According to a recent poll by Republican firm Magellan Strategies, Republican challenger Ryan Frazier leads Democrat incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter 40-39, with 11% undecided (MOE +/- 3.4%).
While the Frazier campaign certainly wants to trumpet this poll as a sign that he can defeat Perlmutter, we don't see it yet. This is the first public poll on this matchup, and Frazier doesn't actually do better than generic matchup polls between Republican and Democratic candidates. Since neither campaign has started heavy TV advertising, this poll is essentially a "generic R vs. D" poll.
The real problem for Frazier is that there's no reason to think he can expand on this. As of the last FEC reporting period, Perlmutter had a million dollars more cash on hand than Frazier; while that deficit could be made up somewhat by the NRCC, since CD-7 has never made it to the top of the pickup list, there's no reason to think the NRCC would spend any real money here when they have better odds in CD-4 with Cory Gardner.
According to the Cook Political Report, CD-7 is a "Likely Democrat" district, and President Obama won the district by 18 points in 2008. Frazier is going to need a lot more than this poll to convince national Republicans to toss real money into CD-7; barring that decision, he's got nowhere to go but down. There are three potentially vulnerable Democrats in Colorado (Perlmutter, Rep. John Salazar and Rep. Betsy Markey), and it's extremely unlikely that all three will lose their bid for re-election. Perlmutter has to be considered the safest of the three, if nothing else because he is in a district with a Democratic voter registration advantage.
We've gotten a couple of emails on this subject, so we thought we'd put a list together and see if the Pols community could help us fill it out. Which top-ticket Republican candidates (all statewide and congressional seats) have endorsed GOP Gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes, and who has yet to offer their public support?
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES ENDORSING MAES
U.S. Senate candidate Ken Buck
Rep. Doug Lamborn (CD-5)
Rep. Mike Coffman (CD-6)
UNKNOWN POSITION OR NO ENDORSEMENT YET
Treasurer candidate Walker Stapleton
Attorney General John Suthers
Secretary of State candidate Scott Gessler
CD-4 candidate Cory Gardner
CD-7 candidate Ryan Frazier
Help us out, Polsters! Maes' website doesn't seem to have an updated list of endorsements, so if you've seen one of the candidates in the second list make an endorsement, let us know.
Yesterday the campaign of Sen. Michael Bennet issued a press release detailing the fact that Republican Senate hopeful Ken Buck had missed at least 133 days of work (or about one-third of the time he should have been working) as Weld County District Attorney in order to campaign for the Senate.
Today, the Colorado Democratic Party issued a release calling on Republican CD-7 Ryan Frazier to pay back a chunk of his salary as an Aurora City Council Member since he has missed roughly 30% of his city council obligations in the last two years while campaigning, first for U.S. Senate, and now in CD-7.
Frazier's missed city council duties have previously been reported by the major Denver newspaper, and Buck's absences were recently reported by the newspaper in Greeley. We can't recall any prior candidate for a major office missing as much time in their prior elected positions Buck and Frazier. It's a staggering amount of absences, really, and doesn't do much to help them make the case that they're the candidates to fix an inefficient Congress; it's hard to be particularly efficient when you don't even show up for work.
This argument is particularly tough for Buck to repeat, when his opponent (Bennet) has a 100% voting record in the Senate...and his office is all the way across the country. In the month of July alone, Buck missed 25 days of work. 25!
But say this for Buck and Frazier: At least they've made their current jobs more attractive for future candidates. Run for my job, and you'll only have to show up one out of every three days!
UPDATE (2:12 p.m.): That didn't take long. Frazier's campaign website has already been fixed so that the press release with the FOP endorsement is now gone.
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Yesterday Democrat Ed Perlmutter's campaign sent out a press release (full release after the jump) noting that he had received the unanimous endorsement of the Colorado Fraternal Order of Police (FOP). What makes this newsworthy, you say? Well, the fact that Republican CD-7 challenger Ryan Frazieralsoclaims to have been endorsed by the FOP.
