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October 24, 2010 09:24 PM UTC

The Tightest Race(s) in America

  • 39 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

As 9NEWS’ Adam Schrager reports, all the presumptions about how this long U.S. Senate campaign would unfold, the unknown millions of dollars, the infighting on both sides, and the most intense media warfare in the history of Colorado–from TV to talk radio to this blog–have led to:

Colorado’s candidates for U.S. Senate are tied in a new 9NEWS/Denver Post poll with just over a week to go until the votes are counted on Election Day.

The phone poll of 621 likely voters conducted by Survey USA from Oct. 19 to Oct. 21 shows both Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colorado) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R-Colorado) with support of 47 percent.

Five percent of those surveyed say they support another candidate and one percent remains undecided. The margin of error for the poll is 4 percent.

Three weeks ago, Buck led Bennet in the last 9NEWS/Denver Post poll by 5 percentage points, 48-43, primarily on a huge 19-point edge (53-34 percent) among self-described independent voters. That same voting bloc now supports Bennet over Buck, 46-44 percent.

Men are supporting Buck by a 53-42 percent margin while women are supporting Bennet by a 53-40 percent margin.

This poll shows again the continuing downward trajectory for GOP Senate candidate Ken Buck, emerging as the biggest story of this October election season. Now down thirteen points with women, with the aggregate weight of stories about Buck’s “woman problems” added to the host of other issues he has “Buckpedaled”–not to mention the firm establishment of “Buckpedal” as the defining verb of the race, once it appeared on Meet the Press we’d say it was canonized–Buck is now losing among decisive independent voters, too. Buck has failed to respond adequately to what has proven to be a withering focus on his strident social conservatism, and the weakness of his response left him vulnerable to larger questions from independent voters about his integrity.

It is exactly what we told you would happen.

In other SurveyUSA polling news, John Hickenlooper is still going to be the next Governor, so please stop fretting. Even without the ten-point lead Hickenlooper shows in this poll over Tom Tancredo, Tancredo does not have the fieldable resources to compete with the Democratic ballot chase down the stretch: it’s why we’ve never gotten worked up about this race since Scott McInnis’ collapse. That, and our abiding faith that the people of Colorado just won’t do something as absurd and calamitous as elect Tancredo Governor. The other statewide races, though, are very close, with Democrats feeling good about the tightening numbers generally–and a continuing hope pollsters are making assumptions about “likely voters” that won’t materialize.

For our purposes, this poll tracks close enough to our Big Line to necessitate no changes. Which we feel pretty good about. Everything depends now, all the way down the ticket, on the field operations now chasing down every ballot. The success of those field efforts–not the polls, and decreasing with each passing day now the opportunity for new revelations to affect races as thousands of ballots are marked–will decide these elections, and it’s going down to the wire in what will remain a decidedly purple Colorado on November 3rd. And with the top of the GOP ticket in disarray, and Buck in apparent freefall, Colorado Democrats have an opportunity to close the deal on an election night that could shock the conventional wisdom, and defy national trends.

This next week, folks. On both sides. This is why you do politics.

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39 thoughts on “The Tightest Race(s) in America”

  1. So it comes down to get out the vote.  And the Dems have a much better GOTV.  Republicans are paralyzed with no effective gubernatorial candidate and beset with ultra-right wing Tea Party zealots who tear down the party but don’t work for its candidates.

      The Republican party is going to prove once more that it never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

      Final score: Bennet 51, Buck 48, minor candidates and write ins 1 pct.

    1. 10 days before the primary?

      As I recall they had Romanoff up by 3 over Bennet.  Did Bennet really make up 11 points in 10 days, or was the poll a little off?

      I think Buck is going to win but to be fair this general is probably very difficult for anyone to poll.

      At the same time SurveyUSA polls the Gov race and has Hick up 10 while Magellan has him up by 1. I would think Hick up by 4 or 5 is the right way to look at that race.

      Whether Buck is up by 3 as the Ipsos poll that came out in the middle of the week indicates, or it is tied as SurveyUSA suggests are both within the margin of error for each.

      Buck is favored by people that analyze and study the polls.  

      It now turns on turn out.  The Republicans appear to be coming out in margins in excess of their registration advantage. The Dems seem to be coming out at about their registration numbers.  The Independent vote has not been showing up.  

      What this means is we are going to be getting a lot of conflicting info in the next 10 days, some sincere, alot not, and it takes some thought to discern which it is.  I would suggest the blind faith that the race is tied based on this one poll is more a function of hope than thought.  

      2. Buck has been dropping like a rock, blowing a five to eight point lead in earlier polls to about dead even now.

          While momentum is with Bennet, the real test is turnout.

          But it is universally recognized that the Democratic GOTV effort is better than the

        Republican. And so far, we’re making our numbers work.

          And, no Buck is no longer favored by poll analysts, his numbers have gone to far south.

           I tend to think Hick will beat your 4-5 margin, but only because in the end longtime republicans will stay on the R line rather than defect to Tancredo.  

  2. I think the term “Buckpedal” was first used on this site on August 16.  In response to a ColoPols article called, “Buck Backpedals” re: the 17th Amendment. “And another thing” responded: “Buckpedals?”

    I shamelessly stole “Buckpedal” for a DP letter to the editor published September 19.

    But, let’s give credit to “And another thing” for the first apparent use of the perfect putdown.

    2. So what’s with all the autofellatio from Pols lately. The latest example is in the above post: “It is exactly what we told you would happen.”

      Wow! You predicted the race tightening after a bunch of Buck boners? Who’d a thunk it? And you predicted someone would run an attack spot on Buck and rape? Amazing!

      I’d give you props if you had predicted something that was not the conventional wisdom, but nothing posted of late qualifies.

