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November 15, 2010 04:41 PM UTC

Monday Open Thread

  • 97 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“How empty is theory in the presence of fact.”

–Mark Twain

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97 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread”

    2. In science you start with a hypothesis and see if the facts support it.

      In business you start with a general idea/plan and see if the market will support it.

      In chess you develop a strategy and move your pieces to support it.

      By examining facts you may find your theory is correct or incorrect, but one always starts with a theory.

      And don’t contradict Twain, it’s not American!

      1. His first autobiography comes out soon. Its part 1 of 3, with the next two installments over the next five years. One of the most prodigious (and acerbic) minds!

        A must read, I think.

      2. What you do is from the known facts you come up with a hypothesis that explains those facts. Then you look for tests that your hypothesis would predict a specific outcome and run those new tests.

        In business you look at what the market wants and from that try to find a need that’s not being addressed. You then push out a product as quickly and cheaply as possible to see if the market is interested.

        In both cases, not making use of existing knowledge will pretty much guarantee failure. Like the Supply Siders who say don’t bother looking at what we know about economics, lets just try this.

        1. Facts that aren’t proven are characterizations of certain ideas based on observations. A hypothesis is developed, experiments performed and facts are then proven or not.

          One of your problems, Dave, IMHO, is you take a look at the facts and then devise a theory. Here’s what creates jobs…here’s what we need to do for education…all based on the latest studies and latest article you read.

          This may work well for policy and many foundations or other big brains may do it too.

          Problem is, politics.

          In politics, facts and theories about policy are somewhat secondary.

          Example:

          Policy/Fact/Theory = To bring Colorado up to date on transportation needs, we need a billion dollars. We need to raise the gas tax and focus additional revenue from HUTF, severance tax, federal mineral lease and other funding streams to accomplish this.

          Politics = Ain’t gonna fucking happen.

          Looking at facts in absence of theory is like trying to smoke a joint without the paper. All you get is a lot of smoke and frustration.

      3. Just to clarify a couple of things.

        1) Actual practice of any trade is seldom as simple as the elementary school explanation.

        In other words, the scientific method can be described as a cycle. Nothing is first. You can arbitrarily pick a point to start from and work backwards and forwards from there. For example, some observations are made because a theory suggests these observations may be fruitful and/or to test a hypothesis. (This suggests some phenomena are not “observed,” or their significance is not understood, until they are predicted by theory or hypothesis.)

        2) Likewise in business. To think that business works by first assessing “what the market wants” is beguiling, but more often wrong than right. This “explanation,” if true, would suggest that marketing/advertising is ineffective. In reality, much of business is realizing that you produce something too cheaply or in too great of quantities, and thus the business of business is to “create demand.” (This is exactly what is happening right now with natural gas markets – we have a surplus of cheap natural gas so industry and government are trying to artificially create “demand” for this product.)

        3) In neither economics, nor business, can we effectively test hypotheses. It is either not possible or not ethical to do the necessary experiments. Instead of experiments, economists and their ilk draft stories. “Just so” stories that are quite entertaining and have enough “truth” to them that we can get politicians and other citizens to make decisions contrary to their own interests.

        Speaking of chicken & eggs, it’s lunch time…

    3. Confusing theory and hypothesis in the common vernacular.  “I have a theory” refers to a hypothesis.  You test your hypothesis against facts, and a body of knowledge is developed about subject X, which is then described as the “theory of X.”

      And yes, hypothesis must come first, as experiments are usually tested against the null hypothesis; i.e there is no difference with intervention Y.

  2. Here you have it ladies and gentlemen…

    http://abcnews.go.com/Technolo…

    And here’s why.

    …. two scientists contend human travel to Mars could happen much more quickly and cheaply if the missions are made one-way. They argue that it would be little different from early settlers to North America, who left Europe with little expectation of return.

    They believe exploration and settlement would happen faster if inhabitants can’t return to earth.  

    Maybe we should have make a list and pick the mostly likely candidates we’d like to send to Mars…and beyond.

    2. But you can’t argue with the numbers.  A mission to Mars would be much cheaper if they didn’t have to build in the capability of coming back.

      I’m just wondering how they get the rocks back.

    1. year round non-campaign camapign ads we all have to look forward to now. And we thought it was over Nov. 2nd.  No such luck.  I’ve seen this on TV already, meant to keep us all mad at those spendthrift Dems and too establishment type Rs, I suppose. Will it ever be safe to watch TV, listen to radio or hit our favorite blogs again?  

      1. And the Democrats damn well better start going on offense on this, or we’re in for a miserable two years.

        After yesterday, I wish they’d take a lesson from the Donkos.

          1. but stuff happens. With an electorate that doesn’t like either party, that didn’t particularly like the one they just voted into the House majority while they were doing it, and swings according to which party they’re most disgusted with at the time, what 2012 is going to look like is anyone’s guess at this point. It certainly didn’t look quite this bad for Dems a year ago. It may not look so hot for Rs a year and a half from now.  

  5. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of “people”.

    McALESTER – Members of a Kansas church that protests at military funerals may have found themselves in the wrong town Saturday.

    Shortly after finishing their protest at the funeral of Army Sgt. Jason James McCluskey of McAlester, a half-dozen protesters from Westboro Baptist Church in Topeka, Kan., headed to their minivan, only to discover that its front and rear passenger-side tires had been slashed.

