CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
February 09, 2016 05:08 PM UTC
41 Comments
Still early (2%) but Rubio is in fifth. Nice endorsement Con-Man.
Kasich's showing a weak second, Trump ahead by 20ish.
Sanders barely breaking a 10-point lead.
Gilmore currently winning… …3 votes!
Marco is even trailing his mentor, JEB!
But not by much. There may be a hotly-contested race for fourth place between the two of them.
10%
Race is called for Sanders and Trump. Sanders' lead up to 15, Trump's down to 18.
Roob's still in 5th, Christie creeping up on him. Gilmore has increased his vote total by 466%!
Kasich in a solid second place for the Rs.
Kasich's strong finish in NH is, for me, the only real surprise of the night. I find it a hopeful sign – that at least someone who believes in governance and playing by the conventional rules of politics has won over a substantial segment of Republicans.
I've been calling the general for Sanders v Trump for a long time now, so no surprises for me on that lineup.
Kaisich bet the farm on New Hampshire. He's covered it end-to-end – 105 town hall meetings from NPR's reporting tonight. Anything less then 2nd or a very close 3rd would have meant closing shop and heading back to Ohio.
It might get him more coverage in the next debate; he doesn't have much else going in to South Carolina or Nevada – he needed everything he got tonight and then some.
The problem is … strong compared to what. It's still a tiny percentage, a very, very distant second to the percentage who prefer the vulgar celebrity thug. And it's still just New Hampshire.
Strong compared to the rest of the "establishment" crowd. If you add all the establishment sentiment up from tonight's contest you get 57% (assuming when you drop out all but one of them, their votes all translate into the last man standing and don't migrate to Cruz or Trump…). Someone has to eventually come out of that crowd, and sooner rather than later if they hope to annoint a hero.
Of course, New Hampshire isn't South Carolina or anywhere else where the Tea Party has run wild. Independents can vote in the primary there, and did. It gets worse for the establishment after today, until some of the more liberal states start voting. (And even then – can I just say the words "California Republicans"?)
My personal feeling is that Cruz and Trump continue to mop up committed delegates, and we wind up with a contested convention. And Republican Jesus will return machine gun in hand to wreak vengeance upon the convention if they don't go along with the ultra-right wing of the party in some way.
Like I said, I wouldn't get too excited about Kasich but your scenario sounds epic!
NY Times has JEB! holding in third place. Do you think wheeling out the big gun (i.e., his mother) was what did it?
I bet that could be attributed to Robio's error 404 more than anything else.
Looks like Jeb! finished 4th by a very small (1%) margin but no matter how small, 4th is a big psychological/possible momentum step down from 3rd.
Caveat, I'm feeling the Bern, although I am taking a course of penicillin to see if that helps resolve it.
Why does Clinton highlight campaign finance reform, even "upping" Bernie by reminding everyone that Citizen's United was about a group putting out a film about her, when she's so clearly open to attack on that front? If I'm Bernie, I just say, "If that's true, demand that the Super PACs (IIRC, there are multiple) supporting your candidacy disclose all donations immediately and going forward or stop their support of your campaign."
I don't understand what she hopes to gain by bringing up an issue that folks will assume she's against (evidence to the contrary notwithstanding) in the general, and she is so clearly outmatched on in the primary.
It is pretty hard to campaign on fighting Citizens United on the one hand while claiming money is not corrupting on the other as she does when defending her own Wall Street big bucks. If she really believes it's not corrupting than why would she have a problem with Citizens United? You can't have it both ways.
Hillary looked good in concession a lot more real than she has been. Sadlty, I think she is getting too much practice. On to South Carolina! And remember the old saying "Never underestimate the power of a woman."
She looked like the same ol' same ol' to me. I'm sure she'd make a very competent successful President but she's a pretty lousy candidate and I don't see any evidence she's learned a single lesson since 2008. You can't learn from mistakes if your over-riding belief is that you don't make any and that anybody who claims you ever made one is just out to get you. And oddly, Bill seems to be as lousy at campaigning for her as he was great at campaigning for himself.
*Nevada. Dems are holding SC on the 27th, Nevada on the 20th. Reps are SC on the 20th, with Nevada on the 23rd.
Wow. They got South Carolina to run two primary elections? That's got to be expensive. At least Nevada has caucuses and the parties shoulder the burden…
South Carolina did their primaries on different days last time too. And they're open primaries. But you can only vote in one.
It's looking at the moment like Clinton is tracking to a result like the CNN/WMIUR poll 61-35. If that's true, I wouldn't want to be in headquarters any time soon.