The Board of Directors for the Fraternal Order of Police, Lodge 49 of the Aurora Police Department today announced their unanimous decision to endorse Ryan Frazier's candidacy for the 7th Congressional District of Colorado. Frazier earned the endorsement for his leadership role as an Aurora City Councilman and his dedication to public safety.
So how did the Colorado FOP "unanimously" endorse Perlmutter while the Aurora FOP "unanimously" endorse Frazier? Apparently the Aurora FOP isn't actually permitted to offer an endorsement of its own, and the only FOP endorsement you can get in Colorado comes from the state organization. The Colorado FOP has apparently asked Frazier to remove the endorsement from his website, which obviously hasn't happened yet.
We joked earlier about Republican Ryan Frazier's trip to the U.S./Mexico border to prove that he is really on top of the illegal immigration issue. Well, that post got us to start wondering about what else Frazier has been looking at lately.
We're not done with this joke -- not by far. We want to see your submissions, Polsters. Show us your best photoshopping of Ryan Frazier in front of various places that demonstrate his commitment to an important campaign issue. Post your pictures in the comments below, and we'll compile the best for a Colorado Pols vote! Meanwhile, check out some of our findings:
Here's Ryan Frazier showing his commitment to the military. Look, a helicopter!
Here's Ryan Frazier demonstrating his commitment to jobs and the economy, by proving he knows where to find the Colorado Department of Labor building:
We were going to do a quick Photoshop rendition to illustrate our point, but it turns out that the website for Republican Ryan Frazier (running against Lang Sias for the GOP nomination in CD-7) had the perfect picture already.
If you think that's just a picture of Frazier staring at the U.S./Mexico border...you're right!
Yesterday, Frazier took part in what has become the coolest, hippest political nonsense move of 2010: Traveling to the southern edges of the U.S. to look at the border and thus show voters how serious you are about illegal immigration.
Really, look at that picture! Is Ryan Frazier totally serious about illegal immigration or what!? If he wasn't really, really serious about illegal immigration, then why would he travel hundreds of miles just to look at some dirt and a big fence? Well, what's your answer to that? Yeah, that's what we thought. Goddamn right!
Not only did Frazier travel to the border yesterday, he even held a tele-town hallfrom the border to discuss illegal immigration. That's some gen-U-ine commitment to the issue right there! You can't really talk about illegal immigration until you've stood there, in the middle of the day, and stared at a fence between the United States and Mexico! Sure, you could talk about illegal immigration from Colorado, but it's not the same as doing it from Arizona or New Mexico, now is it?
Thanks for joining me, Ryan Frazier, on the call tonight. I'm right here at the U.S./Mexico border, talking to you from a place where illegal immigrants are probably not crossing into the country on account of this gigantic fence and the big presence at this particular location. But lemme tell you something -- I'm going to do something about illegal immigration! If you elect me to Congress, I might even come back here to stare at the border some more! I've seen the border with my own eyes! Has Lang Sias looked at it with his own eyes? What about Ed Perlmutter? I don't know -- maybe they have. But I'm the only one who took time to come down here during this important election season and stare at it. And I really stared at it, my friends! I stared the hell out of it!
The campaign for Republican Lang Sias, one of two GOP hopefuls in CD-7, reported raising just $74,460 in Q2. Sias now has a measly $102,566 cash on hand (COH), which probably won't be enough to get him past Ryan Frazier in the primary. Frazier raised $184,316 in Q2, for a total COH amount of $401,292.
The winner of the Republican Primary is probably a moot argument anyway, since incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter $1,391,084 in the bank.
To this point we've been generally dismissive of radio host Jimmy Lakey's hints at running for Congress in CD-7. Radio personalities, like Dan Caplis, often talk about becoming candidates but never actually make the jump.
