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Sugarplums Dance In Politicos' Heads

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Dec 15, 2008 at 12:36:35 PM MST


UPDATE #2 no longer mere speculation.

UPDATE: If Mayor John Hickenlooper shows the same indecision about wanting to be Senator that he showed about being Governor, we're going to get pissed off. Train leaving station shortly.

In the absence of much confirmation on the many different possible career moves in the coming weeks based on forthcoming appointments from Colorado to the incoming Obama administration, we'll just throw a couple of the more plausible scenarios out there and turn this over for comment.

If Sen. Ken Salazar is appointed Secretary of the Interior as once again appears likely, Governor Bill Ritter will appoint his successor, which may set off a second round of special election(s) or appointments. One of the strongest candidates for the job, though consistently under-mentioned, is Rep. Ed Perlmutter, who has a good working relationship with Ritter--and has the moderate, insightful approachability needed to hold Salazar's Senate seat in 2010 and beyond.

Perlmutter's biggest competition for the appointment will certainly come from Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff. If you were at any point wondering why Romanoff seemed standoffish or even disinterested in the Secretary of State job, you can stop wondering. Romanoff is also a very well-qualified candidate for U.S. Senator, who could make his own engaging case for re-election when the time comes.

Frankly, it isn't an easy choice, but the dynamics that many say kept Rep. John Salazar from being appointed to head the USDA--the need to defend his battleground CD-3 seat--don't apply so much to Perlmutter's. CD-7 is a suburban Denver seat with many strong Democratic replacements to choose from, and the seat overall seems remarkably safe for Democrats today given that it was held by a Republican until 2006.

And if any of those Perlmutter wannabes are in office themselves, well, off we go!

Romanoff not aggressively pursuing the Secretary of State job has more or less opened the door to Rep. Bernie Buescher, who we expect will be appointed to the position. If he is, he'll immediately go on the '10 Big Line with very favorable odds.

And in the present climate of mind-blowing scandal around the appointment by governors of elected officials, we're going to stop complaining about Ritter's plodding, ad nauseum interminable committee selection process. We'll take "boring but honest" over "felony" any day--seriously.

Still on the horizon: undersecretary and high-level staff appointments that may well claim other elected officials at the state and local level.

In all, the opportunities fascinatingly abound--the economy may be tanking, but a lucky few have serious upward mobility in their immediate future.
Colorado Pols :: Sugarplums Dance In Politicos' Heads
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Sugarplums Dance In Politicos' Heads | 76 comments
If Ken Salazar takes Interior
Romanoff takes U.S. Senate, and Buescher takes SOS, then there would be no further vacancies created and the usual chain reaction would not take place.

FWIW, I disagree regarding the safety of CO-7.  This is a safe seat because of its incumbent, not inherently.  The district is quite competitive in terms of composition.

I agree that Rep. Perlmutter is a big reason why the 7th is safe
but I think Pols is right about it being safer than CD-3 would be if John left.

I say that because of the recent lopsided registration changes in Adams county. Almost 70,000 active registered Dems, compared with 46,000 active Rs. The key would be finding someone who appeals to the unaffiliated voters as much as Ed Perlmutter does.

http://www.co.adams.co.us/inde...


"Nice driveby spin" -- Libertad

[ Parent ]
Absolutely
John Salazar is a special case where 3 is concerned.  Especially with his high status appointment to Appropriations, I don't see why Dems would want to move him to Senate and risk losing CD3.  Several other better ways to play this hand, should  Ken Salazar be the one and I think he'd be perfect for Interior in any case.

Having John on the most important House committee and Ken in the cabinet would give Hispanics plenty to be happy about and would be great for Colorado and Dems in general.  

[ Parent ]
If John goes
another Colorado Dem would likely take the approps committee.
[ Parent ]
I don't think that's true
They'll likely give it to one of the other 27 Reps who were vying for the spot, none of which were from Colorado.
[ Parent ]
Perlmutter

[ Parent ]
I literally cannot find a single story on google or any of the political tickers
That mention Perlmutter seeking the Appropriations slot.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly...
this was a looong competition that no one else from CO was even involved in.

