CO-04 (Special Election) See Full Big Line

(R) Greg Lopez

(R) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Biden*

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%↓

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

(R) Ron Hanks

40%

30%

20%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(R) Deborah Flora

(R) J. Sonnenberg

30%↑

15%↑

10%↓

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Dave Williams

(R) Jeff Crank

50%↓

50%↑

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

90%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) Brittany Pettersen

85%↑

 

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

(R) Janak Joshi

60%↑

35%↓

30%↑

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
November 14, 2014 11:23 AM UTC

The Big Line 2016 is Up

  • 27 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

BigLineFlag16PNG

The 2014 election cycle is about 10 days old, which means it's a perfect time to start talking about…2016!

We've updated The Big Line 2016 for your reading and complaining pleasure. A few notes to get you started:

► We are sticking with the percentages rather than returning to fractional betting odds. This is just easier for everyone, all the way around.

► Remember that the percentages reflect our suggested odds for winning a General Election matchup. For example, the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate will likely all have longer odds at winning in 2016 until the Primary field shakes out more completely (after all, you have to win a Primary before you can win a General).

► Because it is a Presidential Election Cycle, we are including the candidates for President — but only to the extent of projecting their chances at winning Colorado in 2016. You know, because this is Colorado Pols and all.

On to The Big Line 2016!

 

Comments

27 thoughts on “The Big Line 2016 is Up

  1. Yay!  George (Don't take Guilty for an Plea) Brauchler for Senate!  Because we need to fill the court dockets with more multimillion dollar, multidecade death penalty cases.  What better use is there of taxpayer money than promoting one's own name for higher office?

  2. I've got absolutely nothing to back this up but I expect to see a strong run against Ed's seat, possibly Don Rozier as he'll be in his sixth year at county and nobody seems to serve out their term at county.

     

    and then Ed gets back into double digits as he actually campaigns instead of just helping all the other dems in JeffCo.

  3. I am coming out strongly AGAINST Hillary Clinton.

    She is not the right person to lead the country for so MANY reasons, and none of which indicates female gender, but rather her policies and ideology.

    Hillary is a Third Way Democrat and it's something that has had massive failures since 2000. It's time to get rid of the ideological concept (suggest that they go join the Republicans or form a third party for the right-wing Democrats – I'm sure it should be called "Centrist" Party) The real Democratic Party can attract more voters by giving the voters messages that the Democratic Party will be very progressive, work for each person as whole, not give lip to the 99%'ers.

    I am backing Bernie Sanders as my candidate as President, and he will go Democratic when he's good and ready – he is truly a Democratic socialist, and he always give good messaging and identity for the Democratic Party.

     

    1. DP, Why settle for a socialist who isn't even a member of your party?  How about a Nazi?  A Commie?  The sky is the limit if you are nominating someone who is not a member of your party.

      I think Hillary is a great change agent.  She ought to help with the young vote. Maybe when the story is told about how Hillary tried to get a rapist off by attacking the victim back in the day will help drive the young single women voters.

      Personally I think Grandma Clinton is your candidate.  Having Grandpa Bill at the White House in charge of interns is like bringing back the good ol' days.  Pass the pop corn.

      1. Your party is the ideological home for the Nazis in the United States.  Remember when David Duke got elected to the LA state House, made the run-off for governor, and then took on Daddy Bush and Pat Buchanan in '92?

      2. Fuck the Fuck Off, AC. You Fuck.

        Those most closely resembling Fascists are your friends on your side of the aisle: the eavesdroppers, those who ignore the 1st, 4th, 5th Amendments, those who let the 1% drive the agendas. If not for our oblivious electorate, that you certainly help make so, it would be more obvious to everyone.

        Bernie Sanders has far more compassion and thoughtfulness than any number of you guys. 

        I'll take a Socialist like Bernie over any of your Sociopaths any fucking day. Choke on some tar sands while you're thinking that over.

      3. Let me decode the emanations from this  steaming piece of shit.

        Republicans have decided that Hillary Clinton's age is an issue.  Therefore, they are calling her Grandma Clinton.

        Eat shit and die, GOP scum.

        1. The political party that gave us two septuagenarian candidates in the last 30 years:  Methuselah One (Reagan) and Methuselah Two (McCain) is criticizing Hillary for being old!

          And they're looking at rerunning Mittens or running for the first time, the youthful, 60-ish Jeb Bush.

      4. Now, now. Every party has its socialists, maybe even the Socialists Workers Party. The Republicans have Chris Christie. Here the guy helped engineer gubernatorial victories in how many states, and Christie won't even be given a shot by his party because he's left of center to those right of right? Totally unfair. Still, using Bob Beuprez's crystal ball, I predict a possible Christie-Gardner ticket. You read it here first!

    2. Hillary also represents one-half of the Clinton team which say what you will, knew how to deal with a GOP controlled Congress.  (At least better than President Obama.)  While racially motivated as it is now, their hatred of the Clintons in the '90's is a matter of record from the Whitewater investigation to Travelgate to Vince Foster to finally Monica Lewinsky.  

