Heck of a story in today’s Durango Herald from their DC-based intern Tamar Hallerman–outgoing Rep. John Salazar, bested by GOP “Tea Party” upstart Scott Tipton in an election that Salazar didn’t expect to lose (more on that in a moment), is considering returning the favor in 2012.
U.S. Rep. John Salazar, D-Manassa, said Wednesday that he is considering a 2012 rematch against Scott Tipton to win back the House seat he lost in November.
In an interview outside the House chamber after a vote, the outgoing congressman speculated about his future.
“We’re thinking that we might run again in two years, but who knows? I’m keeping all options open,” he said. “We’ve been offered a possibility of serving at many other places, or there’s a great possibility of going back to the ranch and raising cattle.”
When asked for comment, Tipton said he was not aware of Salazar’s consideration to run again…
We mentioned in our wrap-up of 2010 election losers that Rep. Salazar probably should feel worse about his loss to Tipton than, for example, Rep. Betsy Markey’s defeat by Cory Gardner. Most people we’ve talked to about this race agree that Salazar was very, very late to realize the threat posed to him by…well, not Tipton personally as much as the “GOP wave” in general. Salazar’s local popularity and low-key charm weren’t enough to counterbalance the generic anti-incumbent anger that swept through the country last month, but we still think that’s because he didn’t respond vigorously to the changing situation. By the time Salazar realized what was happening, and revamped his campaign with capable staff like Tara Trujillo, it was already too late.
But we’ve also said several times that Rep.-elect Tipton’s campaign was laughable by any competent standard, replete with totally absurd policy prescriptions and flip-flops. We believed then, and still think, that Tipton could only have won this seat with a tidal wave of momentum behind him–a crutch he won’t have in 2012. So you bet: depending on what happens with redistricting, there’s every reason to think that Salazar could take this seat right back from Tipton; and if he decides to try, this could easily be the most interesting race in Colorado next season.
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what were the total votes cast in 2008 v 2010?
I seriously think the “Wave” was really nothing more than lower voter turnout among Dems. with President Obama being the “wedge issue” drawing rethugs to the polls.
does anyone have an accurate source for the total voter numbers? to do a comparison.
Wouldn’t that be something? Some of us 3rd CDers, even a few of us who lean left, became a little tired of Salazar. New blood, please.
Because I think that Democrats in Washington are so screwing up right now that 2012 will be another tidal wave for the Republicans. Blech!
much more of an upset than Markey’s. He had been elected previously by large margins and had a great reserve of personal popularity while Markey had been elected once in a race much tighter than any of Salazar’s. Also agree that he failed to realize this wasn’t going to be the cakewalk he was growing used to. But I think chances for Salazar winning it back or even making a firm decision to try are slim. Once lost, a congressional seat is tough to get back and, even at the primary level, Dems have a history of being more reluctant than Rs to grant second chances.
That’s not true. Markey won her seat with a 12-point margin and Salazar won by only 4 points when he first ran. He racked up the big margins when he ran for re-election against two hapless challengers, Scott Tipton and Wayne Wolf. A lot depends on what the 3rd District looks like after redistricting, of course.
True only of his subsequent races. He had been so successful since, I kind of forgot. But still, he had a track record of having established staying power while Markey was a newbie without such a track record. To me, that made Salazar’s collapse more surprising. And it was quite a collapse. He lost decisively.
Do you think there is a really a strong chance that Salazar will choose to run again and that if he does he will have a good chance of A) winning the primary and B) winning the seat? I just don’t see it happening, regardless of redistricting.
I can’t see who would challenge him in a primary, BC, and he’d have to raise a ton to counteract the outside spending. The US Chamber poured a ton of money in on Tipton’s behalf and there’s no reason to think it won’t do it again.
Unfortunately, the GOP counties on the Western Slope listen to Rush and watch Faux News exclusively. They fully believe the GOP will bring them all ponies if they just cut taxes.
I don’t know if two years of Tipton will be enough to show that he can’t provide ponies.
(I can’t believe I just typed that)
Salazar didn’t bring us many ponies either.
And I NEVER got his local office on the first phone call.
The only people I’ve talked to who got through were veterans. It didn’t do any good for anybody else. I talked to two or three people who were so frustrated with the GJ office they called Pueblo, where they actually got some help.
Tipton is promising ponies. Salazar never did.
Marilyn Musgrave’s negatives were, of course, much more considerable than either Salazar or any of his opponents. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
Salazar won the first time when Bush was on the ballot (winning Colorado handily) and Markey when Obama was on the ballot — so Salazar’s victory against those headwinds shouldn’t be minimized.
Neither should his loss. CD3 lost faith in him. Being totally AWOL during the the healthcare debate didn’t help him.
Anyone want to speculate on what changes to the CD 3 boundaries might result from redistricting? How the new district is designed may play a significant role in the candidacies.
would be wise to not become a two time loser. His chances at making decent money, while still enjoying his ranch are much better with only one loss behind him.
of Reps who lost re-election after serving two or more terms, only to win back re-election in the next cycle? It seems pretty far fetched to me.
My take: Salazar should let Sal Pace give it a go.
Indiana Rep. Barron Hill won his first two terms in office, lost to Mike Sodrel in 2004, won his seat back in 2006, and lost again this past year.
of extremely specific trivia. 🙂
Still, it seems highly unlikely that voters would send the same guy back in 2012. No telling how CD-3 will change with redistricting though.
Sodrel lost to Hill in 2002, won in 2004, lost in 2006 and 2008. It was kind of an ongoing battle between two intractable foes, so it stuck in my mind.
Besides, Voyageur beats me out on trivia any day of the week…
Don Brotzman almost fits your criteria. He was first elected to Congress in 1962, then lost his bid for reelection in 1964, and then returned to win back his seat and then another two terms. He lost to Tim Wirth in 1974 and that was it for his congressional career.