This cold blast to the Democrats shows two things: the impact of unlimited contributions on a race, especially late to the party, and how dicey everything is in Jeffco. Rosier's total campaign dollars at the end of the previous reporting period were $29,808.
Solich's late September $30,000 comes just after county commissioners voted on changes to oil and gas set back rules for drilling from 600 feet to 500 feet. The change conforms Jeffco to state regulations, but locals wonder "why now" when the Governor's oil and gas task force will report in March.
Voters in south Jeffco will be most affected by drilling, as some early oil and gas exploration is going on behind the Hog Back, near the Ken Caryl Valley in the south on up to Red Rocks and Morrison. "The Turkey Creek outcrop is oil-saturated," said Dr. Steve Sonnenberg from Colorado School of Mines in an article in the Columbine Courier.
Drilling in these areas hits three highly contested Senate seats in addition to the commissioner race: SD 20 Jahn v Queen, SD 16 Nicholson v Neville, and SD 22 Kerr v Sanchez. The County owns open space but may or may not own mineral rights, depending on location.
Rosier was earlier under pressure from south Jeffco voters outraged by a possible flag-pole annexation of Southwest Plaza to the tiny town of BowMar. Rosier supported the county's further exploration of the deal, but BowMar eventually bowed out. Rosier also did not step in to protect Chatfield Reservoir from its deployment away from its recreational purpose of 45 years.
Dems hold candidate campaign funds advantage
Individual Democrats have to spend more time raising money. But that also puts them in touch with many more voters. This election cycle tests the logic of the divergent strategies.
- 15 Senate seats are to the Republicans (doesn't include Sens. Herpin and Rivera)
- 13 Senate seats are to the Dems (includes Garcia)
- 3 seats are likely Dem: Merrifield-Herpin ($1.8:1), Jahn-Queen ($4:1), Solano-Humenik ($4:1)
- 4 seats are up in the air: Zenzinger-Woods/Waters ($2:1); Donovan-Suppes ($1.5:1); Kerr-Sanchez ($2.5:1); Nicholson-Neville ($2:1)
Contested Senate races give Dems the edge
The Jeffco Nicholson-Neville and Zenzinger-Woods/Waters races, along with Kerr's and Jahn's, may turn on impacts of the AP history controversy in Jeffco. Neville's wife Barb has helped sharpen her sister's school board message, but that's very bad timing for Neville.
Right now, the Democratic betting line for state Senate simple majority is 60-40; for a majority of 20-15, it's 50-50.
House secure for Dems
- McLachlan-Brown; money advantage McLachlan, registration advantage Brown; performance advantage McLachlan
- Primavera-Tinlin; money advantage Primavera; registration even; performance advantage Primavera
- Kagan-Benge; money and performance advantage Kagan; registration even
- Doyle-Keyser; registration advantage Keyser, party flip advantage Doyle, money close
- Cronk-Tate; registration advantage Tate, slight money advantage Cronk because of primary
- Young-Aricayos; registration, performance, and money advantage Young
- Tyler-Barnes; registration, performance, and money advantage Tyler
- Parker-Everett; registration and performance advantage Everett; party flip advantage Parker; money close