But it appears as though Lakey is really running, as evidenced by a recent endorsement from former Rep. Tom Tancredo. Take a look at the Tancredo endorsement email after the jump, which warns of illegal immigrants kidnapping your dog, or something, if Lakey's primary opponents (Ryan Frazier and Lang Sias) win the nomination. "The Republic is at risk!"
We joke about Tancredo's endorsement, but in a multi-candidate Republican primary, it could actually play a huge role. Lakey only needs about 10,000 votes to win a three-way race, (there are 85,000 active Republican voters in CD-7, and traditionally only about one-third of eligible voters participate in a primary) and we're guessing there are a lot of anti-immigrant GOP voters who will take Tancredo's advice on who to vote for this August. If Lakey can do even a decent job of raising money, he's got a real shot here.
Arizona Sen. and 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain today headlined a fundraising email for former campaign staffer Lang Sias in the crowded CD-7 Republican primary, dealing another blow to the rapidly-dwindling prospects for ex-U.S. Senate candidate Ryan Frazier.
Full text after the jump: writes McCain, "Lang understands, as I do, that prosperity and economic growth do not come from government bureaucrats, but rather from American small businesses, entrepreneurs and innovation...In Congress, as he has done his entire life, he will be a leader on the issues that matter most to Colorado voters, and their families."
We still have no idea who Lang Sias is, but that's even worse news for Frazier. It's not good when your opponent is unknown but still gets the bigger endorsement.
As we've done in other election years, we regularly poll our readers on various races to gauge changing perceptions. These obviously aren't scientific polls, but they do help to show how the perception of various candidates are changing. We'll conduct these polls each month and then show the results to see how the winds are shifting.
As always, please vote based on what you think will happen, not on who you would vote for or which candidate you support personally. Think of it this way: If you had to bet the deed to your house, who would you pick?
Apparently Ryan Frazier's announcement yesterday that he will run for Congress in CD-7 instead of U.S. Senate didn't go all that well. We've heard estimates of only about 30 people, half of whom were staff or volunteers.
But don't take our word for it. Here's a video of Frazier's announcement speech yesterday, and you can judge for yourself based on the crowd reaction (or embarrassing lack thereof) to Frazier's uncanny vocal impression of Barack Obama.
We've said before that Frazier is not prepared for a big race like Senate or Congress, and our analysis holds. Weak turnout yesterday, combined with some genius's idea to hold the kickoff in front of a loud and busy road, doesn't exactly inspire confidence if you're a Republican (cue sound of three people clapping).
Say this about Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier: The man has no problems with beating his head against a wall.
According to The Denver Post, Frazier will soon drop out of the race for U.S. Senate -- a race he almost certainly cannot win -- in order to challenge incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter in CD-7. Which, coincidentally, is also a race he almost certainly cannot win.
As we've written in this space before, Frazier made a bold move by entering the race for U.S. Senate early in the process, but all of the air quickly left his campaign when he reported an abysmal first fundraising quarter. Fortunately for Frazier, whatever money he raised in a bid for U.S. Senate translates into a congressional race, but even so, we're not so sure this is the best move for him politically. Why?
Because in a crowded Republican primary for Senate, the odds are better that Frazier could emerge as the GOP nominee than they are that Frazier could win a head-to-head battle against a popular and well-funded two-term incumbent Perlmutter. Frazier pushed all his chips on the table when he announced he was running for the U.S. Senate, and pulling them back now to run for congress doesn't improve his odds at being elected -- it only reduces the size of the pot.
It would have made a lot more sense for Frazier to run against Perlmutter from the beginning, rather than attempting a U.S. Senate bid. But since he's already chosen the Senate, he might as well stay on that path. Frazier probably can't win the GOP nomination for Senate, but he also can't likely win the congressional seat in CD-7. So he might as well stick with the one that has the bigger payoff.
Quick side note: While we're on the subject of CD-7, we had to make a comment on this quick section of the story:
Frazier was elected to the Aurora City Council in 2003 and re-elected in 2007.
