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September 01, 2010 04:14 PM UTC

The Great Collapse: All Dems are behind in statewide races (except Hick)

  • 73 Comments
  • by: H-man

(Interesting discussion about what the odds should be – promoted by DavidThi808)

Earlier this week, polling was released in some Federal office races.  Rasmussen has the Republican Ken Buck up over the Democrat Michael Bennet 49 to 45. Magellan has Republican Ryan Frazier over Democrat Ed Perlmutter in CD-7, 40 to 39.  Scott Tipton released a Magellan poll he commissioned showing him up over John Salazar in CD-3, 49 to 43.  Cory Gradner’s race against Betsy Markey in CD-4 has been moved from toss- up to leans Republican by Real Clear Politics. Obama’s governing from the far left seems to have come at a cost.

In the State office races, Magellan polling is now available, which seem to indicate the same trending, except for the Governor’s race.

http://www.magellanstrategies….

The Results are as follows:

Governor: Hick 46, Maes 27, Tank 17

Treasurer: Stapelton 42, Kennedy 38

Atty. Gen.: Suthers 47, Garnett 32

Sec of State: Gessler 37, Buescher 31

Blogger Ben DeGrow over at PPC has a funny, and much more accurate, take on the various races than the big line to the left. http://www.peoplespresscollect…

Some of his more memorable picks are:

Senate Line

(R) Ken Buck (3-1): Being called “extreme” by the NY Times is a shining badge of honor in Colorado, don’t you know?

(D) Michael Bennet (7-1): Wearing Obama like a pair of cement shoes in the East River, and “nothing to show for it”

S.O.S. Line

(R) Scott Gessler (4-1): In the best of years to run as a Republican, his smart campaign advertising affords him some positive momentum heading into November

(D) Bernie Buescher (6-1): Can we have the Ritter appointee explain again why it’s just so hard to send military ballots out on time?

D) Ed Perlmutter (4-1): Having drifted steadily Leftward since he took his seat in Congress, he’s beginning to find it’s a bad year to wear the label “Pelosi-mutter”

(R) Ryan Frazier (5-1): Joe Biden can tell you how hard it is to run against a “mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy”

There is an interesting piece over at Investors Business Daily by Charles Krauthammer  which is on point http://www.investors.com/NewsA… .  He concludes with the following:

The Democrats are going to get beaten badly in November. Not just because the economy is ailing. And not just because Obama over-read his mandate in governing too far left. But because a comeuppance is due the arrogant elites whose undisguised contempt for the great unwashed prevents them from conceding a modicum of serious thought to those who dare oppose them.

Perhaps, some of the Dems will start talking what they are for and how they will turn things around, instead of demonizing their opponents or calling them names, before it is too late.  The unwashed masses deserved no less and will respond in the absence, en mass, no more.

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73 thoughts on “The Great Collapse: All Dems are behind in statewide races (except Hick)”

  1. But isn’t this the same Big Line that correctly predicted every primary this year except for CD-3?

    http://coloradopols.com/showDi…

    I don’t know how to interpret the “odds” numbers, I remember the Guvs explaining that but it’s been awhile. Either way the bottom line is the bottom line. What exactly are you making fun of?

    1. I am making fun of:

      every Dem in a statewide office who is listed as favorites who are behind in the polls;

      Bennet listed over Buck;

      Markey listed over Gardner;

      Salazar and Perlmutter being considered about four times more likely to win when they are not ahead in the polling.

      That, for starters, is what I am making fun of.

      Are you suggesting that the Pols numbers can be defended on any rational basis?

      1. Well, then, Magellan has certainly earned its pay!

        Also, you passively assert that “polling was released in some Federal office races,” and then proceed to lump the 4th District in — you do realize that RCP rankings aren’t “polling”?

      2. I asked, you answered. You can make fun of whatever you want, even if it’s stupid of you.

        I’ve got $50 on John Salazar to answer your shit talk. You putting your money where your mouth is?

          1. the Big Line looks overly optimistic for Democrats in general right now. In particular, Garnett is probably not favored, as Pols would have it, and Markey-Gardner is probably a toss-up at this point. But DeGrow’s line is, while clever, skewed too far the other way.  

            1. In my view, Ben’s lines are less inaccurate than pols.

              If you were to ask anyone who has studied this who is ahead in the Senate race, it is Buck.  He is rated with a greater than 70% chance of taking the seat.  Here is a link to the charts. http://elections.nytimes.com/2…

              This race has had plenty of polling by lots of pollers over a long period of time.  It is not very close.

