CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
July 15, 2016 07:04 AM UTC
32 Comments
WTF….. Hillary started this week in reasonably good shape in the polls, gets the coveted endorsement from Bernie Sanders on Tuesday and her numbers have been tanking since then.
It matters which questions the polls are asking:
Do you like Hillary Clinton? Do you trust Hillary Clinton? will receive lower-numbered answers than
Will you vote for Hillary Clinton?
I would be among the voters answering "No" to the first two, and "Yes" to the third.
Nobody ever asks about policy in these polls; if they did, I’d approve of some policies she’s promoted, and disapprove of others. She is also a flip-flopper, so policy approval would have to be time -sensitive.
Also, like it or not, there is a sizeable contingent – I’d guess maybe 5-10%) of Bernie supporters who will be voting for Jill Stein of the Green party in the Presidential election.
See my reply on your Trump billboard/ground water poisoning thread.
There is a lag. Many polls conducted over several days still mainly reflect the negatives from the e-mail scandal with Comey letting her off the legal hook but calling it really bad judgement. Wait a while. Things will probably look worse before they look better with the GOP convention coming first. Maybe take a brief break from checking polls.
Actually, HuffPollster has Hillary sweeping several swing states, so the trend isn't all that bad:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-trump-battleground-polls_us_5788d208e4b03fc3ee505ada?section=
RCP also has HRC ahead in North Carolina, Virginia and some other swings that will make it very hard for Trump and those include the time of the bad e-mail press. And Bennet's numbers have gone from good to great… two polls a couple of days apart give him +15, both newer than the +6, his low. Now that Pence is the pick Dems will make sure that everybody knows how truly extreme he is, not just anti-choice and anti–gay but even anti-birth control and believes that the US should be governed by Christian "Sharia" law. His brand, of course.
He may be more polite in his speech and refined in his manner but in almost every way that really counts he's the biggest loon of all among the final three.
Yep, I'm not even sure you could give Pence any credit as the "best of a bad lot". All Trump's choices are the worst.
Blue Cat nailed it. Hillary dodged an indictment but "Hillary dodges indictment" ain't the best of news. plus, conventions usually give a bump, though a short one. Trump in Cleveland may be a disaster for him, or street riots could benefit him on "lawn ordure" campaign. Then Hillary will name a veep, have a love fest on philly, and get her own (probably short-lived ) bump.
For now, forget national polls and look at underlying strength in swing states. Trump has irreversibly alienated Latinos and women. You just can't do that, especially women, and win a national election. Or so it has always been.
Well, it's likely to be the Gruntled Vote that puts Hillary over the top vs. the Disgruntled vote for Trump
Now official via Yahoo! News. Mike Pence will be Trump's running mate. I'm not impressed. If Trump wanted a qualified Hoosier, he should have solicited Mitch Daniels. But, we all know Daniels is smart enough to keep his distance from Trump and has a great job already; president of Purdue University.
Trump apparently IS serious about his CEO approach to governing. He'll do the big picture and leave the administration to others.
Mike Pence appears to be a competent administrator – at least, I haven't heard of scandals among his most trusted advisors or trying to run a scam University course, like others who had been considered. He does seem to show up on time. He has shown some sensitivity to disasters, showing up, lowering flags to half staff, and the like. He had the skills needed to become chairman of the House Republican Conference. He can delegate – in Indiana, he has four deputy chiefs of staff.
And he's a devout believer in Christian Sharia Law. Between Trump and Pence we could have a Theocratic Police state just like Daesh!
JohnInDenver: I can't come up with any details on short notice. But, I have read that Pence drank some of the Brownback kool-aid when it came to funding education. Pence also has not measured up well against his predecessor, Mitch Daniels, regarding general competency. It's worth checking into, which I'm sure the Clinton campaign will do.
Here you go CHB — all you would want to know about Dimwit Pence:
I am loving the "Periods for Pence" movement – and pondering how to make it work in Colorado.
Should women call Cory Gardner and ask him way-TMI questions about their use of contraception and Plan B?
To wit:
Good morning, Senator Gardner's office, how may I assist you?
Well, I just wanted to check in with Senator Gardner because my boyfriend and I were wondering which birth control we should get because Gardner said some kinds kill a "person" under Federal law, which he voted against, but then they're OK under Colorado law, and he said he's all about the Colorado birth control. So I was just wondering which type of birth control the Senator would recommend for us in our particular situation?
Ummmmm.
We have sex a few times a week, usually intercourse but sometimes other types, if that makes a difference. For instance…
I'll certainly pass that along. Click.
—————-
Guys and gays could get in on this action, too. Using the “Every sperm is sacred” meme, they could call in and ask what, legally, they should do with ejaculate from masturbation? Should it be frozen? Buried in a Christian ceremony? Blessed? Exorcised? What?