"I think people forget that as a city councilman at-large, Frazier represents the entire city of Aurora," said Dick Wadhams, chairman of the Colorado Republican Party.
Aurora, population 319,000, is Colorado's third-largest city.
Yes, Aurora is Colorado's third-largest city, but the city is split between different congressional districts. Furthermore, city council elections in any place other than Denver, where large sums of money is spent and a lot of media attention is generated, are always generally ignored by the public. A very small percentage of people vote in municipal elections (Frazier won the election with a meager 14,645 total votes in 2007, while 41,836 Aurorans voted for Perlmutter in 2008), so being an at-large candidate in Aurora is completely irrelevant in terms of name ID. No doubt most Aurora voters couldn't name any of their city council members.
With less than a year until the 2010 primaries, it's time to start the annual Colorado Pols Polls.
As we've done in other election years, we regularly poll our readers on various races to gauge changing perceptions. These obviously aren't scientific polls, but they do help to show how the perception of various candidates are changing. We'll conduct these polls each month and then show the results to see how the winds are shifting (click to see the Democratic poll).
As always, please vote based on what you think will happen, not on who you would vote for or which candidate you support personally. Think of it this way: If you had to bet the deed to your house, who would you pick?
Rasmussen Reports decided to drop a poll into the field on Colorado's U.S. Senate race at an unfortunate time. While the poll shows that incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet is not very popular, the matchups between potential challengers Ken Buck and Ryan Frazier are all but irrelevant now that Jane Norton has entered the race on the Republican side.
But rather than focus on what the Rasmussen poll does not tell us about 2010, let's look instead at the small nuggets of valuable information that it does contain.
Bennet outpolls Buck 43-37, but trails Frazier 40-39. While giddy Frazier supporters (both of them) will no doubt point to this as proof that their man has what it takes to be the next GOP Senator from Colorado, that's not the case. Looking a little deeper into the poll shows why:
The hot rumor circulating this morning is that as-yet undeclared GOP Senate candidate Jane Norton had a deal--and now she doesn't. And when the deal falls though, you usually walk away, don't you?
As you know, evidence that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) was preparing to devote resources to Norton's campaign--which would have had the effect of severely debilitating primary opponents--caused a major backlash among the Republican rank-and-file last week. By Friday, the situation had gotten to the point that the leading (declared) GOP candidate, Weld County DA Ken Buck, was widely reported to be getting out of the race.
Today, though, everything has changed--Buck is defiantly staying in the race. Colorado GOP chairman Dick Wadhams, who everybody we've talked to believes was intimately involved in the NRSC's backroom commitments to Norton, is running away from this debacle as fast as his denials can carry him. The GOP activist base, now sensitized to what almost happened right under their noses, will be watching for any further shenanigans--and they've used this opportunity to remind leadership in no uncertain terms what they think of "RINOs" like Jane Norton.
So where does that leave her?
Frankly, it depends--if an agreement for Norton to enter the 2010 Senate race was contingent on clearing the primary field for her, as it was for 2008 Senate candidate Bob Schaffer, she's now got a very good reason to reconsider. Or she could decide to stay and fight. Given that Norton has been floated as a potential candidate for higher office for years, and has always declined, it wouldn't shock us if she ultimately decided not to run for Senate.
The word we're getting--we'll remind everyone that it's only a rumor, though on good authority, and people do change their minds regardless--is the backlash of the last few days was considerably more than she bargained for.
Republicans have lately been dropping in and out of the U.S. Senate race like it's a student council seat, so we thought it time to take a new look at what's what now that we're past the 12 month mark until the primary.
Former Congressman Bob Beauprez will not run for the U.S. Senate, he said in an email to supporters this afternoon.
"Having been presented with the potential to serve in the United States Senate, Claudia and I considered it very carefully. However after significant reflection, I will not be a candidate for the Senate in 2010," he wrote.
His decision leaves four GOP candidates: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier, Evergreen businessman Dan Maes and Cleve Tidwell of Denver. Last week, the Denver Post reported that former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is also looking at entering the GOP field.
