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May 11, 2012 12:34 AM UTC

New Big Line

  • 14 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We’ve updated The Big Line for your griping pleasure. Here’s a quick rundown of our thinking behind the Line. After the jump, cast your own vote.

CD-1

Rep. Diana DeGette isn’t going to lose in 2012. That is all.

CD-2

The NRCC punked Sen. Kevin Lundberg, but can Eric Weissmann garner enough support to win a primary?

CD-3

This seat remains the most likely of Colorado’s 7 seats to change hands in November. Rep. Sal Pace continues to raise big money, and while incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton has picked up his fundraising, he keeps getting his shoelaces stuck in his teeth.

CD-4

The DCCC didn’t include Sen. Brandon Shaffer on its “Red to Blue” list, and his fundraising is declining. This one is probably in the bag for incumbent Rep. Cory Gardner.

CD-5

We could be on the verge of a big upset in Colorado Springs. Robert Blaha is gaining more and more attention, and he appears to have the personal funds to wage a strong campaign. Meanwhile, incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn continues his efforts at trying to be the least-relevant member of Congress. If the primary were still in August, we’d say Lamborn is probably safe because he’d have time to push back against Blaha. But with the primary in June, Blaha may have timed his rise just right.

CD-6

After an awful first six months of campaigning, Democrat Joe Miklosi seems to have at least righted the ship. It may be too little, too late to defeat incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman, who is raising money like he’s the top target in the country.

CD-7

Initial reports of Republican Joe “Not a Beer” Coors’ fundraising were impressive…until it was revealed that most of that money came out of his own personal bank account. Incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter is as good a campaigner as there is in Colorado, and Coors isn’t going to come close with silly stuff like that “I’m not a beer” radio ad.

State Senate/House

We’ll stick these together because the reasoning is pretty much the same: Republicans had such a terrible legislative session that it’s hard to see what they will run on in November — and how they will deflect strong attacks as well.

Which Line Do You Think is Most Accurate?

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14 thoughts on “New Big Line”

  1. I wonder what the impact of the Obama campaign’s huge effort here in CO will have on these Congressional races.  I continue to be amazed at the number of paid staff flowing into the state for the Obama campaign, each of whom is working twelve-plus hour days.  That much effort has to have a big effect on down-ticket races.

    Thoughts?

    1. I worked on a campaign last time. OFA pulled all the volunteers, effort, money and time available. Other races got the shaft.

      It does have a big effect on down-ticket races, and it’s all bad.

      1. The national campaigns bring in young, out of state hotshots to head up the effort for the top office (president in presidential years, senator in non-presidential years.) These folks are veterans of other big campaigns from around the country in previous election cycles.  They could care less about the down ticket races.  They tend to try to suck the life blood out of other campaigns for the benefit of the one race they were hired to win.

        To muddy the waters even more, you have Americans’ recent love of divided government… president of one party, and at least one House of Congress of the other party.  I can’t see either Obama or Romney getting both halves of Congress in 2012.  People do not trust either political party.

        Throw in Super PACS to really mess up the process!  Progressive Super PACS will paint Obama as more liberal than he cares to be seen as, while right wing Super PACS will make Romey look more conservative than he ever imagined he was.  By November, the handlers for both presidential candidates will be cringing whenever a “favorable” Super PAC ad runs.

        Down ticket candidates better have their own strong organizations, because the fallout, or coat tails, at the top of the ticket is too unpredictable.

        1. but historic trends generally show that the power out of power does better in non-presidential elections.

          People who only vote in presidential elections will tend to vote party line so you get increased participation and the down ticket races usually get some kind of bump.

          1. I was thinking that the big OFA push, first in voter registration and then in GOTV, would have a positive effect on the down-ticket races.  I’m particularly hopeful for this in the Miklosi/Coffman CD6 race.

            1. because they manage to get “Government should control your reproductive organs” initiatives on every ballot.  They can’t find that many extra votes for presidential elections because their base tends to already vote in every election.

        2. Very, very bright folks. But their faces are always in their laptops or cell phones; they have no idea whether they’re in Denver, Davenport or Dover, and it’s all data, data, data. I’m not sure they even care if they’re working for the Pros or the Cons. But, hey, they’re doing a heck of a job. (Speaking of OFA. Have no idea about the Con bunch.)

  3. Tipton has a lot of baggage from his first term to carry around but is still the incumbent in a red district.

    Pace has a reasonable shot of taking down Tipton but needs to demonstrate that he can put together an effective field organization for a national office.

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