According to a recent poll by Republican firm Magellan Strategies, Republican challenger Ryan Frazier leads Democrat incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter 40-39, with 11% undecided (MOE +/- 3.4%).
While the Frazier campaign certainly wants to trumpet this poll as a sign that he can defeat Perlmutter, we don't see it yet. This is the first public poll on this matchup, and Frazier doesn't actually do better than generic matchup polls between Republican and Democratic candidates. Since neither campaign has started heavy TV advertising, this poll is essentially a "generic R vs. D" poll.
The real problem for Frazier is that there's no reason to think he can expand on this. As of the last FEC reporting period, Perlmutter had a million dollars more cash on hand than Frazier; while that deficit could be made up somewhat by the NRCC, since CD-7 has never made it to the top of the pickup list, there's no reason to think the NRCC would spend any real money here when they have better odds in CD-4 with Cory Gardner.
According to the Cook Political Report, CD-7 is a "Likely Democrat" district, and President Obama won the district by 18 points in 2008. Frazier is going to need a lot more than this poll to convince national Republicans to toss real money into CD-7; barring that decision, he's got nowhere to go but down. There are three potentially vulnerable Democrats in Colorado (Perlmutter, Rep. John Salazar and Rep. Betsy Markey), and it's extremely unlikely that all three will lose their bid for re-election. Perlmutter has to be considered the safest of the three, if nothing else because he is in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage.
UPDATE (2:12 p.m.): That didn't take long. Frazier's campaign website has already been fixed so that the press release with the FOP endorsement is now gone.
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Yesterday Democrat Ed Perlmutter's campaign sent out a press release (full release after the jump) noting that he had received the unanimous endorsement of the Colorado Fraternal Order of Police (FOP). What makes this newsworthy, you say? Well, the fact that Republican CD-7 challenger Ryan Frazieralsoclaims to have been endorsed by the FOP.
The Board of Directors for the Fraternal Order of Police, Lodge 49 of the Aurora Police Department today announced their unanimous decision to endorse Ryan Frazier's candidacy for the 7th Congressional District of Colorado. Frazier earned the endorsement for his leadership role as an Aurora City Councilman and his dedication to public safety.
So how did the Colorado FOP "unanimously" endorse Perlmutter while the Aurora FOP "unanimously" endorse Frazier? Apparently the Aurora FOP isn't actually permitted to offer an endorsement of its own, and the only FOP endorsement you can get in Colorado comes from the state organization. The Colorado FOP has apparently asked Frazier to remove the endorsement from his website, which obviously hasn't happened yet.
We were going to do a quick Photoshop rendition to illustrate our point, but it turns out that the website for Republican Ryan Frazier (running against Lang Sias for the GOP nomination in CD-7) had the perfect picture already.
If you think that's just a picture of Frazier staring at the U.S./Mexico border...you're right!
Yesterday, Frazier took part in what has become the coolest, hippest political nonsense move of 2010: Traveling to the southern edges of the U.S. to look at the border and thus show voters how serious you are about illegal immigration.
Really, look at that picture! Is Ryan Frazier totally serious about illegal immigration or what!? If he wasn't really, really serious about illegal immigration, then why would he travel hundreds of miles just to look at some dirt and a big fence? Well, what's your answer to that? Yeah, that's what we thought. Goddamn right!
Not only did Frazier travel to the border yesterday, he even held a tele-town hallfrom the border to discuss illegal immigration. That's some gen-U-ine commitment to the issue right there! You can't really talk about illegal immigration until you've stood there, in the middle of the day, and stared at a fence between the United States and Mexico! Sure, you could talk about illegal immigration from Colorado, but it's not the same as doing it from Arizona or New Mexico, now is it?
Thanks for joining me, Ryan Frazier, on the call tonight. I'm right here at the U.S./Mexico border, talking to you from a place where illegal immigrants are probably not crossing into the country on account of this gigantic fence and the big presence at this particular location. But lemme tell you something -- I'm going to do something about illegal immigration! If you elect me to Congress, I might even come back here to stare at the border some more! I've seen the border with my own eyes! Has Lang Sias looked at it with his own eyes? What about Ed Perlmutter? I don't know -- maybe they have. But I'm the only one who took time to come down here during this important election season and stare at it. And I really stared at it, my friends! I stared the hell out of it!
The campaign for Republican Lang Sias, one of two GOP hopefuls in CD-7, reported raising just $74,460 in Q2. Sias now has a measly $102,566 cash on hand (COH), which probably won't be enough to get him past Ryan Frazier in the primary. Frazier raised $184,316 in Q2, for a total COH amount of $401,292.
The winner of the Republican Primary is probably a moot argument anyway, since incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter $1,391,084 in the bank.
UPDATE: You can read our Top 5 after the jump. Tomorrow -- the "sleeper" picks.
