As Jody Strogoff of The Colorado Statesman reports, major Republican donors Larry Mizel, Greg Maffei and Fred Hamilton are co-sponsoring a big fundraising lunch on Sept. 22 for Democrat John Hickenlooper's campaign for Governor:
With Mizel, Maffei and Hamilton out of the closet, so to speak, others will likely follow.
Mizel, chairman and chief executive officer of M.D.C. Holdings, Inc., is also one of Colorado's major political players, although most of his activities are behind the scenes. Between 1989 and 2006, Mizel and his wife are reported to have contributed about one million dollars to federal candidates, PACs, and political parties; 94 percent went to Republican candidates and party committees. His large donations, which have continued over the last few years, have placed Mizel among the nation's top 100 political contributors.
Mizel wasn't supporting McInnis for governor, and clearly won't be lending his name to Maes. But rather than having his endorsement of Hickenlooper construed as anti-Republican, Mizel views it simply as a smart business decision. He says Hickenlooper provides bipartisan leadership that is good for the city, good for the state, and good for business in general.
Hickenlooper, Mizel says, has shown his brilliance in terms of economic development leadership and will do well in reestablishing Colorado as a state that welcomes growth and development, business and a good quality of life...
...Greg Maffei also has a strong personal relationship with Hickenlooper. According to a profile in the Denver Post a few months ago, the Liberty Media Corp. chief executive was one of the first people Hickenlooper turned to when he was considering whether to run for governor. Maffei told Hickenlooper he thought the job was a good fit and urged him to run.
Maffei has strong Republican Party ties, here in Colorado as finance director for the state Republican Party, and as a major figure in Sen. John McCain's political activities over the years.
As the Statesman story points out, expect to see more major Republican donors migrating to Hickenlooper. After all, these guys didn't make their money by betting big on long shots.
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: As we suspected, Dan Maes is not proving agreeable to 'suggestions' that he exit the race--posted to his Facebook profile last night:
To be clear, the story is about high-level Republicans wanting Maes to get out of the race, or failing that to select a running mate from their approved roster. The only part of the "rumor" he has control over is his response--and for the time being anyway, there you have it.
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UPDATE: In this video from a gubernatorial debate between Scott McInnis and Dan Maes at the end of last month, McInnis strongly defends Maes (and himself) from any attempt after the primary to force either of them from the race. McInnis calls attempts to force either of them out a "bait and switch," and flatly states it would be "out of line" to go against the choice of primary voters.
No doubt he still thinks so.
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Top Republican "emissaries" are meeting with Republican Gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes today in an attempt to convince him to drop out of the race and let the GOP replace him with someone else.
According to an anonymous Republican source, GOP Chair Dick Wadhams is not among those involved in the meeting in an effort to keep some official distance from the process. The message from Republicans is that there will be no outside money and no fundraising assistance for Maes if he stays in the race, but if he drops out there could be support for him for future opportunities.
Republican leaders have been conspicuous in their public silence about Maes, and that silence was apparently part of the plan leading up to today's meeting. Top Republicans wanted to let Maes have a few days to himself after the election, hoping that their lack of attention would show him that he doesn't have the support he would need to win in November.
From what we have heard over the last 24 hours, however, Maes is unlikely to agree to any terms that would see him remove himself from the race for Governor because he truly believes that he has earned the nomination. As part of a last-ditch effort, top Republicans may try to get Maes to agree to their choice for a running mate, in hopes that a stronger Lieutenant Governor could be in a position to take over the ballot at some point.
It's important to keep in mind that these discussions are not really about finding a candidate who can win the governor's race in November. As we first reported in mid-July, Republicans recognize that their chances at beating Democrat John Hickenlooper are close to zero. What they want now is to find someone who can excite the GOP base and not be a drag on the ticket -- both for Ken Buck's U.S. Senate bid and for the downballot races. Maes can't win, and neither can a potential replacement; but at least a potential replacement isn't regularly being mocked both locally and nationally as a joke of a candidate. Maes' much-discussed "U.N. Bicycle Plot" is bad enough when he's just one of several candidates running in a Primary, but now it's the Republican candidate for Governor saying these things. That's a lot different.