      Ah, finally  a win for the Republicans but short lived)  The GOP Speaker of the House (Newt something or another) announced that Lewinsky would be the defining issue of the 1998 mid-term election.  It was and history was made when Dems broke an 80 years cycle of losses by the president's party in the 6th year of the president's term by actually picking up 5 seats for the Dems in Nov. '98.  This was nothing less than defying the laws of political gravity.  There were also zero net losses in the '98 Senate races for the Dems.  I'll bet Obama, Reid and Pelosi would have been content had that happened 10 days ago.

      Not content with their five seat loss, the following month they actually impeached President Clinton over his fibbing about a third rate blow job.  Newt Gingrich was forced to resign.  Bob Livingston was forced to resign over his marital infidelity in the middle of the House impeachment debate.  The House voted to impeach.  And the Clintons hosted a Christmas Party for those voting "no" at the White House that night after the Pep Rally.

      Henry Hyde, Lindsey Graham and rest of those clowns got to hold a trial on the Senate floor. On the more serious count, they couldn't even get a bare majority (even though the GOP held 55 seats).  It was a 50/50 tie. on the weaker count, it was worse:  54 to acquit, one for not proven, and 45 to convict.  Justice Rehnquist received a commemorative plaque for his service in presiding over this comedy act.

      And there were government shutdown.  A couple of them.  And how did they turn out.  IIRC, Bill Clinton got re-elected by a comfortable margin by something like an eight or nine point margin over Bob Dole in part due to his behaving the grown up during Newt Gingrich's petulant hissy fit over seating on Air Force One.

      Yeah, the Clintons were spin masters and triangulators and bunch of other things too, but they didn't take any shit from anyone and THAT is what we Dems need in 2016.

      I'm ready for Hillary!

    3. Did you also get a chance to vote for Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000?

      I like Bernie Sanders – he speaks clearly, with common sense, about issues that matter to the vast majority of Americans. But so long as he runs as an independent, he'll lose and probably help to elect a Republican (regardless of the nominee) in the process. Independents just have too much of an uphill battle in Presidential races, and the plurality election system virtually ensures that any success they have will be to the detriment of their ideological neighbors. He calls himself a Democratic Socialist, but there's no such party label behind his name at election time; he has no party machine to get him on ballots in the 50 states.

      Now, if he were to run as a Democrat, that's another story altogether.

  4. If Dust Puppy ever moves to our planet, maybe he'll back Elizabeth Warren and prove his animosity to Hillary really is because of ideology rather than ovarieswink

      1. Coffman has been whispered………he's not a great candidate and we should be able to kick his arse, but…….we'll be seeing a lot of this over the next 2 years and I truly believe Bennet needs to step up his game, at least pretend to care about true Democratic principles and at least pretend to support the president and quit saying "both sides do it"…….they don't. And he needs to quit whining.

        Republicans can certainly obstruct the president and the Democrats from legislatively enacting their agenda. They have been richly rewarded for doing just that and it is daft to think they won't continue to do it. They have no incentive to compromise — they win big in mid-term elections when they don't. 

        But they can also pass their own agenda with their majority and let the president veto it, thus "showing" that they can govern — if only they have a Republican president who will work with them. I suspect we will see a lot of that activity and certainly a lot of that rhetoric over the next couple of years. 

        You have to admit that it makes sense. They obstruct anything the Democrats want to do. Then they pass their agenda and either they pressure the president into signing noxious crap that his own voters will hate or he vetoes it and they get their base all ginned up for 2016.

        This has absolutely nothing to do with "governing", of course, since the whole point is to prove that the Democrats are incompetent and that the president is a tyrant who refuses to work with them. The only things that "get done" are those things the president does on his own and which the GOP candidates can promise to reverse immediately. (And if a Democrat wins in 2016, you can bet that the Imperial Presidency will no longer be tolerated by the conservative courts.) 

        Gridlock serves the Republicans well in any number of ways. But in order to have a rationale for a GOP White House, they may decide it's in their interest to "prove" that they can "get something done" if they can just get a president to help them. 

    1. Zing!

      I was thinking the same thing. Last time I checked they had so many doomed dems trending up AND with better odds that you had to shake your head and recall 2008, when they pretty much nailed each race.

      1. I thought the Pols did pretty well in 2012 with the bigline.  Midterms suck when you're a Dem.  We need another pot vote on the ballot in '16 to be certain our guys get elected.  Maybe the every sperm fetus is sacred people could help us out by paying for a pot recall initiative to get on the ballot.  Maybe AC could work on that for us.  Kthxbai, AC.

          1. Not your fault.  The site editor uses an HTML strike through tag (<s/>), iirc, that the site doesn't allow.  You can change it in "source" view (change to <strike/> tags), but it would be nicer if Pols fixed it.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

123 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!