'Hotline' ranks Markey's seat as 11th 'most likely to switch party control'

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by: BobMoore

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

Tim Sahd of the National Journal’s “Hotline” puts Colorado’s 4th Congressional District at No. 11 on his list of 15 House districts “most likely to switch party control in 2010.”

Sahd includes the requisite caveat, “This list is likely to change, and some names may fall out completely by the time ’10 rolls around.” With that in mind, here’s his take on the 4th and its Democratic incumbent, Betsy Markey:

“Markey is running in a marginally Republican district (McCain took 50 percent here), and she won’t have the fortune of running against predecessor Marilyn Musgrave (R) again. It appears Republicans are champing at the bit to challenge her, as University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero is already in the race, and state Rep. Cory Gardner and former Fort Collins City Council member Diggs Brown — among others — are considering it. The GOP could win if the district reverts to its GOP-loving ways: President Bush took 57 percent in 2000 and 58 percent in 2004, and ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) never had much difficulty hanging on to this seat. But Musgrave was never able to shake her negative image, and the affable Markey won in a walk. Will a fresh face give the GOP its mojo back here?”

On my Coloradoan blog, I point out that Sahd reflects the national conventional wisdom on the 4th CD race, but misses a couple potentially crucial points. More details here:

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8 thoughts on “‘Hotline’ ranks Markey’s seat as 11th ‘most likely to switch party control’”

Libertad says:

April 23, 2009 at 6:25 pm

What weight do you give that (EFCA) in pulling down her support and increasing her negatives?

Also how will her blind support of bailouts be taken in the district?

What has she delivered for the district in terms of the big hitters – transportation, ag, manufacturing, logistics industry, and universities?

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1. BobMoore says:
  
  April 23, 2009 at 7:06 pm
  
  I don’t think EFCA, at least in its current form, will ever come to a House vote. Pelosi won’t let it come to the House until it’s through the Senate, and there aren’t the votes to break the filibuster. What role her co-sponsorship will play in the election depends on how the debate unfolds. In the meantime, she’s getting tens of thousands of dollars in labor support that will help her get her message out.
  
  Not sure what you mean by “blind support of bailouts.” She voted for ARRA but against TARP release and against the mortgage relief bill. Again, it’ll come down to how the debate unfolds in 2010. I’m sure the GOP candidate and the NRCC will hit her on the stimulus bill. How well that plays will probably be determined by the state of the economy during 2010.
  
  On delivery to “big hitters,” she’s been in office short of four months. Most of her earmark requests were for CSU; we’ll see what gets through. She’s gotten some ag-related amendments to bills that have drawn some national attention; National Journal, I believe it was, cited her as the most successful freshman in getting meaningful amendments through.
  
  Again, we’re more than a year and a half from the election. A lot will unfold between now and then.
  
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  1. twas brillig says:
    
    April 23, 2009 at 7:27 pm
    
    Don’t fall for it.
    
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2. ajb says:
  
  April 23, 2009 at 8:12 pm
  
  Do you truly believe that everyone who disagrees with you is an ignorant dumbass?
  
  We can debate the merits of the bailouts all day long (and have), but what do you expect to gain by insulting everyone who disagrees with you?
  
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  1. Libertad says:
    
    April 23, 2009 at 11:54 pm
    
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    1. ajb says:
      
      April 24, 2009 at 12:07 am
      
      doesn’t make it blind support.
      
      But your response evaded my questions, so I guess we’re done with this conversation.
      
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      1. Libertad says:
        
        April 24, 2009 at 3:20 am
        
        I can’t control your feelings and I am sorry that you feel that way. It was not my intention. Let me rephrase…
        
        What weight do you give he support and sponsorship of EFCA in pulling down her support and increasing her negatives?
        
        She’ll be cast as having blind support for bailouts, how will that be taken in the district?
        
        What can be done to contrast claims of blind bailout support?
        
        What has she delivered for the district in terms of the big hitters – transportation, ag, manufacturing, logistics industry, and universities?
        
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Meiner49er says:

April 23, 2009 at 10:28 pm

True enough, but what evidence is there that this is an option?

Yes, historically the district was bright Red, but Markey’s victory margin suggests there’s something deeper going on here than public disgust with Musgravity. That McCain barely held on up here is telling. Look at the demographics, look at the shift in sources of employment in the area, look at the issues dominating local headlines, and I think its fair to say that past is not prologue in CD4.

Doesn’t mean there won’t be a heck of a fight up here, but it does mean that the Republicans will need to find a different type of fighter if they expect to have a shot. Dems did just that, it worked, and she’s putting up a pretty good fight for her constituents so far.

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