Quinnipiac: Hickenlooper, Thou Art Mortal

UPDATE #2: With a deeper look at the poll, we find an interesting takeaway.

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UPDATE: A reader points out, for what it's worth, the partisan breakdown of this poll's respondents: Democrats 24%, Republicans 27%, unaffiliated 42%, other 7%–certainly a debatable "cross-section" of Colorado voters. Kevin Ingham of Strategies 360, a pollster we've turned to frequently in this space for knowledge, has serious questions about the sampling for the poll.

We're more inclined to heed the warnings we've outlined below, even with some methodological quibbles.

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The much-anticipated release on a new poll from Quinnipiac University shows an early picture of the 2014 gubernatorial race–in the abstract, with plenty for incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper to worry about:

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Full story: Quinnipiac: Hickenlooper, Thou Art Mortal

Let No Tragedy Go Unpoliticized

UPDATE: The Denver Post weighs in with a blistering editorial today, slamming Sens. Greg Brophy and Kevin Grantham for playing politics while the Black Forest burns:

With several uncontrolled wildfires burning up and down the Front Range, you'd think elected officials would find a better time to play politics — particularly when their arguments are easily snuffed.

But that's not the case for at least two GOP lawmakers who are using devastating blazes near Cañon City and Monument as an excuse to attack Gov. John Hickenlooper because the state doesn't have a firefighting air force…

Rather than engaging in political finger-pointing as fire season heats up, we suggest lawmakers instead direct their thoughts and prayers to those whose properties and safety are threatened and the well-being of the first responders called into duty. [Pols emphasis]

Needless to say, we agree. And we're relieved to see the Post standing up to it.

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This week's heat wave on the Front Range has resulted a new round of devastating wildfires in many areas of the state. This morning, attention is especially focused on a residential area northeast of Colorado Springs known as the Black Forest, where many homes burned yesterday and a large mandatory evacuation is now in place. The Colorado Springs Gazette reports from the scene:

The Black Forest fire incinerated at least 60 El Paso County homes in a matter of hours on Tuesday, and a top-level federal firefighting team and military aircraft are expected to arrive Wednesday to battle the uncontained blaze.

The fire, which had burned up to 8,000 acres and run about eight miles from Peregrine Way to east of Meridian Road by late Tuesday, showed no sign of relenting and the evacuation zone continued to expand. Wednesday's weather, with only slightly lower temperatures and winds predicted, isn't expected to help.

The Denver Post confirmed last night via the area's Rep. Doug Lamborn that military air tankers based at Petersen Air Force Base would attack the fire today. As our readers know, the scarcity of large federal air tankers in recent years has been a source of controversy in Western states. Earlier this month, Sen. Mark Udall hailed the end of a protest filed by an air tanker contractor that threatened to ground the fleet during fire season. New, large passenger jet tankers are expected to be used this year, a long-needed modernization of the federal air tanker fleet.

Obviously, our thoughts are with the victims of this tragedy, and those threatened by either the Black Forest Fire or any of the others burning in the state.

With that said, we must now bring to your attention something rather disgusting.

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Full story: Let No Tragedy Go Unpoliticized

Hello, the sheriffs were actually standing with a gun criminal

(Like we said – promoted by Colorado Pols)

On Greeley’s KFKA radio June 7, gun activist Laura Carno asked:

Does [Senate President John Morse] stand by the Colorado Senate Democrats’ tweet that sheriffs, including the Democrats, are standing with criminals for challenging these gun control measures in court?

Host Amy Oliver, who doubles as a staffer for the Independence Institute and is promoted by KFKA as "conservative, intelligent, and sexy," jumped in (@22:30):

We’ve talked about that. They tweeted out, “Sheriffs stand for criminals and against law-abiding citizens.”

Oliver neglected to mention that, in reality, CO Senate Democrats tweeted that pro-gun sheriffs stood “with criminals” because a man who shot a gun at his wife was actually standing (physically with both feet planted) on stage with the Sheriffs, when they announced their lawsuit aiming to overturn new laws banning on magazines holding more than 15 rounds and requiring background checks for most gun purchases and transfers.

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Full story: Hello, the sheriffs were actually standing with a gun criminal

BREAKING: Major, Misreported Developments In Gun Lawsuit

Colorado journalists

Colorado journalists “report” on House Bill 1224 (acorn courtesy Jon Caldara).

