Just released today, Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter has officially endorsed Sen. Michael Bennet. From a press release:
Democrats in Colorado are blessed to have two highly qualified men running to represent Colorado in the United States Senate. One is our sitting US Senator, Michael Bennet, the other is our former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives, Andrew Romanoff.
I have remained neutral in their primary until now, because I believe both men are gifted and talented public servants of whom Colorado can be proud. However, I have decided to endorse Michael Bennet in this primary. Over the past year, Michael's diligence, determination and dedication to solving problems and moving Colorado and America forward have earned my trust, respect and full support.
Perlmutter and Denver Rep. Dianna DeGette had been the only Democratic members of Colorado's delegation to not take a side in the Senate primary, but of the two Perlmutter's support is definitely more important. Perlmutter's district boundaries include large portions of two of Colorado's biggest and most electorally important counties -- Jefferson and Adams -- and his support will carry particular weight among Jefferson County Democrats who might have been inclined to back Andrew Romanoff.
To this point we've been generally dismissive of radio host Jimmy Lakey's hints at running for Congress in CD-7. Radio personalities, like Dan Caplis, often talk about becoming candidates but never actually make the jump.
But it appears as though Lakey is really running, as evidenced by a recent endorsement from former Rep. Tom Tancredo. Take a look at the Tancredo endorsement email after the jump, which warns of illegal immigrants kidnapping your dog, or something, if Lakey's primary opponents (Ryan Frazier and Lang Sias) win the nomination. "The Republic is at risk!"
We joke about Tancredo's endorsement, but in a multi-candidate Republican primary, it could actually play a huge role. Lakey only needs about 10,000 votes to win a three-way race, (there are 85,000 active Republican voters in CD-7, and traditionally only about one-third of eligible voters participate in a primary) and we're guessing there are a lot of anti-immigrant GOP voters who will take Tancredo's advice on who to vote for this August. If Lakey can do even a decent job of raising money, he's got a real shot here.
The campaign for Democrat Rep. Ed Perlmutter announced yesterday that he raised $215,201 in Q4 and now has $1,045,319 cash on hand.
Since first elected in 2006, Perlmutter has regularly been one of the Colorado delegation's most prolific fundraisers and enters his second re-election campaign with more than a million dollars already in the bank.
(Bumped into Thursday for self-evident reasons - promoted by Colorado Pols)
After a wild 24 hours that saw more than 500 comments from Polsters in two separate posts, its time to take a look at the questions and answers from one of the more surprising political announcements in recent Colorado history.
Here's what we know, what we've heard, and all of the questions both answered and unanswered surrounding Gov. Bill Ritter's announcement today that he will not run for re-election in 2010.
Apparently Ryan Frazier's announcement yesterday that he will run for Congress in CD-7 instead of U.S. Senate didn't go all that well. We've heard estimates of only about 30 people, half of whom were staff or volunteers.
But don't take our word for it. Here's a video of Frazier's announcement speech yesterday, and you can judge for yourself based on the crowd reaction (or embarrassing lack thereof) to Frazier's uncanny vocal impression of Barack Obama.
We've said before that Frazier is not prepared for a big race like Senate or Congress, and our analysis holds. Weak turnout yesterday, combined with some genius's idea to hold the kickoff in front of a loud and busy road, doesn't exactly inspire confidence if you're a Republican (cue sound of three people clapping).
Say this about Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier: The man has no problems with beating his head against a wall.
According to The Denver Post, Frazier will soon drop out of the race for U.S. Senate -- a race he almost certainly cannot win -- in order to challenge incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter in CD-7. Which, coincidentally, is also a race he almost certainly cannot win.
As we've written in this space before, Frazier made a bold move by entering the race for U.S. Senate early in the process, but all of the air quickly left his campaign when he reported an abysmal first fundraising quarter. Fortunately for Frazier, whatever money he raised in a bid for U.S. Senate translates into a congressional race, but even so, we're not so sure this is the best move for him politically. Why?
Because in a crowded Republican primary for Senate, the odds are better that Frazier could emerge as the GOP nominee than they are that Frazier could win a head-to-head battle against a popular and well-funded two-term incumbent Perlmutter. Frazier pushed all his chips on the table when he announced he was running for the U.S. Senate, and pulling them back now to run for congress doesn't improve his odds at being elected -- it only reduces the size of the pot.