Freshmen don't get on approps, so count Polis and Markey out.  DeGette is already on a Major cmte so she's not going anywhere.  Perlmutter is a nice guy and all, but he didn't pursue it before...he's not going to jump to the top of the list now...

And I thought it was only 22 others that were vying for the spot?  :)

Michael Bennet is the new Abraham Lincoln.
- Sharon Hanson

[ Parent ]
I've seen numbers between 20 and 27
Durango Herald says 20, WaPo says 27 and then 24, Post said 22...

Let's call it 25. I do love precise reporting.

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's what it once was.
My personal feeling for CO-07 is that the district - like most in the state - has shifted toward the Democratic side of the fence since the last redistricting.

What was once a swing district is now probably a ~5 point Democratic leaner.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
Far more risky to run in CD3, I think.
Not that CD7 is completely safe but it is fairly reasonable to expect that we would keep that in Dem hands.

I hadn't really thought of Perlmutter. That's an interesting thought. I think he'd do well in an election bid in 2010, too.


--From a "real dick."
by: JO

[ Parent ]
What happens with Markey?
I think it would be important to look at Betsy Markey in the near future for state-wide appointment. She's adored by the left, but has demonstrated an ability to win in rural, conservative Colorado. That's an important precursor to appointment and subsequent statewide election.

I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner
Markey's got no track record
I like her, but she needs a couple of years in office before she would be considered for something like this.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
[ Parent ]
do you really think we're gonna put THAT seat in play in a special election?
   Betsy's biggest project is to lay the foundation to get re-elected in '10.
[ Parent ]
Should Perlmutter replace...
Salazar, Fmr. Senator Sue Windels would be a fantastic replacement for him in the house.

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  
Look closely at Andy Kerr...
Sue is a wonderful legislator and a hard campaigner, but she doesn't know how to win elections. She's won in the past because of outside influences. CD-7 doesn't need that.

I'd say Andy Kerr would win in a special election here, easily.


I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner

[ Parent ]
Andy would be an excellent candidate!

[ Parent ]
Also in CD7
... but from the eastern end of the district, you wouldn't want to rule out either Morgan Carroll or Karen Middleton.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't know how to win elections?
She's 4/5 and the only loss she has is against, arguably, the most popular elected official in Jeffco.

She's win and hold the seat comfortably.

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

[ Parent ]
Sue Windels has never won...
Because of Sue Windels. She's won because of powerful interests in keeping a democrat in that senate, and formerly that house seat. Sue wins, but not becase of Sue.  CD7 needs a low maintainence candidate who can win on his/her own, and that person is not Senator Windels.

I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner
[ Parent ]
Disagree...
Sue defeated (in an upset, I might add) an incumbent Republican for the senate seat in 2000 (Jim Congrove) after only one term in the state House.  She turned back a well funded challenger when Republicans targeted her in '04 (Jessica Peck Corey---of the Independence Institute).  She has a loyal following in Arvada/Westminster and would be a very strong candidate should she decide that is what she wants to do.

BTW, I don't even live in her district (I live in Moe Keller's), but I'd work my tail off for Sue if a vacancy occurs in CD7 and if she decides to become a candidate.

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

[ Parent ]
I've worked with Sue.
She's incredibly bright, and she's one of my favorite candidates ever.  However, she's used to having everything done for her. She's not very autonomous when it comes to campaigning. If she has a good manager, then it usually works out. If not, it doesn't.

I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner
[ Parent ]
Mike Feeley
I have no idea whether he would be interested, but if Ed is bumped up, I think he would likely support Mike if he wants it.
[ Parent ]
What about?
Rep Cheri Jahn?  After 8 years in office she may step up in a special election as well. Very electable would for sure hold seat for Dems.
[ Parent ]
Cary Kennedy
She's won statewide, she is not a white male, why is no one talking about her?

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
No charisma...