      Seriously, self-congratulation is just a very public form of insecurity. It belittles you.

      If you’re really as great as you keep telling us, then you wouldn’t need to keep telling us. You run a nice site. Chill on the braggadacio, please.

      /rantover

        1. It ain’t over til it’s over! Every vote counts! It all comes down to who has the best ground game! Buck is so prone to gaffes that he’ll cut back on public appearances! Bennet is trying to attract women! Tancredo can’t win! Maes won’t quit! Hick is taking a page from Dean Smith’s playbook and running a four-corner (stalling) offense!

          How am I doing?  

            1. Republicans will attack on spending! You have to buy at least 700 points to move numbers! Paid media is nice, but it’s better with earned media!

              This is fun!

    1. though all the lawyers and staff from around the country spending a month in Denver would be good for the economy.

      That would turn out to be the most benefical effect of the Buck candidacy

    2. wins by enough to avoid a recount.  Another fun number from the 9news/DenverPost poll was 9% for Maes, with Hick still leading by 10%.  

      Won’t the repub leaders have egg on their faces if all they get for urging people to vote for Tanc is minor party status until after the next gubernatorial? And won’t Cable get a lot of miles out of covering how the obscure ACP got major party status in Colorado thanks to incredible state GOP cluelessness in a supposedly banner year for all Rs? It would make an interesting entry in the allegedly brilliant Wadham’s resume: biggest state party chair loser of the 2010 election cycle or maybe all time.

      1. and for the first time, I’m beginning to think the rs won’t make ten percent.

         In the end, I still expect long time ”

        yellow dog” republicans to vote Republican in large enough numberrs to stay above ten percent — and ensure Tancredo’s defeat.

         But it’s going to be close on that score, anyway.

        1. But wouldn’t it be fun if we were wrong?  I can just imagine Chris Matthews carrying on about it. In any case, the ACP gets to be major here and probably nowhere else. That’s a story, too.

  4. Why aren’t you weighing in with your “proof” of an enormous Buck win in the making?

    And are you ready to double our bet on gov:

    I get Hick, you get whatever is left in the field that decent people won’t associate with, Maes, Tancredo, write ins for Stalin, whatever.

    😉

  6. They increased Buck’s lead from 1% to 1.3% after this poll came out. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/  

    They also have Harry Reid losing by only .7% so I guess that race would be closer.

    Do you think there might be significance to the fact that Republicans have about 5% more early votes this year than the Dems when the Dems had a couple percent more than the Republicans in 08?

    Nah, I am sure it doesn’t mean a thing.  Pleasant dreams.

      1. Plus, in a supposed wave election year, in a purple swing state, how bad of a candidate must buck be not to have a huge lead by now? I mean to droop from an 8 point lead to tied.

        Perhaps insulting rape victims, gays and flip flopping on everything else, might not be the brightest way to run a campaign.

    2. I think Bennet’s going to win by about 4.

      Why does Bennet keep rising while Buck is stuck at 46-47%? Those undecideds and independents sure don’t seem to like Buck. Why is that? Is it because they’re women? Is it because he doesn’t like them?

      1. though suburban and independent women are increasingly skeptical that Ken Buck has a grip on their reality. The question sxp asks is key: Why can’t Ken Buck clear 46-47% in a wave year? Only a deeply flawed candidate would be having so much trouble this year.

    3. that the reason Bucks lead went up from 1.0 to 1.3 was because they took PPP (which had Bennet +1) out to replace it with the SurveyUSA poll that had it dead even, right?  The trend remains the same regardless.  You tried to call me out about how RCP does it’s “poll of polls” but fell victim to the same critiques.

      1. They changed the outlier older PPP poll which had Bennet doing better than the other polling with a more recent SurveyUSA poll which had Bennet doing better than the other polling.  And because in this most favorable poll Bennet did less well than in the last Bennet most favorable poll, Buck’s lead went up.

        If there are four polls in the last week and the range is tied, Buck+3. Buck+1, Buck+2 and there is about a 4% margin of error, the logical conclusion is Buck is up between 1-2%. The ColoradoPols conclusion is to take the most favorable Bennet poll as the truth and ignore all other information because it plays to their delusional theme.

  7. I ended up talking to Senator Bennet for a couple of minutes while he was waiting to make his speech. He mostly talked about how he thinks the vote will go and was clearly pretty comfortable that the odds are in his favor. He did not come across as taking it easy, but that he thinks it is breaking his way in these last 2 weeks. Definitely not frantic.

    Now there’s nothing that says a candidate is 100% accurate. But Bennet does seem to be one who takes a realistic view of things and he has access to more info than almost anyone else. He also said he is going to every event, making every fundraising call, talking to every person. He is 100% committed that on Nov 3rd he can say he gave it everything he has.

    So if I had to place a bet today, I’d place it on Bennet.

          1. And if I had hit him on his statements on gay marriage and his votes on the financial bill, then you would have been mad at me for being negative and helping Ken Buck in the final week.

            I also don’t think fund raisers are the place to do that. Doing so would have reflected badly on the host who invited me.

            If Bennet is reelected, there will be plenty of opportunity to talk to him.

            1. You had one chance and blew it.

              Oh, and

              If Bennet is reelected, there will be plenty of opportunity to talk to him.

              Isn’t that sort of counter to your reasoning that it’s necessary to smear him BEFORE the election?

    2. I do believe that Bennet will pull it out in the end, but candidates have to believe in themselves and their chances all the way through election day no matter the odds to keep doing what they do.  You won’t find many candidates this close to election who won’t say that they think they’re on a path to victory but it will take a lot of work over the next n days.

  8. That many of the people polled have already voted and Buck falling late probably won’t help enough because the ballots of so many are already cast.  

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