It would have made a lot more sense for Frazier to run against Perlmutter from the beginning, rather than attempting a U.S. Senate bid. But since he's already chosen the Senate, he might as well stay on that path. Frazier probably can't win the GOP nomination for Senate, but he also can't likely win the congressional seat in CD-7. So he might as well stick with the one that has the bigger payoff.
Quick side note: While we're on the subject of CD-7, we had to make a comment on this quick section of the story:
Frazier was elected to the Aurora City Council in 2003 and re-elected in 2007.
"I think people forget that as a city councilman at-large, Frazier represents the entire city of Aurora," said Dick Wadhams, chairman of the Colorado Republican Party.
Aurora, population 319,000, is Colorado's third-largest city.
Yes, Aurora is Colorado's third-largest city, but the city is split between different congressional districts. Furthermore, city council elections in any place other than Denver, where large sums of money is spent and a lot of media attention is generated, are always generally ignored by the public. A very small percentage of people vote in municipal elections (Frazier won the election with a meager 14,645 total votes in 2007, while 41,836 Aurorans voted for Perlmutter in 2008), so being an at-large candidate in Aurora is completely irrelevant in terms of name ID. No doubt most Aurora voters couldn't name any of their city council members.
(So 'passionate' about health care they just had to vandalize a car - promoted by Colorado Pols)
First a review of the event, and then the teabagging part saved for the end...
Yesterday I drove up to Brighton to Ed Perlmutter's Government at Your Grocery event. After having seen the nature of the crowd at the Stout Street Clinic in Denver, I wanted to see what the atmosphere would be like at an event where there was actually an expectation of being able to speak to one's Congressman as opposed to just doing street theater for the media.
It turned out that the crowd was less animated in Brighton than it was in Denver, despite the presence of the media. The vast majority of the people present were residents of the district who were in support of sweeping reform of the healthcare system. Many were in favor of far more sweeping reform (single payer) than is currently being proposed.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter has always been a prolific fundraiser, and he continues to rake in the cash for his campaign coffers. Perlmutter raised an impressive $260,420 in Q2, giving him more than $816,000 cash on hand.
While no credible Republican has of yet announced plans to run in CD-7, Perlmutter's strong fundraising numbers should make any potential challengers less than enthusiastic about a run. When you can raise more than a quarter million for your campaign 18 months out in a non-targeted district, that makes you a tough candidate to beat.
According to Roll Call Sen. Michael Bennet may be inching ever closer to a serious primary challenge:
In the weeks since Bennet took office, Colorado Democrats continue to keep an eye on [Andrew] Romanoff - who left office in January because of term limits - to see whether he will challenge Ritter's hand-picked successor.
Romanoff could not be reached for comment Monday, but multiple Colorado sources said there has been increasing chatter in political circles that Bennet will not make it through the 2010 primary without a serious challenge.
"I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a primary against Bennet," said Steve Welchert, who heads up a Denver-based Democratic consulting firm. "It would shock me if he wasn't challenged."
There's little question that Romanoff is seriously considering a primary challenge, and he may not be the only one if the rumor mills are correct. This was one of the potential problems that Gov. Bill Ritter created by appointing the unknown Bennet, because it's hard to believe that another Democrat would have been considering a serious challenge to a more well-known incumbent Senator like Romanoff, Ed Perlmutter or John Hickenlooper.
If Bennet does get ousted in a primary in 2010, the irony in all of this is that it is Ritter who will be severely weakened. A more well-known Democrat might be tougher to beat in a general election than Bennet, which would highlight Ritter's mistake to begin with.
Republican Sen. Shawn Mitchell is expected to be a top target for Democrats in 2008, and his Democratic opponent may have been all but finalized. Democrat Joe Whitcomb has been openly running for the seat for months, and recently he received the endorsement of Congressman Ed Perlmutter.
While Perlmutter doesn't represent much of the senate district in question, his backing should go a long way in preventing a serious primary challenge for Whitcomb.
Freshman Rep. Ed Perlmutterreported raising $195,174 for Q3, leaving him $438,511 cash on hand. Perlmutter is following the formula used by Rep. John Salazar in 2005 during his first year in congress, when he raised around $1 million in his first four quarters.
Perlmutter's continued strong fundraising, coupled with his blowout victory over Rick O'Donnell, should be enough to scare away serious opponents - much as Salazar scared off tough challengers prior to the 2006 race.
