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Obama Up 4, Udall Pulling Away In New Poll

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 08:34:43 AM MDT


Quinnipac's latest:

Obama leads 55 - 40 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back McCain 49 - 42 percent. White voters back McCain 51 - 44 percent as Hispanic voters go with Obama 68 - 26 percent. Obama and McCain are tied 48 - 48 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 back Obama 52 - 42 percent. Voters over 55 go 47 percent with McCain and 46 percent with Obama.

Obama will bring change, 46 percent of voters say, while 22 percent say McCain will bring change and 26 percent say neither candidate will bring change.

McCain's selection of Gov. Palin as a running mate is a good choice, voters say 55 - 38 percent, and Obama's selection of Sen. Biden is a good choice, voters say 52 - 32 percent.

But by a 49 - 42 percent margin, voters would rather see Biden as President. Women pick Biden 52 - 37 percent while men go 46 percent to Palin and 45 percent Biden.

The economy is the most important issue in the election, 51 percent of Colorado voters say. Obama better understands the economy, voters say 47 - 41 percent, while McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 63 - 29 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, the Democrat, leads Republican Robert Schaffer 48 - 40 percent, compared to a 44 - 44 percent tie July 24. [Pols emphasis]

"Two years ago when the Democrats picked Denver for their convention, one of the main reasons was the hope it would help them win Colorado, which is shaping up as a key state in the Electoral College. Sen. Obama has come from behind to take the lead there and it is a reasonable assumption that the convention has something to do with this," Brown said.

These are good numbers for Obama, certainly (although the tie among voters age 18-34 is a little strange), and it doesn't hurt that Schaffer may be starting to crater. If Udall blows out Schaffer, that could be a deciding factor in an Obama victory in November.
Colorado Pols :: Obama Up 4, Udall Pulling Away In New Poll
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Obama Up 4, Udall Pulling Away In New Poll | 78 comments
I'm not saying this to be a jerk
Everyone knows I'm an Obama supporter, and of course I love a poll that shows Obama up 4 here in CO. However...

The numbers in that poll on foreign policy are crazy. Nearly 70% say McCain better understands foreign policy.

That leads me to say something that I have been thinking about a lot, and came out earlier in the campaign, but hasn't been talked about much since:

If there is a terrorist/conventional enemy attack between now and the election, McCain wins in a landslide. I'm not saying that I think the GOP is praying for one, but I do think that it would completely destroy Obama's chances.

This is not because I think McCain would in fact do a better job handling the crisis, but most Americans would see it that way.

Thanks to the hard work of intelligence gatherers, law enforcement, and the military we haven't had another attack on our soil since 9/11. Here's hoping that it stays that way.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

I think
a large-scale attack is unlikely, but there are some signs that AQ has put the word out to uptick the attacks against US interests overseas.

The Jawa Report is a conservative site but has some pretty good inside info. on the intel community, and they have been talking lately of AQ's inability to even get their 9/11 anniversary video out.  Hopefully that's a good sign.

The way you put it wasn't jerkish in the least, and hopefully you feel better when I tell you that I have never heard anyone talk about wanting a terror attack because it would help the R's win an election.  Never.

That said, I agree with you, but as the data suggests:

...while McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 63 - 29 percent.

that if the election comes down to people's concerns over foreign policy that it would b e a landslide anyway.

With the economic upheaval, and Russia's return to the old school, the continuing threat of Islamic terror, and the massive implications of racial politics, this is truly the most interesting election in my adult life.

I have to think that this much discord on all those issues has to move us forward.

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  

[ Parent ]
I have never heard anyone talk about wanting a terror attack because it would help the R's win an election
I have. But I also have heard lefties pining for an economic meltdown because it would help D's win the election.

There are jackasses on both sides.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

[ Parent ]
Who can honestly say
that they would wish more hardship on this country for political gain?

I guess between Michael Moore and Ann Coulter lies America.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

[ Parent ]
Amen
Between Mr. Potato and the she-pundit with long blond hair.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

[ Parent ]
Looks like the meltdown is with us
whether we wished for it or not.    
[ Parent ]
You can talk about it without wishing it to happen

[ Parent ]
"I have never heard anyone talk about wanting a terror attack because it would help the R's win an election"
Osama Bin Laden would want one. He knows that the Bush/McCain/neocons are his best bet to keep the Al Qaeda recruiting machine going.
[ Parent ]
Riiiight.
It's Bush's fault for making them angry with us.

