McCain giving up on Colorado

Why go to Pennsylvannia: a theory

the kinds of attacks that he is going to use, won't work in Colorado, because Colorado turns on educated suburban moderates.

He is going to focus on Pennsylvania because he wants to go hard negative and take a page from Nixon's tactics.

I just hope McCain can look himself in the mirror in a month.  Hate to see an old warrior fade away in rage and shame.  

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 22:18:08 PM CDT

I've heard that some internal Dem Party polls

show a bigger lead for Obama and some other Dem candidates here than the public polls but you hear a lot of things.  

According to RealClear, Obama's lead in PA is an average of 11.5 in several polls through the 19th, 6 points higher than what their poll average says Obama is doing here. How much more negative can they go in PA than they already have?  

Are they now down to counting on a boat load of racism and figuring there is more of it to mine in PA, particularly considering the difference in age demographics?  That would fit in with your theory, Danny.

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by: BlueCat @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 23:55:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Philly has a bad history with race

there is a kind of politics that won't work in CO that might work in PA.  That is my fear.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 00:27:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

2 points

1. McCain's campaign has barely had a presence in the state outside of TV ads. They apparently never bothered to assemble a field operation.

http://steampoweredopinions.bl...

2. If McCain is writing off Colorado then Bob Schaffer is really in trouble.

http://steampoweredopinions.bl...

Danny - I like your theory and think you may be on the right path.  

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by: Steve Balboni @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 22:38:29 PM CDT

As far as Colorado goes...

...I'll believe it if I don't see any more activity here for the next week. But I'm still going to work like hell for the next two.  

Furthermore, I'm looking at the electoral projection sites right now.  Pennsylvania is at least as blue on these maps as Colorado, if not bluer for the Presidential race.   Maybe he's hoping for a hateful kind of attack, but with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some other smaller cities, how can he hope to overcome that?  

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by: CO Democrat @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 22:48:53 PM CDT

If you can't win the middle

bring in from the far.  

This blog is your blog, this blog is my blog

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by: sufimarie @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 22:58:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe.

But if there is high turnout in the aforementioned areas, then McCain can't win PA.  

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by: CO Democrat @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 23:08:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

More here

more details here at CNN. Whats really interesting is this:

This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and "most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado."

Campaign manager Rick Davis is among the dissenters, believing the state remains within reach, several sources in and close to the McCain campaign say.

This looks like a repeat of the NRSC operations where they're sort-of in, then out, then in, then... Farting around and going back and forth is the dumbest decision of all.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 22:57:21 PM CDT

confirmation

Thanks for posting that David, confirmation that McCain just never bothered to put together a field/gotv operation in the state.  

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by: Steve Balboni @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 23:08:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't think this reflects indecision

Rather it reflects a dawning awareness within the campaign that McCain's map is looking pretty bleak.

And, frankly, Obama's campaign here in Colorado isn't just superior, it's overwhelming.  They're talking about opening an office in Gilpin County for a few days around the election.  Yes - they've got the resources to go after a county with a total of 5000 people.

This kind of report gives me hope - at least some of the GOP isn't living in a fantasy land.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 09:48:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pennsylvania would have made sense

But that was before Obama started looking more and more likely to win Florida.

It still makes sense, but there are an awful lot of variables that have to occur for McCain winning Pennsylvania to matter. I'm looking at the scenarios now, and it requires McCain to rebound in many of the Bush states. If he could somehow turn it around in PA, FL, and OH, he could tilt the election back in his favor.

The problem is that he can't just win there. He has to take either Virginia or Missouri and Nevada too. He's playing defense all over the place because Obama is outspending him.

The advantage still clearly lies with Obama, but it's a bold move.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 23:52:22 PM CDT

McCain camp pushes back on report they're losing hope in CO

John McCain's campaign tonight sought to tamp down a report by CNN's John King that they're looking for a path to victory that doesn't include Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado -- all states won by President Bush in 2004.

As King noted, many observers, including Republicans, have long been skeptical of McCain's prospects in New Mexico and Iowa.  But Colorado was considered as something of a must-win for McCain to have any chance of winning the presidency.

Two senior aides didn't deny that Colorado appeared challenging, but pointed to the two key indicators of any campaign's intent, time and money, to make the case that they were still holding out hopethere.