                    1. You should have to donate under your name to whatever cause he wants you too.  THat’s part of the joy of losing.

                      🙂

                      Let’s see…

                      NRA?

                      SARAHPAC?

                      Hehehehe.

  2. From their website:

    “The Magellan team is a deep and experienced group of individuals with career backgrounds working for the Republican National Committee, political campaigns, state parties, survey research firms, government affairs firms, and conservative grassroots organizations. Our principals have managed some of the most challenging data and technology projects for the Republican Party and conservative movement in the past 18 years…”

    ’nuff said.

    1. employed by those who have no basis for contradicting the message. The poll numbers released by both Rasmussen and Magellan have been in line and not outliers this cycle.  

      Do you have any other polling that disagrees?

      I don’t think so.

      1. I simply copied and pasted what Magellan says about themselves on their own website.  Magellan freely admits they have an agenda, so why do you get so uptight when it is pointed out?  

        I didn’t even mention the polling numbers in question (I gave them exactly the amount of attention I believe they deserve).  I don’t trust polls that are paid for and produced by biased polling firms….from either side of the aisle.  

      3. and is latching on to anything that will assure him that his unrepentant and unimaginative Republicans will win by the sheer repetition of the mantra that it is a Republican year.

        Big deal.

        Democrats survived George Bush and Tom DeLay.  We’ll survive if it is a “Republican Year”.

        The difference is that Democrats actually care about our country and work on pragmatic solutions that benefit us all.  All H-man cares about is how far ahead boy doll Ken is in the polls and how soon the unimaginative Republicans can regain control to finish the job of creating a two tier society.  I’d rather be on the blue team that believes in a meritocracy and giving everyone a chance to succeed.  The polls may favor H-mans candidates but history favors Democratic goals.  These foreign conflicts will come to an honorable conclusion and the efforts of Democrats over the last two years will help the country emerge from this debilitating recession.

        Sometimes good people have to step up and perform at their best even when the outcome is a bad result.  It is honorable effort and Democrats have done their best to help the vulnerable and bring closure to these terrible and unnecessary conflicts.

            2. This is the Republicans election to lose bj and if Dan Maes is any indication of the kind of no talent and no ideas candidates that Republicans are fielding than it might be more difficult to close the deal than you think.  Dewey was ahead of Truman until election night too.

              1. you have nowhere to go but down, despite the problems on the other side of the ticket. Hick can’t pull more than 40% and isn’t well liked outside of Denver.

                1. Meanwhile, is Hickenlooper even in Colorado?  I thought he was still on a beach somewhere far far away from microphones.

                  If he starts campaigning, he’ll move the dials.  But so far, he hasn’t  needed to.

    2. This past weekend I received the Magellan telephone poll on the state treasurer’s race. It was a classic ‘push poll’… that is many of the questions were framed: Would you still vote for Cary Kennedy if you knew such and such bad things about her.

      So, any Magellan poll results being touted, for instance, in the treasurer’s race showing a Repuglican lead are, well, fraudulent.

  3. Look, you can tack on 5-7 points for any candidate with an “R” behind their name. That’s a given this election year. But, what we’ve not seen taken into account is money. Follow the money for all of these races. Bennet should outraise Buck significantly. Perlmutter, Markey and Salazar are way on top of their opponents.

    We don’t know yet whether the GOP candidates will begin to see money flow in based on these polls, but if the Dems are still able to outraise them, you can easily wipe away that 5-7 point bump.

    1. Bennet had about 1 mill more than Buck when the General started.  Buck has already had more than 1/2 mill spent on his behalf by a 527.  That is not money that he “raised”. Bennet has been spending about 800K more per month than Buck on fixed costs.  Unlike Romanoff, Bennet will not be able to outspend Buck significantly.

      As to the Dem house races, it does not matter how much money Markey has and spends. She has voted in a way that makes her toast in her district this cycle. Perlmutter and Salazar have an advantage but the DC dems have a lot of seats to defend and as they are now in credible races their opponents will be getting a bump in funding.  I would say the Salazar race would have a slight advantage to the Dem and the Perlmutter race is too close to call.

        1. The discussion was about financials for the General.  In the Primary I understand he probably had something in the range of $2 million spent on his behals.