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
[ Parent ]
No
They'll always be angry at us - its' just Bushes fault for not getting rid of them. He's had all the time, money and resources available since 2001 to do it.  

Maybe Condi should have whispered in his ear and told him they were in Waziristan instead of Iraq, but she probably didn't have a clue either.

" Is there a way to delete your own comments? " bjwilson83

[ Parent ]
No
OBL is desperate to have someone who will keep the U.S. in Iraq as long as possible, and maybe even - if OBL is very lucky - get us into Iran as well. Invading Iraq was the greatest victory we ever gave Al Qaeda: instead of Afghanistan, where we were responding to being attacked ourselves, we were now the "infidel invader" of a "peaceful" country. (I'm not saying that's accurate, but it's the propaganda gift we gave OBL by taking our eyes off the prize and invading Iraq on puffed-up intelligence and without proper planning and marshaling of support.)

McCain is Bush II. And that's exactly what Osama Bin Laden is hoping for.

[ Parent ]
we ARE currently under a large-scale terrorist attack.
.
Our treasury is being looted.
Our economy is being destroyed.  
The nation is being hurt more by those who engineered this disaster than the Japanese or Germans ever could have in WW II.

Yup.
Engineered.
Not in the blatant way that the Cheney Task Force engineered the War against Iraq,
but far more subtly.  

You don't think of this looting as terrorism, because you aren't terrified, and neither are your neighbors.  Pity.
But the rapacious are bringing this former republic down as sure as if they had blown apart the electrical grid or the poisoned water supply or undone the agricultural productivity.  
.

[ Parent ]
"I'm not saying this to be a jerk"
I think it's funny how you are so proud of a 4% lead because we both know that Obama can't and will not do well in these up coming debates, which will thus swing the polls towards McCain. Obama has no backbone and it will become obvious when he studers his way through the questions with no clear answers. After that happens it will be clear that Obama would be the next Carter, because he is full of false promises.
[ Parent ]
This is what $11,000,000 wasted looks like
The more money these Club for Growth and NRSC thugs throw at Udall the better he does in the polls.

It just makes me sorry for all the ballot issue campaigns (to say nothing of businesses advertising actual products and services) who can't buy TV time because the market is so crowded.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

The poll number I think is off, is men wanting Palin over Biden.
I think that is a joke number. Men may have said it because men know that it won't happen.  Come on guys, would you really rather see Palin running the US over Biden?  

That doesn't even make sense.  I can not imagine the guy that wants to see that, except in a wet dream.

Tina Fey on the other hand...
n/t

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Men. What else is there to say? :) n/t


"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie
[ Parent ]
Men!
[ Parent ]
There's one thing you can say about Spitzer
The man loved prostitutes.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Hehehehe.
Nice. :)

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie
[ Parent ]
That's the number out of the survey that surprised me most
You are out of your partisan mind if you can say with a straight face that Palin would make a better Pres than Biden.  Paris Hilton would make a better Pres than Palin.  And there are a lot better suited than Biden, but Palin is not one, not by a long shot.    
[ Parent ]
I know Sarah Palin Congressman
I worked with Sarah Palin, and you, sir, are no Sarah Palin.

Sorry, I couldn't resist. :)

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

[ Parent ]
You are right
Dan Quayle, btw, another example of someone sadly more qualified to run the country than Palin.  
[ Parent ]
consistent
I could be wrong but my impression is that the preference of men for Palin over Biden is a phenomenon we're seeing all over the country. She shored up support with GOP men and that's about it.  
[ Parent ]
Some of our local gun hawks
 have told me they are for Palin just because she is pro-gun. Nothing else matters to some of them.
[ Parent ]
That's
more than half of it for me.

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
[ Parent ]
Wow
I am surprised, LB. So, does that mean that you think there is a greater than 50% chance you'll lose your arsenal if Obama is elected?

