right wing poll watchers are a real pain in the butt – they try to get in to sneak looks at voters filling out forms, they attempt to get into the bubble of a voter at a polling machine, they interrogate the poor, hardworking election judges, they harass people who look ( to them) like they could be "immigrants". They bring trucks with huge issue and candidate banners to the parking lots of polling places, and park just outside of the 100' safe zone.  Their favorite trick in 2012 was to use up all of the provisional ballots with BS votes, so that real people who were registering and voting on election day did not have the proper forms available.

        At least, that's what the Tancredo loyalists did in Jefferson County in 2012, and the recall people did in Pueblo in 2013.

        As far as dropping off ballots is concerned, the law still is that one individual  can legally drop off up to 10 ballots for others. If that's changed, someone please pull my chain.  If I were to do that, I would go to one that is inside, in a building, with paid election clerks at a desk, so that these nut jobs couldn't harass me.

        Marilyn Marks et al will be doing her best to have people stationed in these drop off locations – but rest assured, the Democratic party will also have its own legal people and poll watchers, on the lookout for harassment, and they will drop an injunction in a heartbeat if they see it.

        1. Correction – Tancredo, Jeffco 2010. And all of the activities mentioned except parking a truck with signs 100' away from the door to the polling place are illegal – violations of election law.   That didn't stop the RWNJ "poll watchers" from trying to do them,anyway.

          There is no videotaping or cell phone use allowed inside of a polling place, which would be another reason to drop off ballots only inside public buildings, not at outside drop off boxes, which I think are attended by a police officer on election day.

           

  7. 58% of Americans say it's time to legalize cannabis; it's prohibition, not legalization that is in the words of our Governor, The Great Social Experiment" .  A trillion-dollar failed war on drugs; lives ruined, cycles of poverty exasperated. 

    Just the way the old white guard likes it.

    If you are sitting on the fence on the Senate race and think a Majority-leader McConnell is going to move society forward, you might think again…

    Mitch McConnell: 'I'm against legalizing marijuana'

    "This whole movement in various parts of the country is a big mistake."

      1. I guess now we should anticipate a burgeoning "Horsey Appreciation" tourism industry in 23 unsuspecting states, with oat distributors and kinky "tack" shops popping up on every other corner therein!

        1. Janet Rowland tried to warn us about this 8 years ago.  Nobody listened……

          Perhaps Moddy has a animation of a horsie leaning back, smoking a cigarette while the cowboy puts his jeans and boots back on.

      1. Should parents whuse fertility clinic services that include discarding unused zygotes be hanged to. Should everyone who works at those clinics be hanged? Should you be hanged if you use a birth control method these wackos judge to be abortifacient

        What's really crazy is that instead of putting people like these guys beyond the pale,  the GOP puts many of them into elected elected office, allowing any rightie , no matter how far right, who isn't full on insane to be called comforting things like "establishment", "reasonable","moderate" although they usually don't like to be called the latter unless they have a tough race in a purple CD. Let's start being honest. The entire GOP is far right and beyond. Way beyond. 

        1. This is why women who have had abortions (1/3 of us of childbearing age, of all religious denominations) should come forward. Perhaps these zealots will have second thoughts if they see that they are talking about hanging their kid's kindergarten teacher, their boss, the police officer, their loan officer, the checkout clerk, their wife, their mother, their sister, their girlfriend.

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