Thursday Open Thread

“The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and these are ignorance, superstition and incompetence.”

–Elbert Hubbard

Coffman Sponsors “Nightmare” DOA DREAM Act

Rep. Mike Coffman.

Rep. Mike Coffman.

Patricia Mazzei of the Miami Herald reports on new legislation introduced by two vulnerable Republican members of Congress that would, in the extremely unlikely event that it were to pass the GOP-controlled House, protect children of illegal immigrants in the country since 2010 from deportation–similar to the failed DREAM Act.

Miami Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo on Tuesday filed legislation that would allow people brought into the U.S. illegally as children before 2010 to remain in the country — a new version of the so-called DREAM Act.

Under the proposed law, immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally before Jan. 1, 2010, and were 16 years old or younger, could follow a path to U.S. citizenship.

The “Recognizing American Children Act” would offer high school graduates without a serious criminal record or dependence on public assistance conditional immigration status for five years. During that time, they could follow one of three ways to remain in the country permanently. If they receive a higher-education degree, serve in the military or remain employed, they could apply for permanent residency — and, later, citizenship. Those enlisted in the military would get an immediate chance at naturalization…

Who’s the other primary sponsor of this bill, you ask?

Curbelo filed the legislation with a fellow Republican, Rep. Mike Coffman of Colorado. Both represent two of the most competitive swing districts in the country, in states with a significant proportion of Hispanic voters. Coffman has received money from Curbelo’s political committee, What a Country PAC, intended to support Republican members of Congress who like Curbelo back immigration reform. Curbelo’s Westchester-to-Key West district leans in Democrats’ favor.

That’s right, folks! Rep. Mike Coffman, once the heir to anti-immigrant firebrand Tom Tancredo’s congressional district now representing a diverse and competitive district centered on Aurora, is co-sponsoring this new version of the DREAM Act along with another vulnerable Republican in a swing district. With that said, there are some important differences between Rep. Carlos Curbelo and Coffman–such as that Curbelo has consistently supported the DREAM Act, whereas Coffman once said “the DREAM Act will be a nightmare for the American people.”

In the past, we’ve seen Coffman’s gestures toward immigration reform lavishly rewarded by immigrant rights groups. This time, however, the praise is notably absent:

(more…)

Get More Smarter on Wednesday (June 22)

MoreSmarterLogo-SunscreenGood news: it’s still hot outside, but for today, at least, we should be able to stay below 100°F. It’s time to Get More Smarter with Colorado Pols! If you think we missed something important, please include the link in the comments below (here’s a good example). If you are more of a visual learner, check out The Get More Smarter Show.

TOP OF MIND TODAY…

► One week from today, the Colorado Primary Election will be complete. If you haven’t yet received a mail ballot, you should check your registration or address status ASAP. Go to JustVoteColorado.org for more information.

If you haven’t yet voted, you might want to get moving — turnout numbers are still pretty weak thus far.

 

► Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has reversed course and will seek re-election for the U.S. Senate after months of “unequivocal” statements that he would be a “private citizen” in November. Rubio is not a big fan of the Senate — he barely bothers to show up to vote — but since his Presidential aspirations didn’t work out this year, he doesn’t have anything else to do until his next bid for the White House in 2020. National Republicans aren’t opposed to the idea, since an incumbent Rubio gives them a better chance to keep that Senate seat in Florida.

 

► The Aurora School Board member and State House candidate whose resume appears to be almost entirely fictional remains defiant despite calls from the Aurora School Board asking him to resignEric Nelson is doubling tripling quadrupling down on the validity of his personal biography — which has largely been disproved by the Colorado Statesman and Denver7.

 

Get even more smarter after the jump… (more…)

Primary Turnout Still Wheezing Along Slowly

votebuttonWe’re continuing to pass along the latest turnout numbers from the Colorado Secretary of State’s office for the June 28th Primary, though things haven’t changed much since Tuesday morning (numbers are accurate as of 7:55 a.m. on Wednesday):

Democrats

Ballots sent: 989,879;
Ballots returned: 154,941;
Percent: 15.65%

Republicans

Ballots sent: 997,073;
Ballots returned: 163,550;
Percent: 16.40%

How does this compare to 2014? In the June 24, 2014 U.S. Senate Primary, there were 213,746 Democratic ballots cast, compared to 338,324 for Republicans.

For more information on turnout based on a county-by-county basis, click here (PDF).

Sierra Club Endorses Bennet, Because Obviously

Sen. Michael Bennet at Chimney Rock National Monument.

Sen. Michael Bennet at Chimney Rock National Monument.

A press release from the Sierra Club this morning announces an endorsement that’s both unsurprising and significant:

Today, the Sierra Club announced its endorsement of Colorado Senator Michael Bennet for re-election.

“The Sierra Club is proud to endorse Senator Bennet for re-election,” said Sierra Club’s Executive Director Michael Brune. “For the past seven years, the Senator has worked tirelessly to protect America’s treasured public lands, expand our rapidly growing clean energy economy, and tackle the threat of climate change. We look forward to continuing our partnership with Senator Bennet to preserve places like Camp Hale, transition to clean, renewable energy, and prevent further climate disruption.”