For me the only way it could be more than half is if a candidate was campaigning strongly to restrict ownership of ALL guns.

[ Parent ]
Well,
I think anything drastic he'd try to do would be tied up in the courts until he was out of office.  One man's arsenal is another man's home security system.  

He has asked for a ban on handguns, and on CCW permits. Counterproductive in my eyes, and I wasn't going to vote for him anyway.  It's enough to get me energized to give more money to the NRA-ILA, though.

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  

[ Parent ]
Hey, you're lying
But that's no surprise.  

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."
[ Parent ]
Whatever you say
"Bizarro-Libertad".

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
[ Parent ]
Name-calling always makes lies true
Obama never called for a handgun ban. You know you're lying. Grow up and take a little responsibility for what you say.

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."
[ Parent ]
Ok, BL

That's a clear example of Obama supporting a handgun ban.

Here's another:



"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  

[ Parent ]
Hello?
Chirp.....Chirp.....

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
[ Parent ]
Wow, it really drives you nuts when you're ignored
In the spirit of civility, I watched your videos.

His position in this campaign is clear. Places which have had problems with gun violence should be able to regulate them. Other places that use them for hunting and don't have problems should be able to keep them. The first video makes that quite clear.

The second video is also clear enough: in 1996 he had a different position. He's since changed his mind.

If you actually believe what you're saying, you're living in the past, and I would like to welcome you to the present. Otherwise, you're lying.

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."

[ Parent ]
just to be clear...
You are demonstrably incorrect - Obama has in fact supported handgun ban(s) and yet I'm somehow "lying".

Good luck with that logic.

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  

[ Parent ]
Regulation
His position in this campaign is clear. Places which have had problems with gun violence should be able to regulate them.

How much gun violence is perpetrated by legal gun owners?

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  

[ Parent ]
Depends on the state
In states with no gun laws--basically all of it.

In states with lots of gun laws--basically none of it.

One of the tools of gun laws is to add an automatic 5 year sentance on an easy to prove charge.  Makes it easier to get convictions and good pleas.

[ Parent ]
THanks Danny
As soon as I hit "post" I was regretting even interacting with sxp.  

I agree on the additional sentencing possibilities, but not at the cost of being able to have a gun in your hous or concealed on your person in a dangerous city like Chicago or D.C.

Obama voted against allowing retired military and law enforcement carry concealed in IL.

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  

[ Parent ]
You know I am more conservative on this issue than Obama
I generally support concealed carry (But I want active target (shoot/don't shoot) training, better crim/crazy database and more mental health treatment).

As to home defense, No scarier sound than a 12 guage shell being pumped into the chamber.  Handguns are suboptimal-cost too much, not as intimidating, not as " accurate", pass through walls, etc.  Despite handguns being suboptimal for home defense, I generally oppose any restrictions on ownership by non crazy law abiding folks.  I'm more interested in controlling the point of sale (I'm looking at you strawman purchasers and gun shows)

However, its a secondary issue for me.

[ Parent ]
Danny
ever thought about running for office?

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Lost an election in the 3rd grade
more of a policy guy ever since.  I'm the kind of guy that people either love or hate.

I'd love a policy job with a advocacy group think tank or elected official.

ALthough I am a good teacher and can handle breaking big things into small bites which helps with messaging, policy fits my mad scientist personality better.

[ Parent ]
Mary Ann, Ginger or Biden?

Ginger!

[ Parent ]
Biden = Thurston Howell III

[ Parent ]
Bush = Gilligan


" Is there a way to delete your own comments? " bjwilson83
[ Parent ]
Hehehe


"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
[ Parent ]
Inside the Quinnipac Poll
http://steampoweredopinions.bl...

Good news for Obama in the latest Quinnipac Poll, he's up 49 to 45 after being down 47-46 one month ago.

Beyond those numbers though we see that Obama is in a strong position to widen his lead in the coming weeks. In the new Quinnipac Poll we see that Obama has moved from 86% Dem support in August to 91% today. That's critically important. The general consensus is that for a Democrat to win statewide in Colorado he needs about 90% support from Dems, 60% support from Independents and 14% from Republicans.

