Notable Links



Denver Internet Marketing by Parallel Path

Knowledge Messenger

Arvada Boutique Clothing Store Stella B's

Musgrave ready to be toppled!

by: Go Blue

Tue May 20, 2008 at 21:20:07 PM MDT


(Does anyone here on Pols like Musgrave? - promoted by DavidThi808)

Markey poll claim: An edge over Rep. Musgrave

"Surprising" results from an early campaign poll and recent Democratic victories in GOP-leaning districts nationwide have bolstered the confidence of the latest challenger to Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.

The campaign for Fort Collins businesswoman Betsy Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar, said a poll of 400 likely voters in the Fourth Congressional district shows her leading Musgrave, R-Fort Morgan, 43 percent to 36 percent.

"It's so surprising not just in terms of us being up, but to also be up by 7 points," said Anne Caprara, spokeswoman for Betsy Markey.

The early edge, they say, shows that the incumbent is ready to be toppled.

Musgrave's "make-over" isn't fooling anyone.  
Go Blue :: Musgrave ready to be toppled!
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Musgrave ready to be toppled! | 53 comments
400's not a great poll
Who's the polling outfit?  I know it's an internal poll, but it would help to know if it's a reliable pollster.

Musgrave needs cash and a new reputation; she's doing a reasonable job at both, but in a year that's looking to lean strongly Dem, she has to fear the results of those three open seat elections.

Incidentally, Democrats across the nation are coming up with good early poll numbers.  MS-Sen internal polling is D+8, AK-Sen polling by Research 2000 for dKos is D+4, and NC-Sen polling by Rasmussen has Dole down by 1 post-primary.  Of the above three, only the Alaska race is considered top-tier; Dole and Wicker were in the 2nd tier at best.  I may have to revise my projections upwards from the 4-8 pickup I quoted; currently Dems are leading the polls in at least 6 Senate races.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

Who's the polling company
The company that was used is Bennett, Petts & Normington - which I have learned - does polling for Obama and is well respected.  

For them to do a poll and not have it be reliable is not in their (the pollster's or the campaign's) best interest.

amolison

[ Parent ]
400 is pretty standard

[ Parent ]
It's a 4.9% MOE
A bit larger than you really want.  It is a relatively standard number for early polls like this, but it's no substitute for the larger polls.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
Polling Memo
The Post provided a memo which outlined some other interesting findings

• 38% want to replace Musgrave, while only 30% would vote to re-elect Musgrave.

• 48% give her an unfavorable rating, while just 37% rate her favorably.

• A majority (51%) give Musgrave a job rating of "not so good" or "poor," while only 40% rate the
job she is doing in Congress as "excellent" or "good."

• Most importantly, in the initial head-to-head Betsy Markey leads Marilyn Musgrave, 43% to 36%.

Very encouraging. This will at a minimal help Markey fundraise, sign up volunteers and raise some eyebrows.

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

DCCC ad
Apparently the DCCC posted this a few months back. It still applies.




"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

Hate Musgrave...
But hate that video also. Terribly edited, and I dislike anyone who portrays Iran as a threat to the United States.

I knew a stripper named Skyler once.  --TaxCheatGeithner
[ Parent ]
I fell asleep halfway through - That Mono tone announcer zzzzzzzzz


Some men see things as they are, and ask why! ...I dream things that could be and ask,  Why Not !
[ Parent ]
Yack!
Can you say "push poll".

I'm not going to start a Musgrave fan club anytime soon, but this has push poll written all over it. There's no way Markey has the name ID to beat a three term incumbant right now. She may in November, but this is just completely ludicrous.

I'm reminded of that push poll Fawcett floated to the media in 06 that gave him a 13 point lead on Lamborn, only to watch him get waxed by 20 points on election day. What a joke. Thanks be to colopols for giving this credence.

Thanks be to colopols for giving this credence
The diary is based on a Denver Post story, which Go Blue cites above. it's probably a topic of conversation whether ColoPols front-pages it or not.
[ Parent ]
The funny part
Is that David frontpaged it.
[ Parent ]
Demographics?
Musgrave has name recognition, but much of that is negative name recognition, particularly after the 2006 campaign which was predominantly negative on both sides.  I doubt most voters know who Markey is, but most know she is not Musgrave.

That said, I would be curious how closely the demographics of the poll match the demographics of the 4th CD.  You can get some wide swings depending on whether you poll voters on the eastern plains, in Weld County or in Larimer & Boulder County.