Whatever the decision, Republicans don't have a lot of time to make it; the Secretary of State certifies the ballot on Sept. 3. A replacement candidate could still be programmed into the voting machines for early and Election Day voting, but the new name likely wouldn't make it onto the early mail ballot if something wasn't done before Sept. 3.
Let's get this out of the way first before the shills start accusing us of trying to "attack" or "undermine" the campaign of Republican gubernatorial nominee Dan Maes: He can't win. You know it. We know it. Everybody knows it. Maes cannot win the race for Governor, and he won't.
Neither Maes nor Scott McInniswas going to beat Democrat John Hickenlooper in November, particularly with Tom Tancredo in the race on the American Constitution Party ticket. But we're definitely glad to see Maes pull out the nomination over McInnis, because he's...well...he's hilarious. And not on purpose.
Maes was already spreading the knowledge in his victory speech last night, which included his brilliant plan to tackle illegal immigration. Just how will he solve this problem? Easy! Maes says that if he is elected Governor, he will "enroll the state in a program that deports illegal alien criminals."
Enroll Colorado in a program to deport illegal alien criminals? Brilliant! Why didn't anyone else ever think of that? You mean there is a program available to deport illegal immigrants, and Colorado just never bothered to "enroll"?
This should be a fun couple of months. Thank you, Republican voters.
UPDATE:Dan Maes is claiming victory, Tweets the state's newspaper of record.
This one (hee hee) might end up (snicker) having to go to a (guffaw) recount before it's over. You can't make this stuff up -- a potential recount to confirm the candidate that Republicans don't want anyway. If Republicans could vote on whether they even care who wins, we'd wager 'NO' would get more votes than either Maes or McInnis.
Kind of puts a dent in the old vacancy committee scheduling, eh?
Make your predictions below on who you think will win the big statewide Primary races. Get them in before 7:00 tonight to make sure you get full bragging rights for a correct answer, and we'll think up some sort of prize for the person who makes the most correct predictions.
PREDICTIONS
U.S. Senate (Democrats)
U.S. Senate (Republicans)
Governor (Republicans)
Treasurer (Republicans)
Tiebraker: The total number of votes cast in the Republican Primary for Treasurer.
Make sure to put your predictions in a numerical, percentages format. For example: Walker Stapleton over J.J. Ament, 54-46
We thought we'd again start a new thread with this information (click for the earlier post), now that we've got the latest (and last) update from the Secretary of State's office on ballot returns. Here are the ballot return numbers as of 3:00 p.m. today:
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned Democrats: 310,671/ 817,458/ 38%
Republicans: 358,953/ 855,667/ 42%
As we wrote earlier, these numbers have already smashed previous turnout figures for a Primary Election in Colorado, and they don't include turnout for El Paso and Weld Counties (which were not all-mail ballot counties). This could very well mean that Michael Bennet and Jane Norton will be the winners of their respective primaries because of their name ID advantage. We'd say the same thing for Scott McInnis in the Governor's race, but we have a feeling the undervote in that one will be huge.
UPDATE #2: More interesting voter trends from Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling and consulting firm, show that at least 28% of Republicans and 32.5% of Democrats that have voted thus far are casting a ballot for the first time in a Primary Election.
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UPDATE: In 1998, Colorado saw primaries on both the Democratic and Republican sides, for both U.S. Senate and Governor. Turnout in the 1998 Primary was 25.5% for Republicans and 19.7% for Democrats, so we are well into record territory here.
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Kudos to the Colorado Secretary of State's office, which is going above and beyond the call of duty in reporting ballot returns early today. The numbers below are as of Noon, while a second report will come out after 3:00 p.m.