What about those independents? Well Obama is only at 51% but McCain is languishing at 40% with 7% still undecided. Even a highly uinlikely 50-50 split of those voters leaves McCain buried with independents.

As for Republicans McCain is at 89% and Obama only at 7%. Still I think this poll shows Obama is in a very strong position now here in Colorado.  

Polls?
Is there really a 10 percent swing portion of the electorate, that is changing who they will vote for day-to-day according to the Gallup Tracking Poll....or is it just that they found a new group they found to poll that day?  70% of all statistics are made up you know.  
[ Parent ]
It would be more accurate
to say 70 percent of statistics are made up, with a plus or minus 5 percent margin of error.
[ Parent ]
Lots of people have no idea why they're voting
so the idea they'll swing wildly from one candidate to another with no good reason is not completely out of the question.

Still, it is pretty strange that the tracking polls change so much. The whole point of tracking polls is to cancel out fluctuations.

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."

[ Parent ]
McCain's Colorado Campaign
Shocker
EPC likes McCain.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Misleading to say 'Udall pulling away'
Udall's lead has been very steady over the last 3+ months.

Realclearpolitics shows 8 polls since June --- ranging from a tie to Udall +9.  If you throw out the outliers on either end you have 6 polls showing Udall leading by an average of 7%.

I think Udall's chances are better than indicated in the current Big Line.

add "in this poll"
The last Q-poll was dead even, but it was two months ago. Assuming their methodology is consistent, it's a swing that is way outside the margin of error.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

"Some of the people that wanted to engage me in conversation appeared to have been the losers in the 'Are you smarter than Michele Bachmann contest?'." --Rep. Barney Frank

[ Parent ]
Sweet, but ...
still too many weeks before the vote to peak. Indy voters will hold their vote until late October. The key is to peak during the period swing voters are hitting the polls.
Bravo.
Secret handshake upcoming...

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
[ Parent ]
If only...
If only Colorado voters would realize where Mark Udall allegiance is! His allegiance is to union bosses and funding unions and not the people of Colorado. Mark Udall hopes to take away the right to vote from workers who are trying to decide whether or not to form a union. Isn't our country founded on the principal of the private vote??? If yes, then why is Mark Udall trying to do away with it? Maybe, just maybe, because unions help fund his campaigns?!
I agree
Seriously. Colorado, wake up and smell the TRUTH! The truth of the matter is that if Mark Udall is elected to the US Senate in November, the Employee Free Choice Act is going to pass and tragically hurt Colorado workers and their freedoms.  
[ Parent ]
To be blunt - BFD
In the grand scheme of things the EFCA is small potatoes. We're fighting two hot wars plus terrorism, the economic system is on critical life support and no one knows how to cure it, the economy is teetering on the edge of recession, healthcare is devastating millions of families, and we've got the earth on boil as we burn every last hydrocarbon we can find.

And on top of that, unions are in a shrinking part of the economy. Regardless of what assistance they get from new laws, they're in a world of hurt.

So, who cares if this passes. Outside of union leadership and some anti-union zealots - no one. And Udall's position on this issue is irrelevant to 98% of the voters in this state.

My recommendations in the 2010 primary?

[ Parent ]
Considering
Colorado is such an island away from the sea of unions elsewhere in the United States, it's amazing to me how much anti-union sentiment exists here (teachers unions notwithstanding.)

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Oh, the tragedy!!!
Methinks thou art an employer representative poseur.

The humanity!!! Elect Bob Schaffer: he'll do for Colorado workers what he does for those in the Northern Marianas!

Um... never mind.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm....
There were an uncharacteristic amount of empty orange seats for Obama's rally.

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
Still 50% more than McCain Palin a week ago in the same venue.

[ Parent ]
I don't think so.
From my linked article...

"You all know that you hold this election in your hands," Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat who said he worked on ethics legislation with Obama, told a crowd of about 6,000 cheering Obama fans in the arena next to Lambeau Field. "We just barely won this state for Al Gore in 2000 and we just barely won this state for John Kerry in 2004."

The numbers in Wisconsin and Minnesota are getting close enough that the Obama campaign closed its 11 campaign offices in North Dakota and moved the 50 staffers there to these two states.