[ Parent ]
Was looking for that as well
The voter registration demographics were designed to match the registration of the district, but as you say, you can get a pretty wide swing by polling different regions, too.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
Key Difference With Fawcett's Poll
If you take a look at the polling memo, you will note that the numbers in this story are from the "initial head to head" matchup; in other words, truly accurate representations of where voters are now.

The numbers floated by the Fawcett camp in '06 were "educated" matchups; in other words, they were numbers that represented where voters where after statements and issues from both candidates were read to them during the poll.

Finally, this always seems to be a discussion on Pols, but can folks please start using the term "push poll" correctly?  Neither the Fawcett poll or the Markey poll were anything like push polls.  Both were legitimate polls to guage the views of voters (Fawcett's was to test messages on voters to see which worked best). "Push polls" are not at all about the results, but instead polls that -- usually at the last minute -- are intended to change voters' minds as they prepare to vote.  Push polls aren't even really polls at all; they are meant to trick people into thinking they are polls in order to spread negative information widely to the public.  A sample size of 400 would not be a push poll.  A "sample size" of 40,000 would be more likely in a push poll.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Like the "poll" Bob Schaffer and Mike Huckabee's group Common Sense Issues did last fall in which the sample seemed to consist of every registered Democrat in Colorado and no Republicans or Independents.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

[ Parent ]
Another dumb guy
Jay Fawcett is just about the only guy to run for Congress to be as dumb as the two Wills. Fawcett was dead even somehow in mid-October, loses by over 20 points and goes around patting himself and his campaign manager on the back for a well run campaign. Only a dumb guy goes from dead even to a twenty point loss and thinks he did a good job. If you doubt the dead even in mid October number check the Almanac of American Politics for verification.

There are few people in that district dumber than Doug Lamborn and Jay is one of them.

[ Parent ]
How much dope
do you smoke every day?
[ Parent ]
I did not intend
to insult all cannabis users. But, this guy, Which Will, seems to be going for poster child status. And, almost anything that really addresses his idiocy will only seem to mock the less educated and the less intelligent.
[ Parent ]
I believe the technical term
is moron.

It's the same phenomenon when you're pregnant, or buy a Volkswagon Bug. Suddenly, that's all you see, everywhere.

Which Will's parents must have broken the news to him recently. Poor guy.

[ Parent ]
Are you saying Jay Fawcett and the two Wills are not dumb?
If you are saying they are not dumb than it is thee who is smoking dope. One Will says that his e-mail list was stolen, the other Will only knows he is running because his Daddy is Bill Armstrong and Jay Fawcett claims a moral victory for getting whooped by 20 points after being dead even less than a month earlier.
These are three dumb guys.  
[ Parent ]
Don't know Armstrong or Shafroth
and have never heard them speak. Fawcett is a very bright guy and you are not.

How much dope have you smoked today?

[ Parent ]
Actually, what all of us are saying
is that you are the dumbest sockpuppet to blight this blog.  
[ Parent ]
Blunt...
But hard to find fault with such eloquent words. ;)

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
ok, you hurt my feelings
My feelings are bruised.

However, Will, Will and Jay are three of the dumbest guys ever to seek public office in this state. Jay Fawcett is actually still telling people that he ran a strong race. This despite going from dead even to a twenty point loss. Shafroth's website is bereft of any original ideas and in debates he is clueless. The same can be said of Will "My Daddy is Bill Armstrong" Armstrong.
I sure hope the Post is not thinking of endorsing one of these guys.
David and Bob try to be hip by using the term sock puppet. What they cannot do is give examples of either Will showing the depth required to be an effective member of the United States Congress.  

[ Parent ]
The problem with explaining things to you
Is we need to use words with more than 1 syllable and we're afraid that's beyond your level of comprehension.

Tom Tancredo Interview
[ Parent ]
Beauprez?
Can we talk about going from dead even to losing by 15-20 points without talking about the ever-exciting and riveting speaker Bob Beauprez?

The difference between Jay and other candidates you want to classify as dumb is that Jay is quite bright, but strays from his message when he gets in large groups. He's not the most amiable person when you first meet him (I would know...I worked on the campaign). Will is actually quite eloquent and bright as well.

I'm just confused as to what makes a candidate "dumb" in your book. I would venture that you are conflating what is idiocy (like your comments) with an inability to connect with voters (like the Fawcett campaign).

[ Parent ]
Jay is Dumb
Jay is the kind of guy who spent his military career running mess halls.

What frankly qualifies him as truly dumb is how after the election he ran around with his campaign manager patting themselves on the back and claiming a moral victory. Jay ran behind every Democrat in his District regardless of the office they were running for. Jay had a chance of winning the election and blew it with an inept and incompetent campaign. That is OK. But, to brag about a campaign that was so poorly run proves he is just plain dumb.  