Carson should devote more time to doing his laundry after this. Fiorina can stop pretending she's relevant to the modern GOP; perhaps she can join Michelle Bachman in some kind of joint crusade against the moral ills of society. And Rand Paul can spend time on his Senate re-election campaign, which he apparently should pay attention to…
Chris Christie has to look hard at tonight's results, too. He took one for the team by taking Rubio down. Roboto will probably stay in to try and regain The Mo from Iowa, but he's going to lose to Cruz and Trump in the next two contests, and most probably to JEB! or Kaisich as well, and he keeps stumbling over the same words… JEB! could do the kind thing and get out of Kaisich's way; his disappointed investors have been looking for a change, but I'm not sure he's willing to let down the Bush name quite so soon.
I missed the news that Rand dropped out last week.
Looks like Joey's taking his bag o' donuts to go.
Thank god Rubio had the esteemed Senator from Colorado warming up his New Hampshire crowds …
… otherwise he would have really gotten trounced!
Looks like they'll need to make room in Supermax for New Hampshire.
I guess Carly's ego is right up there with Trump's if she thinks she's still even in the race. Though at 4% in New Hampshire they might at least let her in to the debates.
Especially if Governor Donuts suspends his campaign. That leaves a lot of space up on stage at the next debate.
It will be interesting to see if the next few caucuses and primaries continue to shuffle the "establishment" backmarkers, giving each of them an occaisional 2nd or 3rd place finish, diluting the chance of just one rising up to challenge Trump or Cruz, but depriving the two crazies from attaining a dominant delegate count.
Romney just might run a third time if a brokered convention reaches out to him to avoid a deadlock!
Fiorina reversed course today. She's suspending her campaign. More votes to Trump/Cruz!
Oh and in case anyone missed it and just to annoy CHB …. Bernie just made history by becoming the first Jew ever to win a US presidential primary. In whiter than the driven snow white bread and mayo New Hampshire, no less.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-judaism-primary_us_56ba9c23e4b08ffac1233818?y071fw29
And Trump hits some firsts too.
First to win while spewing expletives right up there on stage.
First to win while endorsing torture, contrary to the constitution. Bush always claimed none of the enhanced interrogation techniques were torture thereby technically sticking with "no torture".
First with a hairstyle look that can be recreated by retreiving a clump of cat hair from a brush and placing it on your cat's head. Works best if you have an orange cat.
First married to a third wife, unless I've lost count.
And in keeping with the Jewish thing, first with a daughter who converted to Judaism to marry an orthodox Jew.
Also first to proclaim how much he'd like to do his daughter if he wasn't the daughter's father. That probably also places him at the top of the ick factor scale compared to any previous winner.
So…. lots of history made ast night!
Ah…. the musical that gave us Sunrise Sunset so we can all cry uncontrollably at Jewish weddings.
Looks like we've stopped counting for the night.
88% counted on the Republican side:
Trump: 34%
Kaisich: 16%
Cruz: 12%
Bush: 11% (down from Cruz by about 1200 votes)
Rubio 11% (down from Bush by about 1400 votes)
Christie: 8%
Fiorina: 4%
Carson: 2%
Other: 2%
89% counted on the Democratic side:
Sanders: 60%
Clinton: 38%
Other: 1%
Note: under state primary rules, any candidate who doesn't get 10% of the vote has their votes counted for the plurality winner. (Yipes! Trump picks up another 16%, for a 50% vote total.) Not sure if this holds for Democrats, but if so Sanders would pick up the remaining 1+% which might change his delegate count based on various thresholds.
Regulating Banks vs. Displacing Them: Where Clinton and Sanders Disagree on Wall Street by Geoff Gilbert in Truthout.
Best article yet on the differences between Clinton and Sander's Wall Street reform plans. In a nutshell: Sanders says break up and disempower giant banks and corporations, Clinton says regulate them more.
Perhaps some of the folks who lost their homes and livelihoods during the ’08-’09 Wall St – caused financial meltdown are skeptical of regulating the way back to a working system, and backing Sanders instead.
Count me among the skeptical on that point.
As much as industry and big business scream and cry about regulations, they much prefer them to restructuring, or in the case of O&G ( my area of study ), moratoriums and bans. Literal armies of lobbyists and lawyers are dependent upon regulatory regimes to keep them happily in Fat City.
It can be true on the other side, sadly. There are non-profit, activist groups I have known that seem to have not much better to do than send e-mails and attend seminars while making sure to maintain their access by restraint. They like their jobs and want to keep them.
I have disassociated myself from one of the activist organizations, of which I used to be a member,for just that reason.
This Trump voter wants to cut out Congressional Pork spending!
– from Pellham, New Hampshire, Matthew1960 on Twitter and reported by Boston.com