May 01, 2009 10:19 PM UTC

Supreme Court Vacancy Thoughts/Odds

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• by: adam.kretz

(SCOTUS Line – promoted by redstateblues)

In light of the comments in today’s Open Thread, I thought I’d post some analysis I’ve done on possible Supreme Court vacancies. I follow this stuff pretty closely, so for those of you who don’t, I wanted to provide a quick rundown of the possible replacements for this seat, and also some future possibilities were Obama to get a 2nd (or 3rd, or 4th) nominee to the Court.

The Supreme Court is an issue that affects ALL Coloradans, and the implications of this nomination will have reverberating affects for the day-to-day lives of everyone who lives in the nation.

I’d put the current odds at this first nominee being a woman at 95%. I’d actually go further and say that, in all likelihood, the first two nominees will be female. Probably about 60-70%.

Here are the favorites for the first seat, with odds, after the jump.

Sonia Sotomayor (3:2): The obvious frontrunner at the moment. Sotomayor was elevated to circuit courts by Bush I, and then to the 2nd Circuit by Clinton. She’s an hispanic, and she’s female. I’m not normally one for identity politics, as many of you know, but the Court is where I distance myself from that opposition. She would be slightly to the left of Souter.

Kim Lane Wardlaw (5:1): Judge Wardlaw is relatively young, and serves on the 9th Circuit (one of the “grooming” circuits for future nominees). She’s also Hispanic, but does have a more liberal judicial record than Sotomayor. She is seen, though, as more “reasonable” from the bench, as Sotomayor’s judicial temperment has in the past been called into question. In all likelihood, she’s someone who would get a 3rd or 4th seat on the Court, but not the first one. She’d be between Stevens and Breyer in current ideology.

Elena Kagan (8:1): Dean of Harvard’s Law School, where Obama was a student. Kagan is also his choice for Solicitor General. Musical Chairs with appointments to the bench isn’t uncommon. Chief Justice Roberts was first selected as an associate Justice, and Souter himself was appointed to the highest court only 2 months after his elevation to the 5th Circuit. Kagan is VERY liberal though, and would become the most liberal justice. She’s undoubtedly, though, one of the 3 most brilliant legal minds in the country NOT currently sitting on the Court.

Those are really the only 3 choices I see as likely. There’s always the propensity for someone to come out of left field (Ginsburg was Clinton’s 11th choice, for example), but if we’re playing the odds, I’d give “The Field” 40:1.

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BUT…there will most likely be more openings. Who could fill those? Here are some of the other options, a few of whom people aren’t really discussing but could be interesting political choices.

Kathleen Sullivan: Dean of Stanford Law. One of the foremost Con Law experts in the nation. Would face a very hard confirmation fight: not only is she to the left of Ginsburg, but, if confirmed, she would become the nation’s first openly gay Justice.

Rep. Artur Davis: A fellow Harvard Law graduate who is very close with Obama, being one of his first non-Illinois endorsers. He’s running for Governor of Alabama in 2010, though, and thus would need to lose AND an appointment come after 2011 for real consideration.

Gov. Deval Patrick: Replace “Alabama” with “Massachusetts” and “Rep.” with “Governor” and then just see above.

Sen. Claire McCaskill: Was a county prosecutor and State Attorney General before winning election to the Senate in 2006. A fervent Obama supporter (and avid twitterer…imagine that from the bench), she’d probably be too conservative for a majority of the Dem Caucus to push her to the front of the line. Could be a solid compromise choice, though, were someone like Scalia to resign (since the ideological shift wouldn’t be as drastic as with someone like Sullivan or Kagan).

Chief Justice (GA) Leah Ward: First black and first female Chief Justice of the Georgia Supreme Court. Interestingly, she’s probably the closest ideological match to Souter, and is VERY young (48). She’d be an interesting choice for Obama, as there have been no State Supreme Court Justices elevated to the highest Court in 85 years.

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That’s about where things stand right now. Politically, the search for a Justice is falling to Vice-President Biden, which makes Obama’s closeness to a possible nominee slightly mitigated. I think we’ll see 2-3 names by Memorial Day, and a selection by the end of June at the latest. They have until October to confirm the newest nominee before the Court sits next.

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