Primaries: Who Will Win HD-8?

This one is really about who shows up on Tuesday

I lived in this district for  little time before moving back up to Boulder and it's changed a lot the last 5 years.  People I know there say Cindy is always out walking, haven't heard as much from Matt but see his signs everywhere.  Beth I hear described as the choice of the "old timers".  I wouldn't discount the impact Cindy's work with Denver Young Dems could have and her appeal to a lot of younger people (like 20-35) and the more urban parts where I don't see Beth drawing a following.  Will Cindy's young voters be enough?  Will be party regulars go to Beth?  Does Matt have the name i.d. to pull it off?  I think this is one that is going to be really close and comes down to who did better with mail in voting and who can go turn out a couple thousand people Tuesday

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by: CD2Watch @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 11:02:03 AM CDT

I wold like to see Lowery

but McCann 39, Bergles 37, Lowery 24.

And yes, that's just a wild guess.

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by: brio @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 21:44:49 PM CDT

I'm fairly confident Bergles wins this

Cindy might surprise, but I haven't seen the effort from Beth.  I know she has an important full time job, but because she doesn't match the northern part of the district and the leg work by the others will swamp her.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 21:52:20 PM CDT

I hope I am underestimating Cindy's campaign.

I agree she has worked her butt off.  Unfortunately, I never saw her articulating a compelling reason why people who recognized the name McCann should instead vote for her.  Matt bridged that gap with endorsements (Rosemary's in particular) but Cindy did not gain a similar advantage.

One thing is certain, if Beth wins she can think her lucky stars she had two opponents instead of one.

BTW, I think Cindy could have put together a compelling message, because I think her views best represent primary voters in the district.  I just don't think her campaign quite got it done.

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by: brio @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 15:25:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

any suggestions?

try some of those compelling messages out here....just for grins

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by: denver politico @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 23:12:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If I could come up with the pithy pitch,

I'd be doing it for a living.  But some of the raw material:

Lowery places solutions to problems over ideology (e.g., she supported Groff's education bill from last term, whereas Bergels hemmed and hawed about weakening the teacher union).

Lowery shares the values of district 8 Dems (e.g., has always opposed capital punishment, whereas McCann only "saw the light" in the days before the assembly; similarly, has long been an advocate for single-payer universal health coverage).

McCann's background gives her a skewed view of the criminal justice issues which she has made her siganture issue (for example, McCann did not support the Dem bill from the last session that would have required a D.A. to get a judge's approval before charging a 14 year old as an adult).

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by: brio @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 13:52:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A nailbiter

Every indication this one will be the nail biter of the entire state. We very well may not have a winner until the provisionals are counted and even then I would not be surprised if we need a recount.

The closest race I am aware of for a Colorado legislative seat is 11 votes. Wonder if that record will be broken?

Want my vote? Put in some time with your party first!

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by: Dan Willis @ Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 22:46:21 PM CDT

Do you expect

there to be a lot of provisionsals? The sheer number of new registrations suggests there will.

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by: RedGreen @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 16:45:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The problem with Provisionals

If a person votes on a Provisional Ballot in HD8 but outside their own precinct, the only races that will be counted are US Senate and CD1 so it will not matter how they vote in the HD race.

I have tried to make this very clear to all candidates and our PCP's and other activists in all of Denver so they can work to help get people to their correct precincts.

Want my vote? Put in some time with your party first!

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by: Dan Willis @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 17:39:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Statistical dead heat

This race is a statistical dead heat at the moment, so I feel fairly confident that it will come down to less than a 100 votes on Tuesday night.
My vote is for Cindy Lowery, she's energetic, very bright, the most progressive candidate in the race, and she & her volunteers are working very hard & very smart.  She's got a pretty sophisticated field program despite not having as much funding as the others, so she might pull a dark horse & surprise some people on Election Night.

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by: sister4justice @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 15:16:29 PM CDT

This race is a statistical dead heat at the moment

Is that based on polling you've seen?

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by: RedGreen @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 16:49:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dude/dudette!

..that's what I was thinking!  How can you have a "statistical dead heat" without statistics?

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by: Jambalaya @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 16:56:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If it's a solid hunch

it can still be a dead heat, but not a statistical one. (and it's dude)

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by: RedGreen @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 17:54:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

aaaiiiiiiight...dude it is

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by: Jambalaya @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 19:31:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That would be a Guesstical Dead Heat.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 18:23:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A Dead Heat in the Gut

Several over-the-counter medicines now available to treat that.

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by: RedGreen @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 18:32:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL! I like that one!

Want my vote? Put in some time with your party first!

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by: Dan Willis @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 17:43:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Money

As of the latest SoS reports:

Bergles: $34,000 raised, $15,000 on hand
Lowery: $22,000 raised, $1,500 on hand
McCann: $85,000 raised, $21,000 on hand

Given the McCann money advantage, I'm interested in hearing specifics on what makes this one a 'nailbiter'...people sound like they've seen polling, but in a statehouse primary that would surprise me.

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by: louis @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 09:14:36 AM CDT

McCann hasn't worked the doors or even the phones much

I live in McCann's precinct and she has not been to my door once.  I have had one volunteer come to my door.  Matches other anecdotal evidence.  

On a side note: I've seen McCann at one house party, where I didn't feel she had a command of the issues outside of justice.

Bergles and Lowery (especially lowery) have worked the ground.

Bergles and Cindy have both hit my door, matches the anecdotes (I heard stories about Cindy hitting some young voters door twice).  

Bergles has the important endorsements in the north part of the district.

That's what makes this close Money/name v. work/machine v. tonnes of work

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 12:28:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good and useful assessment...thanks!

Want my vote? Put in some time with your party first!

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by: Dan Willis @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 17:44:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]