“The future is called ‘perhaps’, which is the only possible thing to call the future. And the important thing is not to allow that to scare you.”
–Tennessee Williams
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I hope the death count is low.
I hope hospitals – permanent and temporary – are effective and safe.
and so on
I hope.
The curve in NYC is pretty … well, New York New York.
doubling every 50 hours and accelerating.
the curve in Colorado is flattish.
flatten the curve – save lives (and resources)
Stay home and perhaps you will survive.
I am not an expert, but to me the next phase of this crisis is obvious. New York City is bad and is going to get worse. Trump, being Trump, is doing little to nothing to help and is suggesting the worst is over, blue skies ahead, Happy Easter. Even if the curve is flattening for California, Washington, Colorado, etc., New York is becoming to the US what Lombardy is to Italy. Unlike Hunan, China, I do not believe we can quarantine off the entire State of New York or the entire City. People are leaving and they will continue to leave. People are not going to stay in a place where they reasonably believe that will get sick and not be able to receive treatment. Trump will continue to deflect responsibility, leave the states to duke it out amongst themselves, and this crisis (and the deaths) will continue.
shite
That sounds like a plausible analysis
I think individual health departments could impose restrictions on NY travelers.
But I don't know how.
Florida wants to – not sure how that would work
Right now they are requesting travelers from NY self-quarantine for 14 days. Good luck with that. In times of crisis, a significant percentage of people are going to do what they feel is best for them, and not "sacrifice" their own self-interest.
And it was Florida that refused to close the beaches for spring break guaranting that the infection would be carried home. What blundering hypocrites.
WOTD2 from Calculated Risk: "A 40-Day Plan to Start Recovery"
Donald Trump continues to spout dangerous nonsense, but early this morning, the McConnell Friends and Family Bonanza Bill was rewritten so that it is slightly less of a executive bonus and stock dividend protection bill, and put more money into actually saving lives and preserving the economic security of hundreds of millions of Americans.
The few MAGAs I haven't defriended yet are going crazy early this morning on my FB feed. Are you SURE "that crazy b**** Nancy" didn't slip in funding for abortions in the last minute? Cuz, you know, "evil Democrats". <sigh>
Didn't they see that there were additional tax credits for buying more bullets for the Pro-Lifers?
But Mexico is paying for this, right?
Amazing.
I got family and neighbors that are described here.
I'm sure some of you do too.
Conservatives who want nothing to change…. yeah. I get that.
"A tube that did nothing but eat and poop is your oldest ancestor."
https://bgr.com/2020/03/25/oldest-animal-ancestor-humans-history/
I do wonder …how do worms reproduce?
???
. . . having money probably helps?
bam!
you back!
it isn't pretty.
lol
No doubt
Running the country, and everything else, “like a business” . . .
. . . when it’s
just in timeway too late.At least Ford has stepped up and has the means to quickly ramp up production of respirators.
Tesla is already delivering ventilators…
flame thrower optional
Like Ford and GM, Tesla is still figuring out the design and prepping for manufacturing in the US.
But Elon Musk did the right thing by ordering a batch directly from China:
WOTD from Rachel Bitecofer: “2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions“
Bitecofer is the political science researcher who realized that partisanship dominates the electoral process, and successfully predicted Trump’s 2016 win over Hillary Clinton. For 2020 she is projecting Dem 289, Rep 181, and Toss-up 68.
In the Toss-up column are Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Iowa. Demographic shifts in the Florida electorate would include voting by felons, and the Republican efforts to kill off older people by promoting coronavirus parties.
Bitecofer's article is the best thing I've read in the past month. She is not a fan of Klobuchar (electorally speaking), because Rural, white non-college educated Trump voters are not a good target audience for Democrats. Instead, she believes the Democrats need to activate the progressive wing, but more specifically, College Educated Women, Millenials and Gen Z. Those are the groups that make up the Suburban Democratic base from 2018.