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The NFL Draft kicks off tonight, with the first round being held in prime time for the first time in history. That got us thinking about how a political draft might play out in Colorado.
Which Colorado politician, active or retired, would you select #1 overall if your goal was to win a statewide election in 2010? Here's the scenario:
Suppose Colorado was awarded a third U.S. Senate seat, so there is no incumbent and no history of incumbency.
You are choosing the best politician to win that seat in 2010.
This is not about who would be the best Senator or do the best job in office. This is pure politics -- who is most likely to get elected AND who helps you down the ticket? Ideally you want your top pick to be helpful for the rest of your political "team." You could make your #1 pick an "Independent" candidate, but that wouldn't help anyone else down-ticket.
Ignore current partisan labels. You could choose Gov. Bill Ritter and run him as a Republican if you wanted.
Pay no attention to whether or not someone would be putting another seat in danger if they ran for something else (for example, Rep. John Salazar. Pick as though you want the single best chance to win this one race.
So, how would you fill out your wish list? Who would you choose #1? Who would make up your Top Ten, in order? Make your picks below, and read about our Top Five after the jump.
Just released today, Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter has officially endorsed Sen. Michael Bennet. From a press release:
Democrats in Colorado are blessed to have two highly qualified men running to represent Colorado in the United States Senate. One is our sitting US Senator, Michael Bennet, the other is our former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives, Andrew Romanoff.
I have remained neutral in their primary until now, because I believe both men are gifted and talented public servants of whom Colorado can be proud. However, I have decided to endorse Michael Bennet in this primary. Over the past year, Michael's diligence, determination and dedication to solving problems and moving Colorado and America forward have earned my trust, respect and full support.
Perlmutter and Denver Rep. Dianna DeGette had been the only Democratic members of Colorado's delegation to not take a side in the Senate primary, but of the two Perlmutter's support is definitely more important. Perlmutter's district boundaries include large portions of two of Colorado's biggest and most electorally important counties -- Jefferson and Adams -- and his support will carry particular weight among Jefferson County Democrats who might have been inclined to back Andrew Romanoff.
To this point we've been generally dismissive of radio host Jimmy Lakey's hints at running for Congress in CD-7. Radio personalities, like Dan Caplis, often talk about becoming candidates but never actually make the jump.
But it appears as though Lakey is really running, as evidenced by a recent endorsement from former Rep. Tom Tancredo. Take a look at the Tancredo endorsement email after the jump, which warns of illegal immigrants kidnapping your dog, or something, if Lakey's primary opponents (Ryan Frazier and Lang Sias) win the nomination. "The Republic is at risk!"
We joke about Tancredo's endorsement, but in a multi-candidate Republican primary, it could actually play a huge role. Lakey only needs about 10,000 votes to win a three-way race, (there are 85,000 active Republican voters in CD-7, and traditionally only about one-third of eligible voters participate in a primary) and we're guessing there are a lot of anti-immigrant GOP voters who will take Tancredo's advice on who to vote for this August. If Lakey can do even a decent job of raising money, he's got a real shot here.
The campaign for Democrat Rep. Ed Perlmutter announced yesterday that he raised $215,201 in Q4 and now has $1,045,319 cash on hand.
Since first elected in 2006, Perlmutter has regularly been one of the Colorado delegation's most prolific fundraisers and enters his second re-election campaign with more than a million dollars already in the bank.
(Bumped into Thursday for self-evident reasons - promoted by Colorado Pols)
After a wild 24 hours that saw more than 500 comments from Polsters in two separate posts, its time to take a look at the questions and answers from one of the more surprising political announcements in recent Colorado history.
Here's what we know, what we've heard, and all of the questions both answered and unanswered surrounding Gov. Bill Ritter's announcement today that he will not run for re-election in 2010.
Apparently Ryan Frazier's announcement yesterday that he will run for Congress in CD-7 instead of U.S. Senate didn't go all that well. We've heard estimates of only about 30 people, half of whom were staff or volunteers.
But don't take our word for it. Here's a video of Frazier's announcement speech yesterday, and you can judge for yourself based on the crowd reaction (or embarrassing lack thereof) to Frazier's uncanny vocal impression of Barack Obama.
We've said before that Frazier is not prepared for a big race like Senate or Congress, and our analysis holds. Weak turnout yesterday, combined with some genius's idea to hold the kickoff in front of a loud and busy road, doesn't exactly inspire confidence if you're a Republican (cue sound of three people clapping).
Say this about Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier: The man has no problems with beating his head against a wall.
According to The Denver Post, Frazier will soon drop out of the race for U.S. Senate -- a race he almost certainly cannot win -- in order to challenge incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter in CD-7. Which, coincidentally, is also a race he almost certainly cannot win.
As we've written in this space before, Frazier made a bold move by entering the race for U.S. Senate early in the process, but all of the air quickly left his campaign when he reported an abysmal first fundraising quarter. Fortunately for Frazier, whatever money he raised in a bid for U.S. Senate translates into a congressional race, but even so, we're not so sure this is the best move for him politically. Why?