"We didn't send Gov. Palin there for no reason," said one, a reference to the vice presidential nominee's three rallies across the state today.

Another aide pointed out that the campaign and RNC's independent expenditure committee were both still on the airwaves there

"The combined reported spending of the RNC IE and the campaign is very similar, we trail by very small margins (around $500,000) ."

But McCain aides avoided making firm commitments about Colorado, careful to avoid portraying any state as a must-win.

The campaign believes that there are different formulas to get to 270,  not all of which include Colorado.  But without it, as King writes, McCain must not only hold onto a number of precarious red states such as Virginia, Nevada and Florida, but also bring a major blue state such as Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes over.   McCain aides have also held out hope that they could lose Pennsylvania but still win with the combination of Minnesota and Wisconsin, 20 total electoral votes, but public polls in both states show McCain down by double-digits.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 00:37:46 AM CDT

Now who's drinking the kool-aid?

McCain aides have also held out hope that they could lose Pennsylvania but still win with the combination of Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Minnesota and Wisconsin? Are to kidding me? Norm Coleman denounced the Robo-calls for a reason. Stick to trying to overcome 6-7 point deficits in 4 of the 7 states you need to win.

And by the way, where was this strategy shift two weeks ago? With 14 days left they may have waited too long to repair the damage.

If someone could raise $75 Million or so for pro-McCain and anti-Obama ads in 10 states or so, I think he'd REALLY appreciate it.

"I'll take incompetence over a business model incentivised to kill me any day." -- DtR(H)

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 00:51:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

NEPA

I grew up in north east PA, near Scranton and i really worry about the Bradley effect in that area. Obama did a lot of good in terms of winning PA by picking Biden- I just hope its enough. But with Rick Davis saying they are looking at reminding voters about Rev Wright, it looks like this is where they are heading, and it just might work in central and north east PA.

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by: bluehotmama @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 00:45:15 AM CDT

Think you're spot on

Take a look at the states the McCain camp is retreating to -- as Danny points out, they are virtually the only formerly Red states left where appeals to racism might still work.

Does the Republican Party think it will survive this strategy with a shred of dignity left? Before they know it, we're going to be a minority-majority nation, and the bitter taste of this campaign will still linger.

It's a suicidal strategy -- even if they do eke out a victory in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, they've lost the future by a wide margin.

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 01:10:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't think it will work

Look at George Allen, with the macaca statement and rebel flag business he clearly was viewed as a closet racist. And he lost Virginia!

I don't think racism helps more than it hurts nowadays. People may discriminate, but most don't want to see discrimination in their candidates.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 02:08:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

True.

But he BARELY lost to be sure.  The Macacca moment hurt him very badly, but it still wasn't a blowout, and it could have easily not even been a victory as close as it was.  And that's what gives me cause for pause.  

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by: CO Democrat @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 07:23:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Didn't he go from 20 points up though?

It was a gigantic change in his numbers.

Tom Tancredo Interview

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 10:50:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

In the end IIRC

The Webb Allen race was decided by approx 8,000 votes.

" And there are no Christian terrorists."

The Beej, circa 8/26/2010

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by: Fidel's dirt nap @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 16:11:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pennsylvania's racist

but not THAT racist. It's a Democratic state. Even Philadelphia, where the mayoral campaign a few years ago was more a white vs. black race than a Republican vs. Democratic race, has mostly gotten over that sort of thing.

I really wish Obama would stop focusing on it so much. His lead is in double digits in a state that's voted Democratic for 20 years. By any reasonable definition, it's not a swing state this year.

Bring back S[redacted]e H[redacted]y!

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by: sxp151 @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 11:12:16 AM CDT

It can be pretty bad

There are large sections of the state that are either in Appalachia or might as well be remote colonies of Appalachia.  Philly is the least of the problems with racism in PA.

"I have come to the conclusion that the making of laws is like the making of sausages-the less you know about the process the more you respect the result."  -- Anonymous IL State Rep. circa 1878

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 11:27:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

All right, forget Pennsylvania

I just found out Philadelphia's favorite right-wing extremist, Michael Smerconish, is voting for Obama.

The election in that state is Over, with a capital "O."

Bring back S[redacted]e H[redacted]y!

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by: sxp151 @ Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 14:48:38 PM CDT