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned Democrats: 298,062/ 817,458/ 36%
Republicans: 340,788/ 855,667/ 40%
Considering that El Paso and Weld Counties are two of those that are not conducting all-mail balloting in Colorado, it's safe to say that these numbers are going to rise significantly. This is really good news for the campaigns of Sen. Michael Bennet, Jane Norton, and Scott McInnis, because (as we've said repeatedly) the more well-known candidates almost always benefit from higher than normal turnout. Both Democrats and Republicans are voting in record numbers, easily surpassing turnout from any of the three previous Primary races.
The one caveat here is on the Republican side, where there have been rumblings for weeks of Republicans undervoting on their ballots. So while it's true that a record number of Republicans are returning their ballot, it may not be true that a record number of people are actually voting in the Senate or Governor Primary. We'd say it's more likely that people are undervoting the Governor's race than the Senate race, but the point here is that these returns may not mean as much for McInnis as they will for Bennet.
Richard Coolidge, the Public Information Officer for the SOS Office, also included these handy tips with today's report:
The question is "When" not "If" provisional ballots are counted. Primary night results are only an initial tabulation. The OFFICIAL count is due 13 days after the primary when the canvass board meets and reviews the votes. This 13 days allows time to verify provisional ballots and time for overseas military ballots to arrive (8-day extension for these ballots).
When will results be posted? Clerks are allowed to process ballots 15 days before the election. For the most part, counties will have most ballots cast up until Monday-ish processed and ready for tabulation after 7:00pm tonight. The rest of the results will be forthcoming. Obviously, your patience waiting for these results is most appreciated.
POLS NOTE: In order to make comments easier to read and understand, we decided to create a new post for these returns, rather than just updating the original post.
Below are the turnout numbers reported a little after 3:00 p.m. today by the SOS. Remember that there is some lag time in the reporting process (in other words, there are more ballots returned than what is listed below, but what is listed below is what the various County Clerks reported to the SOS today):
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned Democrats: 279,462/ 817,458/ 34%
Republicans: 314,264/ 855,667/ 37%
Richard Coolidge of the Secretary of State's office also included this note in today's ballot update:
Colorado County clerks may begin processing (not tabulating) ballots 15 days before the election. All 64 counties should have a good sample of mail ballots tabulated after 7:00pm tomorrow evening. Remember, 46 counties are voting exclusively by mail, so ballots received Tuesday may not be included in that original release of results. The remaining 18 counties will still have mail results, but will also need to factor in votes cast at precinct polling places (like El Paso, Pitkin, Las Animas, etc) or at vote centers (like Weld, Park, Archuleta, etc).
Our read on these numbers? The Michael Bennet campaign is going to be sweating it out tomorrow, hoping to see turnout reach levels cross well into the 300,000 level (the higher the turnout above 300,000, the better the odds that Bennet wins).
As for the GOP turnout, we're curious to see how big the undervote might be. Turnout is pretty high already considering the amount of grumbling from Republicans over their (lack of) great choices for Governor, and to a lesser extent, U.S. Senate, but if most of the returned ballots are casting a vote in the race for Governor and Senate, this benefits Scott McInnis and Jane Norton in their respective races.
New polling out this morning from Public Policy Polling has some interesting numbers across the board in the three top-ticket Primaries in Colorado:
U.S. Senate (Democrats) Michael Bennet: 49%
Andrew Romanoff: 43%
Undecided: 9%
U.S. Senate (Republicans) Jane Norton: 45%
Ken Buck: 43%
Undecided: 12%
Governor (Republicans) Scott McInnis: 41%
Dan Maes: 40%
Undecided: 19%
It looks like all of these races are going to come down to the turnout numbers, with higher turnout favoring Bennet, Norton and McInnis (because these three have the highest name ID in their respective races). The Secretary of State's office will release the latest turnout figures after 3:00 p.m. today, so check back here for that update.