Yesterday, apparently under the radar of most local media, Gov. John Hickenlooper filed a motion in federal District Court requesting an injunction legally binding the enforcement of House Bill 1224, the bill restricting ammunition capacity to 15 rounds, to the technical guidance on the new law issued by the Attorney General a few weeks ago. Here's the key portion of the proposed injunction from Hickenlooper's attorneys:

The Technical Guidance is an “official written interpretation” of HB13-1224. It has been adopted by the Governor and the Colorado Department of Public Safety. Official written interpretations of criminal laws are binding and create an affirmative defense for individuals charged under those laws. See Colo. Rev. Stat. § 18-1-504(2)(c) (providing an affirmative defense to criminal prosecutions contrary to “official written interpretation of the statute or law relating to the offense, made or issued by a public servant, agency, or body legally charged or empowered with the responsibility of administering, enforcing, or interpreting” it).

Pursuant to Fed. R. Civ. P. 65(d), the Court hereby issues a preliminary injunction binding the Governor, and any of his officers, agents, servants, employees, and attorneys,to the conclusions of the Technical Guidance as the official interpretation of the chief executive and chief legal officers of the State of Colorado. [Pols emphasis]

Here's the full text of Hickenlooper's proposed injunction, along with his motion for the injunction.

What this means pending the court's approval, as supporters on House Bill 1224 have long insisted would be the case, is that the new law will be interpreted under this order in the reasonable manner specified by Republican Attorney General John Suthers in his guidance when it takes effect at the beginning of next month. It means that the law will not "outlaw all magazines" as gun lobbyists and opponents like Dave Kopel and his boss Jon Caldara claimed and virally spread. Kopel actually admitted this development was a possibility at the bottom of a story by 9NEWS a few weeks ago:

David Kopel, the lawyer suing the state over HB-1224, says the technical guidance does not change the suit because the guidance can always be changed and constitutional concerns remain over having vague language on the books.

He did concede that the court may decide to adopt the guidance or set down other clarifications of the law in its ruling. [Pols emphasis]

That's exactly what's happening, folks. Yesterday's proposed order also requests a ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court on the major components of the magazine limit law. What we will then have, assuming their answers are consistent with this guidance, is ironclad assurance that the extreme interpretations of House Bill 1224 promoted by opponents will never be what is enforced as law. All of which would severely discredit the manufactured outrage over the passage of this bill, which was principally based on such misinformation.

And that's good, because those interpretations were always ridiculous, and only had credibility so far as a lazy, and in some cases willingly complicit media gave it to them.

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Full story: BREAKING: Major, Misreported Developments In Gun Lawsuit

“Hunter Boycott” Appears To Have Fizzled

“More for me?” Sorry.

AP reports via 7NEWS:

Colorado wildlife officials say despite threats that hunters planned to boycott Colorado because of new gun control laws, big game applications are up.

So far this year, big game applications have increased by 18,000 over the number in 2012. Colorado Parks and Wildlife processed 469,000 applications this spring, compared with 451,000 applications submitted in 2012.

The two most consequential gun-safety laws passed in Colorado this year, House Bill 1229 closing the so-called "background check loophole" on most transfers of guns, and House Bill 1224 restricting ammunition magazine capacity to 15 rounds, certainly received wide publicity among gun owners including hunters–as did the threats to boycott the state of Colorado in the wake of their passage. To be honest, based on the fever pitch of irrational outrage stoked over these bills, and misinformation spread around the country, we wouldn't have been at all surprised to have seen at least some drop in hunting license applications for the 2013 season.

So what happened? Why did the state in fact receive almost 20,000 more hunting license applications?

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Full story: “Hunter Boycott” Appears To Have Fizzled

Meanwhile, Down In Pueblo…

MONDAY UPDATE: As the Colorado Springs Gazette's Megan Schrader reports, organizers of the recall election against Sen. Angela Giron will turn in roughly 13,500 signatures today–a much smaller margin than in Sen. John Morse's race, and less likely to survive validity checks by the Secretary of State's office.

To put the ouster attempt on the ballot 11,500 of those signatures must be valid, which is 25 percent of the number of votes cast in the 2010 election that put Giron in office.