I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner
[ Parent ]
Perfect replacement then
For "Captain Sleepypants" Ken Salazar. ;)

I disagree that Cary isn't charismatic though. I am still having a hard time wondering if I'd rather have her or Andrew take the Senate. I lean toward Andrew because he's not in office at all right now, but either is pretty good in front of a crowd, and Cary is incredibly warm in person.

[ Parent ]
What's the difference between Cary Kennedy
and Caroline Kennedy? Did people support Cary Kennedy for Treasurer because they thought she was JFK's daughter?

If I suddenly want them both to be Senators just so they'll have pretty much the same name, does that make me stupid?

[ Parent ]
Perlmutter OK, but....
Ritter needs to appt a qualified candidate by race and/or gender. Another middle-aged white guy on the 2010 ticket is no help for the Dems.
Ramona Martinez?
Wilma Webb?

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  
[ Parent ]
Why?

[ Parent ]
"Ritter needs to appt a qualified candidate by race and/or gender"
Diversity is nice but we can't let an ethnic/gender paint by numbers approach put us in a straight jacket as a party. And we don't have to. We're already the party of diversity. We can and should be looking for the best and most viable and electable candidates to fill the available slots at a time when we need as much support as possible for a new agenda.  
[ Parent ]
If Senator Salazar's senate seat becomes open, I think Gov. Ritter should appoint someone who can be a good senator and who can get elected.
If the last campaign proves anything, it is that Americans, including Coloradoans look at the individual, not their gender, race or ethnicity. If we select someone based on the traditional criteria of race etc., we inevitably exclude other qualified candidates.

I'm interested in a candidate(s) who can be a good senator and who can win the 2010 election. It seems to me the two best candidates who fit that criteria are Andrew Romanoff and Ed Perlmutter.

Best candidate
Joan Fitzgerald.
She can win the seat in re-election and she will serve us well.
[ Parent ]
Really?
Win the seat easier than Ed Perlmutter? Serve us better than Romanoff? I doubt it.
[ Parent ]
Is she related to Joan Fitz-Gerald?
Who is, according to most accounts, retiring from elected politics?
[ Parent ]
"Qualified candidates" will be "exclude[d]" in any event.

[ Parent ]
What's that saying about
people wanting power should never get it?  Something.

Have you read the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Universe?  Read all five in the trilogy, you'd love the guy that runs the universe.

"Don't go all "Ralphie" on me now: Just let it go." - Steve Harvey

[ Parent ]
Read? moi? doubtful
...is there a mini-series I could DVR and then rush through?
[ Parent ]
There's a British TV series and a movie
You could probably rush through the movie.
[ Parent ]
Muchas g's
...those British are always saving the day.  First, "Coupling," and now this...
[ Parent ]
I recommend the Radio Tapes
The movie, not so much.  The TV series is good, though.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
The movie was a little weak
although I thought this outtake was so hilarious that it made up for the rest of the movie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

[ Parent ]
Perlmutter is the way to go
Ed might be part of the reason why the 7th is so safe, but there's no reason to think another moderate can't accomplish the same feat. As for the 7th, it seems like anyone with experience and moderate ideology could be a candidate. Should Ed get picked the special election might turn out a surprise.  
Agree that CD7
is a much safer bet for Dems than CD3. Don't think we have to be too concerned with picking a particular gender or ethnicity but it would be nice to have the right woman for Senate if possible.  The west has such a great tradition of strong independent women.  

I just think we're very lucky to have a Dem Governor, an opening for SOS and maybe for Senate as well and so many good options. Who could have imagined any of this, including a President Obama, back in 2000?

[ Parent ]
Amen
As long as she's not named Diana or DeGette.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

[ Parent ]
True

[ Parent ]
Michael Bennett out as Sec. Ed
CNN is reporting the spot is going to Arne Duncan from Chicago.

I think we've all come to the conclusion that Obama doesn't "owe" Colorado anything, but it could mean a Salazar pick is actually likely (I doubt there'd be two Coloradans in the Cabinet).