Just a week ago, John McCain and his vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin - who can bring out crowds the way Obama can - appeared in this same stadium, Resch Center, to a crowd of 10,000 fans. There were an uncharacteristic amount of empty orange seats for Obama's rally.



"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  
[ Parent ]
As someone who works, I know why that is
Palin's/McCain's rally was at night, Obama's was in the middle of the day.

Plus, you got a two-fer at the Palin/McCain rally, because Palin apparently can't be trusted by McCain to go anywhere on her own.

Either that, or McCain can't be trusted to draw crowds of 1,000 let alone 6,000.

[ Parent ]
???
Obama's rally in CO was in the middle of the day.

What, lefties in Wisconsin HAVE JOBS?

:)

"Kevin and I will keep them out somehow -- even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"  

[ Parent ]
They had jobs...
they had solid retirement accounts, they had Brett Favre.  All gone now...

" Is there a way to delete your own comments? " bjwilson83
[ Parent ]
"26 percent say neither candidate will bring change. "
.
But don't get your hopes up, Ron Paul.  

These folks either stay home in frustration,
or vote for "the lesser of 2 evils."
.

26% could change the world, and don't have to wait for a secular messiah to do it.  

But folks would rather waste their vote voting for a major party candidate because he has a chance of winning
than "waste" it voting for a 3rd party candidate who really represents their values, and who offers a chance of real change.  

As long as we keep electing only candidates from the two branches of the corporatist party,
the corporatists will allow the illusion of change.  
And for most folks, that's enough.
.
.

And poll #2: PPP O51 - M44
PPP's new poll shows Obama up 51-44, with many crosstabs similar to the Q-poll.

PDF here.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

That seems way too high
Seriously, these polls are all over the map.
[ Parent ]
We can take away the basics...
Obama's lead in CO has grown to somewhat significant margins.  These two polls update some of McCain's better poll numbers for the state with numbers that don't look so good for him.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878
[ Parent ]
Very interesting
47% said McCain's picking Palin made them less likely to vote for him.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)
[ Parent ]
Looks like it "on the street" too
My two school-aged kids and I are knocking on doors every Sunday afternoon for Obama and Udall through the election.   In the mostly lower-to-midlevel middle class neighborhoods we've walked, almost every voter we've talked to (with the exception of two households) are either for or leaning for Obama.  Very few knew about Udall, but most say they're voting a Dem ticket because they're sick of the GOP.   Looks like all those annoying Club for Growth ads aren't resonating with these folks.  So I'm cautiously optimistic about their chances, barring some kind of horrible October surprise.  
Don't take the tie among 18-34 voters too seriously.
Published margins of error apply only to the full sample.  If you have 600 overall at, say, plus or minus 5 percent, you may only have 150 in the 18-34 category. The margin of error in that (or any other) subgroup could be much higher. So basically, take all categorical breaks with a grain of salt because of the risk of sample error.
Yep
I think that's why polls of "white Democratic women" seem to flip 25 points every week, for example. There are so few of them in any given poll that the margin of error is ridiculously high. If only more people reporting on polling understood it.

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."
[ Parent ]
Get ready to rumble
Colorado going BLUE is psychologically crushing to the Repubs.  This is a "line in the sand" state for Republicans.  Aggressive Dems. held a boffo convention in town and are feeling confident about their state organization.  Lots of Obama organizing has already occurred at the county and precinct level.  Has McCain already started his ground game in the state or is he too late like too many of his other decisions?

Schafer is running a better campaign than Beauprez but that isn't saying much.  I believe he came out against prop. 48 but can't make up any ground with the anti-criminalization of women's health care crowd.  He can't win with just the fundie vote.

Are you ready for a Blue Wave?

Udall almost for sure
and Markey in striking distance!

And replace the SoS and it's gonna be mightly lonely for Mike and Doug having a few beers with the boys.  Uh, boy.

"Collective fear stimulates herd instinct and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd." -Bertrand Russell

[ Parent ]
You wish it were so, but it's not
and it's spelled s-t-u-t-t-e-r

"[McInnis] already appeals to those of us who have half a brain..."  ChenWui
Obama Up 4, Udall Pulling Away In New Poll | 78 comments
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