          1. Even now that he’s won his primary, he won’t man up and run ads against Bennet himself, he’s still relying on his corporate masters to do it? Glad you cleared that up.

            1. Norton lost because she was associated with Ref C and the DC people. Did Ken Buck run a single ad pointing that out?  No.

              Michael Bennet will lose because he votes to spend money like a drunken sailor.  If Amereican Crossroads is running that ad, why should Buck. He can spend his money saying nice things about Ken Buck.

              Bennet is going to have a problem with the man up stuff, he is having the DSCC run Buck is an extremeist ads.  That is how the game is played.

      2. Campaign Finances

        Michael Bennet as of July 21 Ken Buck as of July 21

        Raised      $7,309,540         $1,148,090

        Spent       $5,880,770         $820,113

        Cash On Hand $1,823,930        $437,529

        Ed Perlmutter as of July 21 Ryan Frazier as of July 21

        Raised      $1,527,120         $872,766

        Spent       $800,837           $623,436

        Cash On Hand $1,283,170        $252,344

        Betsy Markey as of July 21 Cory Gardner as of July 21

        Raised      $2,208,430         $1,298,740

        Spent       $772,163           $573,152

        Cash On Hand $1,507,810        $734,770

        John Salazar as of July 21 Scott Tipton as of July 21

        Raised      $1,211,960         $380,210

        Spent       $431,663           $213,056

        Cash On Hand $1,257,640        $167,402

          1. If you remember Bennet spent quite a bit between then and the primary and had to loan the campaign 300K.  My thought is the number as of the end of the primary, about 1 mill difference.

              2. Buck wins 52%-48%.

                In the primary if you add in 527 money and it was more than 3-1. The Republicans 527’s will not let Bennet buy the seat and the overall money will probably be Bennet 60% to Buck 40%.

                Face it Bennet is an uninspiring first time candidate running in a very difficult year for Democrats.  It is not personal. Those are the facts.  Romanoff would have been the better candidate if he had funding.

        2. But if we are basing our conclusions on numbers that haven’t been updated for 6 weeks, we may as well assume Bennet will out raise Buck by the same margin he did in the primary. Therefore:

          From 01/01/10 to 07/12/10 (30 weeks) Buck raised $1,260,000 and Bennet raised $7,704,000, or $42K and $256K per week, respectively. Meaning, as of today Buck should have $689,000 COH and Bennet should have $3,359,000 COH. Even with an additional $500K from 527s, Buck trails by over $2 million… already.

          Or, in other words, let’s just wait for the numbers to come out, because what they had as of 7/21 is meaningless.

          1. True, though both Buck and Bennet have been raising money since last year, not 1/01/10. Buck’s fundraising has been anemic for nearly a year and a half.

            1. I found it odd that the FEC only listed numbers posted since 1/1/10. Turns out reading is hard, and that should be 1/1/09, making my random ass math futile.

              Point still being, money will play a huge factor, and we don’t yet know how fundraising has gone. Let’s wait until the quarterly reports come out and then we can start talking.

        2. * Money in campaigns

          * Carbon-dating evidence dinosaurs were not 5000-year old pets of Noah

          * Global warming evidence

          * First Amendment right to build a mosque

          Nothing matters except his cult leaders’ non-falsifiable assertions that 2+2=7 and that any contrary evidence (like fossils, climate data, etc.) are a “hoax.”

  7. give everyone who signs up a set amount, and let us wager be capitalistic about it. Then we can lay it to rest.  Which sideis better with ‘real’ stakes.

  9. Republicans are split between two candidates, of course Hick is up!  

    A bigger concern should be CD 3.  Should be a walk since Salazar has a reported war chest. Working with Vets, the complaint  keep hearing is customer service out Salazar offices.  I have heard from VA docs over the last year and a half that they used to be able to call his office for help and now they get no follow through. Vets in general are unhappy because they are turned away.  Hear the office is often closed in Pueblo and Alamosa.  Read the GJ Sentinel and you’d think there would be more support for a sitting Congressman, but it appears the opposite is true.  Some in Walsenburg feel betrayed by the changes to the Clear Act. Campaign  legislation. Campaign money helps, but customer service matters too.    

      1. Remember that folks like MADCO are newer to politics (MADCO said they came in with the Obama wave).

        It will take a few hard knocks but they will get it eventually.

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