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Good morning, Polsters…have you voted yet?
I voted the day after I got my ballot. Got the other two fellas in my house to do the same.
Eastern Time Zone for two more days; my ballot lies waiting in my Wray mail box.
Yes–received it at about 11 a.m.–it was back in the mailbox by 1 p.m.
Now, a question: Does anyone know many ballots have been returned?
(I know–it is early in the process, but I AM interested in the numbers.).
Harley, here is the pdf as of Friday with about 1.5% returned R's are up about 14% over Ds.
http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2014/10/17/file_attachments/333618/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B17%2B2014.pdf
I don't know where AC is getting his numbers but I wouldn't trust anything unless it came out of the Secretary of State's Office and in looking there, nothing is posted for the upcoming election. Primary numbers are posted but nothing for the general election.
Debbie, not to be a downer, but guess what the secretary of state numbers are today?
OMG.
Early voting approximately 4.3% returns (79,335).
Republicans 48.3%
Dems 30.8%
Debbie, I misread the numbers, it is R's 46.4, Dems 30.8. Only a 15% lead.
All 79,555 has voted for Udall/Hickenlooper thus far.
Shocked?
Got ours Thursday and finally nagged my husband into filling his out this morning. Will drop it off as soon as I get out of the house to run errands. Mine was delivered to a neighbor by mistake but she brought it over immediately. Mail in makes me nervous. I always hand deliver.
Dropped it off a couple of hours ago.
Yup. Mail waiting for postal pickup. Mom and I voted. The wife doesn't care even though she is registered but did not reregister when we moved.
Udall and Hickenlooper earned +2 votes.
Good Morning and yes my husband and I have both voted and turned in our ballots so two more for Udall and Hickenlooper. I get so mad at the media. MSNBC is now quoting another poll from Quinnapac that said Udall is only up 7 points with women and he must have much more than that to win. In my opinion, any poll Quinnapac does should be taken with a grain of salt but on the other hand if the .media keeps saying that the Democrats are doomed, maybe that will sink into people's mind that they need to vote and this is a must win election.
Ours are done and waiting for a friend who works at SOS office to drop them off for us.
…a little trip down memory lane this morning from the Twitter archives of our little watermelon sniper.
Michael, I'm worried. Where is that achole cool pic you promised? I hope we didn't offend him.
Man, I missed that one. I'll bet he got distracted playing with his pee pee. The Borg will not be happy about this…
I'm betting the Piss Ant just got tied up on one of the rightie blogs…he'll be along with his insipid bullshit soon enough, but at least we have pushed him down the page a bit.
I got banned already from Redstate. Really, I followed their rules, too – no cursing, no insults, no "talking points". My crimes were principled disagreement and questioning prevailing wisdom.
Too bad that we have freedom of expression on this forum, right?
My ballot has been voted on and mailed in. As soon as I'm settled here "up north", I'll see what I can do to GOTV.
Injecting reason, logic and a dose of reality would seem to be a bannable offense in the otherwise orderly fantasy world sustained by ignorance, paranoia, intolerance and financial backers with an Orwellian agenda.
Redstate is very afraid of you because you were obviously succeeding in getting through to a few of the drones at that site 🙂
One individualism is introduced into the Borg, well we all know what that will lead to 😉 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Borg
This is what happened at Uni-matrix Zero. (Star Trek Voyager fans will know what I'm talking about.)
Man, that's a long time ago. I was trying to remember which later episode (or movie) they attributed Hugh's individuality to finally infecting the hive.
When I first started reading comments here, I thought you guys were unnecessarily mean to AC. That was before I read maybe two or three of his comments. Now I get it. He's like Gail the Snail on It's Always Sunny. You don't want to throw salt on him, but he's so annoying you can't not salt the guy.
Complete revulsion to the Piss Ant set in when he used a photo of a murder to try to sell a cheap political point. Up until then he was disliked, but tolerated as we usually tolerate trolls for the humor they provide. Achole, as some call him, pushed that over the line and now deserves and gets nothing but condemnation and repudiation by just about everyone on this site…except Moderatus…who is essentially brain dead…
The WIF is a good little soldier for those bastions of humanity like Preacher Huckagee and 'stache' Bolton….
'Deplorable': Journalist's parents want conservatives to pull ad highlighting their son's beheading
He also posted a picture of a woman seriously scared by acid juxtaposed with one of Sandra Fluke while trying to make up some sort of point about birth control. He is a cad, a person of low character and a scurrilous liar.
Bonus points for apprpriaet use of "scurrilous."
His views are pretty much identical to Modster's but there's a truly evil creep vibe with AC, while Modster just seems like some poor kid who's drunk the Kool-Aid. I don't even read AC's posts any more because I don't believe he deserves that courtesy. Easy enough to gather what he said from responses. Besides, it's not as if his take on anything isn't entirely predictable.