As we've written before, the general rule of thumb for collecting signatures — whether it is for a recall or a ballot measure — is to make sure to turn in about double the amount required. Because many signatures will be invalidated for a variety of reasons (wrong address, signer wasn't a registered voter, etc.), it is always advisable to make sure you have a sufficient cushion to withstand those problems. It's not impossible that the Giron recall could make the ballot with just 2,000 additional signatures than required, but it's statistically unlikely.
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As the Pueblo Chieftain's Peter Roper reports:

Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler warned local Republicans in March that it would be a "brutal" process to recall state Sen. Angela Giron, D-Pueblo, and that recall elections are far more complicated than they appear.

Brutal or not, Giron's critics in the gun-rights community have pressed ahead with their petition drive and predict they will turn in more than the necessary 11,200 voter signatures to Gessler's office on Monday to force that special election later this summer.

Over the last few weeks, we've heard about a renewed push by gun-rights supports to obtain enough signatures to force a recall of Sen. Angela Giron of Pueblo. When the recall petition campaign against Sen. Evie Hudak of Arvada folded, volunteers in that effort indicated they were headed to Pueblo to assist gathering signatures against Giron. It must be noted that, as of this writing, we have no information indicating that a paid petition effort is underway as was the case in Sen. John Morse's recall drive–and directly resulted in that campaign's delivery of over 16,000 signatures, which should be enough to survive validity checking by the Secretary of State.

Sources on the ground in Pueblo tell us that a combination of intra-Democratic infighting–locals can better speak to the nature of this but it appears to fully predate this year's legislative session–and a coordinated effort from local businesses, combined with the volunteer assist from failed recalls elsewhere, has given the petition campaign against Giron a chance of success. What we've heard is that this campaign will not turn in double the signature requirement like the campaign against Morse did, having only announced reaching bare sufficiency a week or so ago. The less pad they turn in, the greater the chance the petitions will not survive validity checks.

The key thing to understand about this is that local political dynamics, having little to do with the debate over gun safety, are at least partly responsible for the signature campaign against Sen. Giron having legs relative to other recall efforts that died on the vine without lavish funding. We expect that, should the petitions be ruled sufficient to proceed to an actual recall election in Senate District 3 this fall, everyone will be getting a crash course in frequently Byzantine Pueblo local politics. And we can tell you that some Democrats in Pueblo, who may have placed personal ambition and petty squabbles ahead of what's good for their party (they most certainly know who they are), might come to dearly regret the can of worms they've helped open down there.

Petitions are due tomorrow–stay tuned.


Full story: Meanwhile, Down In Pueblo…

12 Things Colorado Women Know That You Don’t

(Promoted by Colorado Pols)

Colorado’s 2013 Legislative Session is in the books, er, I mean binders. It was a doozy. Shit got done. Progress got made. And the women who make up 41% of the folks representing Coloradans at the Capitol were a huge reason why. We decided to take a look back at some of the highs and lows of the 2013 Colorado Leg Session through a lady lens. 

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Full story: 12 Things Colorado Women Know That You Don’t

Conservationists Thank Key Dems For Senate Bill 252

252HickMcClachlanFBAd

Via Conservation Colorado:

To thank the Governor and the legislative champions who made this law a reality, Conservation Colorado is launching a radio and online ad campaign across the state.

Listen above to one of our regional radio ads, this one thanking Senate President and SB 252 sponsor John Morse in Colorado Springs. Online and Facebook ads will also be running in these districts, thanking the Governor and key legislators for this momentous achievement.

In addition to showing goodwill between conservationists and Gov. John Hickenlooper following the signing of Senate Bill 252 into law, these ads also backstop a number of legislative Democrats such as Senate President John Morse and Rep. Mike McLachlan–both of whom have been singled out for attacks. In Morse's case, it's widely rumored that his co-sponsorship of Senate Bill 252 provoked energy interests to get involved in the recall effort against him, even though the bill exempted Colorado Springs Utilities. Certainly he'll be glad to see some support. Others benefiting from similar ads include Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush, Rep. Leroy Garcia, Rep. Millie Hamner, Rep. Mike McLachlan, Sens. Jeanne Nicholson and Angela Giron, and Rep. Ed Vigil.


Full story: Conservationists Thank Key Dems For Senate Bill 252

The Year of No Vetoes?

It requires skill.

Don’t try this at home.

FOX 31's Eli Stokols reports an unusual fact of this year's legislative session just now becoming clear, following Gov. John Hickenlooper's signing today of dozens of remaining bills:

“Our goal was no vetoes,” Hickenlooper said. “There are a number of these bills where there were things we weren’t crazy about, but it didn’t come up to the level of a veto. Politically, it would have been better to have a few vetoes.”