If Bennet is out
it looks even better for Sen. Salazar and whether Obama "owes" Colorado or not we certainly can't complain if we wind up with a plum committee assignment for John and a cabinet post for Ken. Yee-hah!
[ Parent ]
It done, Salazar has accepted
Damn.
I'm bummed.

--From a "real dick."
by: JO
[ Parent ]
Glad I'm not alone.


"Don't go all "Ralphie" on me now: Just let it go." - Steve Harvey
[ Parent ]
I'm with ya.

[ Parent ]
I think it's great!
Salazar is very well qualified for interior, has been very strong on the issues involved, puts an Hispanic in an important cabinet post and more openings for more Colorado Dems. His confirmation will be a breeze.  What's not to like?
[ Parent ]
If Salazar has trouble in confirmation
then no-one Obama appoints will ever get confirmed.  He's done so much "coalition-building" the GOP will take him, and he's a Senator, which doesn't hurt.

I think they have to pass another one of those pay decreases like they did for Clinton - so he's not taking a post where he gave himself a pay raise precognitively.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
I prefer that he stay as my senator.

[ Parent ]
Good Riddance
To Bad Rubbish.  Let Obama deal with this idiot.  Republicans hate him and Democrats too.  As an independent, I voted for him and now think him a panty-waist loser.  I like Perlmutter for Senate.  I hate the idea of Morgan Carroll as a replacement.  She is just not a good legislator.  Needs to be someone from Jeffco, the swing area.  Seems like Kerr is the one.
[ Parent ]
HAHAHA. I almost thought you had a brain.
...that was a close one!
[ Parent ]
Why not DeGette
4th Generation Coloradoan.  Consensus builder, actually has passed legislation in Congress. Ritter/Udall proof that Front Range politicians can win statewide.  But good to see some women's names out there.  For true diversity sake - what about some Western Slope women?    
I have no problem with DeGette
But I seriously doubt she would take the appointment. She holds a leadership position in House and has sweet committee assignments. I seriously doubt she would give that up to be a junior Senator who will have to take whatever committee assigment scraps are left.

She will also have to fight harder to maintain the seat in two years than either Romanoff or Perlmutter would.

[ Parent ]
Her statewide appeal is nil.
Udall in a conservative pant suit.  Maybe if she made an effort to wear jeans and a cowboy hat?  Denver Liberal in cowboy attire.

"Don't go all "Ralphie" on me now: Just let it go." - Steve Harvey
[ Parent ]
Haha...
DeGette has always struck me as a little like Nancy Pelosi.  Most of us from NorCal generally like her, but just about no one could imagine her running for Gov or something.  Outside of their districts, they're just not that appealing...

Michael Bennet is the new Abraham Lincoln.
- Sharon Hanson
[ Parent ]
DeGette is a joke.

[ Parent ]
now the serious handicapping can begin for a replacement
I personally think that John Salazar is the strongest candidate to hold the Senate seat in 2010.  Others might be able to win, but no one brings to the race what JS does.  

Now, that doesn't mean that Ritter will appoint him.  If he doesn't the next strongest candidate for state-wide in 2010 is Hickenlooper.

At this point, my money is on Hickenlooper getting the appointment.  I think there are a lot of reasons that Ritter won't appoint John (the appearance of a form of nepotism, for instance).  

So Hick it is.

I agree...
John would be a great pick, one, because he'd be a good Senator, two, he'd add diversity to the Senate.  Well, not add diversity, but maintain it.  He'd certainly be a strong candidate in 2 years.

I like Hick, and I think he'd be a strong candidate as well, but I wonder if Perlmutter wouldn't make a better Senator.  He's proven his legislative chops here and and in his 2 years in the House.

Regardless, this also makes 2010 a more competitive race if only because whoever the incumbent is, they won't have the money KS already has in the bank.  

Of course, there's also Romanoff...  :)

The next month should be fun...