He really crossed a line when he started with the beheading of James Foley. It's one thing to be a right wing shill (see "Moderatus"), but A/C is just a dirt bag.
Good news Polsters:
Sam Wang:
Daily Kos:
Hey achole, you forgot to include this to your fantasy gop takeover
The Problem With Polls, or…Are Senate Democrats Really Doomed?
October 15th, 2014, 11:49pm by Sam Wang
TNR essay:
Here at PEC, the calculations are built on the assumption that on average, polls provide an unbiased measure of eventual Election Day behavior. This assumption is our strength and our Achilles heel, and it is the topic of my new piece at The New Republic. The supporting calculations are here.
In the 2010 and 2012 elections, Democrats outperformed state-level polling medians by an average of 2.7 to 3.7 percentage points. That’s a substantial jump from previous years. To put this in perspective, the Senate Meta-Margin, defined as how far opinion would have to swing in close races to make Senate control a perfect toss-up, is currently R+1.3%. A polling error of 2.7-3.7% would reverse that margin. I have no idea if such a large error will happen this year. That would require knowing the reason(s) for polling errors, which could be multiple. However, the fact that it has happened in the last two election cycles does make a person pause. For this reason, the probability in the banner is a fairly soft number.
Usually there are 3-4 tight Senate races per year. At this point the playing field has expanded to seven: Colorado, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kansas. These are critical for both sides.
And you can now add South Dakota.
well played, denverco…
Tell us again, Piss Ant, how this thing is all over….
what an ass clown….
Pols, you have a real problem with your page caching. I had to refresh about 10 times to get the version of the main page that included this open thread. Prior to that the NARAL endorsement thread, with 2 comments, kept topping the page. I had the same problem from my home computer and my phone over the cell lines this weekend.
Thanks for the report–we've made some adjustments to the cache system after noticing a problem this weekend. Please let us know if it continues.
I may have been unclear. It happens to me now if I'm not logged in.
Me too. Also the recent comments stuck in time warp until I log in and refresh. Just did that and now have Monday Open Thread at the top and what I assume are up to date recent comments. I never have been able to access "my comments" since losing them in the first place. Mainly blank page but a few times the fatal error, too big message.
Me, three. It's time-warped no matter what I try. Except just now, when I searched for Monday open thread and here it was.
As for AChole, he should remember two years ago when the GOP and their front men at Faux were gleefully enjoying things on election night…until they weren't.
It ain't over yet.
I'm still having the timewarp problem described by Progressicat with my default browser (Chrome), even after logging in and out a few times. I switched to Firefox (with a clean cache) and while it still asks me to login, at least I'm up to Monday's posts.
Update: I just cleared my Chrome browser cache and that fixed the problem.
It's now a little after 1PM and am no longer having the time warp problem.
Still no "my comments" for me. Guess that's a lost cause.
For those of you not blessed by being on Cory's email list, here's this morning's mailing.
"I don't know where else to turn…
Mark Udall's pulling out all the stops.
First, Hillary Clinton is swooping into Colorado for a back-room, closed-door fundraiser with Colorado's billionaires to rescue Udall's Campaign.
Then billionaire, anti-American energy mogul, Tom Steyer, buys up massive blocks of immensely expensive 2 minute commercials to launch a last-ditch, full-court-press on my campaign.
It all amounts to a nationwide, collaborative liberal smear campaign against me. It's been launched across the web and television spreading lies and desperate half-truths.
AND I'm afraid without a quick response from our campaign, these Democrat money mavens could erase our small lead.
That is why I'm turning to you for an emergency "Stand up to Hillary and her billionaire friends" contribution.
We must mount a defense to the smear campaign, Hillary's endorsement, and the "back-room fundraiser" dollars Udall's trying to use to buy himself 6 more years.
Behind closed doors rumors are running rampant on how much they raised.
Combine that with the last minute spending by Tom Steyer — the anti-American energy mogul who is now sponsoring 2 minute infomercials full of lies and half truths — and this all ads up to a campaign emergency.
That's why I'm turning to you for help:
Emergency $10 contribution »
Emergency $25 contribution »
Emergency $51 contribution »
Emergency $100 contribution »
Your support is the only way to shut them down. With ballots out and 15 days till the votes are counted, this is the critical moment.
Thank you for all that you do,
Cory
DONATE
Paid for by Cory Gardner for Senate"
By that measure, Cory's own campaign has been a liberal smear effort.
He is truly earning his monike 'Whorey Gardner' this morning. Somehow I suspect Turd Blossom will make sure he has all the money he needs to fight the evil liburals.