[ Parent ]
Sheesh
Anyone who claims a live 400-sample head-to-head is an example of a "push poll" is a moron. Push polls don't work until really close to an election, and you have to have tens of thousands of contacts to make a push poll worth the investment. That's why most of them are automated.  

"It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering my reasons for them!" - Nietzsche  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Not that the Republicans are incapable of throwing money at push polls a year out...see above.

Then again Republicans are pretty good at throwing money towards things that don't work. Wars of choice, bridges to nowhere, subsidies to oil companies, etc.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

[ Parent ]
I'm curious why...
...people insist on analyzing the 4th CD in terms of Markey vs. Musgrave, name recognition on the eastern plains, how many people were polled, etc. There is a large and growing body of evidence that people across the board are demanding a serious change from the trove of disastrous failures left from the Bush years. That translates into "let's give the Democrats a try; things can't be allowed to get any worse." Does Musgrave have a single iota of identity that would distinguish her from Bush/Cheney? (I don't think so either.)

This is not your normal election year wherein we can predict the outcome based on the past. If the GOP can't hold right-wing deep-red Mississippi, they certainly can't hold the 4th CD.

The mississippi race had no incumbent.
Incumbency, especially three terms of it, is a massive advantage. I grew up in what is now the 4th CD and it always breaks Democrats' hearts. The last D to win it was Wayne Aspinall, bete noir of the enviros and chairman of the mighty Interior Committee.  
[ Parent ]
Does anyone remember
who was the last incumbent member of Congress to be defeated in Colorado? And then the instance prior to that?

(Hint: It was a long time ago)

(That's not a very good hint. But Ewegen probably knows.)

[ Parent ]
Floyd Haskell?
I know he lost to Bill Armstrong - don't know if there was one after him.

Tom Tancredo Interview
[ Parent ]
No, but good guess
Haskell was the last senator from Colorado to be defeated. It was during an unusual period of turnover in the Colorado delegation -- two years earlier, whippersnapper Gary Hart took down Peter Dominick. Haskell himself defeated Gordon Allott, a three-term Republican, in 1970.

But there was a more recent incumbent defeat in the House of Representatives, and another before that.

[ Parent ]
the guy who held C.D. 3 back in the '80s

[ Parent ]
The aforementioned Aspinall
lost to Alan Merson in a Democratic primary in 1972.  Merson then lost to Republican Jim Johnson. Likewise, in 1970, liberal Craig Barnes ousted longtime Democrat Byron Rogers in a Democratic primary, only to lose to Republican "Iron Mike" McKevitt.  in 1972, Pat Schroeder re-united Democrats and defeated McKevitt, beginning a long reign. The biggest stunner was 1972 when three-term incumbent Gordon Allott lost to Republican turned Democrat Floyd Haskell.  Six years later, Haskell lost to Armstrong. In 1974, Tim Wirth defeated Don Brotzman in what was then the 2nd.  So, I'd guess the most recent incumbent to lose was Haskell in 78, and the latest before that was Brotzman in 74. Interestingly, Brotzman also lost in 64 in the Goldwater sweep, which also led to the defeat of veteran Republican J. Edgar Chenoweth. Brotzman lost to Roy McVicker in 64, defeated McVicker in the 66 rematch.
Senators don't have quite the job security of House members, it takes a real upheaval, or a divisive primary, to knock somebody out of a House seat.  
[ Parent ]
Close
Great history there Bob, but you missed the most recent incumbent loss.

(The next most recent I was thinking of, other than the Haskell, Dominick and Allott turnovers, was Tim Wirth defeating Don Brotzman in 1974. It was a nailbiter of Florida proportions the next election, when Ed Scott almost took the seat back.)

Mike Strang lost his bid for re-election after one term representing the 3rd District. Ray Kogovsek declined to seek re-election in 1984, opening the way for Republican Strang to take the seat. Media darling Ben Nighthorse-Campbell challenged Strang in 1986 and won.

Strang, who lives in Carbondale, lost his son, Lathrop, a month ago. Lathrop Strang died after a 1,000-foot fall off a cliff while skiing the Laundry Chutes on Mount Sopris.

[ Parent ]
What I find fascinating
Is that no one jumps up to defend Musgrave. Say something mean about Doug Bruce, Bob Schaffer, or any of the CD-5 or CD-6 candidates and you will get an impassioned defense here of that person, and why they are a great candidate.

But MM - I don't think we've ever seen anything other than a tepid she's a Republican so we support her in her favor here.

Is she that disliked even on the Republican side? That does not bode well for her.