Michael Bennet is the new Abraham Lincoln.
- Sharon Hanson

[ Parent ]
Good Lord.
John Salazar is just dumb as a post.  Good politician, but dumb.  The Republicans still have a bench on the West Slope.  And for you Democrats, we don't need another blue dog in the Senate.  He's not even pro-choice.

As for Hickenlooper, ask any Denver employee what they think about it.  Bet most say appoint him so we don't have to deal with  him.  He is roundly hated by everyone in the employ in Denver, and I know a lot of them.

I'm still for Perlmutter.

[ Parent ]
You have it exactly backwards.
...which is not surprising.

John S. is very smart, but he is not a great politician.  Certainly not as gifted as his brother.  That's why I think John would have a much tougher time holding the Senate seat than Ken.

[ Parent ]
Republicans still have a bench on the West Slope
What bench?  Beastiality Rowland and Josh Penry?
[ Parent ]
The way seems clear to me.
Now that it appears that Salazar has a lock on Interior, let the dominoes fall. If I were Ritter this is the way I would play it:

Send Romanoff to the US Senate. I had to think a little about this first. In my mind there are only two options: Romanoff or Perlmutter. Sending Perlmutter would continue the cascading dominoe effect of appointment and replacement. At some point that needs to stop and government needs to get back to governing, especially in the midst of the current financial crises. The reason I see only two options is because the first priorty of the Governor is to be sure his appointee can win in 2010 and will not spark a primary from any large group within the Dems.

Appoint Buescher as Sec of State With Romanoff in another posiiton there is no other viable alternative. Now that there is anything wrong with Buescher, but it makes the choice clearer without Andrew in the mix. Bernie has the skills needed to take care of that office and the ability to hold the seat in 2010.

Any other scenario would do one of the following:
1) put one or both seats in jeopardy
2) put a reasonably safe CD seat in jeopardy
3) risk disrupting the current majorities in the legislature in 2010.

In 2010, the party needs to not be terribly worried about protecting state wide seats. We need to be prepared to focus immense energy on the legislature. Whoever wins there, wins redistricting and gets to establish the advantage for the next decade.

Great point, Dan.
As much as I like Perlmutter and John Salazar (for the Senate), appointing either would set off a long string of special elections/jockeying among a bunch of folks.

It's like the situation about 10 years ago in the Bay Area.  Congressman Ron Dellums resigned mid-term and set-off a string of special elections that lasted for a year as one pol after another went after a different seat.  No one was served well by that...

Michael Bennet is the new Abraham Lincoln.
- Sharon Hanson

[ Parent ]
I like seeing that
it stops all these candidates who sit in a seat for 40 years.

Where you gonna go for business reporting software?
[ Parent ]
Yeah...
I like that aspect too.  What I don't like is people getting elected when only 10% of folks show up to vote in a special election, ya know?

Michael Bennet is the new Abraham Lincoln.
- Sharon Hanson
[ Parent ]
Your picks would suit me just fine, Dan
And as far as statewide seats, I don't know why Romanoff couldn't win statewide in 2010 though I think Perlmutter would be the easiest.  
[ Parent ]
From a procedural standpoint.
If a Congressperson is appointed to fill Sen. Salazar's seat, anybody familiar mechanics of a special election to replace them?

Specifically, who chooses the nominees? Is there a primary (seems unlikely given the short timeframe)? Or do the respective party apparatchiks select a nominee?

Congressional Special Elections
The Governor sets the date for special election. He can set any date except within the 90-day period prior to a general election and it has to be more than 30 days from the day he makes the announcement.

Each party's central committee for the congressional district will nominate its candidate. There well could be a mini-primary at either or both of the central committee meetings.

In Colorado, special elections do not allow for independants to play, but recognized "minor political parties" which I think is the current term for the Greens and the Libs etc, can nominate candidates if they chose to.

[ Parent ]
Perlmutter would be an excellent choice for the Senate seat
and aren't there a slew of term-limited Dems from the legislature who would jump at the chance to run for his seat?
Sugarplums Dance In Politicos' Heads | 76 comments
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