High Plains Grifter is another..
Woe is me
How about those of blessed by not being on Gardner's e-mail list?
Let's send Gardner Monopoly money in lieu of real cash.
Tell him that's REAL MURKAN MONEY!
More Great News:
Per the Washington Post:
The likelihood of a Republican Senate takeover continues to increase with all three major election models giving the GOP at least a six in ten probability of winning the six seats the party needs to win take back control.
Two of the three models have moved in Republicans' direction over the past week. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver's model, gives Republicans a 62 percent chance at the majority, which is up from 58 percent last week, while LEO, the New York Times Senate model, now shows a 69 percent probability of a GOP win — up from 64 percent last week. (The Washington Post's Election Lab model show Republicans with a 94 percent chance at the majority last Monday and a 93 percent chance today.)
. . .
Iowa and Colorado continue to edge closer and closer to the Republican column. Last Monday both FiveThirtyEight and LEO gave Rep. Cory Gardner (R) a 57 percent chance of knocking off Sen. Mark Udall (D). Now FiveThirtyEight puts Gardner at a 69 percent probability of winning while LEO has him at 68 percent. Election Lab had Gardner at 80 percent last week and 83 percent today. In Iowa, LEO now puts Republican Joni Ernst's probability of winning at 67 percent, up from 57 percent a week ago. She has become slightly more likely to win in the FiveThirtyEight model (62 percent last week, 65 percent today) and Election Lab (84 percent to 87 percent).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/20/republicans-chances-of-winning-the-senate-majority-keep-getting-better/
Be careful what you wish for.
Again, owned by Liberterian Steve Bezos. WaPo has lost is news credibility a long time ago.
It keeps getting better. Today's numbers:
Early voting approximately 4.3% returns (79,335).
Republicans 48.3%
Dems 30.8%
How about that Dem turnout machine?
poor achole, how's the rash you ignorant teabagger
Colorado
The Colorado Secretary of State released the first day of mail ballot return statistics last week. To give some perspective, Republicans led the 1.7 million mail ballots cast in 2012 by 37% to 35%, but numerous surveys found Obama leading Colorado's early vote and Obama carried the state 51.5% to 46.1%.
This year, Colorado is holding all-mail ballot elections. While all voters have a mail ballot, voters may still vote an in-person ballot at special polling locations starting Monday, Oct. 20. There is no real precedent for what to expect from in-person voting when a state is using all mail ballot elections, but we know in-person voting is Democrats' preferred voting method elsewhere.
With one day of reporting Republicans lead the 27,640 ballots have returned 46% to 32%. Republicans are leading as expected. Beyond that, it is a little early to make projections, especially since in-person early voting has not yet started.
denverco, There are now two days released and the 14% lead is up to 15% with 79,335 ballots returned.
I misread the numbers. It is Republicans with 46.4%, a 15% lead.
so
At least this ad for McConnel is honest http://www.courier-journal.com/story/politics-blog/2014/10/17/realtors-say-mcconnells-for-sale/17461287/
Jefferson and Arapahoe counties tend to be good predictors of how things will turn out for statewide races. What are the numbers in those counties?
Jefferson County (Total: 13,829)
D: 4,352 (31.5%)
R: 5,961 (43.1%)
U: 3,394 (24.5%)
Arapahoe County (Total: 10,884)
D: 3,521 (32.3%)
R: 4,877 (44.8%)
U: 2,378 (21.8%)
– See more at: http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/#sthash.JZnYI5oC.dpuf
And Jeffco/Arapaco has already gone blue this election, ACHole… come on.. what shit are you throwing that *YOU* think is going to stick?
http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/20/republican-wave-senate-polls-show-good-news-democrats.html achole is stupid, ignore the troll
Exactly!
This is exactly how Senator Buck and Governor Tancredo won!
SAme numbers, same trends. 180° differtn outcome. Oh, wait… well, it's math, it doesn't always sound like you hope. But in your heart you know it's true.
WeTheEconomy…coming to a tablet, a computer, a smart phone and even a movie theater, near you. 20 short films you can't afford to miss. I found this linked on TPM.
https://wetheeconomy.com/
Lookie see what I just ran across http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/20/colorado-school-board_n_6015818.html?utm_hp_ref=politics This really is getting national attention.
On a new subject (this is an open thread) I try to be enthusiastic about HRC for 2016 but I sure wish she sounded more like Elizabeth Warren. It's not even a matter of HRC being so DLC triangulating centrist, which is probably a good thing for a presidential candidate, especially a woman. It's more like, what's her message? What's she passionate about? What's her vision, other than a vision of being the first woman President? You don't have to ask those questions of Warren;
Yup.