    To make matters worse, as their minivan slowly hobbled away on two flat tires, with a McAlester police car following behind, the protesters were unable to find anyone in town who would repair their vehicle, according to police.

          1. I was looking for the one that had the “God hates figs” guy but apparently someone ripped the idea off at the Jon Stewart rally and now Flickr is overrun with photos of that guy at the rally rather than the Phelps counter-protester.

            1. He didn’t know what a disgusting sack of shit Phelps is and made an honest mistake.  Sir Robin is not and has never been anti-gay.  His screwed up on this post, but was quick to buck-pedal when he found out who Phelps was.  

        2. The article posted simply gives the name of the church.

          My conclusion came from reading the very clear “protests at military funerals”. Given the DADT dispute, I can see where the ant-gay stuff comes into play.

          My bad. Uninformed on this issue, yes, an “idiot”….my postings speak for themselves, and you have stooped to a new low.

            2. not even giving Sir Robin a chance to explain. Anyone who has read any of his comments had to know that he was laboring under a misconception. Then he comes out and clarifies that, yes he was, that he didn’t know who Phelps and his church were and you’re still on his case? Come on, Thilly. I wouldn’t have expected that from you.  

    4. and if this collection of God’s Madmen come to town, I intend to exercise my 1st Amendment rights just upwind of these asshats.

      “Jesus thinks you’re a Jerk,” Mr Phelps….

      Congrats to the people of McAlester for pulling out those “We reserve the right….” signs for just the right occasion.

      1. We all make mistakes — even God.  According to George Burns — God, in Oh God — he screwed up with the avocado.  

        I made the pit too big.

          SR is anti-military, sure, but not anti-gay.  

            1. But lacks the sophistication to come to that conclusion. As I’ve said to friends, Google makes everyone “smart” but it takes more than what google does to make everyone brilliant.

              BTW, I consider you brilliant.

          2. I can’t think of a single news outlet or commentator, both broadcast and online, that hasn’t talked about these idiots over the last five years.  You must have had your head in the sand to not know about them.

            And anti-war?  You wouldn’t know it from your lack of postings on it over the last couple of years.  Here’s to 2014, until the next Obama extension of the war.

    6. protested at my little ole church here in Denver a few years ago. Operation Save America I think they were called. When I refused to take their literature as I drove into the parking lot, one of the women in the group started yelling hysterically at me that I and my children (who were in the back of my car) were going to burn for eternity in Hell.

      The entire group of them yelled obscenities at me and the rest of our congregation because in their warped view, that is what Jesus would have them do- wish ill will and evil upon others. They condemned the gays in our church and everyone else in my church who was supportive of GLBTQ rights and issues as damnable people

      I couldn’t believe their effrontery to harass us at our chosen place of worship! They even had the audacity to come into our sanctuary, and many in our congregation were terrified that they may have been armed and willing to commit violence against us.

      These are the people we are up against. Merely pretending they are not out there or that they are fringe does not acknowledge their propensity for violence against those who do not share their radical ideology and theology. They are dangerous people and have and will kill for their beliefs. They need to be marginalized and stopped before they commit more murders in churches and other places.

  6. http://twitter.com/grossdm

    the painful thing about this Obama press conference isn’t Obama’s answers. It’s the questions.

    10:48 AM Nov 3rd via web

    It amazes me that supposed ‘real’ journalists ask snarky, gossipy type questions during press conferences, whether with Pres. Obama or Robert Gibbs.  So many of their questions are a total waste of time and press conference time is so limited.

    Dan also has lots of ‘non-end of the world data:

    more non end of the world data. factory orders up in Sept. http://reut.rs/canzE0

    8:10 AM Nov 3rd via bitly

    Dan does a business column on yahoonews

    3. the loss was so traumatic? Not that I’m issuing any engraved invitations. The decrease in annoying nattering is quite soothing. Still, way to go, Beej.  

  8. Curious all of the Counties are open today.

    Any new numbers official or unofficial from

    Benefield/Ramiers,Nicholson/Leonard, Morse/Hill/, Curry/Wilson

    Someone had to be counting and the campaigns were all there watching.  Someone has to have some new numbers.

    1. Curry put out an update that Garfield and Gunnison counties were starting counting today, but Pitkin and Eagle aren’t starting at all until tomorrow.

      I know she was planning on sending watchers, but she hasn’t posted anything.  I suspect she won’t until Tuesday or Wednesday night.  So unless someone here was actually watching, it’s unlikely there are results to post.

      On a side note; regardless of outcome I expect her to run in two years.

      http://kathleencurry.org/?p=1558

  9. Contrary to the beliefs of hand-wringers and trolls of days gone by:

    http://www.politico.com/news/s…

    In Colorado, Sen. Michael Bennet won reelection by less than 16,000 votes over Republican prosecutor Ken Buck – a tea party-backed conservative with down-the-line anti-abortion views – after defeating him handily among women.

    The gender gap was an obvious place for Colorado Democrats to focus their attention, after Buck’s divisive primary with former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, and polls showed Buck with persistent weaknesses among female voters.

    In one message-testing survey, the Democratic-aligned group Project New West gave voters information about Buck’s views on a number of subjects and 24 percent of respondents said that his stance on abortion – “Buck opposes abortion, even in the case of rape and incest,” the poll said – was the single biggest reason they wouldn’t vote for him.

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