As with all of today's polls, we are not looking for you to indicate your personal preference. We want to know who you realistically believe will win the election tomorrow -- or as we've said before, if you had to bet the deed to your house, who would you choose?
So, who's it going to be? Scott McInnis or Dan Maes? And to add a little zest to the poll, what do you think will happen after the Primary? Will the winner stay in the race or withdraw?
We're getting credible word of some interesting last-minute developments ahead of Tuesday's primary. We want to be clear that this is preliminary, and (of course) dependent on what happens in the election. But it is based on good authority from high-level GOP sources.
There is some thinking in GOP circles that gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis could indeed be persuaded to exit the race following a victory on Tuesday--if he has a say in his successor, and if he were provided with a 'suitable' career landing. If that happens, the story we've heard is that Jane Norton would very much like to be selected as a replacement gubernatorial candidate.
Sources are clear that this does not mean Norton is anticipating a loss in her Senate primary against Ken Buck. What we're talking about here is strictly a contingency plan, but one that Norton is sufficiently interested in pursuing to have started putting out feelers. As you know, of course, polls do show Buck with an enduring lead after weeks of hard-nosed campaigning.
What's truly ironic about this situation is the person emerging as her chief competitor for the selection, Norton campaign manager Josh Penry, remains very much interested by all accounts. Obviously, the vacancy committee who would appoint either of them--itself dependent on a decision from McInnis that others insist he will never make if he wins the primary--remains the biggest "if" in a situation with several unknowns.
A poll follows--file all of this in the same place you've been putting those "Romanoff for Mayor" rumors (but in the "much more likely" category) and we'll see what happens Tuesday.
Earlier we pointed you to a Politico story about former State Senator and former GOP Senate candidate Tom Wiens trying to throw his hat into the ring for Governor, should Republicans figure out a way to replace either Scott McInnis or Dan Maes on the ballot.
From what we've heard lately from top Republicans, however, there is probably no scenario whereby McInnis drops out of the race if he wins the Primary on Tuesday. Why not? The reasons are pretty simple:
Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Maesgot a lot of attention yesterday for his concern over a U.N. plot to force people to ride bicycles and take showers and...something.
We really couldn't even explain the Maes conspiracy theory enough to make fun of it, but as it turns out, neither can Maes. From The Steamboat Pilot:
"What I'm going on is based on limited information," Maes told the Steamboat Pilot & Today on Wednesday. "On the surface, the program looks great. But this is a U.N. program the mayor has signed on to."
Maes said Wednesday that his remarks had been made in the context of a question asking him what strategy he would use to defeat Hickenlooper in the general election.
"I met a woman at a campaign event who handed me a very well-documented portfolio" about the International Council for Environmental Initiatives, Maes said. "I have not had time to study all of the portfolio. I have to learn more about it. We've just scratched the surface." [all bolding is Pols' emphasis]
Uh, yeah. So in other words, Maes is basing his entire conspiracy theory on a bunch of documents that some woman he doesn't know handed him at a campaign event.
At this point, we kind of hope that Maes does get elected Governor. It would be great fun to see him get on a soapbox about something every time a person handed him an unmarked envelope full of nonsense information.
It has come to my attention recently that certain members of the state legislature are actually aliens from the planet Zog. Rest assured, my fellow Coloradans, that this will be investigated thoroughly...as soon as I finish reading this packet of information someone handed me.
FRIDAY UPDATE: Here are the turnout numbers as of 2:45 p.m. today. It looks like a lot of voters are still holding onto their ballots:
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned Democrats: 245,477/ 817,458/ 30%
Republicans: 269,646/ 855,667/ 32% -----
Previous updates and original post after the jump
Today "The Fix" provides its list of the 10 most interesting primary fights in the country, and Colorado's Republicans made it into two of the top three!
