Wash. Post: Udall 54, Schaffer 40

Schaffer's paying for his radicalism on social issues

Bill Armstrong and Jim Dobson have destroyed the Colorado GOP.

Yes, I know I'm repeating myself.

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by: Another skeptic @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:49:13 AM CDT

You're so radical

you make them look like moderates, so I don't know why you're complaining.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:59:17 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not so much radical as just plain wing nutty. :)

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie

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by: Middle of the Road @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:32:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

He also forgot to mention

the person who has likely done the most damage to the Colorado GOP: Dead Weight Dick Wadhams.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:40:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I cannot WAIT to see what happens Dickie Boy

when Schaffer loses. That's two in a row. The Republican Party does not reward losers.  

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie

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by: Middle of the Road @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:01:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

President George W. Bush says "hi" n/t

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."

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by: sxp151 @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:08:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

current job approval polls notwithstanding

getting elected as a two-term president of the United States is not what I would call the characteristic of a loser. Say what you want about Bush, but he is definitely a winner--electorally anyway.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:30:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

From a certain point of view

but on the other hand, he spent most of his life as a huge loser and kept getting second chances from the Republican Party. Keep helping people out, even people who might have screwed up, and even the worst of them can eventually succeed (that's why I support welfare programs and such, and not just for rich white people either).

Same with Richard Nixon. Loser, loser, loser. The Democrats never would have let him run in 1968.

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."

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by: sxp151 @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:34:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Take away the electoral successes

and I can't argue with you at all. Both presidents were defined by their failures, rather than their (few) successes.

But really, the electoral success is all that matters to the party, and what they do with it is up to them in the end.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:40:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, definitely a thief.

As you all know, I'd be the LAST to call him a winner, in any respect!

"I can tolerate chaos, I'm just not sure chaos can tolerate me" Dylan

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by: Sir Robin @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 18:15:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Do you see any way they keep him as state Chair?

I mean, I'm all for Dick staying in the chairman's seat. Wadhams has done wonders for the Colorado Democrats, but if I was (still) a Republican, I would be starting petitions, making phone calls, and rallying support for Wadhams to resign.

His micromanagement of the Senate race, ignoring many of the other, closer, statewide races has got to be one of the most idiotic political blunders I've ever seen. But that's what happens when you try to be campaign manager and state party Chairman at the same time.

What's even worse for Republicans is that when Schaffer gets trounced in the Senate race on November 4th, it will have a direct effect on McCain's chances of carrying Colorado. No wonder Dick wants to go negative, it's all he's got left.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:11:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You know, that's a good question, redstateblues.

I've been wondering that myself and honestly, I think they'll can his ass if Schaffer loses.

He has neglected his duties as chair and failed abysmally in reviving the state party. He hasn't been paying attention to the state races at all and if Republicans don't make significant gains in that area and Obama and Udall both win their races, I think his career in Colorado is over.  

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie

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by: Middle of the Road @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:51:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If they're smart

and they want to win again, they will. Time to start looking towards the Governor's race for them, though. A resurgent Colorado GOP starts and ends with the Gubernatorial seat.

Unfortunately for them, right now they have nobody on the bench who stands a chance.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:55:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Can you imagine if you or I ran a business the way

Wadhams has run the Party? Or that we did as half-assed a job as an employee as he has? We'd be gone in a New York minute.

I think the GOP has several problems right now and a big one that is being overlooked is (if this happens) them losing the State House and State Senate...again. That would be 3 elections in a row where they have failed to take back one of the chambers and that's where their efforts should be starting, on a very local level.  

"The only way you could be worse is if you were Wade Norris." Ralphie

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by: Middle of the Road @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:00:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Absolutely

Great point on the business analogy, because I often try to imagine if that was true. Wadhams would have been fired months ago if that was the case.

It's not like Pat Waak has done that great of a job on the other end, but she hasn't needed to. Wadhams is screwing up so bad he makes he look brilliant by comparison.

BTW, if politics was a business, they'd be broke based purely on their advertising budget. :)

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:03:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I disagree on Pat

I think she has done a superb job. Why? Can you point at anything in Colorado that we Dems are not executing superbly on? Can you point at any significant tiff between Dems?

It is very difficult to do that job so well it looks effortless.

My recommendations in the 2010 primary?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:16:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe I was a little hard on Pat

but my point still stands. By comparison to Wadhams, Waak's job looks effortless.

It also helps when you have two excellent presidential candidates (Hillary and Obama) to make a strong top of the ticket. The excitement surrounding the caucuses here, along with the DNC being in Denver, made Pat's job a hell of a lot easier.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:28:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I wish Pat was a better fundraiser

But in general I am happy with her.  The state party needs to be strengthened so it can help the county parties which are decidedly mixed effectiveness.

Stregthening the state party will take money and learning how to use free labor better.

I hope after this election the CDP is able to coopt some of the Obama organization to build a long term infrastructure.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:31:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I hope

all the state chairs across the country start using the Obama organizational structure that already exists in their states.

Thanks to the 50 state strategy, they might be able to use what's left over after the campaign ends to help get Dems elected in positions all across the country (state and federal.)

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:37:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree, and also think

that the existing 50 state infrastructure should stay in place to implement the Obama plan on the local level.