Since taking office, Senator Bennet has been a vocal advocate for tackling climate change head-on, protecting our public lands and waterways, and increasing clean energy technology like wind and solar.

“The Sierra Club has been a crucial partner on our work to protect natural treasures like Browns Canyon, Hermosa Creek and Chimney Rock, as well as helping to grow our state’s renewable energy economy,” said Senator Michael Bennet. “Coloradans understand the importance of clean air, clean water and clean energy to our everyday lives and environment. Together, we’ll win in November and keep working on collaborative solutions to protect Colorado and our planet for future generations.”

As a comparatively moderate Democrat, support from trusted conservation organizations like the Sierra Club greatly helps Sen. Michael Bennet shore up support within the Democrat base. It’s not like those voters would be likely to support any of the Republican primary contenders, but lingering bad feelings from Bennet’s primary victory in 2010–and of course Bennet’s middle-road voting record–could depress enthusiasm.

Between support from major players that voters recognize and the specter of any of the Republican alternatives, we’d guess that Bennet’s “base problems” won’t be much of a problem by the fall.

Donald Trump is Barely Running a Presidential Campaign

trumpHere’s why Republicans should be terrified that Donald Trump is their Presidential candidate…

If you’ve paid any attention at all to the news in the last year, you’ve probably seen dozens of headlines or ledes from reporters writing some variation of the story that Donald Trump is an absolute nightmare as the GOP candidate for President. Heck, you’ve probably seen a few versions of this post right here at Colorado Pols.

You don’t need a political science degree to understand that Trump is toxic to Republicans in a General Election, but despite the onslaught of negative news, Trump keeps marching along — which makes it difficult to gauge just how much you should really be worried about Trump if you are a card-carrying member of the GOP. But when you look past the pundits and the talk-shows and start digging into the indisputable facts on the ground…well, let’s just say that Republicans have every reason to be very nervous.

As Chris Cillizza writes for “The Fix,” Trump is barely even running a campaign at all:

Take Trump’s fundraising. He collected $3.1 million in the month of May and ended the month with $1.2 million in the bank. While Trump’s campaign released a statement Tuesday insisting that “the campaign’s fundraising has been incredible and we continue to see a tremendous outpouring of support for Mr. Trump and money to the Republican Party,” there’s little available evidence to suggest that’s accurate. After all, if Trump couldn’t raise any significant money in the month when he became the presumptive nominee why would June, where he has been beset by questions about his readiness to the GOP nominee, be better? [Colorado Pols note: Hillary Clinton raised $27 million in May]

Or staffing.  Trump jettisoned his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, on Monday. He still has no communications director. Put aside those senior positions and things look even worse. As of the end of May, Trump had 69 people on staff. Hillary Clinton had 685 people on staff…

…Trump is nowhere in the TV ad fight either.  He is currently spending $0 on TV ads in swing states. Clinton is spending $23 million.

Cillizza also points to a story in the Cleveland Plain-Dealer that shows Republicans are out-staffed in the key state of Ohio by at least a 3-to-1 margin. This isn’t just bad news for Trump — it should be frightening for Republicans such as incumbent Sen. Rob Portman, who is facing a difficult re-election challenge from Democrat Ted Strickland.

And unless Ohio is an outlier, there are a lot of Colorado Republicans who are in big trouble.

No Surprises in Final Senate Fundraising Report Before Primary

Ernest Luning of the Colorado Statesman reports on the final pre-Primary fundraising totals for the five Republicans running for U.S. Senate. If you’ve been watching this race at all for the last couple of months, you probably won’t be shocked to see the fundraising updates:

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet raised $1.65 million — more than 10 times as much as any of the Republicans hoping to unseat him — in the most recent reporting period, pre-primary finance reports show, although GOP candidate Jack Graham wrote his campaign a check for $500,000, bringing his self-funding total to $1.5 million.

With $5.7 million in the bank, the Democrat had more than six times the cash on hand of the nearest Republican. Reports covered the second fundraising quarter up until the June 8 reporting deadline ahead of Colorado’s primary.

Via Ernest Luning of the Colorado Statesman

Via Ernest Luning of the Colorado Statesman

As you can see from the graphic at right, none of the Republican candidates are remotely close to collecting the kind of cash that incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Denver) has continued to put together.

If we focus only on the Republican candidates, pre-Primary fundraising numbers are following the same general trend that we’ve seen throughout 2016. The only exception was foreseeable: Darryl Glenn is finally raising some decent money ($109k) in the first fundraising period since he captured top-line at the State Republican Convention in April.

A few other noteworthy items…Former Colorado State University Athletic Director Jack Graham loaned his campaign another $500k, and Jon Keyser inexplicably contributed another $50,000 to his own campaign. Keyser’s contribution seems particularly pointless; he needed a lot more money than this to catch his Republican rivals with any sort of significant advertising buy.