I'm hoping for Kamala Harris for VP. Do it Joe.
Gretchen Whitmer
Back of the envelope calculations:
If 10% of coronavirus cases are serious and 1% are fatal…
The US has a population of 330 million. If 30% get sick, then we’ll have 10 million people in the hospital and 1 million deaths. Colorado with 6 million people would have 180,000 hospitalized and 18,000 deaths.
What is the average hospital stay? A week?
Lowering the curve and slowing the virus so that infections are spread over six months (26 weeks), maybe we can lower the hospital count in Colorado to 7,000 beds.
Does that mean that Colorado hospitals need 7,000 ventilators?
It means:
a) Battlefield triage
b) The wealthy will find a way to buy a ventilator to increase their odds of survival.
c) Trump (and hence all Republicans) will blame Obama.
aj!
Until now I didn't realize you are a PhD in mathematics.
Nicely done.
We should convert the convention center NOW.
Likewise, any other publicly funded indoor space (s)
– Auraria
– UC Boulder
etc
I hope you’re including the “publicly-funded“ skyboxes at Coors field, whatever the hell that football stadium’s called, and, of course, Kroenke’s Pepsi Center?
Also the publicly-funded tax-exempted churches?
(I’d just love to see all those MAGA-hatted megachurch faith-healing science deniers having to broadcast their vacation island fundraising appeals over an auditorium of the incapacitated and ventilated.)
I am confident the Churches will have volunteered all they can long before I suggest anything.
Where I want to be hospitalized is a west side room at the convention center Hilton
Although Sky box at Coors would be ok, as long as the medical staff are better than the Rockies
Imagine the costs of these hospitalizations. No wonder they triage out the old and incurable. There is no way that the retired have the earning ability to recover the cost of their hospitalization through new payroll taxes.
GG, I hope that you were being sarcastic- but you seem serious.
FYI, “the retired” already paid for their retirement and medical care needs by a lifetime of work. (average 3K a year into SS via payroll deduction x avg 50 years = $150K, more via state and local Medicare taxes)
In the case of female retirees, that was often two jobs- the paid work at 70% of male earnings, ( during my work life – 79% now), and the unpaid “second shift” of household labor supporting the “real” male wage earners, and raising the next generation.
So yeah, please refrain from this not-funny speculation about triage and letting the olds die, “bagging a granny”, etc. This granny takes offense.
Triage based on probable survivability is a grim aspect of the future covid19 worst case scenario. Hospitals won’t have enough beds or ventilators. Care will be rationed. There will be formal or informal “death panels”. But these brutal determinations should be made case by case, not by demographics.
Thanks kwtree. Killing off the old through neglect is a realistic possibility if this thing goes super nova. Overwhemled staff making spontanious decisions regarding who will live and who will die. Hope they won't have access to politican affiliations. It would be very tempting to just start pulling the plug on forever Trumpers.
You have to admire the discipline, coordination and dissemination of the new Republican talking points:
‘I’d Rather Die’: Glenn Beck Urges Older Americans To Work Despite Coronavirus
To be fair- I agree with him this time.
I also would rather he die than kill the country.
LMAO…me too.
Joe Biden Insult Bot
Nice pick-me-up.
We Don’t Know
by the Strumbellas
https://youtu.be/UqDfscH3TQQ
Oh, we don’t know the roads that we’re heading down
But we all know if we’re lost, then we’ll find a way
We don’t know if we leave, will we make it home
But we all know, if there’s hope, then we’ll be okay
Oh, we don’t know the roads that we’re heading down
But we all know know if we’re lost, then we’ll find a way
We don’t know if we leave, will we make it home
But we all know, if there’s hope, then we’ll be okay
“in all our searching, the only thing we’ve found that makes the emptiness bearable is each other.” Carl Sagan
I’ll admit I didn’t have “gays and environmentalists causing worldwide pandemic” on my 2020 bingo card.
Trump Cabinet's Bible teacher says gays among those to blame for COVID-19