Because in a crowded Republican primary for Senate, the odds are better that Frazier could emerge as the GOP nominee than they are that Frazier could win a head-to-head battle against a popular and well-funded two-term incumbent Perlmutter. Frazier pushed all his chips on the table when he announced he was running for the U.S. Senate, and pulling them back now to run for congress doesn't improve his odds at being elected -- it only reduces the size of the pot.
It would have made a lot more sense for Frazier to run against Perlmutter from the beginning, rather than attempting a U.S. Senate bid. But since he's already chosen the Senate, he might as well stay on that path. Frazier probably can't win the GOP nomination for Senate, but he also can't likely win the congressional seat in CD-7. So he might as well stick with the one that has the bigger payoff.
Quick side note: While we're on the subject of CD-7, we had to make a comment on this quick section of the story:
Frazier was elected to the Aurora City Council in 2003 and re-elected in 2007.
"I think people forget that as a city councilman at-large, Frazier represents the entire city of Aurora," said Dick Wadhams, chairman of the Colorado Republican Party.
Aurora, population 319,000, is Colorado's third-largest city.
Yes, Aurora is Colorado's third-largest city, but the city is split between different congressional districts. Furthermore, city council elections in any place other than Denver, where large sums of money is spent and a lot of media attention is generated, are always generally ignored by the public. A very small percentage of people vote in municipal elections (Frazier won the election with a meager 14,645 total votes in 2007, while 41,836 Aurorans voted for Perlmutter in 2008), so being an at-large candidate in Aurora is completely irrelevant in terms of name ID. No doubt most Aurora voters couldn't name any of their city council members.
(So 'passionate' about health care they just had to vandalize a car - promoted by Colorado Pols)
First a review of the event, and then the teabagging part saved for the end...
Yesterday I drove up to Brighton to Ed Perlmutter's Government at Your Grocery event. After having seen the nature of the crowd at the Stout Street Clinic in Denver, I wanted to see what the atmosphere would be like at an event where there was actually an expectation of being able to speak to one's Congressman as opposed to just doing street theater for the media.
It turned out that the crowd was less animated in Brighton than it was in Denver, despite the presence of the media. The vast majority of the people present were residents of the district who were in support of sweeping reform of the healthcare system. Many were in favor of far more sweeping reform (single payer) than is currently being proposed.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter has always been a prolific fundraiser, and he continues to rake in the cash for his campaign coffers. Perlmutter raised an impressive $260,420 in Q2, giving him more than $816,000 cash on hand.
While no credible Republican has of yet announced plans to run in CD-7, Perlmutter's strong fundraising numbers should make any potential challengers less than enthusiastic about a run. When you can raise more than a quarter million for your campaign 18 months out in a non-targeted district, that makes you a tough candidate to beat.
According to Roll Call Sen. Michael Bennet may be inching ever closer to a serious primary challenge:
In the weeks since Bennet took office, Colorado Democrats continue to keep an eye on [Andrew] Romanoff - who left office in January because of term limits - to see whether he will challenge Ritter's hand-picked successor.
Romanoff could not be reached for comment Monday, but multiple Colorado sources said there has been increasing chatter in political circles that Bennet will not make it through the 2010 primary without a serious challenge.
"I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a primary against Bennet," said Steve Welchert, who heads up a Denver-based Democratic consulting firm. "It would shock me if he wasn't challenged."
There's little question that Romanoff is seriously considering a primary challenge, and he may not be the only one if the rumor mills are correct. This was one of the potential problems that Gov. Bill Ritter created by appointing the unknown Bennet, because it's hard to believe that another Democrat would have been considering a serious challenge to a more well-known incumbent Senator like Romanoff, Ed Perlmutter or John Hickenlooper.
If Bennet does get ousted in a primary in 2010, the irony in all of this is that it is Ritter who will be severely weakened. A more well-known Democrat might be tougher to beat in a general election than Bennet, which would highlight Ritter's mistake to begin with.
Republican Sen. Shawn Mitchell is expected to be a top target for Democrats in 2008, and his Democratic opponent may have been all but finalized. Democrat Joe Whitcomb has been openly running for the seat for months, and recently he received the endorsement of Congressman Ed Perlmutter.
While Perlmutter doesn't represent much of the senate district in question, his backing should go a long way in preventing a serious primary challenge for Whitcomb.
Freshman Rep. Ed Perlmutterreported raising $195,174 for Q3, leaving him $438,511 cash on hand. Perlmutter is following the formula used by Rep. John Salazar in 2005 during his first year in congress, when he raised around $1 million in his first four quarters.
Perlmutter's continued strong fundraising, coupled with his blowout victory over Rick O'Donnell, should be enough to scare away serious opponents - much as Salazar scared off tough challengers prior to the 2006 race.