Tom Tancredo Interview

It is stunning to contemplate an era in which almost all
of rural Colorado (CD-3 and CD-4) is represented by Democrats.
The biggest number here?
36.

You can debate whether or not Markey really has the name ID to beat Musgrave, but the fact that Musgrave - as an incumbent - polls under 40 percent is huge. If that number is accurate, it has to be almost unprecedented in Colorado for an incumbent congressman/woman.

36 seems strange considering
40% said that she's doing a good or excellent job...

[ Parent ]
Two different numbers
You can easily lose 4% from people who think Musgrave's doing a "good" job but that we need a change in direction.

Also, the poll totals show that they didn't push uncommitted voters too hard.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
Pardon the senior moment
I think the most recent was when Ben Nighthorse Campbell defeated Mike Strang in the 1986 Congressional race. Campbell was then a Democrat.  can't think of anything more recent than that.
Yep
Sorry, didn't scroll down to see this addendum.

Puts the Musgrave contest in perspective, though. The last two Colorado members of Congress to be defeated were Strang in 1986 and Haskell in 1978. Both were in their first term. The last defeated incumbent with more than a single term was Don Brotzman in 1974 (and Peter Dominick, who lost a bid for his third term the same year).

In other words, it's been 22 years since an incumbent has been ousted, and 34 years since a multi-term incumbent has been denied re-election.

[ Parent ]
Spot on
A vested incumbent like Brotzman was only ousted because of A, watergate  and B, the fact that brain dead Republicans in the legislature shifted part of northwest Denver to the 2nd in a hopeless attempt to re-elect Mike McKevitt in 72. Wirth saw the opportunity and capitalized on it in 74, he had a house in that part of Denver.
Strang's defeat was unusual in that 1986 was no political earthquake, but he had enjoyed only two years of the incumbent;s power. It's not that voters worship incumbents per se, but when their staff runs down Aunt Millie's Social Security Check, they tend to to reward the incumbent.
[ Parent ]
The other lesson
in all this moldy history, as Bob noted above, were the two times in the early '70s when incumbents were defeated in primary challenges.

In both cases -- Craig Barnes taking the Democratic nomination for the 1st District from incumbent Byron Rogers in 1970, and Alan Merson ousting 4th District stalwart Wayne Aspinall in the 1972 Democratic primary -- the primary victor lost the seat to a challenger from the other party (Republicans in both cases, Mike McKevitt in Denver and Jim Johnson up north).

Both these primary victors came at the incumbent from their party's extreme -- the evolving Democratic party's anti-war and pro-environmentalist fault lines. Vicious intraparty rivalries sunk the eventual nominee.

McKevitt's win was a blip -- Denver was never going to stay reliably Republican, and Pat Schroeder and Diana DeGette regained and held the seat, respectively. Johnson ushered in an era of Republican dominance in the Fort Collins-Greeley-Eastern Plains district that continues to this day, with Hank Brown, Wayne Allard, Bob Schaffer and Marilyn Musgrave accepting the mantle when the incumbent retired or ran for (and won) an open Senate seat.

The lesson? If Lamborn loses in a primary, this will be the only chance Democrats have of winning the 5th because the District's GOP will fail to unite behind the primary winner. But, like Mike McKevitt, any Democrat who wins will only be holding the 5th for a single term while Republicans regroup and sort out their differences.

[ Parent ]
A couple of notes about the poll...
Look...I know I am the campaign manager and a lot of you are going to take what I say with a grain of salt...but I felt obligated to drop a note about this poll.

First...to be honest I never expected to be releasing polling numbers.  I have never, ever been involved with a congressional race where the challenger was up seven points in the initial head to head.  Someone here made a good point about these numbers NOT being the educated vote.  This number represents voters' responses BEFORE they were read anything about either candidate.

Second...polls are expensive and they are meant to help you craft campaign strategy.  A poll that was crafted to give us an unfair advantage would be absolutely useless to me as a tool in this race.  In fact, we did everything we could to pit the sample against Betsy - including polling a sample that was 40% Republican and only 29% Democratic.  And 400 is a pretty standard sample size for a congressional poll.  Also...we have excellent, reputable pollsters who make a living based on the accuracy of their numbers.  

I know some people aren't going to believe me but we had abolutely no incentive to spend a lot of money on a poll that did not give us an accurate representation of the situation here.

Pols is right...36% is a very important number here.  The other important number is a re-elect rate of 30%.  My experience has always been that you start running up red flags on an incumbent when the re-elect drops below 50%.  30% is astounding.