"I can tolerate chaos, I'm just not sure chaos can tolerate me" Dylan

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by: Sir Robin @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 18:27:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What's even worse with Wadhams

is that he turns everyone around him into a jerk.  Remember when the usually pleasant Rep. May
refused to go to a dinner at the Governor's mansion because of a resolution.  He got a little huffy, new to him, right after he started working with the terminally huffy Dick Wad.  Hell of a coincidence.

In the meantime he can keep shoving people through the right side of a ship that's sinking.  Great for Dems!

"Don't go all "Ralphie" on me now: Just let it go." - Steve Harvey

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by: droll @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:34:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Another golden moment

Agreeing with AS on the poor prospects of Colorado Republicans.  Embracing Dobson was like an athlete taking steroids.  Good results early but permanent damage to the body.  The fundies have already maxed out their base and the rest of the population is tired of extremist social positions.  Amendment 48 is the lost cause of the clueless.

This poll should probably be taken with a grain of salt of course but it does point out the lack of movement that 15 million in negative advertising has produced.  Schaffer can't ride the "he's a liberal" slogan into office this time.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:44:30 AM CDT

From the Denver Post website

Two polls released today show Democrat Mark Udall with a double-digit lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in the race for Colorado's open U.S. Senate seat.

A washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal poll showed Udall with a 14-point lead (54 percent to 40 percent), while a Suffolk University poll showed the Democrat with an 11-point edge (45 percent to 34 percent).

The washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal poll was conducted by Quinnipiac University Oct. 3-7. It surveyed 997 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
The Suffolk University poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Oct. 10-13 and had a 4 percent margin of error.

A Denver Post poll of 625 likely voters conducted Sept. 29 through Oct. 1 showed Udall with a five-point edge.

Nice.

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by: Progressive Promoter @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:08:53 PM CDT

Lets say this is it

So 54:40 becomes on election day 57:43 (or better). And Obama pulls similiar numbers.

In this case Colorado won't be viewed as a swing state any more, it will be viewed as Democratic. Both statewide races going by that much is a gigantic message.

Here's where it gets very scare for the Republicans here. If the party stays in control of the fringe, then they are headed for permanent minority status. And that is the most likely outcome.

Interesting times...

My recommendations in the 2010 primary?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:10:45 PM CDT

They need

to get some moderate voices. Go back to the tradition of Hank Brown.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:13:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

or Joel Hefley

Conservative to the core but hardly extremists.

This is where the obsession with criminalizing women and demonizing non-whites is really alienating voters.

Contrary to all the negative ads, Udall or Salazar are hardly progressive extremists.  I was going to hold my nose and vote for Udall but after seeing him at a meet and greet, I'm not nearly as critical of him as I was.  He looks steady and reasonable.  After eight years of supporting Bush stupidity, it is going to be a while before anyone really believes they have a better plan for the country.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:32:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately

for the moderate Republicans in this state, there are too few of them within the machinery of the party to have any effect on the candidate nominating process.

The moderates are attacked, and the Lamborns and Musgraves of the world (not to mention people like Bob Lane, who used the fact that his opponent's husband is a Rabbi as an attack) are treated to electoral success--historically, if not in this election.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:37:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And they will continue to do so

Because each of the existing office holders can win their own district by being way out on the right. And most of them will put retaining their seat over the party as a whole taking back the state.

My recommendations in the 2010 primary?

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 14:19:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Udall is a long way politically from the Salazars.

But, I think the Salazars and Ritter have together broken the knee jerk opposition to Democrats simply because they are Democrats.

As for the GOP, will the lesson be that McCain is so moderate that he alienated the base and has had negative coattails, or that Schaffer was too conservative so that moderation is needed.

Blogosphere Dems have been arguing for a long time that clear progressive stances are actually popular with voters compared to milquetoast moderates.  But, it isn't clear that the GOP has the same problems.

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by: ohwilleke @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:10:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

McCain hasn't run as a moderate this year

He's been talking up his positions on the war, and on the economy he's got Bush's people surrounding him. He gave up on his "bipartisanship" stunts in 2006 in order to win the Republican nomination, and has spent so much time worrying about the base that he hasn't bothered appealing to independents in any meaningful (policy) way.

That's the lesson the GOP should learn from McCain's inevitable staggering defeat. Instead, they'll learn the same lesson they learned from Dole's defeat in 1996: they weren't nasty enough.  

"I am B.J. Wilson, and I am a troll."

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by: sxp151 @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:13:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

incomprehensible numbers

While Obama and Udall have had the edge in their races in CO for some time now, I never thought that I'd see them with leads of 10 and 14 pts...

Wow.

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by: mr science @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:30:21 PM CDT

Wow. What an implosion.

I can't say that much of anything terribly game changing has been happening on the ground here in Colorado, so I can only assume that this is mostly a generalized flight to the Democrats in hard economic times.

The only notable "real world" event that has hit recently was Udall's decision to side with Mugrave in opposing the bailout bill.

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by: ohwilleke @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:06:17 PM CDT

On "American Experience"

a few nights ago the show was on Ronald Reagan.

I can't remember who said it, but they said that during times of economic growth the middle class tends to be conservative because they think they can go a little bit upwards and get rich. During times of economic bust, they tend be liberal because they see the lower middle class and working class struggling, and they say, "Hey that could be me soon."

It's a natural political shift that has occurred time and time again in politics.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:11:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Udall's decision to side with Musgrave?

...I thought he had decided to side with John Salazar on that bill.

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by: Jambalaya @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 19:31:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]