Here are the cash-on-hand totals for the five Republicans with one week to go in the Primary:

Jack Graham:  $882,800
Robert Blaha:  $278,177
Jon Keyser:    $173,484
Darryl Glenn:  $50,198
Ryan Frazier:  $19,850

 

9NEWS Truth Test Confirms: Donald Trump is a Giant D-Bag


Last night, 9NEWS’ Brandon Rittiman examined the ad from pro-Hillary Clinton SuperPAC Priorities USA now in heavy rotation in Colorado, hitting presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump for “mocking” a reporter with a disability.

The verdict? Yes, Donald Trump really is that big of an asshole:

Supporters of Hillary Clinton are spending millions to try and undermine Donald Trump before next month’s national conventions. The ad getting the most airtime in Colorado right now doesn’t go after Trump on policy, but attacks his character instead…

It features a couple with a disabled child highlighting a speech in which Donald Trump appears to make fun of a reporter with a disability.

“When I saw Donald Trump mock a disabled person, I was just shocked,” says Lauren Glaros before the ad cuts to a clip of Trump making a serious of awkward hand gestures and speaking in a strained voice…

It is true that the reporter, Serge Kovaleski of the New York Times, has a joint condition called arthrogryposis, which causes his right hand to rest held up in a bent position.

Since Trump’s comments and gesticulations about New York Times reporter Serge Kovaleski, Trump has claimed he wasn’t mocking Kovaleski’s disability, and didn’t even know the reporter to mock him–a claim that basically no one believes, since as Rittiman reports, Trump and Kovaleski have known each other since the 1980s.

To the bigger claim, that Trump was mocking Kovaleski’s condition, we rate this attack as “fair.”

If you compare the pose that Trump made you can see it’s quite similar to Kovaleski’s condition.

Obviously, this is not a weighty question of policy. But it’s very smart for supporters of Hillary Clinton to zero in on universally distasteful character issues like mocking disabled people–in order to build an emotional wall (pun intended) between persuadable voters and Trump’s campaign. Trump’s lack of personal likability is at least as important to drive home in the public consciousness as his mindless demagogic agenda, since for so many low-information voters, an emotive sense of likability makes all the difference.

And from macro to micro, the more of Trump there is to see, the less there is to like.

Poll: Who Will Win The GOP HD-16 Primary?

With the June 28th primary election now just a week away, we’re rolling out informal polls for our readers in a number of key races around the state. Safely Republican Colorado House District 16 is playing host to an unusual Republican primary race between incumbent Rep. Janak Joshi and former Rep. Larry Liston.

As with all of our polls, we’re interested in knowing who you actually think will win this election–not your personal preference.

Who will win the GOP HD-16 primary?
Janak Joshi
Larry Liston
View Result

 

Poll: Who Will Win The Democratic HD-3 Primary?

With the June 28th primary election now just a week away, we’re rolling out informal polls for our readers in a number of key races around the state. Highly competitive Colorado House District 3, presently held by Rep. Daniel Kagan, features a robust Democratic primary race between Jeff Bridges and Meg Froelich.

As with all of our polls, we’re interested in knowing who you actually think will win this election–not your personal preference.

Who will win the HD-3 Democratic primary?
Jeff Bridges
Meg Froelich
View Result

 

Poll: Who Will Win The Democratic HD-8 Primary?

With the June 28th primary election now just a week away, we’re rolling out informal polls for our readers in a number of key races around the state. Strongly Democratic Colorado House District 8, presently held by Denver DA candidate Beth McCann, features a closely-watched primary this year between Aaron Goldhamer and Leslie Herod.

As with all of our polls, we’re interested in knowing who you actually think will win this election–not your personal preference.

Who will win the HD-8 Democratic primary?
Aaron Goldhamer
Leslie Herod
View Result

 

Poll: Who Will Win The GOP SD-12 Primary?

With the June 28th primary election now just a week away, we’re rolling out informal polls for our readers in a number of key races around the state. Colorado Senate District 12, presently held by outgoing Senate President Bill Cadman, features a competitive Republican primary between longtime former Rep. Bob Gardner and incumbent Rep. Gordon “Dr. Chaps” Klingenschmitt of HD-15.

As with all of our polls, we’re interested in knowing who you actually think will win this election–not your personal preference.

Who will win the GOP SD-12 primary?
Bob Gardner
Gordon Klingenschmitt
View Result

 

Primary Turnout At 15%

votebuttonHere are the latest turnout numbers from the Colorado Secretary of State’s office for the June 28th Primary (numbers are accurate as of 7:55 a.m. on Tuesday):

Democrats

Ballots sent: 986,252;
Ballots returned: 145,572;
Percent: 14.76%

Republicans

Ballots sent: 994,450;
Ballots returned: 151,650;
Percent: 15.24%

How does this compare to 2014? In the June 24, 2014 U.S. Senate Primary, there were 213,746 Democratic ballots cast, compared to 338,324 for Republicans.

For more information on turnout based on a county-by-county basis, click here (PDF). For comparison’s sake, here’s how the numbers looked on Monday.

Tuesday Open Thread

“Suppose you were an idiot, and suppose you were a member of Congress; but I repeat myself.”

–Mark Twain