Most interesting, however, is that "The Fix" notes that Scott McInnis leads Dan Maes by 15 points in the race for the Gubernatorial nomination, while Jane Norton may now be leading Ken Buck 45-40 in the Senate Primary:
3. Colorado governor (R, Aug. 10): What happens if you hold a primary and the party regulars don't want either candidate to win? That's what's happening in Colorado at the moment with scandal-plagued Scott McInnis (plagiarism) and Dan Maes (campaign finance violations) battling it out. A survey shown to the Fix and conducted by a Republican pollster in the last few days put McInnis ahead by 15. If he manages to win the nomination, there will be a major push by establishment Republicans to push him out. But will McInnis go? (Previous ranking: N/A)...
1. Colorado Senate (R, Aug. 10): Just when Weld County prosecutor Ken Buck looked like he was going to pull off an upset against former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, he made a series of impolitic comments -- the most potentially damaging of which was calling elements of the Tea Party "dumbasses". A poll conducted by a major Republican firm looking in at the governor's race in the last few days showed Norton ahead 45 percent to 40 percent, which suggests that Buck has incurred considerable political damage. (Previous ranking: 3)
Check out this absolute gem of a letter to the editor in this week's Colorado Statesman, which is in reference to this column by Aaron Harber. We thought it was a joke until we read who signed the letter:
I beg your pardon! Comparing Scott McInnis and Bob Beauprez is ludicrous. McInnis' problems are the result of character flaws, whereas the political environment and outside factors contributed as much to Congressman Beauprez's election outcome as any policy issues or campaign strategy.
In the many years I have known Congressman Beauprez, never has anyone had the temerity to impugn his character as Mr. Aaron Harber has just done in the July 23 issue of The Statesman.
The anti-Bush climate during the 2006 campaign was entirely different from the present pro-conservative environment - to suggest otherwise is delusional. Congressman Beauprez's integrity is firmly in place, he has not changed his mind on any values issues; he remains pro-life, conservative, and supports family and friends (did you miss Cory Voorhis's letter about the support he received from the Congressman?).
We've talked before about the negative effects that could affect the entire Republican ticket given their meltdown in the Governor's race. Today MSNBC takes a look at the carnage and offers a sobering historical lesson for Republicans:
There's at least one previous case of GOP intra-party turmoil in one race spilling over into down-ballot races.
"The clearest recent example of a gubernatorial downdraft is Ohio 2006," said Claremont McKenna College political scientist John Pitney. "The incumbent GOP governor (Bob Taft) had been ensnared in scandal and his party's candidate to replace him (Ken Blackwell) was unpopular. Together with bad national trends, trouble at the top of the ticket helped bring down incumbent senator Mike DeWine and cost the GOP a couple of House seats."
Now, obviously those national trends that benefited Democrats in 2006 are not there in 2010. But a race like CD-4 could come down to the wire, and the Republican troubles at the top of the ticket could mean the difference for Rep. Betsy Markey.
UPDATE: To wit, Politico'sKasie Hunt, who we're pretty sure had never once written about--or even heard of--the American Constitution Party before Tom Tancredomade it famous:
Former Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo's rogue bid for governor, already imperiling the GOP's shot at the state's top office, could also dim Republican prospects for knocking off first-term Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey in the 4th Congressional District.
That's because Tancredo's running on the ticket of the conservative American Constitution Party- a minor third-party ballot line that happens to include a candidate, Doug Aden, running in Markey's district. A statewide campaign that draws attention to Aden's party might give him the kind of lift that would make him a spoiler for Republican state Rep. Cory Gardner's campaign...
This is turning into a pretty big deal for this formerly-insignificant minor party--Tancredo's high profile and strong support on the hard right are certain to give the ACP the broadest exposure in its history. And given that "Tea Party" and related groups are already nonplussed by GOP nominee Gardner after his run-in with Steve King a few weeks ago, the danger of Aden peeling off votes from Gardner is bigger than first impressions might suggest.