Hickenlooper lauded his chief strategist, Alan Salazar, and legislative liaison, Christine Scanlan, for ironing out the issues with all of the legislation that got to his desk.

“They did too good a job, they mitigated too many of the problems,” Hickenlooper said.

We wrote during the session about Democratic hard feelings surrounding the failure of a bill to repeal the death penalty, and allegations from some lawmakers that Gov. Hickenlooper had put his thumb on the process to ensure the bill's failure. Hickenlooper was also closely involved with the killing of a number of oil and gas protection bills from Democrats just as the session ended.

On the other hand, he didn't have to veto them.

Setting those two significant exceptions aside, it is a remarkable feat to have had no legislation reach Hickenlooper's desk that he was compelled to veto–a dramatic contrast to what many pundits forecast would be a contentious struggle to 'rein in' majority Democrats, and showing considerable negotiating skill in getting controversial bills modified to his liking. Overall, Hickenlooper and his legislative outreach team did a better job "herding cats" this year than anyone we can remember, or would have predicted in January.


Full story: The Year of No Vetoes?

Who Is “I Am Created Equal?”

I-am-created-equal-logo

As the Denver Post's Kurtis Lee reports today, newly filed spending disclosures reveal over $55,000 from a "Colorado Springs-based" (as characterized in most media reports) 501(c)(4) organization called I Am Created Equal to fund a paid petition drive to place a recall of Senate President John Morse on the ballot sometime later this year:

The organization, I Am Created Equal, bankrolled the organizers of an effort to recall Morse, a Democrat, with about $42,500 in May. That’s up from the $14,000 the organization supplied The El Paso Freedom Defense Committee — the group spearheading the Morse recall for his support of stricter Colorado gun laws — in April.

Much of this money has gone toward paying petitioners to gather 7,178 signatures ahead of Monday’s deadline. The group submitted more than double that figure Monday and is confident the secretary of state’s office in the next week will verify the signatures and in turn spark a recall election that could come as soon as September.

As a "501(c)(4)" organization under the tax code, I Am Created Equal is not required to disclose its donors. We had always suspected that the total amount required for this petition drive would be much higher than the $14,000 already reported, but we are perhaps a little surprised that the donations weren't spread out among a few organizations–or something to make this one nonprofit group, I Am Created Equal, less than solely responsible for getting this recall successfully to the ballot as they apparently have.

Because based on publicly available records, I Am Created Equal is anything but "grassroots." 

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Full story: Who Is “I Am Created Equal?”

Morse Paid Petition Recall Campaign Turns In 16,000+ Signatures

FOX 31's Eli Stokols reports, as expected, the paid recall petition drive against Colorado Senate President John Morse in retaliation for gun safety bills passed this year in the Colorado General Assembly appears successful:

The group working to recall Colorado Senate President John Morse over the passage of Democratic gun control legislation earlier this year turned in more than 16,000 signatures at the Secretary of State’s office Monday morning.

That’s more than double the number of valid signatures — 7,178, a percentage of voter turnout in 2010 when Morse was elected — that will be needed to force a recall election in El Paso County later this year…

[T]he push to oust Morse has drawn most of the attention from pro-Second Amendment activists within the state, not to mention a lot of financial help from undisclosed groups that have funneled money, through a non-profit called “I Am Created Equal”, to Kennedy Enterprises, which has paid petition gatherers to collect signatures.

16,000 signatures is enough to overcome even a very low "validity rate" for gathered signatures, which is expected as collecting signatures in a state senate district with poorly-known boundaries can be difficult. It's worth noting that for-profit petition company Kennedy Enterprises has never failed to get something on the ballot via petition drive.

Lynn Bartels of the Denver Post follows up today with more reports of deception from petition gatherers, in addition to video of similar false statements from a Morse petition gatherer that surfaced last week. There is some recourse for individuals who realize they have been deceived by a petition gatherer, allowing them to have their names removed–we'll be watching to see if anything develops with that possibility. 9NEWS:

Morse has several options available to challenge the signatures, including court action. Deadlines for the various challenges are spelled out in state law.

"Thousands of those signatures were obtained inappropriately," Morse said. "Now, will we be able to prove that? We'll have 15 days to figure that out. That's going to be tricky."

As of now, it does appear the first-ever recall of a sitting Colorado legislator is headed for the ballot.