That all said, while it's nice to have a good poll and hopefully convince a few people that this race is winnable, it changes nothing when it comes to how hard we have to work to win.

So along those lines...any of you who are in Fort Collins and are interested in hearing Betsy give her second town hall on her economic plan (the first one was in Greeley last week), she will be at Boltz Junior High cafeteria, 720 Boltz Drive in  Fort Collins tonight at 5:30.

Thanks,

Anne

Thanks for the responses
Having not heard of the polling organization, I wasn't sure of their reputation.  If they're associated with the Obama campaign, though, they've been pretty darned good throughout this season.

It's always good to see bigger polls with lower MOEs (also better for creating cross-tabs), but, as you say, those are expensive.  I'm sure you'll get more polling attention in the near future from the big pollsters...

The poll numbers are very, very good news regardless.  Keep it up, and here's to hoping we can toss all of our biggest embarrassments out of Congress this year.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

[ Parent ]
I'm sure it breaks your heart, Anne
if this rosy scenario helps raise money for your candidate;-) I never accept leaked polls at face value unless they include all the interview questions and methodology.  If nothing else, it's a safe bet that your campaign wouldn't have released the numbers if they made you look bad.  
[ Parent ]
poll numbers
To me what is more significant is that Marilyn's own poll only has her up five points. After spending a fortune in 2002,2004 and 2006, having the use of franked mail and a huge effort this past year at remaking her image to only be up five points is not good.  Markey has spent little money and has a good team directing her campaign.  This could be very interesting.  

Bob is right to never accept these things at face value. What seems to be clear is that this race is going to be tight.

It was also to me interesting that Marilyn was not all over TV denouncing the California Supreme Court decision on Gay marriage. The old Marilyn would have been all over that one. Maybe her constituents liked the old Marilyn better than this new phonier version?

[ Parent ]
That last is a scary thought
Thank you for replacing yourself with a more rational version, at least for this topic.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
So you're not a total nimrod!
Who knew?

"It is hard enough to remember my opinions, without also remembering my reasons for them!" - Nietzsche  
[ Parent ]
I want to offer a note of thanks to Eric Eidsness
Many view him as taking the election away from angie. I disagree: I think he put it within reach by getting Republicans to peel away from MM.

Like methadone for a heroin addict, Eric allowed moderate republicans to seperate themselves from an utterly vile and disconnected theocrat that wasn't good for them.  

Now that they voted against MM it allows them to take the full step and vote for a Democrat.

Musgrave ready to be toppled! | 53 comments
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?



Advertise Here!
ads@coloradopols.com

Active Users
Currently 57 user(s) logged on.

Search




Advanced Search

Colorado Pols Network


Jeffco Pols
  More >

Denver Pols
  More >















RSS 2.0



Pols Gets Mobile: ColoradoPols.com/mobile/

Colorado Pols is on Twitter: twitter.com/coloradopols

Email Pols


How to Write a Diary That Will Make the Front Page



Terms of Use/Privacy Policy



Pols Posting Policies



The Pols "Mailbag"

Mailbag #1



Relevant Links

The Big Media Blog

Blog It Right

Blog For Growth

Blogometer

Colorado Capitol Journal

Colorado Center on Law and Policy

Colorado Democratic Party

Colorado Ethics Watch

Colorado Independent

Colorado Labor Blog

Colorado Veterans for America

Colorado Legislature

Colorado Lib

Colorado Libertarian Blog

Colorado Media Matters

Colorado Progressive Coalition

Colorado Republican Party

Colorado Secretary of State

Colorado Senate

Colorado Young Democrats

Commentary Today

Coyote Gulch

CU Democrats

Curious Stranger

Daily Kos

Dan Willis-Rumors

Dem Notes

Democracy for Colorado

Denver Politics

East Boulder County Politics

Ed Stein Ink

Election Neutrality Now

George in Denver

Great Education Colorado

Head First Colorado

The Hotline Political Network

Junction Daily Blog

Left in the West

Liberal and Loving It

Maintain Educational Standards in Colorado

Mount Virtus

MyDD

National Journal

On Call

Peak Dems

Political State Report

Progress Now

Prometheus

Project Vote Smart

Radio Free Denver

Senate Guru

Slapstick Politics

Steam Powered Opinions

Square State

Stygius

TalkLeft

The Thicket

The Bell Policy Center

The Hypothetical Wren

ThomasMC.com

Toilet Paper Online

TRACER Campaign Finance

View From a Height

Walter in Denver

Wash Park Prophet

Western Democrat



 
Colorado Pols is wholly owned by www.ColoradoPols.com, LLC
webmaster-at-coloradopols.com
Powered by: SoapBlox