UPDATE: Republican State Party Chair Dick Wadhamsis none too happy about Tancredo's ultimatum:
I am terribly disappointed in Tom Tancredo's announcement that he has made a backroom deal with a minor political party to run for governor.
Tom Tancredo used the Colorado Republican Party to get elected to the Colorado House of Representatives in the 1970's, to work as a political appointee in the Reagan administration in the 1980's, and to get elected to Congress from 1998 to 2008. But now it appears he wants to destroy Republican chances to win a governor's race after four failed years of Bill Ritter...
...Let there be no mistake about it: Regardless of who our nominee is for governor after the primary, if Tom Tancredo carries through on his threat to run as a third party candidate, he will be responsible for the election of Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper as governor and for other races that will be imperiled as well.
Yup. This should end well.
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We reported last week that Republicans in Colorado were scrambling to figure out how to replace both Scott McInnis and Dan Maes as candidates for Governor, while at the same time looking for someone who could prop up the ticket enough to benefit the GOP Senate candidate and every other candidate down the ballot. It looks like former Rep. Tom Tancredo is going to do everything he can to elbow his way in.
Click after the jump for the full statement from Tancredo, which was just released. He gives McInnis and Maes until Noon on Monday, July 26 (no seriously, that's exactly what he wrote) to publicly promise to withdraw from the race after the August 10 primary results are announced...or else Tancredo will run for Governor under the American Constitution Party platform.
If both McInnis and Maes do withdraw, presumably Tancredo would then be the Republican candidate for Governor.
This all seems a bit melodramatic and silly, but both words pretty well sum up Tancredo's career in general. We'd be surprised to see this from anyone but Tancredo, frankly, though we're still not sure how this helps Republicans.
Demanding a withdrawal by an arbitrary deadline only serves to humiliate McInnis and Maes more than they've already humiliated themselves. McInnis has always been too proud to admit his own errors; we just don't see him bowing out of the race to kiss the feet of one of the Colorado GOP's foremost lunatics.
Tancredo's threat is also pretty meaningless. Neither McInnis nor Maes can possibly win the general election for Governor anyway -- not after their various collection of scandals and misstatements. If McInnis and Maes don't withdraw, and Tancredo runs under the American Constitution Party banner...so what? Tancredo pulls enough votes from the GOP candidate to ensure that they won't win a race they weren't going to win anyway?
Republican Dan Maes, the unknown candidate who may very well be the GOP nominee for governor, has a campaign message centered around his "business experience." We always assumed that meant he had experience running strong businesses that employ lots of people. What he apparently meant all along was that, like many small business owners, he isn't all that good at it.
His tax returns, released on some website called The Constitutionalist Today, show that Maes isn't exactly sleeping on a bed made of gold:
For the years 2000-2004 the Maes' averaged $89,000 per year in income. Maes donated an average of 4.75% of his income per year to the First Baptist Church of Evergreen, Evergreen Christian Outreach, and Goodwill.
In 2005, Maes left his job with Advantage Credit Reporting and started his own small business. Like most small business owners, the first year of income was low, and tax returns reflect that. Listed as a credit services business, the Maes filed personal income at $19,202 for 2005, $20,340 for 2006, and $51,678 for 2007; business gross income at $39,130 for 2005, $182,230 for 2006, and $309,815 for 2007. In 2008 the mortgage industry imploded, and with 97% of Amaesing Credit Solutions clients being mortgage brokers, the business took a big hit. There is a steep decline in 2008 to $11,000, which is to be expected.
Dan Maes earned $11,000 in 2008, which is about $34,000 less than he has paid himself out of his campaign cash just for gas money. It looks like Maes may make more money as an unsuccessful candidate for governor than as an unsuccessful small business owner.
Check out the first TV commercial from the Scott McInnis campaign on YouTube. The theme is a pretty unfortunate one, given his plagiarism scandal: McInnis holds up the pen he says he'll use to veto tax increases -- and he'll really use his own handwriting!
We