Mike Coffman might be able to dispense some medical advice, too. He is now a self-proclaimed expert in which types of health care women should receive at hospitals..
Another country heard from:
http://www.advocate.com/election/2016/7/15/donald-trump-clearly-didnt-ask-gays-about-mike-pence
Has everyone forgotten, or did they miss the boycott of Indiana after Pence signed one of those "Religious Freedom Restoration Act" horrors? Several states (including this one) banned travel to IN, conferences and conventions were moved, and the NCAA almost moved the Final Four. They've already said, "Fix it, or we won't be back." All together Pence cost the state billions in business and tourism. This is the seasoned politician His Hairness chose? More likely a bone to the religionists, who think Trump has the morals of an alley cat.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/13/one-striking-chart-shows-why-pharma-companies-are-fighting-legal-marijuana/
I saw this in the Washington Post. The story was actually about Big Pharma's efforts to stop medical cannabis chipping away at their profits.
Sit Down, Brands: Planned Parenthood Just Posted the Best Pokémon Go Tweet
We have a winner.
When you don't want to #CatchEmAll, condoms help prevent pregnancy and STDs. #PokemonGO https://instagram.com/p/BHzuFE_B1Ci/
Our nation's discourse
Republican officials will lie to the president's face, take the word of a Limbaugh or a Levin over provable, recorded facts/audio/video, and try to go on their merry way.
Obama would have none of it this week:
It's a never-ending job trying to rebut the lies of today's Republican Party that politicizes every event, action, policy. They lie willfully and without any hesitation and are backed up by a phalanx of Lie Enforcers in their media. But, they also accuse Dems of same in order to escape via the "both sides do it" dodge.
Democrats have to refudiate (sic) this crap until the press decides it really is their job. Both sides don't do it, and our side needs to make it clear every goddamned, lie-filled day.
In Non-Trump news, the coup in Turkey appears to have succeeded. Reports of strongman Erdogan fleeing the country with his family just coming in.
If I recall, the military actually supports secular democracy, so Erdogan's theocratic strongman rule lost him his support. The recent terrorist attacks proving that the concentration of power in one man was not providing the advertised benefits of greater security.
Erdogan has tried very hard to emasculate the Turkish military, but obviously has not been successful. Yes, the military supports secular democracy and the vision of Ataturk, the country's founder.
The secular military and the recent religious regime of Erdogan have never been on the same page. Don't approve of military coups but also don't approve of the direction Erdogan was dragging his country. He was democratically elected, though. But I have a friend over there right now. He's a professor who goes there to write and research every summer, and if it's relatively short and decisive without general bloody civil war breaking out …and it looks like the former… then my friend can just stay where he is, keep his head down and come out when its' safe. He's keeping us posted and doesn't feel in any danger at the moment.
As of this morning; Denver time; appears the coup may be fizzling out. If so, then Erdogan's hand is strengthened.
Maybe pre-Internet, YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, et al . . .
. . . no way today, when your military's just proved its ablity to plot and undertake an overthrow, and you’ve now subsequently lost at least 3,000 of your troops to arrest and detention, does this strengthen your hand as an unpopular autocrat, either at home or in the eyes of the rest of the world . . .
The weakness of the support for your ruling position is now word on the street. The clock is ticking . . .
I agree with CHB. He may be unpopular with the educated but not so much with the masses. The coup doesn't even seem to have had anywhere close to universal support among the military. And even among Erdogan's opponents, there doesn't seem to be much taste for a return to military rule.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/world/europe/turkey-attempted-coup-erdogan.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-ab-top-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1
Maybe. But, he's unpopular with the secularists, a good portion of his military, with the US, with NATO, with Europe, with his neighbors, he just recently stuck his thumb in Putin's eye, and the Islamists may not totally hate him today, but they eventually will — it's what they do — their knives are already sharpened. And, he just got shown to be even somewhat weaker and less popular than most of these folks assumed. At times like these when you need friends you can count on — I'm not certain Erdogan even thinks he can count to "one."
His days are numbered. The question is, what's and who's next?
Doesn't look that way today. We'll see.
I was proud of the people blocking tanks and talking the soldiers down. They believe that they are defending democracy. Even if Erdogan's an autocrat, his people learned last night /this morning that they are powerful.
It's probably the best inoculation against ISIS' recruitment.
Oy vey….. Ivanka Trump's rabbi has joined Tim Tebow, John Kasich, the entire Bush family and many others in declining invitations to address the Republican National Convention next week. At least they still have Daryl Glenn, Ted Cruz, Melonia Trump, Mike Pence and the Donald to fill the time.
And libby Szabo. Never forget libby Szabo.
Though we'd like to.