Let's face it: Beauprez isn't running because he looked around, considered various staffers, and finally realized what we'd been saying for a long time. He. Can't. Win.
It's no secret that Beauprez has been wanting to get back into politics since 2006, but he's still way too much damaged goods.
Meanwhile, Jane Norton's Senate bid is basically a lock at this point. Everybody's talking about it. Democrats we've talked to this evening seem awfully confident, like they know something we don't know. That's likely to be the case for a majority of Colorado voters, a good percentage of whom probably think her first name is Gale. Though to be fair, voters could think her first name was "Ken," and it's still a positive for her. Name ID is name ID, especially in a GOP primary--and general election--where nobody knows anybody.
And for all the buzz about "salvation," we kind of doubt Ken Buck sees it that way--and he's probably the one extant candidate we're not writing off yet.
UPDATE: We omitted Cleve Tidwell from our original post. We regret the error. Deeply.
Former State Senator Tom Wiens is apparently moving towards taking a shot at the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate.
When Wiens announced that he wouldn't run again for the State Senate last year, it was widely believed that he was clearing his plate to make a run for Governor in 2010. That never materialized, of course, and since then we've heard repeated rumors that all was not well with Wiens' personal financial situation--as indicated as well by a Denver Post story last week.
We're not surprised that other Republicans are now looking at the U.S. Senate race after less than inspiring early runs (and fundraising) by Weld County D.A. Ken Buck and Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier.
If Wiens is in a good personal financial position to make a serious run for U.S. Senate, he shouldn't have much trouble moving to the top of the GOP list. Buck is the favorite at this point, and barring a huge fundraising turnaround in Q3, Frazier's campaign is pretty well D.O.A., so there is a definite opening on the Republican side for a candidate with better name ID and a stronger background like Wiens. In a Senate race that should be more competitive than it appears thus far, perhaps it was only a matter of time until a more realistic GOP candidate came along. Whether or not that candidate is Wiens remains to be seen.
One of the criticisms of Republican Ryan Frazier and his bid for U.S. Senate is that he is far too inexperienced politically to run for one of the top jobs in Colorado. Nowhere is that more evident than this long-winded, nonsensical fundraising email (full text after the jump) that Frazier recently sent out.
This is the beginning of the email. No, seriously:
Dear Friend of Freedom,
My name is Ryan Frazier. I'm asking you to join my team as we work to take back Colorado's U.S. Senate seat. For liberty! For solutions!
Friend of Freedom? For liberty? For solutions?
This is without a doubt the silliest campaign email we've seen in a long time. Next time, Ryan, you might have someone else read these things before you hit 'Send.'
We've been hearing talk about this for weeks now, and most Republicans we have talked to have all but laughed it off. But the Rocky Mountain News reports that Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier, the goofball in the laughably-staged picture at left, somehow believes that he could be a strong Republican candidate for...wait for it...U.S. Senate.
Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier is seriously considering a run for U.S. Senate in 2010, testing his ability to raise the millions of dollars needed to challenge Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.
Frazier, a black Republican, has met with GOP movers and shakers in Washington, D.C., and Colorado.
"There are a lot of options I need to look at and a lot of things I need to consider before I make a definite decision," he said.
Financing a campaign is among those considerations.
"I'm going through the motions and paces right now to see if I can raise the money," he said. "I think we can put together a winning campaign. I'm moving in that direction."
As we said earlier, most Republicans we've talked to have basically laughed this off. Frazier barely won re-election to the Aurora City Council a few years ago - the idea that he's ready for a jump to the U.S. freakin' Senate is downright silly.
On the plus side for Democrats, Frazier would be one of the few candidates Republicans could nominate with lower name ID than Democrat Michael Bennet. And labor unions would absolutely tee off on Frazier, who was the public face behind the soundly-defeated Amendment 47, or, "Right to Work."
We 