Full story: Morse Paid Petition Recall Campaign Turns In 16,000+ Signatures

New Report Details Pervasive Oil and Gas Influence in Colorado

Colorado Ethics Watch:

Colorado Ethics Watch released Spend, Baby, Spend: How Oil and Gas Controls Colorado, revealing the powerful influence this relatively small industry seemingly has on legislation and public officials in our state.

Spend, Baby, Spend breaks down direct and indirect spending by the oil and gas industry to influence Colorado politics, and points out the return on investment for these corporations – weakened or defeated legislation that would have strengthened water quality testing requirements and eliminated a system where the industry is regulating itself.  In fact, the industry has long been lightly regulated in Colorado, with fines for spills capped at $1000 per day.  In contrast, industry-friendly Texas allows fines ten times larger…

From that report's introduction:

Colorado’s oil and gas industry has been called “the state’s most powerful” and few would disagree. The industry has long presented itself as a key job creator and driver of Colorado’s economy. Certainly, the industry has benefited from regulations that are looser than even some historically friendly states like Texas and Pennsylvania. As it turns out, however, oil and gas development is a smaller portion of the state’s economy than most Coloradans would likely expect, given the industry’s power in Colorado political and policymaking arenas. This disparity may be explained by the industry’s robust and effective spending on elections and lobbying.

Read CEW's report in its entirety here.


Full story: New Report Details Pervasive Oil and Gas Influence in Colorado

The Morse Recall: A New NRA Proxy War

UPDATE: AP has now posted a major correction to the story this post is based on:

In a story May 28 about Democrats facing recall efforts, The Associated Press reported erroneously that a conservative consultant said out-of-state donors helped fund her donation to a potential recall of the president of the Colorado State Senate. Laura Carno was misquoted; she said donors from other states have contributed to one of her organizations that will help in the recall but that her main donation to the recall effort to date came from a separate group funded by Colorado donors…

The corrected version of the story now reads:

The recall group's main funding comes from a $14,000 contribution from a nonprofit run by a local conservative consultant, Laura Carno. She said donors from other states have contributed to one of her organizations that will help in the recall but that her main donation to the recall effort to date came from a separate group funded by Colorado donors.

Obviously we're obliged to bring this correction from the AP to our readers' attention, as the question of whether the recall effort against Colorado Senate President John Morse is being "locally" funded, and the answer seemingly provided in this story, is an important point of messaging for both sides. Of course, since Springs-based GOP operative Laura Carno isn't required to disclose the source of the contribution in question at all, even this correction boils down to taking her word for it–and the fact of the NRA's involvement has been separately reported and confirmed. Original post follows. 

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Full story: The Morse Recall: A New NRA Proxy War

Oh, You Mean THOSE Jobs Bills

Setting the mood in a story last week from the Loveland Reporter-Herald:

"The Democrats in the Legislature? Their three buzzwords were cooperation, collaboration and consensus," Gessler said. "Remember that? And what did we get? … They used to accuse Republicans of only caring about God, guns and gays. And what did the Democrats come up with? It's guns, gays and grass."

Just before and during this past Memorial Day weekend, Gov. John Hickenlooper signed a significant number of bills that were high on the Democratic priority list, but were not nearly as splashy as the big issues tackled by the Colorado legislature like gun safety and civil unions. Last Thursday, Hickenlooper signed House Bill 13-1193, creating a new Advanced Industries Export Acceleration Program, sponsored by Democrats Tracy Kraft-Tharp, Mike McLachlan and Cheri Jahn, and GOP Sen. Ellen Roberts

Friday, in addition to Senate Bill 13-264 to encourage rural medicine residency programs, Hickenlooper signed House Bill 13-1003, a grant program for "second stage" small businesses ripe for expansion, and–a bill we've been talking about for years–House Bill 13-1292, the Keep Jobs in Colorado Act, finally putting some teeth into the longstanding requirement in state law that Colorado workers be given preference for public works contracts.

These bills signed heading into Memorial Day join other uncontroversial economic development bills passed into law this session. In the particular case of the Keep Jobs in Colorado Act, this is a bill that Republicans vigorously fought every time it was introduced, even though the idea behind polls stratospherically with voters. Now that it's law, it's a major talking point for sponsoring Democrats Pete Lee, Andy Kerr, and Jeanne Nicholson, with little the GOP can do to disparage it. 

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Full story: Oh, You Mean THOSE Jobs Bills